Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The global market for Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) drugs is expected to reach $37 billion by 2030, with major pharmaceutical companies investing in this area [4][26] - There is a significant unmet clinical need for new therapies due to the complexity of IBD mechanisms and the high percentage of patients who do not respond to initial treatments [4][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of new targets and mechanisms in drug development, particularly focusing on TL1A, which has garnered interest from multiple multinational corporations (MNCs) [4][32] Summary by Sections IBD Treatment Overview - IBD includes Ulcerative Colitis (UC) and Crohn's Disease (CD), affecting over 3 million patients in the US and Europe, with no current cure available [4][10] - The market for IBD drugs is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.88% from $23.26 billion in 2022 to $37 billion by 2030 [26][29] Market Dynamics - The sales proportion of TNF inhibitors is declining, while IL-23 inhibitors and JAK inhibitors are increasing in sales [4][29] - Ustekinumab is expected to contribute approximately $7.8 billion to the market by 2024, while Vedolizumab is projected to reach $6.107 billion [4][29] Clinical Needs and Drug Development - There is a pressing need for new therapies as up to 30% of patients do not respond to initial treatments, and 40% lose response over time [4][18] - The report suggests focusing on new targets and mechanisms, including companies like Abivax, Chenxin Pharmaceutical, and others for potential investment opportunities [4][32] Long-term Investment Strategy - The report recommends a strategic focus on leading innovative drug companies and those involved in the development of new therapies for IBD, highlighting companies such as Innovent Biologics, BeiGene, and others [4][32] - The report also notes the potential for significant market transactions in the IBD space, with several deals exceeding $5 billion in value [4][30]

（来源：研报虎） 创新药周专题：炎性肠病(Inflammatory Bowel Disease,IBD)包括溃疡性结肠炎(Ulcerative Colitis,UC)和克 罗恩病(Crohn Disease,CD)，美国和欧美高发，超过300万患者。发病机制仍不清晰，腹泻、腹痛、发热 的症状严重到肠穿孔等致命并发症。IBD目前没有治愈疗法，轻-中度CD患者仍以糖皮质激素或传统免 疫抑制剂为一线诱导，中-重度活动期的一线生物制剂则以抗-TNF(英夫利西单抗、阿达木单抗)最具优 势，因其起效快、黏膜愈合证据充分且长期数据最完整。当抗-TNF疗效不佳、失应答或出现副作用 时，临床主要转向维得利珠单抗、乌司奴单抗、利生奇珠单抗或JAK1抑制剂作为二线及后线方案。虽 然生物靶向疗法对许多患者有效，但依然有高达30%的患者对初始治疗没有反应，高达40%的患者随着 时间的推移反应消失。对新机制新疗法的需求急迫，可延长IBD患者治疗时间和寿命。 IBD全球药物市场规模预计2030年有望达到370亿美金，艾伯维、强生、礼来、武田、默沙东、辉瑞、 赛诺菲等TOPMNC均有布局IBD领域。在目前已获批靶向药物治疗中，TNF单抗销售 ...