Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The apple market transaction has slowed down, and the atmosphere of stocking up for the Tomb-Sweeping Festival is average. As of March 25, 2026, the inventory in apple cold storage in the main producing areas across the country was 441790 tons, a decrease of 26640 tons compared with the previous week, and the shipment in the producing areas has relatively slowed down. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong and Shaanxi has decreased, and the overall transaction in the producing areas is not fast. The sales atmosphere in the sales area is not strong, and second - and third - level wholesalers mostly purchase goods as needed, with average shipment [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9860 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 34; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 2479 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 2505; the main contract position is 43657 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 2525 [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin, with no week - on - week change; the spot price of apples in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70) is 4.3 yuan/jin, with no week - on - week change; the spot price of apples in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75) is 1.8 yuan/jin, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.2; the spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged above 80) is 4 yuan/jin, with no week - on - week change [2]. Upstream Situation - The annual apple output in the country is 51285100 tons, with an increase of 1683400 tons; the apple orchard area in the country is 1955770 hectares, with a decrease of 195800 hectares; the weekly average wholesale price of apples is 9.33 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg; the weekly average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.39 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg; the total inventory of national apple cold storage is 441790 tons, with a decrease of 26640 tons; the storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 0.37, with a decrease of 0.01; the storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0.34, with a decrease of 0.03; the monthly export volume of apples is 80000 tons, with a decrease of 20000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The year - on - year monthly export amount of apples increased by 24.5%, with an increase of 11.4 percentage points; the monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 12224580000 US dollars, with a decrease of 10843040000 US dollars; the weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples is 0.35 yuan/jin, with no week - on - week change [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears is 6.61 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 6.15 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.24 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 6.39 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg; the average daily arrival volume of trucks in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 15.2 vehicles, with no week - on - week change; the average daily arrival volume of trucks in the morning at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 16.4 vehicles, with a decrease of 0.8 vehicles; the average daily arrival volume of trucks in the morning at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 26.6 vehicles, with an increase of 0.2 vehicles [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 36.45%, with a decrease of 3.97 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 0.55%, with a decrease of 39.87 percentage points [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The apple market transaction has slowed down, and the atmosphere for Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking is average. As of March 25, 2026, the inventory in apple cold storage in the main producing areas across the country was 441.79 million tons, a decrease of 26.64 million tons compared to last week, and the shipment in the producing areas has relatively slowed down. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong and Shaanxi has decreased. The sales atmosphere in the sales area is not strong, and second - and third - level wholesalers generally maintain on - demand purchases. Due to the general demand, the apple price may enter a volatile market in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9,863 yuan/ton, a decrease of 104 yuan; the main contract position is 51,151 lots, a decrease of 6,030 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is 5,414 lots, an increase of 832 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial products) is 4.3 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80 second - grade fruit farmer's goods) is 4 yuan/jin [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons; the national apple orchard area is 1,955.77 thousand hectares, a decrease of 19.58 thousand hectares. The weekly apple wholesale price is 9.42 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.05 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.39 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg. The total inventory in the national apple cold storage is 441.79 million tons, a decrease of 26.64 million tons; the storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 0.37, a decrease of 0.01; the storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi is 0.34, a decrease of 0.03. The monthly apple export volume is 80,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly year - on - year export amount of apples is 24.5%, an increase of 11.4 percentage points; the monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,222,458 million US dollars, a decrease of 1,084,304 million US dollars. The weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples is 0.35 yuan/jin, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears is 6.7 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.06 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 6.39 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 6.47 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg. The daily average number of incoming vehicles in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 15.2 vehicles, unchanged; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 16.4 vehicles, a decrease of 0.8 vehicles; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 26.6 vehicles, an increase of 0.2 vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 40.42%, an increase of 1.61 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 0.55%, a decrease of 39.87 percentage points [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - As of March 18, 2026, the inventory in apple cold storage in major production areas decreased, and the de - stocking speed accelerated. The apple market maintains a differentiated pattern of stronger in the west and stable in the east. High - quality goods are scarce and prices are firm. It is expected that the apple futures price still has room to rise in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 10,611 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 490; the main contract position is 93,146 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 2,130; the net buying volume of the top 20 positions in futures is 10,570 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 5,712 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75) is 2.2 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - commercial) is 4.3 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged above 80 first - grade secondary fruit farmer's goods) is 4 yuan/jin, and the week - on - week changes of these prices are all 0 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The annual apple output in the country is 5,128.51 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 168.34 million tons; the apple orchard area in the country is 1,955.77 thousand hectares, with a year - on - year decrease of 19.58 thousand hectares; the weekly average wholesale price of apples is 9.37 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 yuan/kg; the weekly average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.52 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 yuan/kg; the total inventory in national apple cold storage is 468.43 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 31.29 million tons; the storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 0.38, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02; the storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0.36, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.03; the monthly export volume of apples is 160,000 tons, with an increase of 40,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year growth rate of the monthly export amount of apples is 30.7%; the monthly import amount of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 1,775,355 million US dollars, with an increase of 657,409 million US dollars; the weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples is 0.35 yuan/jin, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05 yuan/jin [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears is 6.64 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 6.57 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 6.51 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 yuan/kg; the average daily arrival volume of trucks in the morning at the Jiangmen wholesale market in Guangdong is 12.8 vehicles, with an increase of 3.2 vehicles; the average daily arrival volume of trucks in the morning at the Xiaqiao wholesale market in Guangdong is 18.4 vehicles, with an increase of 6 vehicles; the average daily arrival volume of trucks in the morning at the Chalong wholesale market in Guangdong is 24 vehicles, with an increase of 5.6 vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 33.5%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.29%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 33.5%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.29% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The apple market maintains a differentiated pattern of strong in the west and stable in the east, with good - quality goods trading better than medium and low - grade goods. The supply of good - quality goods in areas like Luochuan, Shaanxi is temporarily in short supply. As of March 11, 2026, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased week - on - week, and the destocking speed accelerated. The sales in the distribution market are slow, but the high - quality goods are scarce and the price is firm. It is expected that the apple futures price will still have room to rise after a short - term adjustment [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 10,118 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 54; the main contract position is 90,214 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 4,612; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 3,145 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 1,030 [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75) is 2.2 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - commercial) is 4.3 yuan/jin with a week - on - week increase of 0.05; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged above 80 first - grade) is 4 yuan/jin with a week - on - week increase of 0.3 [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple production is 5,128.51 million tons; the apple orchard area in the whole country is 1,955.77 thousand hectares; the fruit wholesale price of apples is 9.51 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.52 yuan/kg with a week - on - week increase of 0.15. The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 499.72 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 27.81; the storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 0.4 with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02; in Shaanxi is 0.39 with a week - on - week decrease of 0.03. The monthly export volume of apples is 160,000 tons, with an increase of 40,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The year - on - year monthly export amount of apples increased by 30.7%, with a week - on - week increase of 14.5. The monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,775,355 thousand US dollars, with an increase of 657,409 thousand US dollars. The weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples is 0.35 yuan/jin, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05 [2] Downstream Situation - The fruit wholesale price of pears is 6.67 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02; bananas is 6.52 yuan/kg; watermelons is 6.75 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.13. The average daily morning arrival of trucks at the Jiangmen wholesale market in Guangdong is 12.8 vehicles, with an increase of 3.2; at the Xiaqiao wholesale market in Guangdong is 18.4 vehicles, with an increase of 6; at the Chalong wholesale market in Guangdong is 24 vehicles, with an increase of 5.6 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 35%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.04; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 35%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.04 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - As of March 11, 2026, the inventory of apple cold storage in the main producing areas of China was 4997200 tons, a decrease of 278200 tons compared with last week, and the de - stocking speed accelerated. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong and Shaanxi decreased. The shipment situation in different producing areas varied, with the west being stronger than the east. Due to factors such as low inventory, low high - quality fruit rate, and delivery logic, the price of the short - term apple main contract fluctuated sharply [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract was 9984 yuan/ton, a decrease of 252 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 6998 lots, a decrease of 2213 lots; the main contract position was 101066 lots, a decrease of 14883 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) was 5.25 yuan/jin, with no change; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) it was 2.4 yuan/jin, with no change; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial) it was 4.2 yuan/jin, with no change; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80 first - grade secondary fruit farmer's goods) it was 3.7 yuan/jin, with no change [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national apple output was 51285100 tons, an increase of 1683400 tons; the national apple orchard area was 1955770 hectares, a decrease of 19580 hectares [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly apple wholesale price was 9.51 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.09 yuan; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.37 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan. The total national apple cold storage inventory was 4997200 tons, a decrease of 278100 tons; the storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 0.4, a decrease of 0.02; in Shaanxi it was 0.39, a decrease of 0.03. The monthly apple export volume was 160000 tons, an increase of 40000 tons; the monthly year - on - year export amount was 30.7%, an increase of 14.5%. The monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts was 17753550000 US dollars, an increase of 6574090000 US dollars. The weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged apples (80) was 0.3 yuan/jin, with no change [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears was 6.67 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons was 6.75 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan; the weekly wholesale price of bananas was 6.52 yuan/kg, with no change. The average daily early - morning arrival volume at the Jiangmen wholesale market in Guangdong was 9.6 vehicles, a decrease of 2.65 vehicles; at the Xiaqiao wholesale market in Guangdong it was 12.4 vehicles, a decrease of 2.85 vehicles; at the Chalong wholesale market in Guangdong it was 18.4 vehicles, a decrease of 4.85 vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples was 37.07%, an increase of 0.81%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples was 37.07%, an increase of 0.81% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The apple market trading maintains a two - tiered differentiation state, with the overall trading atmosphere stronger in the west and weaker in the east. The procurement enthusiasm for high - quality goods in the northwest region is okay, while the transaction in the Shandong production area is average. The arrival volume in the sales area has decreased, and the sales are average. The de - stocking speed has accelerated, and the short - term price of the apple main contract fluctuates sharply [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 10,287 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan; the main contract position is 119,758 lots, a decrease of 7,496 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 9,438 lots, a decrease of 4,620 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin, in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75) is 2.4 yuan/jin, in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - commodity) is 4.2 yuan/jin, and in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged above 80 first - and second - grade fruit farmer's goods) is 3.7 yuan/jin [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, the apple orchard area in the whole country is 1,955.77 thousand hectares, a decrease of 19.58 thousand hectares; the weekly apple wholesale price is 9.42 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.14 yuan; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.37 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The total inventory of national apple cold storage is 527.53 million tons, a decrease of 25.39 million tons; the storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 0.42, a decrease of 0.01; the storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0.42, a decrease of 0.02; the monthly apple export volume is 160,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons; the monthly year - on - year export amount of apples is 30.7%, an increase of 14.5%; the monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,775,355 million US dollars, an increase of 657,409 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.3 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears is 6.69 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 6.88 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.24 yuan; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 6.52 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.07 yuan. The average daily morning arrival volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 9.6 vehicles, a decrease of 2.65 vehicles; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 12.4 vehicles, a decrease of 2.85 vehicles; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 18.4 vehicles, a decrease of 4.85 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 35.9%, a decrease of 3.04%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 35.89%, a decrease of 3.02% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The apple market continues to be polarized, with strong trading in the western region and weak in the east. The overall price of fruit farmers' goods is stable, but some fruit farmers are willing to lower prices. The arrival volume in the sales area has decreased, and the sales are average. It is expected that the trading of high - quality goods in the west will be active in the short term, and the price will remain stable, maintaining the polarization trend [2]. - As of February 25, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 552.92 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19.08 million tons, and the inventory removal speed slowed down. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong decreased by 1.07% to 43.01%, and in Shaanxi decreased by 1.61% to 43.88%. The replenishment atmosphere in Shandong is average, and some fruit farmers are willing to lower prices. In Shaanxi, the number of replenishing merchants is small, and the in - warehouse trading is cold. The trading heat in Shaanxi is slightly lower than last year [2]. - In the short term, the price of the main apple futures contract continues to reach new stage highs, and price fluctuations intensify [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract is 10,449 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract is 146,885 lots, a decrease of 9,219 lots compared with the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 18,366 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin, in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75) is 2.4 yuan/jin, in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - commodity) is 4.2 yuan/jin, and in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged above 80 first - grade secondary fruit farmers' goods) is 3.7 yuan/jin [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The annual apple output in the country is 5,128.51 million tons. The weekly average wholesale price of apples is 9.42 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg compared with the previous period; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.36 yuan/kg. The total cold - storage inventory of apples in the country is 552.92 million tons, a decrease of 19.08 million tons compared with the previous week. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 0.43, a decrease of 0.01 compared with the previous period; in Shaanxi is 0.44, a decrease of 0.02 compared with the previous period. The monthly export volume of apples is 160,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons compared with the previous period [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 17,753,550 US dollars, and the year - on - year increase of the monthly export amount of apples is 30.7%. The weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples is 0.3 yuan/jin [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears is 6.69 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg compared with the previous period; the wholesale price of bananas is 6.52 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.07 yuan/kg compared with the previous period; the wholesale price of watermelons is 6.88 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.24 yuan/kg compared with the previous period. The average daily arrival volume at the morning of Guangdong Jiangmen Wholesale Market is 12.25 vehicles, a decrease of 17.95 vehicles compared with the previous period; at Guangdong Xiaqiao Wholesale Market is 15.25 vehicles, a decrease of 21.75 vehicles compared with the previous period; at Guangdong Chalong Wholesale Market is 23.25 vehicles, a decrease of 31.95 vehicles compared with the previous period [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 32.76%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 32.71%, an increase of 5.42% compared with the previous period [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction affecting apple prices is the weakening post - holiday demand, with the inventory removal slowing down. The short - term demand weakening after the holiday suppresses the market, but the delivery contradiction supports it, making the market more likely to rise than fall [2]. - There is a possibility that the logic of the shortage of deliverable products may return to the market, which could drive the market up again [3]. - The market trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Post - holiday demand weakens. The inventory removal speed slows down during the Spring Festival. As of February 25, 2026, the cold - storage inventory in major apple - producing areas was 5.5292 billion tons, a decrease of 190,800 tons from the previous week. The short - term demand weakening after the holiday suppresses the market, but the delivery contradiction provides support [2]. - There is a question of whether the logic of the shortage of deliverable products will return to the market. Although the current market logic has shifted to fundamentals, there is a possibility of a return to the delivery - related logic and subsequent upward movement of the market [3]. - Near - end trading logic: The market logic revolves around fundamentals and short - term delivery issues. The short - term demand weakening after the holiday suppresses the market, but the下跌 space is limited due to delivery contradictions [6]. - Far - end trading logic: If post - holiday consumption continues to be weak, the market may decline further. If the trading logic returns to the shortage of deliverable products, the market may rise [8]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - Market positioning: Oscillating and slightly bullish. The main contract of the apple market fell 0.76% last week, with the closing price at 9,760 yuan/ton, and the overall position decreased [10]. - Basis strategy: It is difficult to formulate a basis strategy due to the difficulty in determining the spot target [11]. - Spread strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [12]. - Recent strategy review: Multiple spread trading strategies have been carried out and exited profitably, such as shorting the 10 - 01 spread, going long on the 10 - 01 spread, etc. [13][14]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Apple price range forecast: The price range is predicted to be between 9,200 and 10,000 yuan, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 10.5% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 13.8% [13]. - Apple hedging strategy: Different hedging strategies are provided for inventory management and procurement management, including shorting or going long on apple futures and selling call or put options [13]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - As of February 25, 2026, the cold - storage inventory in major apple - producing areas was 5.5292 billion tons, a decrease of 190,800 tons from the previous week, and the inventory removal speed slowed down during the Spring Festival [15]. - As of February 26, 2026, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 37.33%, 2.45 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.81 percentage points in two weeks, and the inventory removal rate was 32.79% [15]. - After the Spring Festival, cold - storage facilities in producing areas resumed work on the seventh day of the first lunar month, and merchants replenished goods on demand starting from the fourth day. The overall market situation after the holiday was similar to that before the holiday, with some farmers offering small price cuts [15]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Information - Weekly inventory data from Zhuochuang and Ganglian on Thursdays. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: The main contract of the apple market fell 0.76% last week, with the closing price at 9,760 yuan/ton, and the overall position decreased. The market logic revolves around fundamentals and short - term delivery issues, and the short - term demand weakening after the holiday suppresses the market, but the下跌 space is limited [18]. - Basis and spread structure: The apple basis structure is complex due to different apple qualities and changing futures delivery rules. The current focus is on the 5 - 10 spread, and there is a chance for it to widen if the trading logic returns to the shortage of deliverable products [20][21]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Apple profit mainly includes planting profit and storage profit. Currently, the market focuses on storage profit, which is closely related to the opening price. This year, storage faces challenges due to more low - quality fruits and fewer high - quality ones [23]. Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - Affected by hot and dry winds in spring and rainy weather during the harvest period, the apple production and quality decreased significantly this year. The estimated total apple production in 2025 is about 34 million tons, an 8% decrease from last year [26]. - The current inventory is about 10% lower than the same period last year, with the initial inventory between 7.5 and 7.7 million tons, and the effective inventory may be even lower due to more inferior fruits [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The sales of apples in the sales areas are good, and the prices of high-quality goods are relatively firm. In the production areas, there are few inquiring customers in Shandong and Shaanxi, while there is an inquiry for high-quality goods in Gansu. Overall, the apple demand during the Spring Festival is okay, but the enthusiasm for purchasing low-cost and average-quality goods is poor. It is expected that the price of the main apple futures contract will fluctuate [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract is 9749 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract is 112,582 lots, with a week-on-week increase of 2,421 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 10,410 lots, with a week-on-week increase of 874 lots [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper bag, above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin, and that in Shandong Yiyuan (paper bag, above 75) is 2.4 yuan/jin, both with no week-on-week change. The spot price of apples in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper bag, above 70 semi-commodity) is 4.2 yuan/jin, and that in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper bag, above 80 first-grade) is 3.7 yuan/jin, both with no week-on-week change [2]. Upstream Situation - The annual apple production in China is 5,128.51 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 168.34 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The weekly wholesale price of apples is 9.56 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.31 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.02 yuan/kg. The total inventory of apple cold storages in China is 588.15 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 31.66 tons. The capacity utilization rate of apple cold storages in Shandong is 0.45, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.02, and that in Shaanxi is 0.47, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.02. The monthly export volume of apples is 160,000 tons, with an increase of 40,000 tons. The monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,775,355 US dollars, with an increase of 657,409 US dollars. The year-on-year growth rate of the monthly export value of apples is 30.7%. The weekly profit of storage merchants for first- and second-grade paper bag apples (80) is 0.3 yuan/jin, with no week-on-week change [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears is 6.81 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.07 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 6.45 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.01 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 7.12 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.05 yuan/kg. The average daily number of trucks arriving at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market in the morning is 30.2, with an increase of 2.4; the average daily number of trucks arriving at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market in the morning is 37; the average daily number of trucks arriving at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market in the morning is 55.2, with an increase of 4 [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at-the-money call options for apples is 27.59%, and that of at-the-money put options is 27.55%, with a week-on-week increase of 2.85% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The pre - holiday trading in apple production areas has basically ended, with sporadic transactions. The packaging and shipping in the warehouses are gradually decreasing. The sales area has a large backlog of inventory and significant sales pressure, and citrus fruits continue to be substitutes. With the approaching long - holiday, short - term risk control should be noted [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract is 9739 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 138 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 112,583 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 9,935 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 10,404 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 824 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin, that in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.4 yuan/jin, that in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70, semi - commercial) is 4.2 yuan/jin, and that in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80, first - grade) is 3.7 yuan/jin, all with no week - on - week change [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national apple production is 5,128.51 million tons, with an increase of 168.34 million tons compared to the previous period [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of apples is 9.41 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 yuan/kg. The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 588.15 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 31.66 million tons. The average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.29 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg. The capacity utilization ratio of apple cold - storage in Shandong is 45.07%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.98%, and that in Shaanxi is 46.74%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.08%. The monthly export volume of apples is 160,000 tons, with an increase of 40,000 tons compared to the previous month. The year - on - year monthly export amount of apples is 30.7%, with an increase of 14.5 percentage points. The monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,775,355 million US dollars, with an increase of 657,409 million US dollars compared to the previous month. The weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples is 0.3 yuan/jin, with no week - on - week change [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears is 6.66 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.21 yuan/kg. The weekly wholesale price of bananas is 6.34 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.24 yuan/kg. The weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 6.99 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg. The average daily number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Jiangmen wholesale market in Guangdong is 27.8, with an increase of 10.4 compared to the previous week. The average daily number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Xiaqiao wholesale market in Guangdong is 34.2, with an increase of 10.8 compared to the previous week. The average daily number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Chalong wholesale market in Guangdong is 51.2, with an increase of 16.2 compared to the previous week [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 24.93%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.55 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 24.9%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 percentage points [2]