快递行业当下怎么看？价格战阴霾下，如何投资布局 20250520 摘要 • 快递行业一季度增速虽达 21.6%，但 4 月已回落至 20%以下，价格战持 续，总部通过补贴加盟商应对竞争，但加盟商抢份额动力不足，价格战主 要集中在中西部及华北地区，传统产粮区价格稳定。 • 申通在价格稳定性方面表现突出，加盟商韧性较强，无需总部过多支持即 可积极抢占市场份额。4 月申通单票收入增长 19%，高于行业平均水平， 圆通和顺丰表现尤为亮眼，分别实现 30%的增长。 • 快递公司通过优化中转和干线运输等核心成本应对价格竞争，运达股份成 本控制效果显著，达到每票 0.62 元的历史最低水平。数字化工具和无人 车等硬件设施也被用于帮助加盟商降低成本。 • 各快递公司单票派费随业务量增长逐步降低，但降幅不一。圆通和中通派 费较为稳健，网络稳定；韵达、申通及极兔等公司单票派费下降明显。申 通一季度派费环比未继续下降，验证了其平衡利润与增速的策略。 • 各快递公司资本开支分化，中通和圆通保持强劲投入，预示着 2025 年后 市场份额或将变化。单票现金流普遍下降，可能成为行业格局变化拐点。 2025 年各公司在资本开支、产能规划和价 ...

事件: 2025 年4 月28 日，顺丰控股发布2025 年一季报： 2025Q1，顺丰控股实现营业收入698.5 亿元,同比+6.9%;实现归母净利润22.3 亿元，同比+16.9%; 实现扣 非归母净利润19.7 亿元，同比+19.1%。 其中2025Q1 公司速运物流业务（包括时效件+经济件+冷运及医药+快运+同城即时配）收入518.6 亿 元，同比+7.2%；供应链及国际板块收入同比+9.9%。 业务方面，公司2025Q1 总业务量35.6 亿票，其中速运物流业务量完成35.4 亿票，同比+19.7%；速运物 流单票收入14.6 元，同比-10.5%。 投资要点: 坚持高质量发展，2025Q1 收入实现稳健增长 2025Q1，公司实现业务的高质量发展，其中得益于公司持续完善产品矩阵及强化服务竞争力，不断渗 透各行各业客户的端到端物流场景，稳步扩大业务规模，公司速运物流业务量完成35.4 亿票，同比 +19.7%，速运物流单票收入14.6 元，同比-10.5%，最终实现该板块收入518.6 亿元，同比+7.2%；同时 公司持续加强国际网络能力建设，并深化业务融通，积极拓展供应链及国际市场，公司供应链及国 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][11][12] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated steady revenue growth and improved profitability, with a resilient performance in its first quarter of 2025 [5][6][9] - The company achieved a revenue of 69.85 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.23 billion yuan, up 16.9% year-on-year [5][6] - The report emphasizes the company's focus on high-quality development, cost reduction, and efficiency improvement, which are expected to continue driving performance [7][9] Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the express logistics business generated revenue of 51.86 billion yuan, a 7.2% increase year-on-year, while the supply chain and international segments saw a 9.9% increase [5][6] - The total business volume reached 3.56 billion parcels, with a year-on-year growth of 19.7% [5][6] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 13.3%, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase, while the net profit margin improved to 3.20% [7][8] Cost Management and Shareholder Returns - The company has successfully implemented cost control measures, resulting in a decrease in the cost-to-revenue ratio to 86.7% [7] - Free cash flow increased by 70% year-on-year to 22.3 billion yuan, providing a solid foundation for dividends and share buybacks [9] - The company plans to repurchase shares with a total amount not less than 500 million yuan and not exceeding 1 billion yuan, with a buyback price capped at 60 yuan per share [9] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 319.06 billion yuan, 354.32 billion yuan, and 390.61 billion yuan, with growth rates of 12%, 11%, and 10% respectively [10][11] - Net profit projections for the same period are 11.796 billion yuan, 13.520 billion yuan, and 15.319 billion yuan, with growth rates of 16%, 15%, and 13% respectively [10][11] - The report highlights the company's commitment to shareholder returns and the potential for value creation through strategic initiatives [9][11]