投资小红书-第266期 200倍收益靠运气还是实力？答案或许就藏在这里。 格雷厄姆是一个谨小慎微的投资者，他总是用最保守的方法挑选股票，通过买进价格低于价值的 股票让自己立于不败之地。在格雷厄姆的一生中，他所做的大多数投资都收益较为平稳，但却有 一笔投资格外突出，这笔投资的收益远超200倍，大大超过他20年内通过各种谨小慎微努力所获 得其他所有利润的总和。 投资当中不能否认运气的成分，但运气是建立在实力之上的。格雷厄姆说，人们必须在打下足够 的基础并获得足够的认可之后，这些机会之门才会向其敞开，人们必须具备一定的手段、判断力 和勇气，才能去利用这些机会。 一笔远超200倍的收益 格雷厄姆在《聪明的投资者》第4版后记中写道：我们非常熟悉的两个合伙人，他们一生中花了大 量的时间，打理他们自己以及其他一些人在华尔街的资金。一些冷酷的经验告诉他们，最好做到 安全和细致，而不要企图把世界所有的钱都赚完。 这两位合伙人确立了一种相当独特的证券操作方法，这种方法把较好的盈利性和稳固的价值结合 在一起。他们远离所有看上去已被高估的证券，并且在价格上涨到他们认为不再有吸引力时迅速 将这些证券卖掉。通过这种方法，他们做得相当成功 ...

A股震荡之际，ETF市场却逆势"吸金"。 Wind数据显示，截至2025年12月15日，全市场ETF总规模已达5.78万亿元，较年初暴涨超2万亿元。尤其是市场调整期，资金借道ETF抄底的迹象更明显，仅 11月21日大跌当天，就有近358亿元资金涌入。这些被视为"聪明钱"的资金，流向从来都藏着市场的真实信号。 普通人别再盲目跟风炒股，看懂ETF的资金流向，就能找准未来的投资方向。这3个核心流向，值得重点关注。 先搞懂：为啥聪明钱偏爱ETF？ 关键在于ETF的"天然优势"。 即便部分赛道回调，聪明钱仍在"越跌越买"。 最典型的是科技相关赛道。嘉实上证科创板芯片ETF、华夏中证机器人ETF四季度以来净申购均超44亿元，哪怕同期跌幅超14%，资金依然坚定入场。通信 ETF更是表现亮眼，截至12月5日规模达120.56亿元，其中光模块成分占比超54%，紧扣人工智能算力发展的核心需求。 跨境科技赛道也备受青睐。港股通互联网、港股通创新药、港股通科技等ETF规模均增长超100亿元。随着港股通机制优化，这些高增长科技板块的吸引力 持续提升，成为聪明钱全球化布局的重要方向。 流向三：防御性品种受青睐，震荡市求稳是核心 它透明度 ...

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector, led by artificial intelligence (AI), is on track for a third consecutive year of over 20% gains, but signs of narrowing leadership and increased volatility are emerging, prompting a shift towards defensive stocks to balance risks in tech holdings [1]. Group 1: Defensive Sectors - Traditional defensive sectors such as blue-chip pharmaceuticals, regulated utilities, and essential consumer goods continue to play a significant role in investment strategies [3]. - Quantitative strategist Steven Cress has identified four high-quality defensive stocks that combine durable cash flows, essential services, and key growth metrics, suitable for investment if the tech sector cools down by 2026 [3]. Group 2: Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP.US) - Brookfield Infrastructure operates a global portfolio of high-quality infrastructure assets, generating predictable cash flows largely insulated from economic cycles, supported by long-term contracts linked to inflation [4]. - The company reported a funds from operations (FFO) of $654 million for Q3 2025, with a per unit FFO of $0.83, reflecting a 9% year-over-year growth [5]. - Brookfield aims to distribute 60-70% of its FFO as dividends, targeting a 5-9% annual dividend growth, making it a foundational holding for defensive allocations in 2026 [5][6]. Group 3: Iberdrola (IBDRY.US) - Iberdrola is one of the largest electric utility companies globally, with a strong focus on renewable energy and regulated pricing structures that provide profit visibility [7]. - The company reported a 16.6% year-over-year increase in net profit and a 4.4% growth in adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months of the year, supported by robust cash flow of $15 billion [7]. - Iberdrola offers a solid dividend yield of 3.40%, making it an attractive option for investors seeking stability and gradual growth [8]. Group 4: Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX.US) - Vertex Pharmaceuticals is a biotechnology company known for its leadership in cystic fibrosis and sickle cell disease, providing strong recurring revenue and industry-leading profit growth [9]. - The company has a low price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio of 0.16, indicating an attractive valuation relative to its future earnings growth [9]. - Vertex is diversifying its pipeline beyond cystic fibrosis, which supports its strong forward growth indicators, including a projected EBITDA growth rate of nearly 12% [10]. Group 5: Incyte (INCY.US) - Incyte focuses on oncology and inflammatory diseases, with its flagship product Jakafi being a cornerstone of its revenue and cash flow [11]. - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.20, significantly lower than the industry median, and a PEG ratio of 0.07, indicating strong growth potential at an attractive valuation [11]. - Incyte's recent approval of a treatment option for certain adult follicular lymphomas further supports its growth outlook [11]. Summary - As the technology sector shows signs of fatigue, investors may find better risk-adjusted opportunities in defensive sectors with inherent growth drivers. Brookfield Infrastructure and Iberdrola provide classic, cash flow-driven utility defensive attributes, while Vertex Pharmaceuticals and Incyte enhance the resilience of the healthcare sector [12].

Group 1 - The core sentiment in the U.S. market is dominated by risk aversion as investors withdraw from high-risk equity funds and shift significant capital into safer money market funds ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy announcement [1] - Investors net purchased approximately $104.75 billion in U.S. money market funds in the week ending December 3, marking the largest single-week net inflow since November 5, indicating a highly defensive stance in the market [1] - U.S. equity funds experienced a net sell-off of about $3.52 billion for the second consecutive week, reflecting a growing preference for safer assets amid concerns over high valuations in large-cap tech stocks [1] Group 2 - Despite expectations of potential interest rate cuts typically benefiting the stock market, investors are reducing their exposure to risk assets, with mid-cap stock funds facing net outflows for the seventh consecutive week, totaling $49.492 million [2] - Large-cap and small-cap stock funds also recorded net disposals of $476 million and $1.18 billion, respectively, indicating a widespread cautious sentiment across various market segments [2] - Defensive sectors have shown relative resilience, attracting approximately $510 million in net inflows, with industrial sector funds receiving $510 million and gold and precious metals stock funds garnering $293 million in net inflows [2] Group 3 - The fixed income market reflects a cautious investor attitude, with overall net inflows significantly shrinking [3] - Short- to medium-term investment-grade bond funds attracted $1.45 billion in net inflows, while municipal bond funds saw inflows of $737 million [3] - In contrast, short- to medium-term government and treasury bond funds experienced a reversal, recording outflows of $1.58 billion, indicating a defensive adjustment in bond portfolio allocations [3]

Accessible version Banks - China (H/A) 2026 Year Ahead: defensive anchor with potential upside Price Objective Change Key themes for the China bank sector in 2026 Defensive anchor amid market volatilities in 2026 Equity investors remain constructive on the China market in 2026, supported by global monetary easing, China's steady economic growth, ongoing technological advancement, and the authority's commitment to a "slow-bull" equity market. However, with MSCI China trading at an above-average P/E (~13x), w ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a collective adjustment on October 22, with the Tianhong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159549) showing a slight increase of 0.16% during trading [1] - The Tianhong Dividend Low Volatility ETF has attracted over 81 million yuan in net inflows over the past five trading days, with a latest circulation scale of 3.984 billion yuan and 3.273 billion shares, ranking first among similar products [1] - The Tianhong Bank ETF (515290) also saw a rise of 0.34% and recorded a trading volume exceeding 100 million yuan, indicating active trading [1] Group 2 - The Tianhong Dividend Low Volatility ETF closely tracks the CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index, which selects 100 stocks from the A-share market based on liquidity, continuous dividends, high dividend yield, and low volatility [2] - In the context of increasing market volatility, sectors such as banking and coal have shown stable performance, with the CSI Dividend Index rising by 0.74% on October 20 [2] - Recent data indicates that over 4.2 billion yuan flowed into dividend-themed ETFs last week, as investors sought refuge in bank and coal ETFs [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing significant fluctuations, with a notable decline in trading volume, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors as they await important meetings and quarterly reports [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In the fourth quarter, market behavior tends to shift as institutional investors reassess their profits and year-end bonuses, leading to a more conservative approach to risk-taking [4][5]. - Retail investors are also adopting a cautious stance, either seeking to protect gains or minimize losses after a year of volatility [5][6]. - Historical data shows that in years where the market performs well in the first three quarters, the fourth quarter often sees a style shift, with a focus on stability over high volatility [9][10]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with strong earnings certainty and safe valuations, particularly in the context of this year's bull market [11]. - Value ETFs, such as the one tracking the National Value 100 Index, are highlighted as potential investment vehicles due to their high dividend yield of approximately 5.0% and a low price-to-earnings ratio of 9 [12]. - The financial sector, including banks and insurance companies, is identified as a key area of interest due to its significant market capitalization and relative performance advantages in quarterly reports [12]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The power sector, particularly thermal power, is positioned as a favorable investment opportunity due to recent reforms that enhance profitability despite fluctuating coal prices [16][17]. - Clean energy sectors, including hydropower, nuclear, wind, and solar, are benefiting from policy support and the broader energy transition trend, although they exhibit varying performance based on specific market conditions [18]. - The China Securities Green Power Index, which includes a mix of green energy companies and transitioning thermal power firms, is noted for its strong long-term performance and reasonable valuations, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.59 and a dividend yield of 2.72% [19][22]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming winter season is expected to see increased electricity demand due to colder weather, which may positively impact power companies' performance [24]. - The recent focus on stabilizing electricity prices by regulatory bodies is anticipated to alleviate market concerns regarding future pricing structures [24].

Group 1 - Digital assets are under pressure as traders await Powell's highly anticipated speech on Friday [1] - Data shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have seen outflows for four consecutive trading days, with a total withdrawal of $1.9 billion [1] - The momentum driven by companies accumulating crypto assets appears to be weakening [1] Group 2 - Options trading activity indicates a shift towards defensive strategies, with the put/call ratio for contracts expiring on August 22 rising to 1.33 [1] - There will be $3.8 billion worth of Bitcoin options expiring, with the largest open interest concentrated on $110,000 put options, reflecting market concerns about a short-term pullback [1] - Peter Chung, head of research at Presto, notes that the market is more sensitive to hawkish signals from Powell than dovish ones, as investors position themselves for uncertainty surrounding the speech [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oaktree Capital Management co-founder Howard Marks warns that the U.S. stock market is in the "early stages" of a bubble, despite not yet reaching a critical point for a pullback [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Marks highlights that current prices are too high, reminiscent of the late 1990s when the market was overly enthusiastic about tech stocks, leading to Alan Greenspan's warning of "irrational exuberance" [1] - He notes that the last significant market adjustment occurred 16 years ago, indicating a long period without major corrections [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Marks suggests that it is time to increase defensive positions in investment portfolios, advocating for credit products over stocks as a defensive strategy [1] - He acknowledges that while bond spreads are tight, credit investments still offer more defensiveness compared to equities [1] Group 3: Global Investment Environment - Despite a slight deterioration in the fundamental investment environment in the U.S., Marks asserts that it remains the best investment location globally, citing a lack of vitality and ideal regulatory conditions in other regions [1]

Core Insights - Berkshire Hathaway's recent quarterly report revealed a significant reduction in its Apple holdings, with a sale of 20 million shares, resulting in a $4.1 billion decrease in market value [3] - The company is shifting its investment strategy from technology stocks to traditional sectors such as healthcare and steel, indicating a potential defensive posture in response to market conditions [5] Group 1: Apple Holdings - Apple remains Berkshire's largest holding, despite the recent reduction, which reflects a strategic decision rather than a complete divestment [3] - The decision to reduce Apple shares may be influenced by its high price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 30, which could be perceived as overvalued by traditional value investors [3] - The potential increase in capital gains tax in the U.S. may have prompted the early reduction in holdings as a tax planning strategy [3] Group 2: Bank of America - Berkshire reduced its stake in Bank of America by 26 million shares, cutting its holdings by half within a year, which raises concerns about the bank's profitability amid changing interest rate policies [4] - The bank is facing $109 billion in unrealized losses, which could pose significant risks to its financial stability [4] Group 3: New Investments - Berkshire has made new investments in three companies: Nucor Steel, Lennar, and D.R. Horton, all of which are considered "hidden champions" in traditional industries [4] - The real estate sector is currently undervalued, with both Lennar and D.R. Horton trading at a price-to-book ratio below 1, presenting potential buying opportunities [4] - Nucor Steel is positioned well as a leading steel producer, which could benefit from future infrastructure spending [4] Group 4: Healthcare Sector - A notable new investment is in UnitedHealth, with Berkshire acquiring 5 million shares for $1.6 billion, reflecting confidence in the healthcare sector's stability and growth potential [5] - The healthcare industry is characterized by strong customer loyalty and stable cash flows, aligning with Berkshire's investment criteria for companies with a "moat" [5] Group 5: Investment Strategy - The overall trend in Berkshire's portfolio indicates a shift towards defensive sectors such as healthcare, steel, and real estate, suggesting preparation for potential economic downturns [5] - Berkshire's cash reserves have exceeded $150 billion, indicating readiness to capitalize on market opportunities during periods of volatility [5] - The investment strategy emphasizes the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio and being prepared for market fluctuations [6][7]