农产品日报 | 2025-12-12 苹果产区交易清淡，红枣新货价差较大 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9505元/吨，较前一日变动-5元/吨，幅度-0.05%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1305，较前一日变动+5；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1105，较前一日变动+5。 近期市场资讯，晚富士库存富士主流行情维持稳定，部分产区价格随质量下滑偏弱运行，整体成交氛围不旺。西 部产区客商零星寻货，多以果农两级货源为主，成交有限，甘肃部分产区果农一般货源开始交易，价格区间随质 量下滑略降低，成交尚可；部分客商包装自存货源补充市场。山东产区零星出库，外贸渠道小果走货放缓，少量 维纳斯、奶油果按需出库，其余货源基本尚未开始交易。栖霞80#一二级片红果农意向成交价3.7-4.5元/斤，65#、 70#出库价格1.8-2.2元/斤附近。陕西洛川产区果农货半商品出库价格3.8-4.3元/斤。甘肃产区静宁果农一般通货出库 价格3.7-4.5元 ...

Report Investment Rating - The strategy for both apple and red date is neutral [4][9] Core Viewpoints - For apples, the current price reflects the expectations of the storage volume and structure. Future focus should be on terminal market consumption recovery, the impact of the differentiated storage structure, and the dynamics of merchants' inventory transfers before the Spring Festival. The market is in a off - season, and caution is needed when chasing high prices [4] - For red dates, if the sales situation in the distribution areas improves, the price may rebound during the consumption peak season. However, due to the large inventory of two seasons, the upward rebound space is expected to be limited [9] Summary by Directory Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract yesterday was 9,465 yuan/ton, a change of - 41 yuan/ton or - 0.43% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.20 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP05 - 1265 in Qixia and AP05 - 1065 in Luochuan both increased by 41 from the previous day [1] Recent Market Information - The mainstream price of stored late Fuji remains stable. In some western producing areas, the price of below - average goods is slightly weak. The overall transaction is on - demand, and the shipment is slow. The arrival of goods in the sales areas increases, but the overall shipment is not fast, and the inventory pressure still exists [2][3] - The new - season late Fuji storage in the producing areas has ended, with the storage volume more than 10% lower than the same period last year. The merchants are generally optimistic. The inventory decreased last week, and the overall shipment is average [3] - The consumption is mainly on - demand due to the seasonal off - season, and the trading atmosphere is still light. The increasing supply of citrus fruits squeezes the apple sales space, and the sentiment in the sales areas is relatively pessimistic [3] Market Analysis - The apple futures price showed a volatile downward trend yesterday. The trading sentiment in the producing areas is not high, and the shipment of inventory goods is slow. The arrival of goods in the sales areas increases, but the overall shipment is not fast, and the inventory pressure still exists [3] Strategy - Be neutral. The current expectations of storage volume and structure have been reflected in the price. Future focus should be on terminal market consumption recovery, the impact of the differentiated storage structure, and the dynamics of merchants' inventory transfers before the Spring Festival. It is expected that the large - scale stocking for the Christmas and New Year holidays has not started this week, and the market is still in an off - season. Caution is needed when chasing high prices [4] Red Date Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 9,235 yuan/ton, a change of + 55 yuan/ton or + 0.60% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujube in Hebei was 8.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 635 decreased by 55 from the previous day [5] Recent Market Information - The acquisition of grey jujube in Xinjiang is nearing completion, with little remaining supply in each producing area. High - quality goods have a tail - end price increase trend. The acquisition of raw materials in the producing areas is based on quality, adhering to the principle of high - quality and high - price [6][7] - On December 8, the trading in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market was mainly of new goods. After the new - season harvest, the goods gradually returned to the factory for processing. With the clear procurement cost of merchants at the end of the acquisition in the producing areas, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased, and the price was strong [7] - In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 7 trucks of goods arrived. The market supply was sufficient, and downstream merchants purchased on - demand. The morning trading was average [7] Market Analysis - The red date futures price rose slightly yesterday. The acquisition in each producing area is nearing completion, with little remaining supply. The raw material acquisition adheres to the principle of pricing by quality. The trading in the sales areas is mainly of new goods, and the spot price is relatively firm [8] - The acquisition of grey jujube in Xinjiang is about 90% complete, and the price in the producing areas has stopped falling and stabilized, with the cost gradually becoming clear. The price in the sales areas has also stabilized. With the increasing downstream procurement, some holders have tentatively increased their quotes slightly [8] - The inventory of 36 sample points has increased significantly, and the combined inventory of the two seasons is at the highest level in recent years. The inventory pressure is large, the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated, and the market's future expectations are relatively pessimistic [8] Strategy - Be neutral. If the sales situation in the distribution areas improves, the red date price may rebound during the consumption peak season. However, due to the large inventory of two seasons, the upward rebound space is expected to be limited [9]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Apple Weekly Report: Low Cold Storage Fruit Volume Supports Fruit Prices [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F3013727 [1] - Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0014425 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis Spot Analysis - This week, the overall transaction of late Fuji apples remained light. In the producing areas, orders from merchants were limited. In the western producing areas, small - quantity shipments of polar fruits from fruit farmers were the main source, and some merchants supplied the market with their self - stored goods. In Shandong, the foreign trade channel purchasing slowed down, and the transaction of small fruits decreased. In the sales areas, the number of incoming trucks increased slightly, but the trading atmosphere was still light, and there was a slight backlog in the transfer warehouses. Citrus fruits affected the sales of apples [7]. - In Shandong, the overall transaction was slow, and the price of fruit farmers' goods remained stable. The foreign trade channel continued to look for goods but at a slower pace, mainly for 65 - 75 small fruits. The ex - warehouse price of 80 first - and second - grade slice - red fruit farmers' goods in Qixia was 3.7 - 4.5 yuan/jin, with few transactions; the ex - warehouse price of 65 and 70 small fruits in Penglai was 2 - 2.2 yuan/jin. In Shaanxi, fruit farmers' willingness to ship was still low. In Luochuan, merchants mainly packed their own goods and sent them through their own channels, with a small amount of purchasing from fruit farmers' polar fruits. In Weinan, sporadic shipments occurred, and the sales of high - grade inferior fruits were okay, but the purchase of good fruits from fruit farmers by merchants was limited. The current price of semi - commercial fruits from fruit farmers above 70 in Luochuan was around 4.0 - 4.3 yuan/jin, and high - grade inferior fruits were around 2.2 yuan/jin. In Baishui, the mainstream ex - warehouse price of fruit farmers' general goods was about 3.2 - 3.4 yuan/jin [7]. Supply Analysis - As of December 4, 2025, the national cold storage inventory ratio was about 55.00%, 7.68 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From November 27 to December 3, 2025, the national cold storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.38 percentage points, the single - week ex - warehouse volume increased by 0.07 percentage points compared with last week, and the inventory removal rate was 1.55%. The shipment in Shaanxi and Gansu slowed down, but the inventory in surrounding areas such as Shanxi changed from increasing to decreasing, so the national cold storage inventory shipment increased slightly compared with last week. The cold storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 55.33%, and it decreased by 0.28 percentage points this week. The ex - warehouse in Shandong was mainly for export and the sales of other varieties, and the market shipment was small. The cold storage transaction volume was average, the transaction volume of small and medium - sized fruits decreased, and the packaging also decreased slightly. The ex - warehouse in Shaanxi was 53.48%, and it decreased by 0.41 percentage points this week. The cold storage transaction and shipment volume decreased compared with last week due to the off - season and the impact of citrus [12]. - As of December 3, 2025, the apple cold storage inventory in the national main producing areas was 7.6351 million tons, a decrease of 32,400 tons compared with last week [12]. Demand Analysis - In the Chalong market in Guangdong, the number of incoming trucks in the morning increased compared with last week, with an average of about 26.80 trucks per day. The mainstream price of Shandong 80 late Fuji in baskets was 3.8 - 4 yuan/jin, and in boxes was 4.5 - 5.5 yuan/jin. The price of Luochuan late Fuji in baskets starting from 70 was 4.0 - 5.5 yuan/jin, and that of Jingning late Fuji in boxes starting from 70 was 5.8 - 7.5 yuan/jin. Recently, the number of incoming trucks in the market increased slightly, but the sales slowed down compared with the previous period. The goods from Gansu sold well, while the sales of other goods were average. The purchasing enthusiasm of second - and third - level wholesalers was not high, and there was pressure on daily digestion, with an increase in the backlog in transfer warehouses [15]. - According to the data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on December 4, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits was 7.31 yuan/kg, slightly higher than last Friday, and it was at a high level in the same period in recent years [15]. - In the 2025 - 2026 production season, during the acquisition stage, the profit statistics of 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants in Qixia were suspended [15]. Group 3: Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: This year, the apple production decreased, the high - quality fruit rate was poor, and the preservation difficulty increased. The market expected that the cold storage inventory data was likely to be low. The peak cold storage apple inventory this year was at a low level in the same period over the years, and the apple quality was relatively poor, so the effective inventory was expected to be low, and the apple fundamentals were strong [16]. - Unilateral: The relatively poor quality of new apples supports the fruit price, and the demand is average. It is expected that the apple trend will be mainly high - level oscillation [16]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [16]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [16]. Group 4: Weekly Data Tracking Apple Supply and Demand - The chart shows the consumption, deep - processing volume, production, export, and planting area of apples from 2018 to 2023 [20]. Inventory and Shipment - The chart shows the cold storage inventory trends of apples in the whole country, Shandong, and Shaanxi from 2017/18 to 2025/26, as well as the national apple cold storage ex - warehouse trend from 2016/17 to 2024/25 [23][24][25]. Spread and Basis - The chart shows the 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 10 spread, 10 - 1 spread, and the basis of January, May, and October from 2019 to 2025 [28].

Core Insights - Australia's GDP grew by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 2.1% year-on-year in Q3 2025, marking the 16th consecutive quarter of growth, although the quarterly growth was below market expectations and lower than Q2's 0.7% [1][2] - The growth was primarily driven by domestic final demand, with private investment increasing by 2.9% and household consumption rising by 0.5% [1][2] Economic Performance - Government spending increased by 3% in Q3, while household consumption rose by 0.5% and private sector investment grew by 2.9% [1] - Public sector investment also saw a 3% increase [1] Trade Dynamics - Net trade negatively impacted GDP growth by 0.1 percentage points, as export growth of 1% was offset by import growth of 1.5% [2] - Commodity exports rose by 1.3%, driven by non-farm products, with coal exports recovering from previous shipping delays [2] - Service exports remained flat, primarily due to a 0.6% decline in travel services, influenced by reduced overseas student spending [2] Import Trends - Total imports increased by 2.1%, with intermediate goods imports rising by 4.2% and capital goods imports growing by 6.7%, reflecting increased investment in electronic and communication equipment [2] - Service imports decreased by 0.2%, attributed to fewer Australians traveling with foreign airlines [2] Household Financial Health - Household savings rate increased from 6% in Q2 to 6.4% in Q3, with total disposable income growing by 1.7%, outpacing nominal household spending growth of 1.4% [3] - Strong growth in disposable income was supported by increased employee compensation and robust performance in the domestic stock market, leading to higher pension investment returns [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the efforts of local markets to ensure a stable supply of fresh produce as temperatures drop, focusing on the availability of fruits and vegetables for consumers during the winter season [1]. Group 1: Fruit Supply - In Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, fresh fruits such as oranges and winter jujubes are prominently displayed to attract consumers [4]. - The majority of seasonal fruits are sourced from other provinces, prompting local merchants to enhance preservation during transportation. Current fruit prices in Taiyuan are reported to be stable [7]. - Citrus fruits from Sichuan and Guangxi are particularly popular, marking their peak sales season with a noticeable increase in sales volume [9]. Group 2: Vegetable Supply - In Qingdao, Shandong Province, a large agricultural market is filled with various fresh vegetables, including chili peppers, cabbage, and celery, as consumers actively shop [11]. - This market, being the largest vegetable supply hub in the area, maintains a stable daily supply of over 50 tons of vegetables. Local market management has proactively coordinated with various vegetable planting bases to ensure sufficient supply and stable prices [15].

Core Insights - The 2025 Double Eleven sales report from DreamXiang Technology indicates a significant shift in consumer purchasing behavior towards private domain e-commerce platforms, with strong growth in categories such as apparel, outdoor sports, daily household items, and fresh produce [1][12]. Category Summaries Apparel - Women's clothing continues to lead, with casual shirts and jackets seeing year-on-year growth of 310% and 45% respectively. Men's clothing also shows robust performance, with thermal tops growing over 210% and wool sweaters increasing by more than 30% [1][5]. Outdoor Lifestyle - The outdoor lifestyle trend is gaining momentum, with hiking pants experiencing a 382% increase, fleece jackets rising by 127%, and sports down jackets growing over 53%, highlighting the market potential driven by health-conscious consumer behavior [1][7]. Daily Household and Fresh Produce - Daily household items and fresh produce categories are witnessing rapid growth, with cotton soft towels and laundry detergents increasing by 227% and nearly 90% respectively. In fresh produce, citrus fruits have seen over 95% growth, reflecting consumer preference for quality home living [1][2]. Baby and Personal Care - The baby and personal care categories also show steady growth, with children's cotton shoes and sanitary napkins increasing by 60% and 66% respectively [2]. Brand Performance - Established brands like Aiyilian, with over 25 years in the market, achieved a remarkable 1700% year-on-year sales increase through private domain channels. Other brands such as All Cotton Era and Saitou also reported significant growth of 90% and over 80% respectively [12]. - The emerging brand Tongrenmi achieved a phenomenal 890% growth, marking it as a standout performer during this Double Eleven [12][13]. Technological Integration - DreamXiang Technology's investment in AI technology has enhanced operational efficiency across various domains, including product review, content production, community management, and customer service. The introduction of "WeChat AI Exclusive Customer Service" has improved response times for after-sales issues [13]. Future Outlook - As consumer upgrading continues, private domain e-commerce is poised for further growth. DreamXiang Technology plans to increase investments in new consumption areas, focusing on AI-driven personalized services, cross-border e-commerce models, and sustainable development paths to promote quality domestic products both nationally and globally [13].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has revised down the long-term fiscal surplus expectations from Trump's tariff policies by $1 trillion, raising concerns about U.S. borrowing needs. The tariff revenues are insufficient to offset the impacts of the tax cuts implemented by the Trump administration [3][4]. Group 1: Fiscal Projections - CBO estimates a total surplus of $3 trillion from 2025 to 2035, down from the previous estimate of $4 trillion made in August [5]. - The tax cuts from Trump's administration are projected to increase the fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade [5]. - CBO Director Philip Swagel noted that about two-thirds of the downward revision is due to adjustments based on new data, and recent tariff rate adjustments have also lowered deficit impact estimates [6]. Group 2: Tariff Rates and Revenue - The actual tariff rate is currently estimated to be approximately 16.8%, the highest level since 1935, which is about 14 percentage points higher than a year ago [6]. - For the fiscal year ending September, the U.S. fiscal deficit was $1.78 trillion, with an expected deficit of $1.82 trillion for 2024 [7]. - Higher tariff revenues are expected to cumulatively reduce the budget deficit by $2.5 trillion from 2025 to 2035, saving $500 billion in interest payments due to reduced deficits [7]. Group 3: Trade Agreements and Tariff Adjustments - Recent adjustments to tariff levels aim to alleviate consumer price concerns, with the U.S. considering the removal of tariffs on EU beef and other food products [9]. - The U.S. Department of Agriculture is actively seeking to increase exports to the EU and address trade imbalances, with an annual agricultural trade deficit of $23.6 billion [9]. - If the Supreme Court rules tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) invalid, it could significantly impact fiscal revenue, with potential refunds estimated between $750 billion to $1 trillion [10]. Group 4: Current Tariff Revenue - As of September 30, 2025, the federal government has generated nearly $195 billion in revenue from tariffs for the fiscal year [11].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of fruit in supporting health and longevity, highlighting its nutritional benefits and cultural significance [1][2]. Fruit Recommendations - **Apples**: High in vitamin C, fiber, potassium, and polyphenols, apples support gut health and have anti-cancer properties. There are over 90 varieties in the U.S., with popular ones including Fuji, Gala, and Honeycrisp [3][4]. - **Citrus Fruits**: Rich in vitamins C, A, folate, potassium, and fiber, citrus fruits contain antioxidants that protect cells and support the immune system. Whole fruits are recommended over juice to retain fiber [5][6]. - **Berries**: Low in calories but high in vitamins and antioxidants, berries like blueberries and goji berries are beneficial for brain, heart, and eye health [7][8]. - **Persimmons**: Rich in vitamins A and C, fiber, and polyphenols, persimmons support cholesterol control and promote eye and skin health [8][9]. - **Figs**: High in fiber and phytoestrogens, figs support women's health and aid digestion. They are versatile in culinary uses [10][11]. Nutritional Advice - Emphasize seasonal variety by consuming locally grown, seasonal fruits for better taste and environmental benefits [12]. - Prefer whole, organic fruits to benefit from their skin, pulp, and fiber, which aid digestion and slow sugar absorption [12]. - Encourage mindful eating by savoring fruit to enhance digestion and satisfaction [13]. - Promote a positive attitude towards fruit consumption, especially among children, by highlighting its deliciousness rather than just its health benefits [13]. - Recognize that the natural sugars in fruits are healthier than refined sugars due to their accompanying nutrients [13].

Core Points - The article discusses various foods that are ideal for cooling down during the hot summer days, emphasizing their hydrating and refreshing properties [1][2]. Group 1: Hydrating Foods - Watermelon has a high water content of 92% and provides essential nutrients like vitamins A, B6, C, and antioxidants such as lycopene, making it a perfect choice for hot weather [3]. - Green beans are known for their cooling properties and can help alleviate discomfort caused by high temperatures, aligning with traditional dietary practices [4]. - Cucumbers are recognized for their high water content and low calories, making them an excellent hydrating vegetable [5]. - Celery contains 95% water and is low in calories, rich in vitamins K and C, making it a hidden gem for hydration [10]. - Winter melon has an impressive water content of 97% and helps replenish lost fluids while providing essential nutrients [18]. Group 2: Nutritional Benefits - Pineapple is rich in vitamin C and bromelain, which has anti-inflammatory properties, enhancing immune function and aiding digestion [7]. - Coconut water is a natural electrolyte drink that replenishes minerals lost through sweating, supporting hydration and muscle function [8]. - Citrus fruits like oranges and lemons are high in vitamin C, which boosts the immune system and promotes skin health [12]. - Tomatoes, often mistaken for vegetables, have a water content of 95% and are rich in vitamins A, C, potassium, and antioxidants [13]. - Peaches are hydrating and provide vitamins A, C, and dietary fiber, supporting skin health and digestion [14]. Group 3: Versatile Ingredients - Mint leaves are praised for their refreshing properties and can be used in beverages and dishes to enhance flavor while providing a cooling effect [6]. - Berries, including strawberries and blueberries, are hydrating and rich in antioxidants, making them excellent for summer snacks and desserts [9]. - Colorful bell peppers are not only refreshing but also packed with vitamins A and C, supporting overall health [16]. - Lettuce, while not as nutrient-dense as darker greens, is hydrating and can be paired with various ingredients for a refreshing summer dish [15].

Core Insights - Egypt's agricultural exports have shown significant growth, with total exports exceeding 6.2 million tons by mid-July 2025, an increase of 575,000 tons compared to the same period last year [1] Export Performance - Citrus fruits lead the export volume, exceeding 1.9 million tons [1] - Other notable exports include potatoes at 1.3 million tons, onions at 232,000 tons, grapes at 159,000 tons, and sweet potatoes at 124,000 tons [1] Market Expansion - Egypt has opened 8 new foreign markets for agricultural products, including grapes, pomegranates, mangoes, and potatoes [1] - The growth trend in agricultural exports is attributed to the continuous removal of trade barriers and the exploration of new markets by Egypt [1]