Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [3][6] Core Views - Xiaomi Group achieved record high revenue and profit in Q1 2025, with total revenue of 111.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.4%, and adjusted net profit of 10.7 billion yuan, up 64.5% year-on-year [1][3] - The smartphone segment regained the top market share in China, with a global shipment of 41.8 million units, a 3% increase year-on-year, and a global market share of 14.1% [1][3] - The IoT business is focusing on high-end and international expansion, with revenue reaching 32.3 billion yuan and a gross margin of 25.2% in Q1 2025 [2][3] - The automotive segment reported revenue of 18.6 billion yuan, with the new SUV model YU7 expected to become a bestseller upon pricing announcement [2][3] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Xiaomi Group are 486.7 billion yuan in 2025, 634.5 billion yuan in 2026, and 764.8 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 33%, 30%, and 21% respectively [3][5] - Adjusted net profit for the main consumer electronics business is expected to be 41.9 billion yuan in 2025, 52.0 billion yuan in 2026, and 61.1 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 25%, 24%, and 18% respectively [3][5] - The report anticipates a significant increase in automotive adjusted net profit, projecting a turnaround to 10.1 billion yuan in 2026 and 20.6 billion yuan in 2027 [3][5] Key Financial Metrics - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including revenue, adjusted net profit, and earnings per share (EPS) for the years 2023 to 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5][13] - The expected adjusted EPS is projected to be 1.6 yuan in 2025, 2.4 yuan in 2026, and 3.1 yuan in 2027 [3][5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 29 in 2025 to 15 in 2027, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [3][7]. Core Views - Xiaomi is advancing its high-end and international strategies, with smartphone shipments reaching 41.8 million units globally in Q1 2025, a 3% year-on-year increase, capturing a 14% global market share [1]. - In the domestic market, Xiaomi regained the top position with a 19% market share, achieving a 40% year-on-year growth in shipments [1]. - The IoT business is expected to see significant revenue growth driven by high-end products and international expansion, with plans to establish 10,000 Xiaomi Home stores overseas by 2029 [1]. - The automotive segment shows promising growth, with the SU7 Ultra model receiving over 10,000 orders within three days of its launch [2]. - Xiaomi has also launched its first open-source inference model, "Xiaomi MiMo," which outperformed competitors in public tests, indicating a strong position in AI hardware technology [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at CNY 488.6 billion, CNY 643.3 billion, and CNY 792.4 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 34%, 32%, and 23% respectively [3][5]. - Adjusted net profit for the consumer electronics segment is forecasted to be CNY 39 billion, CNY 49.6 billion, and CNY 59.1 billion for the same period, with growth rates of 17%, 27%, and 19% [3][5]. - The automotive segment is expected to contribute adjusted net profits of CNY 15 billion, CNY 100 billion, and CNY 173 billion from 2025 to 2027 [3]. - The report sets a target price of HKD 60 for Xiaomi Group based on a P/E ratio of 20x for 2026 estimates [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [3][7]. Core Views - Xiaomi's smartphone market share has returned to first place in China, with a global shipment of 41.8 million units in Q1 2025, representing a 3% year-on-year growth and a global market share of 14% [1]. - The company is advancing its IoT business with a focus on high-end products and international expansion, aiming to establish 10,000 Xiaomi Home stores overseas by 2029 [1]. - The automotive segment shows promising growth, with the SU7 Ultra model achieving over 10,000 orders within three days of its launch, and the company expects to meet or exceed its annual delivery target of 350,000 vehicles in 2025 [2]. - Xiaomi has launched its first open-source inference model, "Xiaomi MiMo," which outperformed competitors in public testing, indicating a strong potential for AI hardware integration in its products [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at CNY 488.6 billion, CNY 643.3 billion, and CNY 792.4 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 34%, 32%, and 23% respectively [3][5]. - Adjusted net profit for the consumer electronics segment is projected to be CNY 390 billion, CNY 496 billion, and CNY 591 billion for the same period, with growth rates of 17%, 27%, and 19% respectively [3][5]. - The automotive segment is expected to contribute adjusted net profits of CNY 15 billion, CNY 100 billion, and CNY 173 billion from 2025 to 2027 [3]. Key Financial Metrics - The report forecasts a non-GAAP EPS of CNY 1.6, CNY 2.4, and CNY 3.1 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][14]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 29 in 2025 to 15 in 2027, indicating a potential increase in valuation as earnings grow [5][14]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 21.9% in 2025 to 23.5% in 2027, reflecting enhanced profitability across segments [14].

3）个股来看：近 2 周，智能家居指数中，涨幅前五个股分别为翱捷科 技（+50.36%）、芯原股份（+33.80%）、江苏雷利（+31.64%）、兆威 机电（+24.82%）、捷昌驱动（+24.20%）。 行业政策跟踪 1）市场监管总局（国家标准委）批准发布《智能床》国家标准。2） 市场监管总局等五部门发布《优化消费环境三年行动方案（2025— 2027 年）》。 [Table_Main] 行业研究|可选消费|耐用消费品与服装 证券研究报告 耐用消费品与服装行业周报、月报 2025 年 03 月 02 日 巨头借力 [Table_Title] DeepSeek，竞推"AI+"新品 ——智能家居行业双周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 行情回顾 1）双周行情：近 2 周（2025.02.17-2025.02.28）上证综指下跌 0.77%， 深证成指下跌 1.29%，创业板指下跌 2.03%；智能家居指数 （399996.SZ）上升 0.34%，跑赢上证综指 1.12pct，跑赢深证成指 1.63pct，跑赢创业板指 2.37pct。 2）细分板块：近 2 周，智能家居指数中，电子元器件及零部件、 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The recent launch of the SU7 Ultra and 15 Ultra marks a significant milestone in the company's high-end strategy [7] - The SU7 Ultra is positioned as a high-performance electric vehicle, aiming to redefine luxury standards in the automotive market [7] - The pricing strategy for the SU7 Ultra is aggressive, with a standard version priced at 529,900 RMB, which is competitive compared to other high-performance electric vehicles [7] - The company aims to leverage its advancements in AIoT and mobile technology to enhance its product offerings and market position [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections show a decline from 280,044 million RMB in 2022 to 270,970 million RMB in 2023, followed by a significant increase to 353,967 million RMB in 2024E, and further growth to 497,949 million RMB by 2026E [3][9] - The net profit is expected to rise from 8,490 million RMB in 2022 to 19,274 million RMB in 2023, reaching 36,744 million RMB by 2026E [3][9] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.34 RMB in 2022 to 1.45 RMB in 2026E [3][9] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 141 in 2022 to 33 in 2026E, indicating improved valuation over time [3][9]