交付报告显示，特斯拉Q3总交付量达497099辆，不仅较富国银行自身预测的412000辆高出20.7%，也较 市场共识预期的443079辆超出12.2%，同时实现7%的同比增长及29%的环比增长。 具体来看，为对冲美国电动汽车税收抵免政策到期影响，特斯拉在Q3推出多重激励措施：美国市场 Model Y/3库存车最高折扣2000美元、美国及加拿大市场Model3车型提供18个月免费超级充电服务，以 及其他超级充电套餐，此外，特斯拉还新增6500美元租赁补贴，进一步加码促销力度。 价格端压力同样明显，富国银行估算，特斯拉Q3平均订单价格环比小幅下降，其中Model Y/3定价环比 下跌1%。该行判断，Q3大概率将是特斯拉未来一段时间内交付量最强劲的季度，后续为维持交付规 模，公司需持续推出有吸引力的激励政策与折扣，以抵消7500美元税收抵免到期的影响。 基于对后续需求及利润压力的判断，富国银行下调了特斯拉2025年核心业绩预期：预计全年交付量约 148万辆，同比下降13%，显著低于市场共识的164万辆;同时将2025年每股收益预期下调至较市场共识 低29%的水平，核心原因在于对Q4交付疲软、利润率承压及监管信贷收 ...

Group 1: Tesla's Performance and Outlook - Goldman Sachs raised Tesla's 12-month target price from $285 to $315 based on better-than-expected delivery data for Q2 2025, while maintaining a "neutral" rating due to challenging short-term fundamentals in the automotive business [1] - Tesla's global vehicle deliveries reached 384,000 units in Q2 2025, a 14% increase quarter-over-quarter but a 13% decrease year-over-year, falling short of market consensus of 394,000 units [2] - The production volume for the quarter was approximately 410,000 units, reflecting a 13% quarter-over-quarter increase, while year-over-year figures remained stable [2] Group 2: Challenges and Future Projections - Goldman Sachs noted that the outlook for Tesla's vehicle deliveries is contentious, influenced by the timing of new model releases and their differentiation from existing models; the anticipated low-cost model has not yet been launched [3] - The firm adjusted its 2025 delivery forecast for Tesla from 1.575 million to 1.594 million units, representing an 11% year-over-year decline, while estimates for 2026 and 2027 remain unchanged at 1.865 million and 2.15 million units, respectively [3] - The expected non-GAAP gross margin for Q2 2025 is now projected at 12.7%, up from a previous estimate of 12.5%, primarily due to increased sales volume [3] Group 3: Robotaxi and FSD Developments - Despite positive early user feedback, there are reports of underperformance leading to scrutiny from the NHTSA; short-term growth in the Robotaxi business is expected to be slow, but long-term opportunities in the autonomous driving market remain significant [4] - Tesla's energy storage deployment is projected to reach 9.6 GWh in 2025, up from 9.4 GWh in 2024, with Q1 2025 expected to be 10.4 GWh; however, profit margins may be pressured by tariffs on lithium iron phosphate batteries sourced from China [4] Group 4: Optimus Robot Production Expectations - Tesla plans to manufacture thousands of Optimus robots by the end of the year, with a cumulative production target of 10,000 units by 2025; however, recent reports indicate a pause in production following the departure of the Optimus business head [5] Group 5: Rivian's Performance - Rivian delivered 10,661 vehicles in Q2 2025, a 23% increase quarter-over-quarter but a 23% decrease year-over-year, aligning closely with market consensus [7] - Production for the quarter was 5,979 vehicles, reflecting a 59% quarter-over-quarter decline and a 38% year-over-year decline, attributed to preparations for the upcoming 2026 model [7] - Goldman Sachs slightly adjusted Rivian's 2025 delivery forecast from 43,000 to 42,500 units, while maintaining estimates for 2026 and 2027 at 55,000 and 92,000 units, respectively [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Tesla deployed 9.6 gigawatt-hours of energy storage products in the second quarter [1]

Group 1 - Tesla deployed 9.6 gigawatt-hours of energy storage products in the second quarter [1]