Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The white liquor industry is showing significant structural characteristics and phase pressure, with a notable trend of concentration among leading brands. The demand side is currently impacted by external policy shocks, particularly a new round of alcohol prohibition affecting both public and private consumption scenarios. However, there is potential for policy adjustments in the future. In the medium to long term, consumption is expected to concentrate on leading brands and high-cost performance products, with resilient companies likely to gain advantages during industry adjustments. Recommendations include seeking low-position investments in leading white liquor companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao [3][12][13]. Market Performance - From July 28 to August 1, the food and beverage index fell by 2.2%, ranking 16th among 28 first-level sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.4 percentage points. Other food (+0.0%), meat products (-0.0%), and dairy products (-0.6%) performed relatively better [12][14]. Upstream Data - As of July 15, the GDT auction price for whole milk powder was $3,928 per ton, up 1.8% month-on-month and 25.0% year-on-year. The domestic fresh milk price was 3.0 yuan per kilogram as of July 24, down 0.3% month-on-month and down 5.9% year-on-year. The domestic milk price is expected to continue its downward trend in the short to medium term [19][22]. Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Kweichow Moutai: Short-term demand pressure but focusing on sustainable development and increasing dividend rates. - Shanxi Fenjiu: Facing short-term demand pressure but with high mid-term growth certainty. - Ximai Food: Stable growth in the oat business with improving raw material costs. - Wancheng Group: Continuous expansion in the snack retail sector targeting young consumers. - Bairun Co.: Improvement trends in pre-mixed drinks and whiskey distribution [5][13].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing varied performance among major companies, with some showing signs of recovery while others face challenges in sales and profitability [3][4][19]. Financial Performance - Budweiser APAC reported a revenue of $3.136 billion for the first half of 2025, with a normalized EBITDA of $983 million, despite a decline in key operating metrics compared to the previous year [3]. - Heineken's revenue in China reached €16.924 billion, with a 30% increase in authorized beer sales under China Resources Beer, although overall sales volume decreased by 1.2% [4][5]. - Luzhou Laojiao announced a cash dividend of approximately ¥6.759 billion, distributing ¥45.92 per 10 shares [6]. Company Developments - The controlling shareholder of Baijiu Co. pledged 35.1 million shares, representing 8.25% of his holdings, while the total pledged shares reached 72 million [7][8]. - Jinhuijiu's major shareholder pledged 1 million shares, with a total of 75% of his holdings now pledged [9]. - Moutai opened two new cultural experience centers in Shanghai and Kunming, expanding its brand presence [10]. Industry Trends - The production of beer in Guangdong province decreased by 0.6% in the first half of 2025, with a total production of 241.89 million liters [18]. - The liquor, beverage, and refined tea manufacturing industry in Guizhou province grew by 3.7% in the first half of 2025, with retail sales of tobacco and alcohol increasing by 7.4% [19]. New Products - Kuaijishan announced the launch of new products, including 1743 raw yellow wine, utilizing advanced preservation techniques [13]. - Langjiu will begin accepting orders for the 2025 version of Langjiu on August 11, with shipments starting on August 25 [14]. Personnel Changes - The resignation of the former chairman of Shede Liquor, Ni Qiang, was announced, marking a significant leadership change [20]. - The vice president of Guyue Longshan, Lü Danlin, also resigned, indicating further shifts in management [21]. - Tianyoude Liquor appointed Lu Shuilong as vice president, focusing on market strategy and expansion [22][23].

Group 1: Industry Performance - A-share and Hong Kong stock market liquor companies have officially entered the semi-annual report period [1] - Guizhou Moutai's MSCI ESG rating has been upgraded from BBB to A, ranking second in the beverage industry in China [2] - The liquor, beverage, and refined tea manufacturing industry in Guizhou grew by 3.7% in the first half of 2025 [18] Group 2: Company Financials - Budweiser APAC reported revenue of $3.136 billion and EBITDA of $983 million for the first half of 2025, with a decline in key operating metrics compared to the previous year [3] - Heineken achieved revenue of €16.924 billion and operating profit of €1.433 billion in the first half of 2025, with a notable growth in authorized beer sales in China exceeding 30% [4][5] - Luzhou Laojiao announced a cash dividend of approximately ¥6.759 billion, distributing ¥45.92 per 10 shares [6] Group 3: Corporate Actions - Budweiser APAC is focusing on non-drinking channels and cost control measures to mitigate revenue and profit declines [3] - Jinwei Wine's controlling shareholder pledged 10 million shares, with a total of 75.36% of their shares now pledged [8][9] - The resignation of the former chairman of Shede Liquor, Ni Qiang, was announced, marking a significant leadership change [19] Group 4: New Product Launches - Kuaijishan plans to launch new products including 1743 raw yellow wine and pure five-year raw Shaoxing wine [13] - The new version of Langjiu will start accepting sales orders on August 11, 2025, with shipments beginning on August 25 [14] Group 5: Regulatory and Compliance - The Guizhou market supervision authority issued a reminder to liquor producers to maintain the reputation of Guizhou liquor and comply with production standards [15] - The Chongqing market regulatory authority reported that a beer was found to contain a harmful substance similar to Viagra, leading to the company's cancellation [12] Group 6: Management Changes - The resignation of the deputy general manager of Guyue Longshan, Lü Danlin, was announced [20] - Tianyoude Liquor has reappointed Lu Shuilong as deputy general manager, responsible for market strategy and business development [21]