Core Viewpoint - The new consumption sector in the Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in the first half of the year, with several companies reporting significant profit growth, leading to renewed optimism from investment institutions regarding the sector's future trajectory [1][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - Hong Kong-listed company Mao Geping expects a net profit of 665 million to 675 million yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 35% to 37% [1][4]. - Pop Mart announced a net profit growth of no less than 350% for the first half of the year, driven by increased global brand recognition and diverse product offerings [3][6]. - Lao Pu Gold anticipates a net profit increase of 279% to 288%, with expected revenues between 12 billion to 12.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 241% to 255% [3][4]. - Up Beauty expects a revenue of 4.09 billion to 4.11 billion yuan, with a profit growth of 30.9% to 35.8% [4][6]. - The food and beverage sector, represented by Guoquan, reported a revenue of 3.24 billion yuan, with a net profit growth of 122.5% [5][6]. Group 2: Market Trends and Analyst Insights - The new consumption sector has seen a surge in stock prices, with Lao Pu Gold up 220.12%, Pop Mart up 200.17%, and Up Beauty up 170.65% from January 1 to August 13 [2][6]. - Analysts express optimism about the new consumption sector, citing a shift in consumer preferences towards experiential and social consumption, which is driving demand for products in categories like trendy toys, tea drinks, and luxury jewelry [6][7]. - The current new consumption trend is characterized by structural growth driven by policy support, demographic changes, and technological advancements, with a focus on innovative products that meet evolving consumer needs [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The company expects revenue in the first half of 2025 to reach between 4.09 billion and 4.11 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3%, and net profit is projected to be between 540 million and 560 million RMB, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [1] Group 1 - Growth drivers include the continuous contribution of the Han Shu brand's multi-category layout across all channels and a significant year-on-year increase in revenue from the infant skincare brand Newpage [1] - The main brand's promotional self-broadcasting performance is impressive, and the ongoing expansion of product categories is expected to support high growth [1] - According to Qingyan data, Han Shu ranked first in the Douyin beauty and skincare category in June and has maintained this position for eight consecutive months, with self-operated sales contributing 60.4% of its revenue in June [1] Group 2 - The company plans to build a six-part matrix in the long term, including mass skincare, personal care, maternal and infant products, skin medical beauty, makeup, high-end skincare, and instruments over the next decade [1] - The main brand Han Shu has strong momentum and has successfully established a strong brand presence on the Douyin channel, with other brands likely to replicate this successful model, further contributing to performance growth [1][2] - Based on the company's strong online sales performance, net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.02 billion, 1.28 billion, and 1.55 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 31.1%, 25.2%, and 20.9% respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - Upmood Holdings (02145) shares rose over 5%, reaching a historical high of 93 HKD, following a positive profit forecast for the first half of 2025, indicating strong revenue and profit growth driven by strategic brand and channel optimization [1][1][1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Upmood Holdings expects revenue between 4.09 billion to 4.11 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3% [1][1] - The net profit is projected to be between 540 million to 560 million RMB, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [1][1] Strategic Insights - The revenue and profit increase is attributed to the main brand, Han Shu, benefiting from a multi-channel and multi-category approach, as well as substantial growth from the new growth curve, Newpage [1][1] - Shenwan Hongyuan noted that the company's strategic implementation is yielding results, focusing on core sectors, upgrading channel structures, diversifying product categories, and precisely positioning new brands [1][1] - CICC highlighted that the profit forecast exceeded expectations due to improved profit margins driven by channel and brand structure optimization [1][1] Market Reaction - Following the announcement, Upmood Holdings' stock price increased by 5.3%, with a trading volume of 41.4813 million HKD [1][1] - CICC has maintained an outperform rating for the company and raised the target price by 15% to 98 HKD [1][1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Shangmei Co., Ltd. (02145) has seen its stock price rise over 5%, reaching a historical high of 93 HKD, driven by positive earnings forecasts for the first half of 2025 [1] - The company anticipates revenue between 4.09 billion to 4.11 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3% [1] - Net profit is expected to be between 540 million to 560 million RMB, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [1] Group 2 - The revenue and profit growth are attributed to the main brand, Han Shu, which has benefited from a multi-channel and multi-category strategy, as well as a substantial increase in revenue from the new growth line, Newpage [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan believes that the company's strategic implementation is yielding results, focusing on core sectors, upgrading channel structures, diversifying product categories, and positioning new brands accurately [1] - CICC notes that the company's profit forecast for the first half of the year exceeds expectations, primarily due to the optimization of channel and brand structures, which has led to an unexpected increase in profit margins [1] Group 3 - The company is benefiting from the rise of domestic brands and the trend towards cost-effective consumption, while also opening up new growth opportunities in mid-to-high-end and niche markets [1] - CICC maintains an outperform rating for the company and raises the target price by 15% to 98 HKD [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new consumption sector in the Hong Kong stock market has shown significant growth, with several companies reporting positive earnings forecasts, contributing to the overall bullish trend in this segment [3][4][6]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Pop Mart (09992.HK) rose by 7.87%, while Shangmei Co. (02145.HK) increased by 7.34%, and Laopu Gold (06181.HK) saw a rise of 5.93% [1][2]. - The New Consumption Concept Index has recorded a year-to-date increase of 64.97%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index, which has risen by 24.18% [3]. Group 2: Earnings Forecasts - Shangmei Co. expects revenue for the first half of 2025 to be between 4.09 billion to 4.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3%, with net profit projected to reach 540 million to 560 million yuan, an increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [3]. - Laopu Gold anticipates revenue of 12 billion to 12.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 241% to 255%, with net profit expected to be between 2.23 billion to 2.28 billion yuan, a growth of 279% to 288% [4]. - Pop Mart forecasts a revenue increase of no less than 200% and a profit increase of no less than 350% for the first half of 2025 [5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Sentiment - Investment firms are optimistic about the new consumption sector, noting a shift towards personalized and service-oriented consumption among residents [6]. - The Hong Kong consumption sector is seen as more aligned with current new consumption trends compared to the A-share market, indicating significant growth potential [6]. - Despite the current high valuations in the new consumption sector, the macro trend towards personalized and rational consumption remains intact, suggesting continued growth in related areas such as trendy toys, beauty care, and pet products [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Up Beauty Co., Ltd. (上美股份), has released a positive profit forecast for the first half of 2025, indicating significant growth in both revenue and net profit [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company expects revenue to be between 4.09 billion to 4.11 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3% [1] - The net profit is projected to reach between 540 million to 560 million RMB, showing a substantial year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [1] Brand Performance - The revenue growth is primarily attributed to the main brand, Han Shu (韩束), which has a multi-channel and multi-category strategy that continues to drive income [1] - The new growth curve, New Page (newpage一页), has also significantly contributed to revenue, showing a substantial year-on-year increase [1] Market Position - According to the latest data, Han Shu's GMV on Douyin (抖音) exceeded 3.63 billion RMB from January to June, maintaining its position as the top seller in the beauty category on the platform for 2023-2024 [1] - In the maternal and infant skincare sector, the company continues to solidify its leading position through its dual-brand strategy with New Page and Red Elephant (红色小象) [1]

Core Viewpoint - Up Beauty Co., Ltd. (02145) experienced a significant stock increase of over 7%, reaching HKD 87.65, following the positive profit forecast for the first half of 2025 [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company expects revenue between RMB 4.09 billion and RMB 4.11 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3% [1] - The net profit is projected to be between RMB 540 million and RMB 560 million, showing a substantial year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [1] Brand Performance - The revenue growth is primarily attributed to the main brand, Han Shu, which has a comprehensive and multi-category layout contributing to sustained income growth [1] - The new growth curve, New Page, has also seen a significant year-on-year revenue increase [1] Market Position - According to the latest data, Han Shu's GMV on Douyin for the first half of the year surpassed RMB 3.63 billion, maintaining its position as the top seller in the beauty category on the platform for 2023-2024 [1] - In the mother and baby skincare sector, Up Beauty Co., Ltd. continues to solidify its industry-leading position through its dual-brand strategy with New Page and Red Elephant [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects significant revenue and profit growth for the six months ending June 30, 2025, driven by its skincare brands and product diversification [1] Revenue Summary - The projected revenue for the six months ending June 30, 2025, is estimated to be between approximately RMB 40.90 billion and RMB 41.10 billion, representing an increase of about 16.8% to 17.3% compared to the revenue of approximately RMB 35.024 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2024 [1] Profit Summary - The anticipated profit for the same period is expected to be between approximately RMB 5.40 billion and RMB 5.60 billion, which indicates an increase of about 30.9% to 35.8% compared to the profit of approximately RMB 4.124 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2024 [1] Growth Drivers - The revenue and profit increase is primarily attributed to the continuous growth from the scientific anti-aging skincare brand Han Shu and the significant year-on-year revenue increase from the Chinese infant skincare brand Newpage [1]

Core Viewpoint - The financial report of Shangmei Co., Ltd. for 2024 shows impressive revenue and profit growth, but reveals significant reliance on a single brand and channel, raising concerns about sustainability and long-term growth [1][2][10]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Shangmei Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of 6.793 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 62.1%, and a net profit of 803 million RMB, up 74.0% [1][10]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 75.2%, while the net profit margin was only 11.83% [8][10]. Brand Dependency - The company heavily relies on the KANS brand, which accounted for 82.3% of total revenue in 2024, with sales reaching 5.591 billion RMB, a growth of 80.9% [4][5]. - Other brands under Shangmei, such as One Leaf and Baby Elephant, showed significantly lower sales figures, indicating a "one strong, multiple weak" brand structure [2][4]. Channel Dependency - Online sales contributed 90.5% of total revenue in 2024, with 61.35 billion RMB generated from online channels, marking an increase of approximately 82.6% [6][7]. - The majority of online sales came from the Douyin platform, where KANS brand's GMV reached 6.784 billion RMB, growing 103% year-on-year [6][10]. Marketing and R&D Expenditure - Marketing expenses accounted for nearly 60% of total revenue in 2024, with sales and distribution expenses reaching 3.947 billion RMB, a 76.2% increase [8][10]. - R&D expenditure was only 1.8 billion RMB, representing a mere 2.6% of total revenue, highlighting a significant imbalance between marketing and product development [10]. Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 10 billion RMB by 2025 and 30 billion RMB by 2030, but this ambition is contingent on overcoming brand and channel dependencies [10].

Group 1 - The trend of refined parenting is emerging as a new generation of parents, primarily those born in the 1990s and 2000s, are driving changes in child-rearing concepts and consumption patterns, leading to an increased demand for children's skincare products [1] - The baby and toddler skincare market in China is expected to reach nearly 50 billion yuan by 2026, with the skincare segment projected to reach 18 billion yuan, expanding from basic cleaning and moisturizing to more functional areas such as sensitive skin, eczema, sun protection, and mosquito repellent [1] - Domestic beauty companies are increasingly entering the baby skincare market, with brands like Jichu launching products that address common skin issues in infants, such as eczema, through patented micro-ecological balance technology [1] Group 2 - Sales of baby skincare products on major e-commerce platforms are reaching new highs, with companies like Shiseido's subsidiary, Up Beauty, launching multiple baby skincare brands, including Red Elephant and Newpage, which reported significant revenue growth [4] - Newpage achieved a revenue of 376 million yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 146.3%, while its revenue growth in 2023 was nearly five times [4] - Other brands like Winona Baby and Qichu are also gaining traction, with Winona Baby generating 201 million yuan in revenue in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.03% [4]