Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate is showing an upward trend, influenced by strong US economic data and expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy adjustments [1][3][4] Group 1: USD Performance - The US dollar index (DXY) has slightly increased, hovering around 98.70, following a strong ISM services PMI report that rose from 52.6 in November to 54.4 in December, surpassing economists' expectations of 52.3 [3] - The robust performance of the services PMI, which is a significant component of the US economy, indicates stability supported by the high-tech sector [3] - Market expectations suggest at least two 25 basis point interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve within the year, influenced by the strong PMI data [3] Group 2: CHF Performance - The Swiss franc (CHF) has shown resilience against the US dollar, with expectations of a slight increase in the Swiss inflation rate from 0% in November to 0.1% in December, which may lead to a relatively stable policy direction from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) [3][4] - The CHF's stability is attributed to cautious trading behavior as the market awaits key economic data releases, including the US non-farm payrolls and Swiss CPI [4] - If the Swiss CPI data meets expectations, it is anticipated that the SNB will maintain a moderate policy stance for an extended period, which could influence short-term trading sentiment for the CHF [4]

黄金价格稳步上涨，美元走软为其提供了上涨空间，但避险需求的减弱抑制了金价。随着俄乌和平谈判似乎有 望结束冲突，以及此前占据2025年大部分时间头条的关税担忧逐渐淡出人们的视线，避险需求有限，黄金的上 涨空间也随之缩小。因此，目前黄金的上涨主要受利率驱动。需要关注的支撑位包括4280美元、4246美元和 4283美元。黄金价格若想重返历史高位，首先需要突破4345美元附近的阻力位。 以下是KCM Trade首席分析师兼福布斯顾问委员会成员Tim Waterer带来的本周汇评内容： 本周经济数据密集，积压的美国经济数据和一系列央行决议让交易员们有很多东西需要思考。 我们先来看周二（美国时间）公布的美国非农就业数据（NFP）。10月份的NFP为-10.5万人，表明就业市场持 续疲软，但由于政府停摆，该数据可能存在偏差。11月份的NFP为6.4万人，略高于预期，但仍远低于约10万人 的"中性"就业增长水平。此次公布的一系列就业数据中最引人注目的可能是失业率飙升至4.6%，这自然引起了 美联储鸽派成员的注意。总而言之，就业数据表明劳动力市场持续疲软，但可能不足以促使美联储在2026年1 月降息。 市场对美国就业数据有何 ...