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苹果周报:早熟嘎啦陆续上市,关注嘎啦价格-20250809
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-09 13:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The apple market currently has low inventory and is in the off - season of demand, with general spot sales. The new - season apple production is expected to change little compared to this season. The market supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Apple Spot Analysis - In the western region, there was limited trading of early - maturing apples this week. Paper - bag Gala apples were sporadically on the market, and the trading of paper - bag Qinyang apples was almost finished. In Shandong, the inventory Fuji apples' sales were slightly faster than last week, but overall transactions were still low. The prices of early - maturing apples were weak, and the inventory apples' prices were stable during the week. In the wholesale markets of sales areas, high - quality apples fetched high prices, but the overall sales were still slow. Next week, the supply of early - maturing paper - bag Gala apples will increase, and attention should be paid to their quality and price trends [8]. - In Shandong, the trading atmosphere has not improved significantly. Buyers are not active in purchasing large and high - quality apples and tend to bargain. Most fruit farmers and sellers sell at the market price, and some are eager to sell. The remaining supply in Shandong is mainly in Qixia and Penglai, and the traded apples are mostly low - priced slice - red apples. In Qixia, the prices of 80 first - and second - grade slice - red apples are 3.30 - 4.00 yuan/jin, 80 first - and second - grade striped apples are 3.50 - 4.50 yuan/jin, general apples are 2.80 - 3.30 yuan/jin, and third - grade apples are 2.00 - 2.50 yuan/jin. In Shaanxi, the inventory apples are mainly self - consumed by merchants, with slow sales. The prices of high - quality apples are temporarily stable. In Xianyang, early - maturing Gala apples have problems such as greening and poor coloring due to high temperatures. In Weinan and Tongchuan, rainfall after bag - removal is beneficial for Gala apples' coloring. Currently, a small amount of Gala apples are on the market, with a significant price gap between high - quality and low - quality ones. For example, in Chengcheng, the price of early - maturing paper - bag Gala apples starting from 70 with 30% redness is around 4.2 - 4.3 yuan/jin, and high - quality ones are around 4.5 yuan/jin [8]. 3.2 Supply Analysis - As of August 7, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 3.91%, a decrease of 0.45 percentage points in this period (20250731 - 0806), and 2.93 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The de - stocking rate was 93.86%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 6.48%, a decrease of 0.67 percentage points. The overall cold - storage shipment volume was lower than last week, and the current shipment was mainly concentrated in the main production areas. The number of merchants inspecting goods in cold - storage increased slightly this week, and the transactions also improved, but most of the goods were not sent to the market after the transaction, and the actual shipment volume decreased. The cold - storage shipment speed was lower than last year, mainly affected by the low prices of other seasonal fruits. Cold - storage operators were eager to ship, especially for some lower - quality goods. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 3.58%, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points. There was little remaining inventory in cold - storage, and there was almost no trading in the cold - storage. Merchants shipped their own goods according to market demand. High temperatures and low prices of other fruits significantly impacted the apple demand, and the merchants' shipment volume decreased [13]. - As of August 6, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main production areas of the country was 53.39 tons, a decrease of 8.02 tons compared to last week. The sales speed slowed down slightly compared to last week and was basically the same as last year [13]. 3.3 Demand Analysis - In the Chalong market in Guangdong, the number of early - morning arriving vehicles decreased slightly compared to last week, with an average of about 14.6 vehicles per day. The typhoon and rainy weather this week affected apple consumption. The low prices of seasonal fruits increased their sales, and some spot merchants switched to seasonal fruits, which impacted the apple market sales. The number of arriving vehicles in the market remained at a low level, the terminal consumption slowed down slightly, and second - and third - level wholesalers purchased on demand [16]. - According to the data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits on August 7 was 7 yuan/kg, slightly lower than last Friday, and it was at the median level in recent years [16]. - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of storage operators of 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia was 0.5 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin compared to last week [16]. - The market arrival volume this week continued to be low, slightly increasing compared to last week. The sales were stable, and the prices were stable. The arrival volume in the wholesale market was not much different from last week and generally remained at a low level. Recently, the supply of new - season early - maturing apples in the market increased, and the cold - storage supply decreased. According to Zhuochuang Information, the apple arrival volume in the Guangzhou Chalong market was about 131 vehicles, an increase of 9 vehicles compared to last week. The apple sales speed in the market was stable. High temperatures in many places recently made watermelons and other fruits the mainstream demand in the market, which significantly impacted other fruits. The overall apple demand was weak, and most merchants were not very enthusiastic about operating apples, with a low shipment volume to the market. The mainstream transaction prices in the market remained stable [16]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see [18]. - For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [18]. - For options, it is recommended to wait and see [17].