苹果产业日报 2026-01-08 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) -52 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) | 9531 | | 122541 | -11108 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) | 5464 | -1061 | | | | 现货市场 | 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 山东沂源苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, | 5.25 | 0 | 2.4 | 0 | | 元/斤) | 元/斤) 陕西洛川苹果现货价格(纸袋70#以上半 山东烟台栖霞现货价格(纸袋80#以上一 | | | | | | | | 4.2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 商品)(日,元/斤) 二级果农货)(日,元/斤) 全国:苹果产量(年,万吨) | 5128.51 | 168.34 | | | | 产业情况 | 水果批发价:苹果(周,元/公斤) 0.06 平均批发价:富士苹果(周,元/公斤) 陕 ...

——有重新转强的趋势 边舒扬（投资咨询资格证号：Z0012647） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 南华期货苹果产业周报 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响苹果价格走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1、01合约最终会以什么价格结束？目前的基本面比较明朗，就是今年苹果整体有所减产，质量明显下降，库 存果中也有大量次果、果脯果汁果等。对标盘面的可交割果少是支撑盘面持续上涨的主要原因。从目前的趋 势看，供给的缩量给于的盘面价格只可能越来越高，因此01合约的价格最终还是将要不断创新高，也是有可 能达到12合约的水准，甚至超过。尽管有空头亏钱交货，但是否能够达到合格要求呢？因此01合约会继续走 交割逻辑，而不是当下淡季消费逻辑。 2、春节旺季消费好还是差？后续决定苹果价格因素将从供给转为消费。由于近几年都出现过远期合约坍塌的 情况，主要还是因为消费不及预期导致，由于水果类型越来越多，且消费者偏好出现改变，苹果的消费结构 出现较大变化，因此传统的消费旺季有时候也可能会出现旺季不旺的局面。由于大部分的苹果质量下降，市 场还是存在担心劣币驱逐良币的情况在未来会发生。 ∗ ...

苹果产业日报 2025-12-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) -50 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) | 9149 6025 | -888 | 148778 | -1940 | | 现货市场 | 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 山东沂源苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, | 5.25 | 0 | 2.6 | 0 | | | 元/斤) 陕西洛川苹果现货价格(纸袋70#以上半 元/斤) 山东烟台栖霞现货价格(纸袋80#以上一 | | | | | | | | 4.2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 商品)(日,元/斤) 全国:苹果产量(年,万吨) 二级果农货)(日,元/斤) 水果批发价:苹果(周,元/公斤) 0 平均批发价:富士苹果(周,元/公斤) | 5128.51 9.37 | 168.34 | 9.14 | 0.01 | | | 全国苹果冷库总库存( ...

区走货相对冷清，低价货源出库尚可，果农好货成交略放缓。洛川产区主要以客商包装手中货源发自有渠 数据来源第三方(我的农产品网、中果网、郑商所)，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎！ 道居多，少量调货以果农两级货源。销区市场到货量减少，因价格较高走货同比不快，砂糖橘及其他柑橘 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 类水果对苹果销售形成冲击。当前节日备货偏淡，短期价格继续回落可能。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 苹果产业日报 2025-12-16 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

交易氛围仍显清淡，中转库有积压，柑橘类水果冲击苹果市场。不过终端走货不快，预计价格回落为主。 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 苹果产业日报 2025-12-11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) -5 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) | 9505 | | 130067 | -8564 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) | 6502 | 30 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The apple market shows mixed trends. While there is a slight increase in the number of in -quiring customers in the producing areas, most are still observing. The overall trading of late - Fuji apples remains light, with limited orders from merchants in the producing areas. The出库 in Shandong is slow, and the willingness of fruit farmers in Shaanxi to sell is still low. The arrival volume in the sales areas has increased slightly, but the trading atmosphere is still light, and the terminal sales are slow, increasing the risk of price decline. The citrus market is impacting the apple market [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9510 yuan/ton, and the main contract position is 138,631 hands, with a week - on - week increase of 6,486 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 6,198 hands, a week - on - week decrease of 1,566 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in different regions are as follows: 5.25 yuan/jin in Gansu Jingning (paper - bag 75 and above), 2.6 yuan/jin in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bag 75 and above), 4.2 yuan/jin in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bag 70 and above semi - commercial), and 4 yuan/jin in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bag 80 and above secondary fruit farmer's goods) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The annual apple production in the country is 5,128.51 million tons. The weekly average wholesale price of apples is 9.37 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.07 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan/kg. The Shaanxi apple storage capacity ratio is 0.58, and the national apple cold - storage total inventory is 763.51 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.24 million tons. The monthly apple export volume is 80,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import amount of fresh, dried fruits and nuts decreased by 14.3%. The month - on - month export amount of apples decreased by 503,616 US dollars, and the profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apple storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale prices of duck pears, bananas, and watermelons are 6.74 yuan/kg, 6.33 yuan/kg, and 5.47 yuan/kg respectively. The weekly average number of early - morning arriving trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets is 17.2, 19.6, and 26.8 respectively, with week - on - week increases of 1.2, 0.4, and 1.6 [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 22.41%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.21%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.39%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.24% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The market in apple - producing areas has changed little. The number of in -quiring customers has increased slightly, but most are still observing. Shaanxi and Shandong mainly rely on merchants' self - pick - up of goods, and most of the small - volume purchases are cheap goods. The trading in the Gansu producing area is mainly high - quality inventory Fuji, and the trading enthusiasm has slightly declined [2].

苹果产业日报 2025-12-08 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) -133 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) | 9506 | | | 126173 | 1466 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) | 5007 | -1983 | | | | | 现货市场 | 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 山东沂源苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, | 5.25 | 0 | | 2.6 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The core contradictions affecting apple prices are the uncertainty of the final price of the 01 contract and the ambiguity of the Spring Festival consumption season. The 01 contract will follow the delivery logic due to reduced supply and limited deliverable fruits, while future price factors will shift from supply to consumption, with potential "off - peak during peak season" scenarios [1]. - The short - term trading logic is that it's the off - season for late Fuji apples, with limited orders from merchants and market impact from citrus fruits, but the price of high - quality apples remains firm. In the long - term, the scarcity of high - quality apples provides opportunities for price rebounds after declines [2][3]. - The upward momentum of apple prices may strengthen. The basis strategy is difficult to formulate, and the monthly spread strategy suggests waiting and seeing. For industrial clients, different hedging strategies are recommended based on inventory and procurement management needs [6][7][8] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Contradictions** - The 01 contract price is expected to keep rising due to reduced apple production, poor quality, and limited deliverable fruits. Future price determinants will shift to consumption, and there are concerns about "off - peak during peak season" and "bad money driving out good" [1]. - **Speculative Strategy Recommendations** - The upward momentum of apple prices may strengthen. The net long position decreased to 3029 lots. The basis strategy is hard to formulate, and the monthly spread strategy suggests waiting and seeing [6][7][8]. - **Industry Client Operation Recommendations** - The predicted price range for apples is 9200 - 10000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 18.5% (3 - year). Different hedging strategies are recommended for inventory and procurement management [9]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns - **This Week's Important Information** - As of December 3rd, national apple cold - storage inventories decreased. Cold - storage shipments slowed down, and trading in production areas was sluggish. The number of vehicles in Guangdong's three major wholesale markets increased, but the sales slowed down [12]. - **Next Week's Important Information** - Monitor the weekly Thursday inventory data from Zhuochuang and Ganglian [15]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation - **Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation** - Last week, apple futures showed a volatile and slightly upward trend. Total positions decreased significantly, and profitable seats continued to reduce positions. Technically, the main contract did not break through the previous high and maintained an upward structure [15]. - **Basis and Monthly Spread Structure** - The apple basis structure is complex due to inconsistent apple quality and changing futures delivery rules. The monthly spread structure shows significant fluctuations in the near - month approaching the delivery month, and the possibility of a stronger long - term market is increasing [17]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - **Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain's Upstream and Downstream** - Apple profits mainly include planting and storage profits. Currently, the market focuses on storage profits, which are closely related to the opening price. With more low - quality apples this year, storage faces challenges, and the storage profit for the 25/26 season is undetermined [19]. Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Deduction - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction** - Affected by weather, this year's apple production and quality declined. The estimated total production in 2025 is about 34 million tons, an 8% decrease from last year. Cold - storage inventories decreased by 10% compared to the same period last year, and the effective inventory may be lower [21].

苹果产业日报 2025-12-04 期价有所调整迹象，短期暂且观望。关注其他替代水果影响。 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) -107 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) | 9605 | | 128838 | 8515 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) | 4433 | -3711 | | | | | 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 山东沂源苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, | 5.25 | 0 | 2.6 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 元/斤) 陕西洛川苹果现货价格(纸袋70#以上半 元/斤) 山东烟台栖霞现货价格(纸袋80#以上一 | | | | | | | | 4.2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 商品)(日,元/斤) 二级果农货)(日,元/斤) 全国:苹果产量(年,万吨) 水果批 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Late Fuji apple trading has slowed down. In Shandong, the warehousing work is basically finished, with ground trading mainly for direct market delivery by merchants, and in - warehouse trading starting. The foreign trade channel continues to seek goods, with small fruits selling well and the outbound rate slightly faster than last year. In Shaanxi, products are gradually leaving the warehouse, with Luochuan mainly packaging goods in merchants' hands and having a light cold - storage trading atmosphere. The arrival volume in the sales area has increased, but the trading atmosphere remains light. The increase in the listing volume of citrus fruits squeezes the apple sales space. Apple futures prices are expected to remain high in the short term, and the impact of alternative fruits should be noted [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9712 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 866; the main contract position is 8144 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is 120323 hands, with a month - on - month increase of 5896 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, Shaanxi Luochuan, and Shandong Yantai Qixia are 5.25 yuan/jin, 2.6 yuan/jin, 4.2 yuan/jin, and 4 yuan/jin respectively, with no month - on - month change [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5128.51 million tons, and the output in a certain area is 168.34 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly apple wholesale price is 9.38 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.06 yuan/kg; the national apple cold - storage total inventory is 766.75 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 6.41; the storage capacity ratios of Shandong and Shaanxi apples are 0.54 and 0.58 respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 0.01; the monthly apple export volume is 80,000 tons, with an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1.334364 billion US dollars, with a decrease of 503,616 US dollars; the year - on - year monthly apple export amount is - 14.3%; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag apple 80 storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale prices of pears, bananas, and watermelons are 6.76 yuan/kg, 5.41 yuan/kg, and 6 yuan/kg respectively, with month - on - month increases of 0.05, 0.22, and 0.04; the early - morning average daily arrival vehicle numbers at Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets are 16, 25.2, and 19.2 respectively, with month - on - month increases of 3.8, 1.4, and 3.2 [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for apples is 1.85% and 17.51% respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 15.66 and 9.27 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The trading of inventory apples remains light. In Shandong and Shaanxi, there are few inquiring merchants, mainly self - picking by merchants. In Gansu, the sales of Huaniu apples are okay, while the trading of Fuji apples has slowed down slightly, with little change in transaction prices [2]