Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report This week, the ex - warehouse speed of late Fuji apples in production areas was slow, and the trading atmosphere was light. The arrival volume in the sales area decreased, and the sales were affected by substitutes. The inventory was at a low level compared to the same period last year, and the demand was average. It is expected that the apple price will fluctuate at a high level. The apple fundamentals are relatively strong due to the decline in production, poor high - quality fruit rate, and low cold - storage inventory [7][12][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Apple Spot Analysis - This week, the ex - warehouse speed of late Fuji apples in production areas was slow. The price in Gansu and Liaoning decreased, and other production areas were stable. The sales area's arrival volume decreased, and the sales were affected by citrus fruits [7]. - In Shandong, the ex - warehouse atmosphere was not strong, with sporadic transactions. In Shaanxi, the shipment was relatively cold, and the low - price goods were sold well [7]. - Main production area prices: In Penglai, 65 - 70 general goods were 2.2 - 2.3 yuan/jin, and 75 first - and second - grade fruit farmers' goods were 3.4 - 3.6 yuan/jin. In Qixia, 80 above cream Fuji was 1.8 - 2.2 yuan/jin, and late Fuji 80 first - and second - grade slice - red fruit farmers' goods were 3.7 - 4.5 yuan/jin. In Luochuan, 70 above semi - commercial fruit farmers' goods were 4.0 - 4.3 yuan/jin, and high - grade inferior goods were 2.2 yuan/jin [7]. 3.2 Supply Analysis - As of December 11, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 54.65%, 7.22 percentage points lower than the same period last year. This week, the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.35 percentage points, and the de - stocking rate was 2.17%. The cold - storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 55.09%, and it decreased by 0.24 percentage points. The cold - storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi was 53.12%, and it decreased by 0.36 percentage points [12]. - As of December 10, 2025, the national main production area apple cold - storage inventory was 758.55 million tons, a decrease of 4.97 million tons from last week [12]. 3.3 Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of early - morning arrivals decreased. The market was generally light, and the enthusiasm of second - and third - level wholesalers to purchase was not high [15]. - On December 11, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits was 7.51 yuan/kg, slightly higher than last Friday, at a high level in recent years [15]. - During the 2025 - 2026 production season's purchase stage, the profit statistics of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants were suspended [15]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading logic: The apple production decreased this year, the high - quality fruit rate was poor, the preservation was difficult, and the cold - storage inventory data was low. The cold - storage apple inventory peak was at a low level in the same period over the years, and the apple quality was relatively poor. So, the effective inventory is likely to be low, and the apple fundamentals are strong [16]. - Unilateral: The new apple quality is relatively poor, which supports the price, but the recent demand is average. It is expected that the apple trend will mainly fluctuate at a high level [16]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [16]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - As of December 3, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas of China was 763.51 tons, a decrease of 3.24 tons compared to the previous week. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 53.97%, down 0.23% from the previous week, and in Shaanxi it was 58.21%, also down 0.23% from the previous week. Shandong's出库 performance was slow with limited in - warehouse transactions. In Shaanxi, farmers' willingness to sell was still low. The arrival volume in the sales area increased slightly, but the trading atmosphere was still light, with overstock in transit warehouses. Citrus fruits impacted the apple market, and there was an increased risk of price decline due to slow terminal sales [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract was 9,465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 7,764 lots, and the main contract's open interest was 132,145 lots, an increase of 5,972 lots [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bag, above 75) was 5.25 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bag, above 75) it was 2.6 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bag, above 70 semi - commercial) it was 4.2 yuan/jin; and in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bag, above 80, first - grade second - class fruit farmers' goods) it was 4 yuan/jin, with no changes in all cases [2]. Upstream Situation - The annual apple production in China was 5,128.51 million tons, and the production of second - grade fruit farmers' goods was 168.34 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The weekly apple wholesale price was 9.38 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.07 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan. The total national apple cold - storage inventory was 763.51 tons, a decrease of 3.24 tons. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 0.54, and in Shaanxi it was 0.58, with no changes. The monthly apple export volume was 80,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. The monthly year - on - year apple export amount decreased by 14.3%, a decrease of 5.8 percentage points. The monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts was 1,334,364 million US dollars, a decrease of 503,616 million US dollars. The weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bag apples (80) was 0 yuan/jin [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears was 6.76 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.05 yuan; of watermelons was 6 yuan/kg, with no change; of bananas was 5.41 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan. The average daily morning arrival volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market was 17.2 vehicles, an increase of 1.2 vehicles; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market was 19.6 vehicles, an increase of 0.4 vehicles; and at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market was 26.8 vehicles, an increase of 1.6 vehicles [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples was 22.62%, a decrease of 0.32 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.63%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The overall trading speed in apple - producing areas was slow. In Shandong and Shaanxi, the number of inquiring merchants increased slightly, but most were on the sidelines, mainly with merchants' self - picked shipments. The market price changed little. In Gansu, some merchants continued to pick high - quality stored Fuji apples, with a general sales speed and stable prices. The overall transaction of late - season Fuji apples remained light, with limited orders from merchants in the producing areas. In the western producing areas, there were mainly small - volume shipments of farmers' two - grade goods [2].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Apple Weekly Report: Low Cold Storage Fruit Volume Supports Fruit Prices [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F3013727 [1] - Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0014425 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis Spot Analysis - This week, the overall transaction of late Fuji apples remained light. In the producing areas, orders from merchants were limited. In the western producing areas, small - quantity shipments of polar fruits from fruit farmers were the main source, and some merchants supplied the market with their self - stored goods. In Shandong, the foreign trade channel purchasing slowed down, and the transaction of small fruits decreased. In the sales areas, the number of incoming trucks increased slightly, but the trading atmosphere was still light, and there was a slight backlog in the transfer warehouses. Citrus fruits affected the sales of apples [7]. - In Shandong, the overall transaction was slow, and the price of fruit farmers' goods remained stable. The foreign trade channel continued to look for goods but at a slower pace, mainly for 65 - 75 small fruits. The ex - warehouse price of 80 first - and second - grade slice - red fruit farmers' goods in Qixia was 3.7 - 4.5 yuan/jin, with few transactions; the ex - warehouse price of 65 and 70 small fruits in Penglai was 2 - 2.2 yuan/jin. In Shaanxi, fruit farmers' willingness to ship was still low. In Luochuan, merchants mainly packed their own goods and sent them through their own channels, with a small amount of purchasing from fruit farmers' polar fruits. In Weinan, sporadic shipments occurred, and the sales of high - grade inferior fruits were okay, but the purchase of good fruits from fruit farmers by merchants was limited. The current price of semi - commercial fruits from fruit farmers above 70 in Luochuan was around 4.0 - 4.3 yuan/jin, and high - grade inferior fruits were around 2.2 yuan/jin. In Baishui, the mainstream ex - warehouse price of fruit farmers' general goods was about 3.2 - 3.4 yuan/jin [7]. Supply Analysis - As of December 4, 2025, the national cold storage inventory ratio was about 55.00%, 7.68 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From November 27 to December 3, 2025, the national cold storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.38 percentage points, the single - week ex - warehouse volume increased by 0.07 percentage points compared with last week, and the inventory removal rate was 1.55%. The shipment in Shaanxi and Gansu slowed down, but the inventory in surrounding areas such as Shanxi changed from increasing to decreasing, so the national cold storage inventory shipment increased slightly compared with last week. The cold storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 55.33%, and it decreased by 0.28 percentage points this week. The ex - warehouse in Shandong was mainly for export and the sales of other varieties, and the market shipment was small. The cold storage transaction volume was average, the transaction volume of small and medium - sized fruits decreased, and the packaging also decreased slightly. The ex - warehouse in Shaanxi was 53.48%, and it decreased by 0.41 percentage points this week. The cold storage transaction and shipment volume decreased compared with last week due to the off - season and the impact of citrus [12]. - As of December 3, 2025, the apple cold storage inventory in the national main producing areas was 7.6351 million tons, a decrease of 32,400 tons compared with last week [12]. Demand Analysis - In the Chalong market in Guangdong, the number of incoming trucks in the morning increased compared with last week, with an average of about 26.80 trucks per day. The mainstream price of Shandong 80 late Fuji in baskets was 3.8 - 4 yuan/jin, and in boxes was 4.5 - 5.5 yuan/jin. The price of Luochuan late Fuji in baskets starting from 70 was 4.0 - 5.5 yuan/jin, and that of Jingning late Fuji in boxes starting from 70 was 5.8 - 7.5 yuan/jin. Recently, the number of incoming trucks in the market increased slightly, but the sales slowed down compared with the previous period. The goods from Gansu sold well, while the sales of other goods were average. The purchasing enthusiasm of second - and third - level wholesalers was not high, and there was pressure on daily digestion, with an increase in the backlog in transfer warehouses [15]. - According to the data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on December 4, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits was 7.31 yuan/kg, slightly higher than last Friday, and it was at a high level in the same period in recent years [15]. - In the 2025 - 2026 production season, during the acquisition stage, the profit statistics of 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants in Qixia were suspended [15]. Group 3: Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: This year, the apple production decreased, the high - quality fruit rate was poor, and the preservation difficulty increased. The market expected that the cold storage inventory data was likely to be low. The peak cold storage apple inventory this year was at a low level in the same period over the years, and the apple quality was relatively poor, so the effective inventory was expected to be low, and the apple fundamentals were strong [16]. - Unilateral: The relatively poor quality of new apples supports the fruit price, and the demand is average. It is expected that the apple trend will be mainly high - level oscillation [16]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [16]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [16]. Group 4: Weekly Data Tracking Apple Supply and Demand - The chart shows the consumption, deep - processing volume, production, export, and planting area of apples from 2018 to 2023 [20]. Inventory and Shipment - The chart shows the cold storage inventory trends of apples in the whole country, Shandong, and Shaanxi from 2017/18 to 2025/26, as well as the national apple cold storage ex - warehouse trend from 2016/17 to 2024/25 [23][24][25]. Spread and Basis - The chart shows the 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 10 spread, 10 - 1 spread, and the basis of January, May, and October from 2019 to 2025 [28].