重视新型电力系统建设成长性与电力行业公用事业化：从四季度开始，电力行业受益于分子端在低基数 下今年冬季电力需求有望同比高增+明年长协电价预期改善，行业景气修复信号有望从价格端与业绩端 逐步验证。从136号文细则发布，以及火电报表端已经体现出来的容量电价、辅助服务提供稳定盈利等 视角来看，电力板块公用事业化主线延续，也将促进估值中枢抬升。结合分母端维度上，近期市场风格 向红利价值端切换的概率增加，电力板块配置价值趋于明确。 如何选择投资工具？中证绿色电力指数吸纳了新型电力系统建设的核心受益标的，均衡配置核电、火电 转型企业，2019年以来年化收益率达6.29%（截至2025/10/31），在可比电力指数标的中保持领先。绿 色电力ETF易方达（562960，场外联接A/C: 019058/019059）一键打包风光、水电、火电转型龙头企 业，可以作为把握新型电力系统转型β的优质工具！ 基本面：1、水电秋汛来水超预期，水电基本面迎来重大反转，塑造水电投资机会。观测水文数据，7-8 月汛期来水偏枯，主要流域入库流量同比下降3-5成。测算7-8月长江电力发电量同比下降约27%。值得 重视的是，9月秋汛效果显著叠加基数偏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing significant fluctuations, with a notable decline in trading volume, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors as they await important meetings and quarterly reports [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In the fourth quarter, market behavior tends to shift as institutional investors reassess their profits and year-end bonuses, leading to a more conservative approach to risk-taking [4][5]. - Retail investors are also adopting a cautious stance, either seeking to protect gains or minimize losses after a year of volatility [5][6]. - Historical data shows that in years where the market performs well in the first three quarters, the fourth quarter often sees a style shift, with a focus on stability over high volatility [9][10]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with strong earnings certainty and safe valuations, particularly in the context of this year's bull market [11]. - Value ETFs, such as the one tracking the National Value 100 Index, are highlighted as potential investment vehicles due to their high dividend yield of approximately 5.0% and a low price-to-earnings ratio of 9 [12]. - The financial sector, including banks and insurance companies, is identified as a key area of interest due to its significant market capitalization and relative performance advantages in quarterly reports [12]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The power sector, particularly thermal power, is positioned as a favorable investment opportunity due to recent reforms that enhance profitability despite fluctuating coal prices [16][17]. - Clean energy sectors, including hydropower, nuclear, wind, and solar, are benefiting from policy support and the broader energy transition trend, although they exhibit varying performance based on specific market conditions [18]. - The China Securities Green Power Index, which includes a mix of green energy companies and transitioning thermal power firms, is noted for its strong long-term performance and reasonable valuations, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.59 and a dividend yield of 2.72% [19][22]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming winter season is expected to see increased electricity demand due to colder weather, which may positively impact power companies' performance [24]. - The recent focus on stabilizing electricity prices by regulatory bodies is anticipated to alleviate market concerns regarding future pricing structures [24].

如何选择投资工具？中证绿色电力指数吸纳了新型电力系统建设的核心受益标的，均衡配置核电、火电 转型企业，2019年以来年化收益率达5.96%（截至2025/10/17），在可比电力指数标的中保持领先。绿 色电力ETF易方达（562960，场外联接A/C: 019058/019059）一键打包风光、水电、火电转型龙头企 业，可以作为把握新型电力系统转型β的优质工具！ 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 产业基本面：10月以来北方寒潮天气来袭，气温快速下降，电厂日耗环比大幅回升，在去年冬季用电量 低基数效应下，今年冬季用电需求或将出现同比明显改善。节后需求快速回升下库存显著下降，叠加供 给受降雨等因素影响受限，煤价快速走旺。成本端抬升也有望为明年长协电价修复的形成助力。 产业政策：9月，国资委部分国有企业经济运行座谈会聚焦"稳电价、稳煤价"、防止"内卷式"恶性竞争 等，听取企业意见建议，进一步研究夯实企业高质量发展基础的政策举措。"反内卷"的政策框架内首次 提出"稳电价"，直指当前电力行业的核心矛盾，有望推动形成稳定的电价预期，一定程度缓解此前市场 对于 2026 年年度长协电价 ...