Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The apple market is expected to continue the polarization trend in the short term, with high - quality goods remaining stable and firm, and ordinary goods remaining stable but weak. The apple market maintains a pattern of being stronger in the west and stable in the east, and high - quality goods are in short supply. The inventory removal speed has accelerated. It is expected that the apple futures price will still have room to rise after a short - term adjustment [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 10,121 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3. The main contract's open interest is 91,016 lots, with an increase of 802. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 4,858 lots, with an increase of 1,713 [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.2 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - second - grade fruit farmer's goods) is 4.3 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80 first - grade goods) is 4 yuan/jin [2]. Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons. The apple orchard area in the whole country is 1,955.77 thousand hectares, with a decrease of 19.58. The fruit wholesale price of apples is 9.37 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.52 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.15. The apple storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi is 0.39, with a decrease of 0.03; in Shandong is 0.4, with a decrease of 0.02. The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 499.72 million tons, with a decrease of 27.81 million tons. The monthly export volume of apples is 160,000 tons, with an increase of 40,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The year - on - year monthly export amount of apples increased by 14.5%. The monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,775,355 million US dollars, with an increase of 657,409 million US dollars. The weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples is 0.35 yuan/jin, with an increase of 0.05 [2]. Downstream Situation - The fruit wholesale price of pears is 6.64 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.03; bananas is 6.57 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.05; watermelons is 6.51 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.24. The average daily early - morning arrival vehicle volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 12.8 vehicles, with an increase of 3.2; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 18.4 vehicles, with an increase of 6; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 24 vehicles, with an increase of 5.6 [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 35.79%, with an increase of 0.79; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 35.79%, with an increase of 0.79 [2]. Suggestions - Pay attention to the cold - storage inventory data on Thursday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of apple futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling last week, with a significant overall increase and reaching a new high in this round of rise [7][14][64] - The new - season apple production and quality have declined, and the low inventory strongly supports the price. There is a supply gap for high - quality apples, and with the improvement of demand, the apple price is stable and slightly firm. The apple market is expected to continue the polarization pattern, and the apple futures price may maintain a volatile and upward trend in the short term [8][64] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Futures Price - The main contract of apple futures AP2605 rose first and then fell last week, with an overall significant increase. As of the afternoon close on March 6, 2026, the apple 2605 contract was reported at 10,316 yuan/ton, up 556 yuan/ton or 5.7% for the week [6][14] 3.1.2 Spot Price - **Shandong**: In Shandong, the number of merchants inspecting goods in cold storage was fair. In Qixia, replenishment was mainly for general common - grade goods, with limited transactions. In Penglai, third - grade goods were mainly traded, and some merchants sought high - quality goods. The price of 75 first - and second - grade fruit farmers' goods in Penglai was around 2.8 - 3.6 yuan/jin, 80 first - and second - grade was 3.5 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and third - grade fruit was 1.3 - 2.5 yuan/jin. In Qixia, the price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji slice - red fruit farmers' goods was 3.2 - 4.5 yuan/jin, 75 common - grade goods was 2.2 - 2.5 yuan/jin, and 65 - 70 small fruits was 1.7 - 2 yuan/jin [20] - **Shaanxi**: In Shaanxi, the number of merchants increased, and some moved from Gansu to Shaanxi to find high - quality goods. In Yan'an, high - quality goods were slightly firmer, but overall transactions were average. In Baishui and Xianyang, e - commerce purchases increased, and transactions were mainly for low - price goods. The price of over 70 semi - commercial fruit farmers' goods in Luochuan was around 4.0 - 4.4 yuan/jin, over 70 common - grade goods was around 3.5 - 4 yuan/jin, and high - grade inferior goods was around 2.2 yuan/jin. In Baishui, the price of 75 starting high - quality common - grade fruit farmers' goods was about 2.8 - 3.0 yuan/jin [25] 3.2 Production Area Situation - On March 7, 2026, the overall apple market in production areas was light. Western buyers continued to pick high - quality goods, and as high - quality goods decreased, some turned to Shandong to pick high - quality first - and second - grade goods. The demand for high - quality goods remained strong, while the trading of general and poor - quality goods was relatively cold, and the price of poor - quality goods declined in some areas [27] - **Shandong**: In Qixia, the inventory apple trading was limited. Some speculators bought first - and second - grade high - quality goods, and the transaction was based on quality. The price of 80 first - and second - grade inventory paper - bag Fuji was 3.30 - 4.30 yuan/jin, 80 above merchants' third - grade fruit was 1.80 - 2.40 yuan/jin, and 75 first - and second - grade inventory Fuji was about 2.80 yuan/jin. In Yiyuan, the inventory Fuji trading was light, with limited merchant enthusiasm and slow sales. The price of high - quality common - grade 75 above inventory paper - bag late Fuji was 2.50 - 2.60 yuan/jin, and general common - grade 75 above was 1.80 - 2.30 yuan/jin [27] - **Shaanxi**: In Luochuan, the inventory Fuji trading volume was small. Downstream traders restocked as needed, with good demand for high - quality goods and little trading of poor - quality goods. The price of over 70 semi - commercial inventory paper - bag late Fuji was 4.10 - 4.30 yuan/jin, and over 70 common - grade was 3.40 - 3.60 yuan/jin. In Weinan, the inventory Fuji trading volume was small, with uneven quality and chaotic prices, and slow sales. The price of 75 starting high - quality common - grade inventory paper - bag Fuji was 2.20 - 2.80 yuan/jin [28] - **Shanxi**: In Yuncheng Linyi, the inventory Fuji trading was average. The remaining volume of film - bag apples was small, and the sales of paper - plus - film apples were stable. Merchants picked high - quality goods, and the price was stable. The price of over 75 inventory film - bag late Fuji was 1.40 - 1.50 yuan/jin, and over 80 paper - plus - film late Fuji was 2.00 - 2.60 yuan/jin [28] - **Gansu**: In Jingning, the trading did not change significantly. Inventory holders mainly shipped their own inventory, and a few picked high - quality fruit farmers' goods. The price of high - quality goods was stable, and that of general and poor - quality goods was stable but weak. The price of 75 starting commercial fruit of inventory paper - bag late Fuji in Renda Town was 5.00 - 5.50 yuan/jin, and common - grade was 4.00 - 4.60 yuan/jin [28] 3.3 Inventory Situation - The peak cold - storage storage volume of late Fuji this season was 7.6675 million tons, the lowest in the past five years. As of March 4, 2026, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main production areas across the country was 5.2753 million tons, a decrease of 253,900 tons from the previous week, and the de - stocking speed was faster than the previous week [39] - **Shandong**: The storage capacity ratio in Shandong last week was 41.56%, a decrease of 1.45% from the previous week. The number of merchants inspecting goods in cold storage was fair, and replenishment was mainly for general common - grade goods [39] - **Shaanxi**: The storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi last week was 41.75%, a decrease of 2.13% from the previous week. The number of merchants increased, and some moved from Gansu to Shaanxi to find high - quality goods [39] - **Other Areas**: The storage capacity ratio in Gansu last week was 29.58%, a decrease of 2.54% from the previous week. Merchants in Gansu were more enthusiastic about high - quality goods, and the price of high - quality goods rose. The storage capacity ratio in Shanxi was 27.86%, a decrease of 1.53% from the previous week. Merchants in Shanxi gradually shifted from seeking film - bag apples to paper - plus - film apples. The storage capacity ratio in Liaoning was 46.90%, a decrease of 1.94% from the previous week. Merchants mainly replenished general common - grade fruit farmers' goods [39][40] 3.4 Sales Area Situation - The number of early - morning arriving trucks at the Guangdong Chalong market last week slightly increased compared with the first week after the Spring Festival. Actual transactions were based on quality. Currently, the number of arriving trucks in the market is small, the backlog in the transfer warehouse is not serious, the purchasing willingness of second - and third - level wholesalers is low, the market is relatively cold, and the selling prices are chaotic [45] 3.5 Apple Storage Profit Analysis - The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants in Qixia last week was about 0.3 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week [50] 3.6 Key Fruit Market - As of the 10th week of 2026, the average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 7.93 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg from the 9th week. Among the six kinds of fruits, the average wholesale prices of Kyoho grapes, bananas, and Ya pears increased by 0.40 yuan/kg, 0.06 yuan/kg, and 0.01 yuan/kg respectively compared with the 9th week. The average wholesale prices of watermelons and pineapples decreased by 0.47 yuan/kg and 0.45 yuan/kg respectively compared with the 9th week. The average wholesale price of Fuji apples remained the same as the previous week [54] 3.7 Export Situation - According to customs data, the export volume of fresh apples in December 2025 was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. Affected by the Christmas and New Year's Day festivals, the export volume increased significantly in December. Seasonally, the fourth quarter and the first quarter of the following year are the peak seasons for apple exports. It is expected that the export volume of fresh apples in the first quarter of 2026 will increase month - on - month, which is beneficial to the recovery of apple demand [59] 3.8 Production Statistics - According to Steel Union data, the domestic apple production in 2025 was 3.43142 million tons, a decrease of 6.01% from the previous year. The production in Shaanxi, Shandong, and Gansu decreased by 6.97%, 16.54%, and 4.45% respectively, while that in Henan, Shanxi, and Liaoning increased by 9%, 11%, and 3% respectively [61][63] 3.9 Market Outlook - The main contract of apple futures rose first and then fell last week, with a significant overall increase. The shipping situation in apple production areas last week varied, with a stronger shipping atmosphere in the west and a weaker one in the east. Western merchants were more enthusiastic about high - quality goods, and the price of high - quality goods in Gansu rose. The shipping of general and lower - quality common - grade fruit farmers' goods was average, and merchants' purchasing enthusiasm for this kind of goods was low. The overall shipping in Shandong was average, and transactions were mainly for low - price goods. In the sales areas, the overall post - festival sales were stable, but the arrival volume decreased, and the shipping slowed down. Overall, the decline in new - season apple production and quality and the low inventory strongly support the price. There is a supply gap for high - quality apples, and with the improvement of demand, the apple price is stable and slightly firm. As cold - storage apples enter the middle and late stages of sales, the apple market is expected to continue the polarization pattern. The apple futures price may maintain a volatile and upward trend in the short term. Next week, attention should be paid to the market trading atmosphere, merchants' replenishment situation, the trading situation of substitute fruits, and the weather in the main production areas [64] 3.10 Operation Strategy - **Viewpoint**: The main contract of apple futures may maintain a volatile and upward trend in the short term [9][65] - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider buying on dips; for arbitrage, consider buying the 2605 contract and selling the 2610 contract for positive arbitrage; for options, consider buying out - of - the - money put options at an appropriate time [10][66]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [3][18] 2) Core Viewpoints - The market is in a complex situation of dual - festival stocking and the alternation of new and old seasons. The delay in the listing of new - season late - Fuji apples and the differentiation of inventory quality are the main market contradictions. The scarcity of high - quality goods supports the bottom price of the spot, but weak trading restricts the upward space. The futures market maintains a volatile pattern under the influence of multiple and short factors. It is recommended to hold long positions in AP2601 [3]. - As the weather turns cooler, the supply of seasonal fruits decreases, and the demand for Mid - Autumn and National Day gift boxes boosts the apple consumption market. The purchasing enthusiasm of merchants increases, and the sales speed accelerates. The acquisition price of late - maturing Fuji may benefit from the high opening price of early - and mid - maturing apples and festival consumption expectations. It is necessary to focus on the climate impact on the high - quality fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji and the opening price dynamics from late September to early October. It is recommended to hold long positions in AP2601 [18]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Production Areas - **Shandong**: The price of inventory paper - bagged late - Fuji apples (80 and above, slice - red, first - and second - grade) is 3.00 - 4.00 yuan/jin; the price of paper - bagged late - Fuji apples (80 and above, slice - red, general goods) is 2.50 - 3.00 yuan/jin; the price of inventory striped late - Fuji apples (80 and above, first - and second - grade) is 3.50 - 4.50 yuan/jin. The price of cream generals (75 and above) is 1.50 - 1.80 yuan/jin, and the e - commerce procurement enthusiasm is fair [6]. - **Shaanxi**: The price of paper - bagged early - Fuji apples (70 and above, semi - commercial) is 4.50 - 4.85 yuan/jin, and the price of general goods is 3.50 - 3.60 yuan/jin [6]. Apple Inventory As of September 12, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of the country was 20.91 tons, a decrease of 6.44 tons compared with the previous week, and the sales speed slowed down compared with the previous week. As of September 17, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased by 4.59 tons to 16.32 tons week - on - week, reflecting the digestion effect of holiday demand on inventory [3][8]. Downstream Sales Areas In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of trucks arriving in the morning has decreased week - on - week, with an average of about 51 trucks per week. The number of arriving trucks has increased slightly compared with the previous off - season. The market is still dominated by Fuji apples, with an increase in early - maturing Gala apples. The sales of early - maturing apples are fair, but the profits of merchants are average. The terminal sales speed is not fast, the digestion speed of high - quality goods is fair, and the digestion of poor - quality goods is slow. Seasonal fruits impact the apple market sales, the number of arriving trucks in the market is still at a low level, the terminal digestion has slowed down slightly, and second - and third - level wholesalers maintain on - demand purchases [11]. Other Fruit Prices As of the 23rd week of 2025, the average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 8.04 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.25 yuan/kg. Among them, the average wholesale prices of Kyoho grapes, Fuji apples, Ya pears, and pineapples increased by 1.51 yuan/kg, 0.29 yuan/kg, 0.03 yuan/kg, and 0.05 yuan/kg respectively compared with the 22nd week. The average wholesale prices of bananas and watermelons decreased by 0.03 yuan/kg and 0.34 yuan/kg respectively compared with the 22nd week [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The apple market currently has low inventory and is in the off - season of demand, with general spot sales. The new - season apple production is expected to change little compared to this season. The market supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Apple Spot Analysis - In the western region, there was limited trading of early - maturing apples this week. Paper - bag Gala apples were sporadically on the market, and the trading of paper - bag Qinyang apples was almost finished. In Shandong, the inventory Fuji apples' sales were slightly faster than last week, but overall transactions were still low. The prices of early - maturing apples were weak, and the inventory apples' prices were stable during the week. In the wholesale markets of sales areas, high - quality apples fetched high prices, but the overall sales were still slow. Next week, the supply of early - maturing paper - bag Gala apples will increase, and attention should be paid to their quality and price trends [8]. - In Shandong, the trading atmosphere has not improved significantly. Buyers are not active in purchasing large and high - quality apples and tend to bargain. Most fruit farmers and sellers sell at the market price, and some are eager to sell. The remaining supply in Shandong is mainly in Qixia and Penglai, and the traded apples are mostly low - priced slice - red apples. In Qixia, the prices of 80 first - and second - grade slice - red apples are 3.30 - 4.00 yuan/jin, 80 first - and second - grade striped apples are 3.50 - 4.50 yuan/jin, general apples are 2.80 - 3.30 yuan/jin, and third - grade apples are 2.00 - 2.50 yuan/jin. In Shaanxi, the inventory apples are mainly self - consumed by merchants, with slow sales. The prices of high - quality apples are temporarily stable. In Xianyang, early - maturing Gala apples have problems such as greening and poor coloring due to high temperatures. In Weinan and Tongchuan, rainfall after bag - removal is beneficial for Gala apples' coloring. Currently, a small amount of Gala apples are on the market, with a significant price gap between high - quality and low - quality ones. For example, in Chengcheng, the price of early - maturing paper - bag Gala apples starting from 70 with 30% redness is around 4.2 - 4.3 yuan/jin, and high - quality ones are around 4.5 yuan/jin [8]. 3.2 Supply Analysis - As of August 7, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 3.91%, a decrease of 0.45 percentage points in this period (20250731 - 0806), and 2.93 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The de - stocking rate was 93.86%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 6.48%, a decrease of 0.67 percentage points. The overall cold - storage shipment volume was lower than last week, and the current shipment was mainly concentrated in the main production areas. The number of merchants inspecting goods in cold - storage increased slightly this week, and the transactions also improved, but most of the goods were not sent to the market after the transaction, and the actual shipment volume decreased. The cold - storage shipment speed was lower than last year, mainly affected by the low prices of other seasonal fruits. Cold - storage operators were eager to ship, especially for some lower - quality goods. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 3.58%, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points. There was little remaining inventory in cold - storage, and there was almost no trading in the cold - storage. Merchants shipped their own goods according to market demand. High temperatures and low prices of other fruits significantly impacted the apple demand, and the merchants' shipment volume decreased [13]. - As of August 6, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main production areas of the country was 53.39 tons, a decrease of 8.02 tons compared to last week. The sales speed slowed down slightly compared to last week and was basically the same as last year [13]. 3.3 Demand Analysis - In the Chalong market in Guangdong, the number of early - morning arriving vehicles decreased slightly compared to last week, with an average of about 14.6 vehicles per day. The typhoon and rainy weather this week affected apple consumption. The low prices of seasonal fruits increased their sales, and some spot merchants switched to seasonal fruits, which impacted the apple market sales. The number of arriving vehicles in the market remained at a low level, the terminal consumption slowed down slightly, and second - and third - level wholesalers purchased on demand [16]. - According to the data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits on August 7 was 7 yuan/kg, slightly lower than last Friday, and it was at the median level in recent years [16]. - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of storage operators of 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia was 0.5 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin compared to last week [16]. - The market arrival volume this week continued to be low, slightly increasing compared to last week. The sales were stable, and the prices were stable. The arrival volume in the wholesale market was not much different from last week and generally remained at a low level. Recently, the supply of new - season early - maturing apples in the market increased, and the cold - storage supply decreased. According to Zhuochuang Information, the apple arrival volume in the Guangzhou Chalong market was about 131 vehicles, an increase of 9 vehicles compared to last week. The apple sales speed in the market was stable. High temperatures in many places recently made watermelons and other fruits the mainstream demand in the market, which significantly impacted other fruits. The overall apple demand was weak, and most merchants were not very enthusiastic about operating apples, with a low shipment volume to the market. The mainstream transaction prices in the market remained stable [16]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see [18]. - For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [18]. - For options, it is recommended to wait and see [17].