研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 03 月 04 日 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作目价 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日价 | 涨跌 | | 格 | | | | | | す | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 107.22 | 107.52 | -0.30 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.97 | 7.97 | 0.00 | | 期货价格 | | | | | | | ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 03 月 03 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作目仪 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作目价 | 涨跌 | | 格 | | | | | | 格 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 107.22 | 107.52 | -0.30 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.97 | 7.83 | 0.14 | | 期货价格 | | | | | | | ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 02 月 24 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日份 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日价 | 涨跌 | | 格 | | | | | | 格 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 107.22 | 107.52 | -0.30 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 8.10 | 7.98 | 0.12 | | 期货价格 | | | | | | | ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the content Group 2: Core View - The market has reached a consensus on the low inventory and poor quality of apples in cold storage this year. The point of divergence lies in the demand situation. The pre - Spring Festival market restocking was okay, with the apple outbound volume from cold storage at a medium level compared to the same period in previous years, causing the year - on - year decline in recent cold storage inventory data to widen again. The apple warehouse receipt cost this season is high, around 9700 - 10000 yuan/ton. As the March contract will enter the delivery period after the Spring Festival, the market may trade on the warehouse receipt cost issue, so it is expected that the price of the May contract will remain in a short - term upward trend [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The Fuji apple price index is 107.22, down 0.30 from the next working day. Prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 remain unchanged. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.98 yuan, up 0.01 from the next working day [2] - **Futures Prices**: AP01 is at 8209, up 56 from yesterday's close; AP05 is at 9739, up 138; AP10 is at 8318, up 60. The spreads between different contracts also show corresponding changes [2] - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples against different futures contracts shows a downward trend [2] Second Part: Market News and Views - **Market News**: As of February 4, 2026, the inventory of apples in cold storage in major producing areas across the country is 619.81 million tons, a decrease of 34.25 million tons compared to last week, with the destocking speed accelerating compared to the previous week and higher than the same period last year. In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The import volume was 3100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.31% and a year - on - year increase of 20.02%. The annual cumulative import volume in 2025 was 116,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.72%. The mainstream prices of apples in the production areas are stable, with the cold storage packaging in Shandong nearing completion and more cold storages in the northwest region still packaging and shipping [7] - **Trading Logic**: Due to low cold - storage inventory, poor apple quality, and high warehouse - receipt costs, the price of the May contract is expected to remain strong in the short term [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the May contract on dips, go short on the October contract on rallies; conduct a long - May and short - October arbitrage; and it is recommended to wait and see for options [8] Third Part: Related Attachments - The content includes multiple charts such as the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70 apples, the basis of AP contracts, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrival volumes in certain markets, 6 - fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple outbound volume [10][11][18]

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 02 月 09 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日价 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日价 | 涨跌 | | 格 | | | | | | 格 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 107.22 | 107.52 | -0.30 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.99 | 7.93 | 0.06 | | 期货价格 | | | | | | | ...

苹果周报：出库速度较快 果价有支撑 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 第一部分 逻辑分析及交易策略 内容摘要 137/137/137 246/206/207 ◼ 交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 现货分析 ◼ 供给分析 ◼ 需求分析 苹果现货分析 栖霞一二级纸袋80#（元/斤） 洛川半商品纸袋70#（元/斤） 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1-1 1-14 1-27 2-9 2-22 3-7 3-20 4-2 4-15 4-28 5-11 5-24 6-6 6-19 7-2 7-15 7-28 8-10 8-23 9-5 9-18 10-1 10-14 10-27 11-9 11-22 12-5 12-18 12-31 栖霞一、二级纸袋80# 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 ...

苹果周报：临近春节备货 苹果出库加快 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 第一部分 逻辑分析及交易策略 内容摘要 ◼ 交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 基 础 色 208/218/234 ◼ 现货分析 ◼ 供给分析 ◼ 需求分析 苹果现货分析 221/221/221 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1-1 1-14 1-27 2-9 2-22 3-7 3-20 4-2 4-15 4-28 5-11 5-24 6-6 6-19 7-2 7-15 7-28 8-10 8-23 9-5 9-18 10-1 10-14 10-27 11-9 11-22 12-5 12-18 12-31 栖霞一、二级纸袋80# 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 栖霞一二级纸袋80#（元/斤） 洛 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 农产品日报 2024 年 01 月 21 日 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日价 相 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作目仪 格 | 涨跌 | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 109.79 | 109.13 | 0.66 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.80 | 7.92 | -0.12 | | 期货价格 | | | | | | | | | 指标 | रु दि | ...

Report Title - Apple Weekly Report: Slight Increase in Demand, Faster Apple Outbound [1] Core Viewpoint - This season's apple warehouse receipt cost is high due to low premium fruit rate, strongly supporting the apple futures price. Although the current cold - storage apple outbound volume is lower than the same period last year, the Spring Festival is postponed this year, so the peak sales season is also delayed, and the current demand is acceptable. With low cold - storage inventory, if the outbound volume remains normal, the later apple supply will be tight. If the apple demand maintains a normal state, the price of the May contract is likely to rise [14]. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Directory 1. Spot Analysis - **Market Situation**: This week, the number of inquiring merchants in late - Fuji apple production areas slightly increased, with different trading atmospheres in each area. The outbound of fruit farmers' goods was concentrated in Gansu and Liaoning. Most merchants packed their self - stored goods, and the trading of fruit farmers' goods focused on low - priced products. The overall shipment volume was small, and the price was stable or slightly weak. In the sales areas, the transaction was still sluggish, with reduced arrivals and increased pressure on sales and inventory in transit warehouses [6]. - **Main Production Area Prices**: In Shandong, the cold - storage trading was cold, with limited overall transfer volume. In Shaanxi, the inventory reduction speed was slightly faster than last week but still lower than the same period last year. The prices in different regions varied, such as in Penglai, 65 - 70 general goods were 2.0 - 2.2 yuan/jin, and in Luochuan, 70 above semi - commercial fruit farmers' goods were 4.0 - 4.3 yuan/jin [6]. 2. Supply Analysis - **Inventory Monitoring**: As of January 8, 2026, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 51.13%, 4.92 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In two weeks (December 25, 2025 - January 8, 2026), the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.18 percentage points, and the inventory reduction rate was 8.48%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 52.54%, with a 1.53 - percentage - point decrease in two weeks. In Shaanxi, it was 49.18%, with a 2.56 - percentage - point decrease. In Gansu, it was 51.87%, with a 3.88 - percentage - point decrease [9]. - **Steel Union Data**: As of January 7, 2026, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main national production areas was 720.90 million tons, a decrease of 12.66 million tons from last week, and the inventory reduction speed was slightly faster than last week but still lower than the same period last year [9]. 3. Demand Analysis - **Market Conditions in Guangdong**: In the Chalong market in Guangdong, the number of morning arrival vehicles decreased compared with last week. The market consumption was average, with reduced downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and there was pressure on daily digestion of arrival vehicles. The inventory in transit warehouses increased, and high - quality Gansu goods were the main ones sold [12]. - **Substitute Prices**: According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on December 18, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits was 7.66 yuan/kg, slightly higher than last Friday, at a high level in recent years [12]. - **Profit Situation**: During the acquisition stage of the 2025 - 2026 production season, the profit statistics of storage merchants for 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia were suspended [12]. 4. Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: High apple warehouse receipt costs support the futures price. Although the current cold - storage apple outbound volume is lower than last year, considering the postponed Spring Festival, the demand is acceptable. With low cold - storage inventory, if the normal outbound volume is maintained, the later supply will be tight. Pay attention to the cold - storage apple outbound situation. If the demand remains normal, the May contract price is likely to rise [14]. - **Specific Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Hold long positions in the May contract and short the October contract on rallies [14]. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the May contract and short the October contract [14]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [14]. 5. Weekly Data Tracking - **Apple Supply and Demand**: Not elaborated in detail in the provided text, only relevant data charts of apple export, planting area, and consumption are presented [17][18] - **Inventory and Outbound**: Data on national and regional cold - storage inventory and outbound volume are presented in charts, showing the trends over different weeks [20][21] - **Price Difference and Basis**: Charts show the trends of 1 - 5, 5 - 10, 10 - 1 price differences and 1 - month, 5 - month, 10 - month basis over different time periods [25][26]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Agricultural Products R & D Report - Apple Daily [1] - Date: January 5, 2024 [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji Apple Price Index: 109.01 today, 108.70 next working day, up 0.31 [2] - 6 Kinds of Fruit Average Wholesale Price: 7.93 today, 7.92 next working day, up 0.01 [2] Futures Prices - AP01: 10100 today, 9950 yesterday, up 150 [2] - AP05: 9547 today, 9120 yesterday, up 427 [2] - AP10: 8450 today, 8116 yesterday, up 334 [2] Spreads - AP01 - AP05: -277 change [2] - AP05 - AP10: 93 change [2] - AP10 - AP01: 184 change [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Trading Logic - This year's apple production decreased, good - fruit rate is poor, storage is difficult, and cold - storage inventory data is low. Cold - storage apple inventory peak is at a low level in the same period over the years, and apple quality is relatively poor, so the effective inventory is likely to be low, and the apple fundamentals are strong. Although the recent market sales are average and the futures market is technically weak, considering the production problem, the downward space is relatively limited [5] Market Data - As of December 24, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 7.4404 million tons, a decrease of 89,400 tons from last week, and the de - stocking speed is lower than the same period last year [7] - In November 2025, the fresh apple import volume was 0.25 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.19% and a year - on - year increase of 48.76%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 113,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.71%. In November 2025, the fresh apple export volume was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42% [7] - Apple prices in the producing areas are stable. The number of cold - storage buyers has increased, and the trading volume has increased. Buyers mainly purchase high - quality and low - price apples, and medium - quality apples with high defect rates from farmers have few transactions. Traders in the northwest producing areas mainly pack their self - stored goods. The market arrivals are stable, the sales are stable, and the prices are stable [7] - The price of late - maturing paper - bag Fuji in Baishui County, Weinan, Shaanxi is stable. The mainstream price of 70 farmer - produced apples is 3.0 - 3.3 yuan per catty, and most transactions are concentrated at 3.2 yuan per catty. The price of trader - sourced apples is about 4.2 yuan per catty. The recent sales are good, and the buyers' enthusiasm has increased [7] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Expected to fluctuate in a short - term range [8] - Arbitrage: Long AP05 and short AP10 [8] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figures include prices of different apple varieties, AP contract basis, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrivals in some markets, 6 - kind fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory and出库量 [11][13][18][20][23]