Group 1: FOMC Meeting Insights - The focus of the September FOMC meeting was not on the rate cut magnitude but on the independence of the Federal Reserve amid new member Milan's rapid joining and legal issues faced by member Cook[3] - Only Milan supported a 50bp rate cut, while Waller and Bowman, who previously voted against, aligned with the majority this time[3] - The labor market dynamics are worse than in June, contradicting Waller's earlier stance that tariffs should be excluded when considering inflation, which would suggest a larger rate cut[3] Group 2: Economic Projections and Market Reactions - The median forecast for a rate cut in 2025 was raised from 50bp to 75bp, with only 9 out of 19 members supporting this, indicating a precarious consensus[7] - The FOMC's economic outlook was optimistic, raising 2025 GDP growth to 1.6% and 2026 GDP to 1.8%, while lowering the 2026 unemployment rate to 4.4%[10] - Powell's performance during the meeting was deemed satisfactory in maintaining the Fed's independence, despite political pressures from Trump[5] Group 3: Risks and Market Implications - Risks include increased political uncertainty from Trump, leading to greater market volatility and faster capital flight from the dollar[6] - Global economic impacts from tariffs may lead to unexpected synchronized easing, alleviating long-term interest rate pressures[6] - The Fed's independence has resulted in gold being the biggest loser in the market, with a 10% increase in gold prices since the Jackson Hole meeting reflecting prior market expectations of reduced Fed independence[10]

美国抵押贷款 利率上周再次上升，触及2月中旬以来高点，进一步抑制购房或再融资贷款需求。根据美 国抵押贷款银行家协会(MBA)周三公布的数据，截至4月18日当周，30年期抵押贷款的合约利率上涨9个 基点，至6.90%。此前一周曾上升20个基点，创下11月初以来最大连续两周涨幅。抵押贷款利率追随美 国国债收益率走势，由于美国国债作为避险 资产的吸引力减弱，其收益率近期走高。特朗普政府的关 税政策以及对解雇 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的威胁，正在引发市场对美国资产的重新评估，并削弱投 资者对美联储独立性的信心。 ...