电力 2026 年 03 月 02 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 电力 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《电改持续深化，电力设备需求有望 延续高景气—电力行业 2026 春季策 略》-2026.2.22 《加快构建现代化基础设施体系，加 大核聚变技术攻关—可控核聚变行业 周报》-2025.12.29 ——行业投资策略 | 王高展（分析师） | 黄懿轩（联系人） | | --- | --- | | wanggaozhan@kysec.cn | huangyixuan1@kysec.cn | huangyixuan1@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070014 行业回顾：红利风格表现不佳，电力需求平稳增长 2025 年，A 股红利风格板块整体表现不佳。2025 年，电力需求维持平稳增长， 我国全社会用电 10.37 万亿千瓦时，同比增长 5.0%。预计十五五期间我国将呈 现"宽电量、紧电力"的电力供需格局，综合电价有望企稳。 电力：电价下探、补贴退坡，电力体制改革步入深水区 《TMTG 并购 ...

Core Viewpoint - The electricity sector has shown strong performance since the beginning of the year, driven by policy reforms and improving fundamentals, indicating significant long-term growth potential and investment opportunities in the sector [1][2]. Policy Drivers - The recent rally in the electricity sector is primarily attributed to policy-driven reforms, including the deepening of the electricity system reform and the establishment of a nationwide unified electricity market [2][3]. - The State Grid Corporation has announced a fixed asset investment plan of 4 trillion yuan for the 14th Five-Year Plan period, marking a 40% increase compared to the previous plan [2]. Financial Performance - The electricity industry's fundamentals are improving, transitioning from a phase of "dual pressure on volume and price" to "stable prices and increased revenue" [4]. - For 2025, Jin控电力 expects a net profit of 155 million to 195 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 383.21% to 507.90%, driven by lower coal prices [4]. - Qian源电力 anticipates a net profit of 567 million to 633 million yuan for 2025, a growth of 160% to 190%, attributed to increased water flow and significant growth in power generation [5]. Investment Opportunities - The electricity demand is shifting from traditional industries to residential and emerging sectors, with a continuous optimization of the electricity supply structure [6]. - The investment logic in the electricity sector is transitioning towards growth driven by AI and energy transformation, moving away from traditional cyclical fluctuations [6]. - Short-term investment opportunities include coal power and energy storage, while mid-term focuses on cross-regional trading and long-term on low-cost hydropower and nuclear power [7].

马年开市以来，电力板块走势强劲，表现亮眼，主力资金积极布局，多只个股大幅上涨，成为市场焦 点。 分析人士认为，本轮行情由政策驱动，电力体制改革不断深化，全国统一电力市场体系顶层设计落地， 国家电网的中长期投资规划为行业打开了成长空间。与此同时，电力行业基本面迎来向上拐点，火电、 水电企业盈利普遍得到改善，行业发展基础持续夯实。 未来，随着电改向纵深推进、能源转型不断加速，电力板块长期成长空间与配置价值愈发凸显，细分领 域投资机会值得重点挖掘。 电力板块表现亮眼 2月27日，电力板块全天震荡走强。iFind数据显示，电力板块当日上涨3.25%，马年首周（2月24日—2 月27日），电力板块累计涨幅达8.47%。 当日，电力板块主力资金净流入超30亿元，板块内多只个股涨停。其中，珈伟新能（300317）20%涨 停，南网能源（003035）、涪陵电力（600452）、协鑫能科（002015）、赣能股份（000899）等8只个 股涨停。 对于电力板块近期走强的原因，多家机构一致认为，主要源于政策层面的驱动，电力体制改革持续深 化，推动电力全面市场化，并实现环境价值落地。 政策端，国家电网公司日前披露，"十五五"时期 ...

● 本报记者 谭丁豪 马年开市以来，电力板块走势强劲，表现亮眼，主力资金积极布局，多只个股大幅上涨，成为市场焦 点。 分析人士认为，本轮行情由政策驱动，电力体制改革不断深化，全国统一电力市场体系顶层设计落地， 国家电网的中长期投资规划为行业打开了成长空间。与此同时，电力行业基本面迎来向上拐点，火电、 水电企业盈利普遍得到改善，行业发展基础持续夯实。 未来，随着电改向纵深推进、能源转型不断加速，电力板块长期成长空间与配置价值愈发凸显，细分领 域投资机会值得重点挖掘。 电力板块表现亮眼 2月27日，电力板块全天震荡走强。iFind数据显示，电力板块当日上涨3.25%，马年首周（2月24日—2 月27日），电力板块累计涨幅达8.47%。 当日，电力板块主力资金净流入超30亿元，板块内多只个股涨停。其中，珈伟新能20%涨停，南网能 源、涪陵电力、协鑫能科、赣能股份等8只个股涨停。 对于电力板块近期走强的原因，多家机构一致认为，主要源于政策层面的驱动，电力体制改革持续深 化，推动电力全面市场化，并实现环境价值落地。 政策端，国家电网公司日前披露，"十五五"时期，国家电网公司固定资产投资预计达到4万亿元，将创 历史新高， ...

开源证券近日发布电力行业2026年度投资策略：2025年，A股红利风格板块整体表现不佳。2025年，电 力需求维持平稳增长，我国全社会用电10.37万亿千瓦时，同比增长5.0%。预计十五五期间我国将呈 现"宽电量、紧电力"的电力供需格局，综合电价有望企稳。 以下为研究报告摘要： 1.行业回顾：红利风格表现不佳，电力需求平稳增长 2025年，A股红利风格板块整体表现不佳。2025年，电力需求维持平稳增长，我国全社会用电10.37万亿 千瓦时，同比增长5.0%。预计十五五期间我国将呈现"宽电量、紧电力"的电力供需格局，综合电价有望 企稳。 2.电力：电价下探、补贴退坡，电力体制改革步入深水区 （1）火电：电价承压、煤价趋稳，容量电价重塑火电商业模式。2025年北方火电单位盈利整体同比向 好，东南沿海火电单位盈利承压。2026年江苏、浙江年度长协电价同比下降68.26、67.54元/兆瓦时。容 量电价基本能够覆盖煤电固定成本，折旧到期后有望贡献稳定盈利，红利属性有望强化。 （2）水电：经营稳健，低利率环境下具备长期配置价值。2025年，主要水电上市公司经营稳健。 2024H2起，水电股息率与国债收益率的息差走阔；2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of the "Implementation Opinions on Improving the National Unified Electricity Market System," which aims to enhance the electricity market structure in China, transitioning from foundational construction to a more mature market system by 2030 and 2035 [2][3]. Group 1: Key Goals and Framework - The implementation outlines two key goals: to establish a national unified electricity market system by 2030, with market-based transactions accounting for approximately 70% of total electricity consumption, and to fully develop this system by 2035, ensuring a steady increase in market transaction ratios [3]. - The article emphasizes that the construction of a unified electricity market is crucial for optimizing resource allocation, ensuring energy security, and supporting economic growth [5]. Group 2: Market Development and Achievements - By 2025, the market-based electricity transaction volume is projected to reach 6.6 trillion kilowatt-hours, a sevenfold increase from 2015, with market transactions rising from less than 15% to 64% of total electricity consumption [6]. - The cross-regional electricity trading volume is expected to grow from less than 0.1 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2015 to approximately 1.6 trillion kilowatt-hours by 2025, marking a growth of over 15 times [6]. - The market structure has evolved to include a multi-level collaborative framework, ensuring balance and security in electricity supply through provincial and inter-provincial trading [6]. Group 3: Pricing Mechanisms and Market Participation - A preliminary market-based pricing mechanism has been established, allowing for price fluctuations in coal and industrial electricity within reasonable limits, while ensuring sustainable development for renewable energy [7]. - By the end of 2025, all commercial users are expected to participate in the electricity market, with over 1.09 million registered market entities, a 22-fold increase since 2015 [7]. - The governance structure for the electricity market has begun to take shape, with government oversight, regulatory bodies, and independent trading institutions working collaboratively [7]. Group 4: Future Directions and Reforms - The "Implementation Opinions" address key systemic barriers in the current electricity market, focusing on optimizing resource allocation, enhancing market functions, and promoting equal participation among various stakeholders [10]. - Plans to improve cross-regional electricity trading include expanding transmission capacity and increasing the share of clean energy, aiming to shift from a primarily planned trading model to a more market-oriented approach [11]. - Differentiated market entry paths for various renewable energy projects are proposed, encouraging private sector participation and the development of new energy technologies [12].

2月12日，电网ETF（561380）收涨3.14% 来源：WIND 电网板块受政策利好刺激涨幅居前。消息面上，国务院办公厅近日印发《关于完善全国统一电力市场体 系的实施意见》，明确划定发展蓝图：到2030年，基本建成全国统一电力市场体系，市场化交易电量占 全社会用电量的70%左右；到2035年，全面建成该体系，市场功能进一步成熟完善，市场化交易电量占 比稳中有升。该政策作为电力体制改革进入深水区的关键纲领，将直接带动特高压、电网设备等核心基 础设施投资放量，为行业发展注入持久动力。 当前电网领域呈现内外需求共振格局。海外市场，全球数据中心建设升温，AI算力激增推高单机柜功 率密度，数据中心用电量攀升、电网负荷压力加大，电网改造升级需求集中释放。我国变压器等核心电 网设备凭借成熟技术、完善产业链及高性价比优势，出口竞争力凸显。国内市场，特高压及主网建设提 速，2025年多项重点工程竣工、2026年新一轮项目加速开工；叠加新能源高比例并网，柔性输电、智能 变电站等技术加速渗透，带动二次设备需求放量。 政策红利持续释放，国内基础设施建设需求稳步推进，海外出口市场持续发力，多重利好叠加下，电网 设备领域景气度有望持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The State Council issued the "Implementation Opinions on Improving the National Unified Electricity Market System," marking a significant step in China's electricity market reform, transitioning from "accelerating construction" to "improvement" of the market system [1][2]. Group 1: Goals and Objectives - The "Implementation Opinions" set two phased goals: to establish a basic national unified electricity market system by 2030, with market-based trading accounting for approximately 70% of total electricity consumption; and to fully establish the system by 2035, with a steadily increasing proportion of market-based trading [2]. Group 2: Market Structure and Achievements - The national unified electricity market structure has been largely established, transitioning from a planned to a market-oriented production organization over the past decade [4]. - By 2025, the market-based trading volume is expected to reach 6.6 trillion kilowatt-hours, a sevenfold increase from 2015, with the market share rising from less than 15% to 64% [5]. - Cross-provincial and cross-regional electricity trading is projected to grow from less than 0.1 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2015 to approximately 1.6 trillion kilowatt-hours by 2025, an increase of over 15 times [5]. Group 3: Market Mechanisms and Governance - A multi-level collaborative market structure has been formed, ensuring balance and supply security at the provincial level while enhancing inter-grid cooperation for broader resource circulation [5]. - A preliminary market price mechanism has been established, allowing for market-driven pricing of coal and industrial electricity within reasonable ranges [5]. - The governance framework for the electricity market has begun to take shape, with government departments responsible for overall design, regulatory bodies maintaining market order, and trading institutions providing platforms [6]. Group 4: Policy and Regulatory Framework - The "Implementation Opinions" address key systemic and mechanistic obstacles in the current electricity market, focusing on optimizing resource allocation, enhancing market functions, and promoting equal participation from various operators [10]. - The document proposes a shift from "individual pricing and trading" to "unified pricing and joint trading" across different market levels, aiming to improve transaction efficiency and flexibility [10]. Group 5: Participation and Inclusivity - The reform emphasizes increasing participation from private enterprises, particularly in new energy sectors such as storage and virtual power plants, while allowing small and medium-sized commercial users to directly engage in the electricity market [12]. - A diversified market governance system is proposed to ensure safe and regulated market operations, with independent oversight and collaborative management from various stakeholders [12].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.80%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.18% as of the midday close [1] - Key sectors that performed well included CPO, base metals, and power equipment, while sectors like catering, tourism, cultural media, and banking experienced fluctuations [1] Base Metals Sector - Base metal concept stocks saw a significant rise, with nickel and cobalt stocks experiencing a rebound, leading to multiple stocks such as Pengxin Resources and Dongyangguang hitting the daily limit [3] - The world's largest nickel mine, PT Weda Bay Nickel, was reported to receive a production quota of 12 million tons for this year, a 71% decrease from the expected 42 million tons in 2025, which exceeded market expectations [4] Electric Equipment Sector - Electric equipment concept stocks surged, with companies like Hancable and Zhongheng Electric also hitting the daily limit [6] - The State Council issued opinions on improving the national unified electricity market system, aiming for completion by 2030 and full establishment by 2035 [7] Company-Specific Developments - Zhizhu Technology's stock price surged by over 33%, reaching 400 HKD per share, following the announcement of a structural adjustment to its GLM Coding Plan pricing, with an overall price increase of over 30% [9][12] - The company cited strong market demand and increased user scale and usage as reasons for the price adjustment, while existing subscribers will not see a price change [11][12] Analyst Insights - ANZ Research noted that improved risk appetite among global investors has driven base metals higher in Asia, with concerns about rising copper inventories in the US boosting market sentiment [5] - Zhongyin Securities highlighted that ongoing reforms in the domestic electricity system and accelerated construction of ultra-high voltage and main networks are expected to sustain high demand for electric equipment [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the power industry is expected to undergo high-quality development due to accelerated marketization and ongoing reforms in the electricity system in China, particularly in the context of the "dual carbon" strategy [2] - The report highlights that the investment in the power grid is anticipated to increase, with significant growth in transformer exports to the U.S. and other countries in the first nine months of 2025 [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of gas turbines as a primary solution for addressing electricity shortages in the U.S., with Chinese companies expected to expand their presence in international markets [4] Group 2 - The report notes that the construction of ultra-high voltage (UHV) power lines is likely to accelerate due to the rising demand for green electricity, despite a slowdown in construction during the latter part of the 14th Five-Year Plan [3] - The investment in distribution networks is expected to become a key focus during the 15th Five-Year Plan, as the reliability of power supply is challenged by the rapid growth in peak electricity load [3] - The profitability of wind power equipment is projected to continue improving, with domestic companies accelerating their international expansion, supported by high bidding volumes and rising prices [5]