研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 12 月 25 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日价 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作目价 | 涨跌 | | 相 | | | | | | 成 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 109.01 | 108.70 | 0.31 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 | | 逢莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.75 | 7.79 | -0.04 | | 期货价格 | | | | | | | | | 指标 | ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Apple Weekly Report: Low Cold Storage Fruit Volume Supports Fruit Prices [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F3013727 [1] - Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0014425 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis Spot Analysis - This week, the overall transaction of late Fuji apples remained light. In the producing areas, orders from merchants were limited. In the western producing areas, small - quantity shipments of polar fruits from fruit farmers were the main source, and some merchants supplied the market with their self - stored goods. In Shandong, the foreign trade channel purchasing slowed down, and the transaction of small fruits decreased. In the sales areas, the number of incoming trucks increased slightly, but the trading atmosphere was still light, and there was a slight backlog in the transfer warehouses. Citrus fruits affected the sales of apples [7]. - In Shandong, the overall transaction was slow, and the price of fruit farmers' goods remained stable. The foreign trade channel continued to look for goods but at a slower pace, mainly for 65 - 75 small fruits. The ex - warehouse price of 80 first - and second - grade slice - red fruit farmers' goods in Qixia was 3.7 - 4.5 yuan/jin, with few transactions; the ex - warehouse price of 65 and 70 small fruits in Penglai was 2 - 2.2 yuan/jin. In Shaanxi, fruit farmers' willingness to ship was still low. In Luochuan, merchants mainly packed their own goods and sent them through their own channels, with a small amount of purchasing from fruit farmers' polar fruits. In Weinan, sporadic shipments occurred, and the sales of high - grade inferior fruits were okay, but the purchase of good fruits from fruit farmers by merchants was limited. The current price of semi - commercial fruits from fruit farmers above 70 in Luochuan was around 4.0 - 4.3 yuan/jin, and high - grade inferior fruits were around 2.2 yuan/jin. In Baishui, the mainstream ex - warehouse price of fruit farmers' general goods was about 3.2 - 3.4 yuan/jin [7]. Supply Analysis - As of December 4, 2025, the national cold storage inventory ratio was about 55.00%, 7.68 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From November 27 to December 3, 2025, the national cold storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.38 percentage points, the single - week ex - warehouse volume increased by 0.07 percentage points compared with last week, and the inventory removal rate was 1.55%. The shipment in Shaanxi and Gansu slowed down, but the inventory in surrounding areas such as Shanxi changed from increasing to decreasing, so the national cold storage inventory shipment increased slightly compared with last week. The cold storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 55.33%, and it decreased by 0.28 percentage points this week. The ex - warehouse in Shandong was mainly for export and the sales of other varieties, and the market shipment was small. The cold storage transaction volume was average, the transaction volume of small and medium - sized fruits decreased, and the packaging also decreased slightly. The ex - warehouse in Shaanxi was 53.48%, and it decreased by 0.41 percentage points this week. The cold storage transaction and shipment volume decreased compared with last week due to the off - season and the impact of citrus [12]. - As of December 3, 2025, the apple cold storage inventory in the national main producing areas was 7.6351 million tons, a decrease of 32,400 tons compared with last week [12]. Demand Analysis - In the Chalong market in Guangdong, the number of incoming trucks in the morning increased compared with last week, with an average of about 26.80 trucks per day. The mainstream price of Shandong 80 late Fuji in baskets was 3.8 - 4 yuan/jin, and in boxes was 4.5 - 5.5 yuan/jin. The price of Luochuan late Fuji in baskets starting from 70 was 4.0 - 5.5 yuan/jin, and that of Jingning late Fuji in boxes starting from 70 was 5.8 - 7.5 yuan/jin. Recently, the number of incoming trucks in the market increased slightly, but the sales slowed down compared with the previous period. The goods from Gansu sold well, while the sales of other goods were average. The purchasing enthusiasm of second - and third - level wholesalers was not high, and there was pressure on daily digestion, with an increase in the backlog in transfer warehouses [15]. - According to the data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on December 4, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits was 7.31 yuan/kg, slightly higher than last Friday, and it was at a high level in the same period in recent years [15]. - In the 2025 - 2026 production season, during the acquisition stage, the profit statistics of 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants in Qixia were suspended [15]. Group 3: Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: This year, the apple production decreased, the high - quality fruit rate was poor, and the preservation difficulty increased. The market expected that the cold storage inventory data was likely to be low. The peak cold storage apple inventory this year was at a low level in the same period over the years, and the apple quality was relatively poor, so the effective inventory was expected to be low, and the apple fundamentals were strong [16]. - Unilateral: The relatively poor quality of new apples supports the fruit price, and the demand is average. It is expected that the apple trend will be mainly high - level oscillation [16]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [16]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [16]. Group 4: Weekly Data Tracking Apple Supply and Demand - The chart shows the consumption, deep - processing volume, production, export, and planting area of apples from 2018 to 2023 [20]. Inventory and Shipment - The chart shows the cold storage inventory trends of apples in the whole country, Shandong, and Shaanxi from 2017/18 to 2025/26, as well as the national apple cold storage ex - warehouse trend from 2016/17 to 2024/25 [23][24][25]. Spread and Basis - The chart shows the 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 10 spread, 10 - 1 spread, and the basis of January, May, and October from 2019 to 2025 [28].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an Apple Daily in the Agricultural Products R & D Report on November 27, 2024 [1] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - The Fuji apple price index is 106.38, up 0.02 from the previous workday; the average wholesale price of 6 fruits is 7.31, up 0.22 [2] - The price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70 is 4.15, unchanged; the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 is unavailable; the price of Penglai first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 is 3.75, unchanged; the price of Yiyuan paper - bagged 70 is 2.40, unchanged [2] Futures Prices - AP01 is 9529, down 2 from yesterday's close; AP05 is 9612, up 70; AP10 is 8400, up 10 [2] - AP01 - AP05 is - 83, down 72; AP05 - AP10 is 1212, up 60; AP10 - AP01 is - 1129, up 12 [2] Basis - The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 against AP01, AP05, and AP10 is unavailable [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Transaction Logic - This year, apple production has declined, the high - quality fruit rate is poor, and preservation is more difficult. Market expectations are that the cold - storage inventory data will likely be low. As of November 12, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas is 7642400 tons, an increase of 658100 tons from last week, 905400 tons lower than the same period last year, a decline of 10.59% [6] - It is likely that this year's cold - storage apple inventory peak will be lower than last year, and the apple quality is relatively poor, so the effective inventory is expected to be low. The apple fundamentals are strong, but considering the large fluctuations at the current position of the futures market, it is recommended to exit and wait and see [6] Transaction Strategy - Unilateral: The apple fundamentals are strong, but there have been large recent fluctuations. It is recommended to exit and wait and see [9] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [9] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [9] Other Information - In September 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 9700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.10%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 108100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.49%. In September 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 70800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.32% [8] - Yesterday, the transaction price in the origin was stable. In the Shandong production area, small and medium - sized fruits were traded in the cold storage, and the trading volume of other specifications was small. In the Northwest production area, there were not many cold - storage speculators, and the current transactions were mainly for market customers. Merchants concentrated on purchasing in the Xianyang and Gansu production areas, and the trading volume in the Weinan and northern Shaanxi areas was small. The market arrivals increased slightly, overall stable, and the mainstream price was stable [8] - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants is 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from last week [8] - The mainstream transaction price of semi - commercial apple cold - storage goods above 70 in Luochuan, Yan'an, Shaanxi is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per catty, priced according to quality. The cold - storage transactions are average, merchants mainly pack their own goods, and the procurement volume has decreased [8] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes 10 figures, such as the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, AP contract basis, and national cold - storage apple inventory [11][14][17][19][26]

Report Title - Apple Weekly: New Phase Inbound Volume Announced, Apple Prices Stable with a Slight Increase [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This year, apple production has declined, the high - quality fruit rate is poor, and preservation is more difficult. Market expectations are that cold - storage inbound data will likely be lower. The peak cold - storage apple inventory this year is likely to be lower than last year, and the available inventory is expected to be low, so the apple fundamentals are strong. One can consider buying on dips for unilateral trading, while for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [15] Summary by Directory Part 1: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - This week, the inbound work of new - season late - maturing Fuji apples is nearing completion, mainly concentrated in western Shandong Qixia and Shanxi Yuncheng. Outbound work has started, mainly for foreign - trade goods and some merchants replenishing the market. The sales area market is in the off - season, with a weak trading atmosphere. The increasing supply of citrus fruits is squeezing the apple sales space. - In the Shandong production area, the ground trading is ending, and the inbound work continues. The inbound of farmers' goods has significantly increased. The prices of different grades of late - maturing Fuji vary, with standard first - and second - grade goods being scarce. - In the Shaanxi production area, the late - maturing Fuji trading is ending, and the inbound work is ongoing but at a slower pace. The remaining supply quality has declined, and the trading price has slightly decreased. The purchasing enthusiasm of merchants is average [7] 2. Supply Analysis - As of November 13, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is about 55.87%, 7.52 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with a storage volume of 735.77 million tons, 12.13% lower than last year. - In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio is 55.47%, an increase of 6.52 percentage points this week. The inbound is mainly in western Qixia. The proportion of high - quality first - and second - grade goods is low, and the proportion of general and third - grade fruits is high. - In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio is 54.63%, an increase of 2.07 percentage points this week. There is obvious goods flow between different production areas, and the inventory in Luochuan has increased significantly. - In Gansu, the cold - storage capacity ratio is 69.28%, a decrease of 2.10 percentage points this week. There is both inbound and outbound, and the number of cold - storage seeking merchants is large [11] 3. Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of early - morning arrival vehicles has changed little. The prices of different varieties of apples vary, and the purchasing enthusiasm of second - and third - level wholesalers is average. The new - season late - maturing Fuji has slow sales, and there is pressure on daily digestion and inventory backlog. - On November 13, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits is 7.32 yuan per kilogram, slightly higher than last Friday, at a medium - high level in recent years. - For the 2025 - 2026 production season in the acquisition stage, the profit statistics of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples have been suspended [14] 4. Trading Strategies - Trading Logic: Apple production has declined this year, the high - quality fruit rate is poor, and cold - storage inventory is expected to be low. The apple fundamentals are strong. - Unilateral: Considering the strong apple fundamentals and the recent increase in spot prices, one can consider buying on dips. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [15] Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking 1. Apple Supply - Demand Situation - Data on apple export, planting area, consumption, and production are presented in the form of charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [19] 2. Inventory and Shipment - Data on national and Shandong cold - storage apple inventory trends and national cold - storage apple outbound trends are presented in the form of charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [22] 3. Spread and Basis - Data on different spread and basis (such as 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 10 spread, 1 - month basis, 5 - month basis, 10 - month basis) over the years are presented in the form of charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [26]