苹果产业日报 2025-08-26 乱，果农积极处理库存，成交价小幅下滑。总体来说，陈果现货库存偏低，对价格依然存在支撑，但是早 数据来源第三方(我的农产品网、中果网、郑商所)，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎！ 熟苹果上市量增加，且质量参差不齐，价格上涨节奏受到牵制，呈现区间行情，关注早熟苹果上色和上市 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 情况。操作上建议区间交易。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 10月合约收盘价 ...

增加，价格上涨节奏受到牵制，短期震荡调整，下方支撑关注7900元/吨，关注早熟苹果上色和上市情况。 免责声明 操作上建议区间交易。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 10月合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) | 8064 | -86 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) | 81514 | -2118 | | | 仓单数量:苹果(日,张) | 0 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) | -613 | -1088 | | 现货市场 | 山东烟台栖霞现货价格(纸袋80 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The old - crop inventory is low with little sales pressure, and transactions are priced according to quality, with the overall shipment speed slowing down. The supply of paper - bag Gala apples in the western region is increasing, and high - quality fruits are sold at high prices. Overall, the low spot inventory strongly supports prices, but as the listing volume of Gala apples gradually increases in the future, it may restrain the price increase rhythm. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract is 8150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 83,632 hands, an increase of 475 hands; the number of warehouse receipts is 1200, a decrease of 3533; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 0 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bag 80 and above) is 4 yuan/jin; in Gansu Jingning (paper - bag 75 and above, second - grade fruit farmer's goods) is 2.3 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bag 75 and above) is 4 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bag 70 and above semi - commodity) is 4 yuan/jin [2] Upstream Situation - The annual national apple output is 5128.51 million tons; the weekly apple wholesale price is 168.34 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg; the weekly average wholesale price of Fuji apples is not given a change value [2] Industry Situation - The national total apple cold - storage inventory is 9.69 million tons, a decrease of 7.38 million tons; the Shandong apple storage capacity ratio is 46.01%, a decrease of 0.03%; the Shaanxi apple storage capacity ratio is 0.02%, no change; the monthly apple export volume is 50,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly apple export value is 6328.4 million US dollars, a decrease of 212,886 million US dollars; the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1742602 million US dollars, a decrease of 212886 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apple storage merchants is 0.4 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 10.11 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/kg; the weekly banana wholesale price is 3.58 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg; the weekly watermelon wholesale price is 5.88 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg; the early - morning average daily arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 7.6 vehicles, a decrease of 0.8 vehicles; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 9.6 vehicles, a decrease of 1.4 vehicles; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 15 vehicles, a decrease of 1 vehicle [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 18.98%, an increase of 0.39%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 18.98%, an increase of 0.39% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The old - crop inventory is low with little sales pressure. The transactions are priced according to quality, and the overall shipment speed has slowed down. The supply of paper - bag Gala apples in the western producing areas is increasing, with high - quality fruits commanding high prices. Overall, the low spot inventory strongly supports prices, but the increasing listing volume of Gala apples may restrain the price increase. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and pay attention to the coloring and listing of early - maturing apples [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract is 42 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract is 82,432 hands, a decrease of 6,998 hands. The number of warehouse receipts is 0. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 4,008 hands, an increase of 841 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia, Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, and Shaanxi Luochuan remain unchanged. The national apple production is 5,128.51 million tons, and the weekly apple wholesale price is 9.69 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg. The average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.48 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 46.01 million tons, a decrease of 7.38 million tons. The capacity ratio of Shandong apple cold - storage is 8%, a decrease of 1%. The capacity ratio of Shaanxi apple cold - storage is 2%, a decrease of 0.47%. The monthly apple export volume is 40,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons. The monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,955,488 million US dollars, a decrease of 245,562.17 million US dollars, and the monthly apple export value is 4,330.8 million US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 10.11 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/kg. The weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.88 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg. The weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.58 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg. The morning average daily arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets has decreased [2] 3.5 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for apples is 18.59%, a decrease of 0.34% [2] 3.6 Industry News - On August 18, 2025, the supply of Gala apples in the western producing areas increased, with high - quality fruits commanding high prices. The trading of stored Fuji apples in Shandong was dull, with farmers and cold - storage operators offering discounts. The early - maturing Luli and Jinduhong apples were priced according to quality, and the shipment was okay. The Apple 2510 contract rose 0.44% on Monday [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The estimated national apple production for the new season is 3,736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 season. As of August 13, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 46.01 million tons, a decrease of 7.58 million tons from the previous week. The shipment speed slowed slightly. The capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu decreased, with Shandong's de - stocking improving slightly, Shaanxi's shipment slowing, and Gansu's shipment almost finished [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - The current low volume of Gala apples on the market and low old - crop inventory boost short - term apple prices, but the price increase may slow down after a large number of Gala apples are listed. Technically, for the 2510 contract, pay attention to the pressure at the 8200 yuan/ton integer mark. It is recommended to partially take profits on long positions at high prices and hold a light position [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract is 8178 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract is 81105 lots, a decrease of 1363 lots. The number of apple warehouse receipts is 0. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 2658 lots, an increase of 1045 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80) is 4 yuan/jin, unchanged. The spot price in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 4 yuan/jin, unchanged. The spot price in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.4 yuan/jin, unchanged. The spot price in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial) is 4 yuan/jin, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5128.51 million tons. The weekly wholesale price of apples is 9.75 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg compared to the previous period. The average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.51 yuan/kg [2] Industry Situation - The inventory ratio of Shaanxi apples decreased by 10000 (the unit is not clear). The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 53.39 million tons, a decrease of 8.22 million tons. The inventory ratio of Shandong apples decreased by 0.01. The monthly export volume of apples is 40000 tons. The monthly export value of apples is 4330.8 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts decreased by 245562.17 million US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.5 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The average weekly wholesale price of tangerines is 10.25 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.39 yuan/kg. The weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.92 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg. The weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.73 yuan/kg. The early - morning average daily arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 8.4 vehicles, an increase of 1 vehicle. The early - morning average daily arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 11 vehicles, an increase of 1 vehicle. The early - morning average daily arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 16 vehicles, an increase of 0.4 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 20.32%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.39%, an increase of 1.2% [2] Industry News - On August 12, 2025, the trading of inventory Fuji apples in the western production area basically ended, and the remaining goods were mostly picked up by merchants themselves. The trading of early - maturing apples was mainly Gala apples, which were in the centralized bag - removing and coloring period, and merchants were mostly on the sidelines, with prices remaining stable and weak. In the Shandong production area, the trading speed of inventory fruit from farmers was slow, the quality was uneven, there were many price - concession transactions, and the prices were a bit chaotic. The supply of smooth - skinned Luli apples continued to increase, and the prices changed little. The apple 2510 contract rose 0.65% on Tuesday [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Different varieties of apple spot prices show a divergent trend, with the purchase prices of some early - maturing varieties declining, while the opening - scale price of Gala apples is acceptable. The low inventory of old crops still provides some support, but the trading atmosphere is average, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. Technically, the Apple 2510 contract is running above the support line formed by the previous two lows, showing a bullish bias. It is recommended to conduct light - position trial long trades while controlling risks [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract is 7915 yuan/ton, the position of the main contract is 74614 lots, the number of warehouse receipts is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 354 lots, with a decrease of 2763 and an increase of 771 respectively compared to the previous period [2]. Spot Market - The spot prices in Shandong Yantai Qixia, Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, and Shaanxi Luochuan have no change compared to the previous period, with prices of 4 yuan/jin, 4 yuan/jin, 2.4 yuan/jin, and 4 yuan/jin respectively [2]. Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The weekly wholesale price of apples is 9.75 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.67 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06. The Shaanxi apple storage capacity ratio is 0.1, a decrease of 0.01; the national total apple cold - storage inventory is 61.61 million tons, a decrease of 8.84 million tons; the Shandong apple storage capacity ratio is 0.03, a decrease of 0.01. The monthly export volume of apples is 40000 tons, a decrease of 10000 tons; the monthly export value is 4330.8 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1955488 - 245562.17 million US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag apple 80 storage merchants is 0.6 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 10.64 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 3.73 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.6; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 5.92 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.08. The early - morning average daily arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Guangdong Xiaqiao, and Guangdong Chalong wholesale markets is 10, 15.6, and 1.2 vehicles respectively, with an increase of 1 vehicle at the Guangdong Xiaqiao market [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 20.9%, a decrease of 0.64; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 20.84%, a decrease of 0.7 [2]. Industry News - On August 6, 2025, the early - maturing paper - bag Gala apples in the western production areas started trading, with buyers making exploratory purchases. The price of 70 and above with more than 50% redness in the Heyang production area is between 4.60 - 5.00 yuan/jin. The inventory trading in the Shandong production area is a bit chaotic, with farmers' fruits priced according to quality and transactions made through bargaining, and merchants' fruits continuing to be shipped out on their own, with an average shipping speed. The Apple 2510 contract rose 0.93% on Wednesday. According to Mysteel's statistics, the preliminary estimate of the national apple output based on the bagging volume survey data is 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of July 30, 2025, the inventory of apple cold - storage in the national main production areas is 61.61 million tons, a decrease of 8.84 million tons compared to last week, with a slightly slower shipping speed compared to last week and basically the same as last year [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Current inventory is at a five - year low, and the purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased slightly year - on - year, supporting the price to continue to fluctuate strongly. However, the large listing of summer cooling fruits impacts apple demand, and the potential increase in new - season apple production may restrict price movement and range. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously and pay attention to controlling risks [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract is 8052 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract is 127,261 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 32,430 lots. The number of apple warehouse receipts is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 5,721 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 981 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of Shandong Yantai Qixia apples (paper - bagged, above 80 second - grade fruit farmers' goods) is 4 yuan/jin. The national apple production is 5,128.51 million tons, with an increase of 168.34 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 9.75 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10.15 million tons. The storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 70.45%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.16%. The storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0.04%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01%. The monthly export volume of apples is 40,000 tons, with a decrease of 10,000 tons. The monthly export value of apples is 4,330.8 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,955,488 million US dollars, with a decrease of 245,562.17 million US dollars. The profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.7 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines is 9.63 yuan/kg, the wholesale price of bananas is 6.06 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg, the wholesale price of watermelons is 3.92 yuan/kg. The morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 6.8 vehicles, with an increase of 1 vehicle, and at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 14.6 vehicles, with a decrease of 2 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 17.15%, and that of at - the - money put options is 17.15%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.79% [2] Industry News - On July 28, 2025, the trading of inventory apples in the western producing areas basically ended with little remaining stock. In the Shandong producing area, the number of inquiring merchants increased slightly, most of them selected suitable sources for procurement, and fruit farmers sold at the market price. The supply of early - maturing apples is still limited, and merchants' enthusiasm for purchasing is fair, with relatively stable prices. The apple 2510 contract rose 0.64% on Monday. According to preliminary estimates by Mysteel based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple production is expected to be 3,736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of July 23, 2025, the inventory of main apple - producing areas in China was 70.45 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10.15 million tons. The inventory removal speed was similar to that of last week and basically the same as that of last year. The storage capacity ratio in the Shandong producing area was 11.12%, a decrease of 1.03% from last week, and the inventory removal speed was still average. The storage capacity ratio in the Shaanxi producing area was 3.65%, a decrease of 0.98% from last week, and the inventory removal was slightly faster than last week. The storage capacity ratio in the Gansu producing area was 2.77%, a decrease of 0.92% from last week, and the inventory removal was sporadic [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][2] Core View - The current inventory is at a five - year low, and the purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased slightly year - on - year, supporting the price to fluctuate strongly. However, the large number of summer cooling fruits on the market impacts apple demand, and the potential increase in new - season apple production restricts the price rhythm. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously and pay attention to controlling risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract is 7969 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract is 93548 hands, with a week - on - week increase of 2518 hands. The number of apple warehouse receipts is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 5396 hands, with a week - on - week increase of 962 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot price of Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged 80 and above, second - grade fruit farmer's goods) is 4 yuan/jin, with no week - on - week change [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple production is 5128.51 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 168.34 million tons. The average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.89 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.23 yuan/kg. The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 80.6 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10.89 million tons. The storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 0.05, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01; the storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0.12, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01. The monthly export volume of apples is 40000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 10000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 4330.8 million dollars, and the monthly export value of apples is 1955488 - 245562.17 million dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.7 yuan/jin, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines is 9.63 yuan/kg, the wholesale price of bananas is 6.06 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg. The wholesale price of watermelons is 3.92 yuan/kg. The early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 5.8 vehicles, with a week - on - week decrease of 2 vehicles; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market, it is 9.2 vehicles; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market, it is 16.6 vehicles, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.8 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 16.22%, and that of at - the - money put options is 16.23%, with a day - on - day increase of 0.48% [2] Industry News - On July 24, 2025, the inventory trading in the western production areas is coming to an end, the listing volume of early - maturing fruits is still small, the transaction price remains stable, and the sales are okay. In the Shandong production area, the trading of fruit farmers' goods is a bit chaotic, some fruit farmers are eager to sell, the market is stable but weak, and most of the merchants' goods are self - shipped, with a general sales speed. The apple 2510 contract closed up 0.25% on Thursday. According to Mysteel statistics, the preliminary forecast of the national apple production in the new season is 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of July 23, 2025, the total cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas is 70.45 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.15 million tons. The storage capacity ratio in the Shandong production area is 11.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.03%, and the inventory removal speed is average. The storage capacity ratio in the Shaanxi production area is 3.65%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.98%, and the sales are slightly faster than last week. The storage capacity ratio in the Gansu production area is 2.77%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.92%, and the sales are sporadic [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided in the report [2] Core Viewpoints - As of July 16, 2025, the apple cold storage inventory in the main producing areas of China was 806,000 tons, a decrease of 108,900 tons from the previous week. The sales speed improved slightly compared to the previous week and was similar to the same period last year [2]. - The preliminary estimate of the national apple output in the new season is 37.3664 million tons, an increase of 859,300 tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season [2]. - The current inventory is at a low level in the same period of the past five years, and the purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased year - on - year, which strongly supports the price. However, the large - scale listing of summer cooling fruits impacts the apple demand, and the price momentum is insufficient. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. It is recommended to focus on the production situation and mainly go short - term long at low prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple futures contract was 7,923 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract was 94,770 lots, a decrease of 3,517 lots [2]. - The number of apple warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous day. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 4,977 lots, a decrease of 1,873 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of bagged apples above 80 in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 4 yuan/jin [2] Upstream Situation - The annual national apple output was 5.12851 million tons, an increase of 168,340 tons. The weekly apple wholesale price was 9.75 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg. The average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.89 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.23 yuan/kg [2] - The total national apple cold storage inventory was 806,000 tons, a decrease of 108,900 tons. The warehouse utilization ratio in Shandong was 12%, a decrease of 1%. The warehouse utilization ratio in Shaanxi decreased by 1%. The monthly apple export volume was 50 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly apple export value was 51.525 million US dollars. The monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts was not clearly presented in the report [2] - The weekly profit of first - and second - grade bagged apple 80 storage merchants was 0.7 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.2 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines was 9.12 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.28 yuan/kg. The weekly wholesale price of bananas was 6.15 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg. The weekly wholesale price of watermelons was 3.94 yuan/kg [2] - The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Jiangmen wholesale market in Guangdong was 5.8 vehicles, a decrease of 2 vehicles. The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Xiaqiao wholesale market in Guangdong was 9.2 vehicles, a decrease of 1.8 vehicles. The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Chalong wholesale market in Guangdong was 16.6 vehicles, a decrease of 2.8 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples was 17%, a decrease of 0.07%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples was 17%, a decrease of 0.11% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Summer消暑 fruits flooding the market impacts apple demand, slowing down the sales pace and weakening price drivers. However, the current inventory is at a five - year low, strongly supporting prices, so the apple market is expected to show a slightly bullish and volatile trend. Continued attention should be paid to production [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 7,862 yuan/ton, up 24; the main contract position is 96,958 lots, up 2,757; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 8,806 lots, up 783; the number of warehouse receipts is 0 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of Shandong Yantai Qixia apples (paper - bagged, above 80) is 4 yuan/jin; Shandong Yiyuan apples (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.4 yuan/jin; Gansu Jingning apples (paper - bagged, above 75) is 4 yuan/jin; Shaanxi Luochuan apples (paper - bagged, above 70) is 4 yuan/jin [2]. - **Upstream Situation**: The national apple orchard area is 1,955.77 thousand hectares, down 19.58; the national apple production is 5,128.51 tons, up 168.34 [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.66 yuan/kg, up 0.12; the wholesale price of apples is 9.76 yuan/kg, up 0.03; the total national apple cold - storage inventory is 91.49 tons, down 7.82; Shandong's apple storage capacity ratio is 0.13, down 0.01; Shaanxi's is 0.06, down 0.01; the monthly apple export volume is 50,000 tons, down 20,000; the monthly apple export value is 5,152.5 million US dollars, down 2,552.9; the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 2,201,050.17 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.9 yuan/jin, up 0.1 [2]. - **Downstream Situation**: The average wholesale price of tangerines is 9.12 yuan/kg, up 0.28; pears is 6.73 yuan/kg, up 0.05; bananas is 6.33 yuan/kg, down 0.14; watermelons is 3.93 yuan/kg, down 0.03. The average daily morning arrival of trucks at Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets is 7.8 (unchanged), 11 (down 0.8), and 19.4 (down 0.6) respectively [2]. - **Option Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for apples is 16.84%, up 0.09 and 0.1 respectively [2]. b. Industry News - On July 15, 2025, the trading of inventory apples in the production areas was relatively stable. The trading atmosphere in the western production areas improved, with more inquiries and purchases, and the market stabilized with prices based on quality. The trading of inventory apples in Shandong was a bit chaotic, with uneven fruit quality and different selling attitudes among farmers and merchants, mostly through bargaining [2]. - According to MySteel's preliminary estimate based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple production in the new season is expected to be 3,736.64 tons, an increase of 85.93 tons (2.35%) compared to the 2024 - 2025 season [2].