| 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) 110 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) 3880 | 8446 6315 | 99908 | 508 | | 现货市场 | 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 山东沂源苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, | | | 0 | | | 0 | 4 | 2.3 | | | | 元/斤) 元/斤) 陕西洛川苹果现货价格(纸袋70#以上半 山东烟台栖霞现货价格(纸袋80#以上一 | | | | | | 0 | 4 | 3.7 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 商品)(日,元/斤) 全国:苹果产量(年,万吨) 168.34 二级果农货)(日,元/斤) | 5128.51 | | | | 产业情况 | 批发价:苹果(周,元/公斤) -0.06 平均批发价:富士苹果(周,元/公斤) | 9.7 | 9.35 | -0.03 | | | 全国苹果冷库总库存(周,万吨) -4.59 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The market has a relatively high expectation for the opening price of late - maturing Fuji apples, providing a certain support at the bottom. It is recommended to mainly take short - long positions [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 8288 yuan/ton; the main contract holding volume is 87189 hands, a decrease of 6698 hands; the net buying volume of the top 20 futures holdings is 700 hands, an increase of 348 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bag 75 and above), Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bag 75 and above), Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bag 70 and above semi - commercial), and Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bag 80 and above first - grade secondary fruit farmers' goods) are 4 yuan/jin, 2.3 yuan/jin, 4 yuan/jin, and 3.7 yuan/jin respectively, with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple annual output is 5128.51 million tons; the weekly average wholesale price of apples is 9.7 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg; the weekly average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.35 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the national apple cold - storage total inventory is 16.32 million tons, a decrease of 4.59 million tons; the Shandong apple storage capacity ratio is 0.04, a decrease of 0.01; the Shaanxi apple storage capacity ratio is 0; the monthly apple export volume is 70000 tons, an increase of 20000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly export amount of apples is 6973.9 million US dollars, a decrease of 153306.5 million US dollars; the monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1589295.5 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag apple 80 storage merchants is 0.3 yuan/jin, with no change [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 8.09 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.65 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.56 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.72 yuan/kg; the weekly average daily early - morning arrival vehicle volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 16.2 vehicles, an increase of 4.2 vehicles; the weekly average daily early - morning arrival vehicle volume at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 20.2 vehicles; the weekly average daily early - morning arrival vehicle volume at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 31.8 vehicles, an increase of 6.24 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 22.24%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.21%, an increase of 0.09% [2] Industry News - The trading of early - maturing Fuji in the western region has basically ended. Affected by rainfall, the bag - removing of late - maturing Fuji in many places such as Yan'an and Weinan has been postponed. There are sporadic orders from merchants, and the price is not much different from that of early - maturing Fuji. The trading of Hongjiangjun in the Shandong production area is coming to an end, and the transaction price fluctuates and adjusts due to the volume of goods on the market. The transaction price range of Hongjiangjun in the new - season Shandong is large due to quality issues, and the price advantage of poor - quality goods is relatively obvious [2] Viewpoint Summary - The double - festival stocking is progressing gradually. The bag - removing of late - maturing Fuji is sporadic, and the rainfall in the western region may postpone the large - scale bag - removing time of late - maturing Fuji. As of September 17, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the national main production areas is 16.32 million tons, a decrease of 4.59 million tons from last week. Affected by the trading of medium - maturing varieties, the inventory shipment speed in the Shandong production area has slowed down. The storage capacity ratio in the Shandong production area is 3.51%, a decrease of 0.82% from last week. The de - stocking speed in the Shandong production area has slowed down. Local small merchants tend to choose Hongjiangjun with lower prices. The price of high - quality goods in the warehouse is relatively stable, while the price of fruit farmers' goods is weak [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [3][18] 2) Core Viewpoints - The market is in a complex situation of dual - festival stocking and the alternation of new and old seasons. The delay in the listing of new - season late - Fuji apples and the differentiation of inventory quality are the main market contradictions. The scarcity of high - quality goods supports the bottom price of the spot, but weak trading restricts the upward space. The futures market maintains a volatile pattern under the influence of multiple and short factors. It is recommended to hold long positions in AP2601 [3]. - As the weather turns cooler, the supply of seasonal fruits decreases, and the demand for Mid - Autumn and National Day gift boxes boosts the apple consumption market. The purchasing enthusiasm of merchants increases, and the sales speed accelerates. The acquisition price of late - maturing Fuji may benefit from the high opening price of early - and mid - maturing apples and festival consumption expectations. It is necessary to focus on the climate impact on the high - quality fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji and the opening price dynamics from late September to early October. It is recommended to hold long positions in AP2601 [18]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Production Areas - **Shandong**: The price of inventory paper - bagged late - Fuji apples (80 and above, slice - red, first - and second - grade) is 3.00 - 4.00 yuan/jin; the price of paper - bagged late - Fuji apples (80 and above, slice - red, general goods) is 2.50 - 3.00 yuan/jin; the price of inventory striped late - Fuji apples (80 and above, first - and second - grade) is 3.50 - 4.50 yuan/jin. The price of cream generals (75 and above) is 1.50 - 1.80 yuan/jin, and the e - commerce procurement enthusiasm is fair [6]. - **Shaanxi**: The price of paper - bagged early - Fuji apples (70 and above, semi - commercial) is 4.50 - 4.85 yuan/jin, and the price of general goods is 3.50 - 3.60 yuan/jin [6]. Apple Inventory As of September 12, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of the country was 20.91 tons, a decrease of 6.44 tons compared with the previous week, and the sales speed slowed down compared with the previous week. As of September 17, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased by 4.59 tons to 16.32 tons week - on - week, reflecting the digestion effect of holiday demand on inventory [3][8]. Downstream Sales Areas In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of trucks arriving in the morning has decreased week - on - week, with an average of about 51 trucks per week. The number of arriving trucks has increased slightly compared with the previous off - season. The market is still dominated by Fuji apples, with an increase in early - maturing Gala apples. The sales of early - maturing apples are fair, but the profits of merchants are average. The terminal sales speed is not fast, the digestion speed of high - quality goods is fair, and the digestion of poor - quality goods is slow. Seasonal fruits impact the apple market sales, the number of arriving trucks in the market is still at a low level, the terminal digestion has slowed down slightly, and second - and third - level wholesalers maintain on - demand purchases [11]. Other Fruit Prices As of the 23rd week of 2025, the average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 8.04 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.25 yuan/kg. Among them, the average wholesale prices of Kyoho grapes, Fuji apples, Ya pears, and pineapples increased by 1.51 yuan/kg, 0.29 yuan/kg, 0.03 yuan/kg, and 0.05 yuan/kg respectively compared with the 22nd week. The average wholesale prices of bananas and watermelons decreased by 0.03 yuan/kg and 0.34 yuan/kg respectively compared with the 22nd week [14].