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美元兑港元汇率
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大华银行:预计短期内美元兑港元仍将徘徊于上限附近
智通财经网· 2025-06-11 06:13
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite recent fluctuations in exchange rates, if liquidity in Hong Kong remains ample, the USD/HKD exchange rate is expected to hover near the upper limit in the short term, with forecasts for Q3 2025 to Q2 2026 being 7.84, 7.82, 7.80, and 7.80 respectively [1] - Factors such as monetary policy considerations and the reallocation of assets away from the US are seen as bearish for the dollar, with the former expected to gradually take precedence over the latter, potentially slowing the pace of dollar depreciation [1] - The bank maintains a downward trend for the dollar index, with the latest forecasts being 98.4 by the end of 2025 and 96.5 by the end of Q2 2026 [1] Group 2 - As tariff risks diminish, market focus is expected to shift back to monetary policy, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will implement three rate cuts of 25 basis points each in September, October, and December [2] - The bank anticipates that after a 9-month pause in rate hikes, the Federal Reserve will restart its easing cycle, while other G10 central banks will gradually end their easing policies, which will help narrow the dollar interest rate spread and exert downward pressure on the dollar [2]
汇丰:美元兑港元可能很快触及7.85!
智通财经网· 2025-06-10 03:36
Core Viewpoint - Recent sudden easing of Hong Kong dollar liquidity has led to a sharp decline in Hong Kong dollar interest rates, resulting in active interest rate arbitrage activities and a significant rebound of the US dollar against the Hong Kong dollar [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Fluctuations and Market Dynamics - The US dollar to Hong Kong dollar exchange rate has experienced fluctuations within a range, which is considered normal under the linked exchange rate system [2]. - In early May, strong demand for the Hong Kong dollar due to stock market activities and concerns over "de-dollarization" led the currency pair to drop to 7.75 [2]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) bought 17 billion USD and sold 1,294 billion HKD, increasing the balance from 44.6 billion HKD to 174 billion HKD, the highest level since July 2022 [2]. - The sudden easing of Hong Kong dollar liquidity has caused the overnight Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) to approach zero, with the interest rate spread between short-term secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) and HIBOR widening to unprecedented levels [2][3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Currency Movements - The speed of the rebound in the US dollar against the Hong Kong dollar has exceeded expectations, driven by temporary demand for the Hong Kong dollar related to upcoming IPOs and dividend payments [3]. - There has been a notable slowdown in capital inflows through the Stock Connect program from mainland China, dropping to 5.8 billion USD in May compared to an average of 20 billion USD per month from January to April [3]. - Existing issues of weak credit demand in the Hong Kong economy have been exacerbated, with the loan-to-deposit ratio for the Hong Kong dollar reaching a decades-low of 72.3% in April [3]. Group 3: Future Projections and Considerations - The ability of the US dollar to Hong Kong dollar exchange rate to significantly drop below 7.85 will depend on the reduction of the balance, which previously fell to 54 billion HKD in 2019 and 45 billion HKD in 2023 [4][5]. - Factors such as the acceleration of stock fund inflows, demand related to the current dividend season and IPOs, and the potential for Hong Kong residents to engage in "de-dollarization" transactions will be critical [5][7]. - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with approximately 60 basis points anticipated starting in September, could influence the US dollar to Hong Kong dollar exchange rate [7]. Group 4: Sustainability of the Linked Exchange Rate System - The sustainability of the linked exchange rate system hinges on the HKMA's sufficient foreign exchange reserves, which are currently at nearly 200% of the monetary base, exceeding the theoretical requirement of 100% [13]. - Historical patterns indicate that when the Federal Reserve significantly cuts rates, the US dollar to Hong Kong dollar exchange rate has previously dropped to 7.75, suggesting that various factors influence currency fluctuations beyond just interest rate cycles [12][13].