2026.03. 03 本文字数：1182，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第 一财经 黄琳 酝酿许久，小鹏第二代VLA即将于本月下旬开启正式推送。据悉，小鹏第二代VLA采用端到端结构， 能够在"视觉（Version）-语言转译（Language）-动作（Action）"中去掉中间的语言转译环节，直 接实现"视觉输入"到"动作输出"，并在芯片算力提升等情况下，该系统模型运行速度提升12倍，响应 延迟降低80%。 小鹏汽车CEO何小鹏公开表示，小鹏第二代VLA是面向完全自动驾驶的第一个版本，它将以小鹏从 未有过的速度快速迭代。完全自动驾驶将在未来1～3年内完全到来，自动驾驶将真正成为人们的日 常出行习惯。 但是需要明确的是，目前的小鹏第二代VLA只是搭建了一套通用且高效的架构，并未达到100%的L4 级别自动驾驶水平，仍需要不断进行迭代更新。根据规划，小鹏所有的Ultra和Ultra SE车型都会搭 载第二代VLA，未来小鹏在全球市场的车型，将会提供基础智能辅助驾驶和顶级智能辅助驾驶两种选 择。 目前，搭载小鹏第二代VLA的Robotaxi已开启公开道路测试，今年内小鹏Robotaxi将开启试运营。 在全球部署上 ...

点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 本文全文共 4425 字，阅读全文约需 14 分钟 目录 国内新闻 1.我国首次主导修订智能汽车前照灯国际标准 2.中国汽车流通协会启动指南落实筹备工作 国外新闻 4.讴歌品牌创立40年首次在日本销售 商用车 国内新闻 1 3.小鹏汽车发布第二代VLA 4.雷军:小米机器人已在汽车工厂实习 5.腾势阿拉邦经销店正式开业 6.国轩高科2GWh全固态电池量产线设计基本完成 7.五菱缤果马来西亚首批用户交付 8.小马智行其第七代Robotaxi深圳月度盈利转正 1.美国2月新车销量预计达119万辆 2.南非2月新车销量同比增长11.4% 3.越南2026年起实施更严汽车尾气新规 1. 京津冀物流干线5座超充站上线 2. 新能源重卡生产商零一汽车完成股份制改造 3. 银川出台无人物流配送车辆道路测试与商业示范实施方案 4. 一汽解放J7创领版圆满完成15000公里长测 我国首次主导修订智能汽车前照灯国际标准 时间:2026.3.3 来源:网通社 近日，国际标准化组织（ISO）正式发布《道路车辆前照明光束定位测量程序》，该标准由我国牵头修 订，首次全面覆盖智能汽车前照灯光束定位的测量方法 ...

2026年2月18日，得克萨斯州。 当第一辆银灰色的Cybercab从特斯拉超级工厂的产线滑出来时，现场工程师们可能没意识到，他们刚刚完成了汽车工业史上最大胆的"裁员"——方向盘、 油门、刹车，全被开除了。 马斯克在X上发了张工厂照片，配文简单直接："首辆Cybercab量产下线。" 没有煽情，没有感叹号，仿佛在说"今天食堂供应汉堡"一样平常。但懂行的人都知道，这家伙又在搞事情了。 如今这辆车，连考驾照的机会都不给你。 而且马斯克算得门儿清：3万美元一辆，每英里运营成本1块4人民币，比传统出租车便宜得多。 这价格，滴滴看了沉默，Uber看了流泪。 特斯拉真得大胆 说实话，特斯拉这么大胆一点儿都不让人意外，从坚持做纯视觉时就能看出。 自动驾驶圈子有个老梗：特斯拉和同行们，就像甜咸豆腐脑之争，永远吵不完。 Waymo、百度这些"咸党"选手，车上顶着激光雷达、毫米波雷达、摄像头，传感器多得像长了满身眼睛，生怕漏看一点路况。特斯拉偏要做"甜党"：老子 只用摄像头，其他都是累赘。 马斯克的逻辑很清奇：激光雷达和摄像头同时看到个东西，数据不一样听谁的？打起来怎么办？不如就信摄像头，简单粗暴。 但"甜党"最近有点甜不起来。 ...

Core Insights - Tesla's Cybercab project manager, Viktor Nekita, has announced his departure shortly after the first production vehicle rolled off the line at the Texas Gigafactory on February 18 [1][3] - Nekita joined Tesla in 2017 as an intern on the Model 3 production line and has since progressed to lead the Cybercab project, highlighting a significant career development [3] - His exit continues a trend of management turnover at Tesla, with several key executives leaving the company over the past two years [3][4] Management Changes - Nekita's departure follows the exits of Cybertruck project manager Siddhant Awasthi and Model Y project manager Emmanuel Lamakiya in November 2025 [3] - Tesla has lost multiple core executives, including the North America and Europe sales and manufacturing VP, Omid Afshar, and the head of the Optimus robot project, Milan Kovac, among others [3][4] Cybercab Production Status - Currently, no original project leaders remain for Tesla's production models, including Model 3, Model Y, Cybertruck, and Cybercab [4] - Nekita played a crucial role in transitioning Cybercab from concept to production, but full-scale production still requires validation, with Elon Musk warning of slow initial production [4] Autonomous Driving Challenges - The Cybercab relies entirely on fully autonomous driving without a steering wheel or pedals, making it unusable if the autonomous system fails [5] - Tesla has adjusted its definition of "full self-driving" as of September 2025, no longer promising fully autonomous capabilities [5] - The Cybercab will launch with AI4 hardware, while the AI5 chip is not expected until 2027, and the current AI4 has not achieved fully autonomous driving in the existing fleet [5]

投资埃隆·马斯克所创立的科技公司——无论是特斯拉、SpaceX还是已经与SpaceX合并的xAI，与其说是押注财务基本面 表现跑赢市场，不如说是在为他本人对未来的增长愿景投下信任票。当前最典型的"马斯克信仰"案例正是SpaceX，投资 者们通过特斯拉以及Destiny Tech 100ETF蜂拥布局与SpaceX相关联的资产，并不只是今天的卫星宽带帝国与火箭发射业 务，而是在为"100万颗卫星、超大规模太空云服务器、太阳能驱动的太空轨道AI算力体系、甚至月球卫星工厂"，乃至卡 尔达舍夫II型文明这样的远期蓝图支付高额溢价。 SpaceX考虑在6月(马斯克生日附近)上市，融资额可能高达500亿美元，或成为史上规模最大的IPO。预计估值最高有望达 到1.5万亿美元，接近特斯拉的1.6万亿美元。而特斯拉、SpaceX以及xAI"三合一"铸就"马斯克超级商业帝国"，可能是马 斯克创立的这三家公司的最终宿命。 随着全球AI数据中心的最大瓶颈正在从"AI芯片"转向"电力系统与部署"，SpaceX叙事系统里"把数据中心送上太空轨道、 用太阳能供电"的构想，正在进入工程化试错期，资本市场迫切需要规模更大、更稳定的资本池与更统 ...

港股汽车ETF国泰（520720）跟踪的是港股通汽车指数（931239），该指数从港股通范围内选取涉及整 车制造、零部件及智能驾驶等汽车产业相关证券作为指数样本，以反映港股通汽车产业相关上市公司的 整体表现，其样本具有高研发投入和成长性特征，展现出较强的市场弹性和国际化特点。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 国海证券指出，2026年汽车行业"结构存机会"。在新能源购置税优惠确定性退坡、以旧换新幅度退坡 下，2026年汽车总量难有惊喜。但自主品牌高端化升级，智能化加速渗透，具身智能量产落地，汽车以 及产业链仍在大的技术变革周期中。完全自动驾驶汽车商业化进程加速，特斯拉无人驾驶出租车 Cybercab下线是自动驾驶战略的实质性突破，或推动共享出行模式向低成本与规模化方向演进，进一步 推动出行行业向无人化与高效化转型。同时，人形机器人产业从实验室走向大众视野，或将有助提升公 众对具身智能的认知接受度，推动技术向更多场景加速落地。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's recent financial report indicates a significant decline in performance, with a 2.8% decrease in annual revenue and an 8.6% drop in delivery volume compared to 2024, despite a fourth-quarter revenue of $24.9 billion that exceeded expectations [1][3] Financial Performance - Tesla's profit for the entire year of 2025 was only $3.794 billion, a decline of approximately 47% compared to 2024, which itself was already down 52.5% from 2023's profit of $14.999 billion [3][11] - The global delivery volume for Model S and Model X in 2025 was less than 51,000 units, accounting for only 3.1% of Tesla's total deliveries [9][11] Strategic Decisions - Elon Musk announced the planned discontinuation of the Model S and Model X in the second quarter of 2026 to repurpose the Fremont factory for the production of the Optimus humanoid robot [5][12] - The decision to stop production of these flagship models is seen as a necessary move to cut costs and focus on more promising future projects, despite the historical significance of these vehicles in establishing Tesla's brand [11][14] Future Business Direction - Tesla is shifting its focus towards the development of the Optimus robot, which is expected to represent about 80% of the company's future value according to Musk's Master Plan [12][22] - The transition to a subscription model for the Full-Self Driving (FSD) service aims to create a steady revenue stream and expand the user base, which is crucial for the future Robotaxi business [15][18] Market Implications - The shift towards the Robotaxi model and the FSD subscription service is intended to disrupt the existing transportation system, potentially leading to a significant increase in market size and profitability for Tesla [20][21] - The anticipated high profit margins from Robotaxi services could redefine Tesla's valuation from a traditional automaker to an AI and mobility service platform [20][22] Operational Challenges - The transition to focusing on humanoid robots may slow down the iteration speed of Tesla's automotive product lines, affecting promised updates and advancements in vehicle technology [28][30] - Employees may face job security concerns due to organizational restructuring and potential layoffs as resources are redirected towards the robot project [30][32]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is transitioning from being a pure electric vehicle manufacturer to focusing on artificial intelligence and robotics, marking the end of the Model S and Model X production lines as part of this shift [4][30]. Group 1: Model S and Model X Production - Elon Musk announced that the Model S and Model X will cease production in Q2 2026, ending the lifecycle of these flagship models that once led the electric vehicle revolution [4][10]. - Despite multiple updates over the years, the core design and key components of Model S and Model X have not evolved to meet current industry standards, leading to declining sales [9][10]. - In 2025, Tesla sold 50,850 units of "other models," which includes Model S and Model X, reflecting a 40.2% year-over-year decline [10]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Tesla's total revenue for 2025 was $94.827 billion, a 3% decrease year-over-year, with a net profit of approximately $3.794 billion, down 46% [15]. - The company faced challenges due to outdated vehicle designs and increasing competition from traditional automakers, resulting in an 8.5% decline in sales compared to 2024, totaling around 1.6 million units sold [16][18]. Group 3: Future Directions - Musk emphasized that Tesla's future lies in FSD (Full Self-Driving), Robotaxi, and the Optimus humanoid robot, rather than in traditional vehicle manufacturing [20][28]. - The FSD software saw a 38% increase in purchases in 2025, with nearly 1.1 million paid users, and Tesla plans to shift to a subscription model for FSD to expand its user base [24][25]. - Tesla's electric truck, Semi, is set to begin production in H1 2026, and the next-generation Roadster is expected to launch in April 2026 [26]. Group 4: Strategic Shifts - The discontinuation of Model S and Model X signifies Tesla's departure from its identity as a pure automotive manufacturer [30]. - Musk's comments reflect a strategic necessity for the company to adapt to changing market conditions and technological advancements, indicating a shift in focus towards AI and robotics [29][33].

Core Insights - Tesla's Q4 2025 earnings report shows a revenue of $24.901 billion, a 3% year-over-year decline, but with an EPS of $0.5 and a gross margin of 20%, both exceeding expectations [1] - The company’s energy storage business saw a significant growth, with installed capacity reaching 46.7 GWh in 2025, a 48.7% increase year-over-year, and Q4 alone contributing 14.2 GWh, marking a record high [1][4] - The Shanghai Gigafactory has become a strategic asset, delivering over 850,000 vehicles in 2025, accounting for nearly half of Tesla's global deliveries, and is now recognized as a core global export hub [1][2] Electric Vehicle Business: A "Lighthouse" Amidst Global Challenges - Tesla delivered approximately 1.636 million electric vehicles globally in 2025, facing significant challenges, particularly in the U.S. and European markets, where deliveries fell by 13.5% year-over-year in Q2 [2] - The U.S. market faced pressures from the termination of EV tax credits and increased competition, while in Europe, subsidy reductions and local competition led to a market share drop to 1.2% [2] - In contrast, the Shanghai Gigafactory performed robustly, delivering 851,000 vehicles, contributing over half of Tesla's global total, and achieving a record high of 191,700 vehicles in Q2 [2][3] Competitive Edge of Shanghai Factory - The Shanghai factory boasts over 95% localization in its supply chain and has established a highly efficient production network, producing a vehicle every 30 seconds, making it Tesla's most productive facility [3] - It has evolved into Tesla's global export center, with products shipped to Europe and Asia, achieving a record monthly export in October 2025 [3] Energy Storage Business: A Rising Growth Curve - The energy storage segment is highlighted by a 48.7% year-over-year growth, with 46.7 GWh installed in 2025, and Q4 alone contributing 14.2 GWh, marking a record for the quarter [4][6] - This growth is attributed to advancements in technology and product strategy, including the launch of the new Megapack 3 and Megablock, which significantly reduce costs and installation time [5] - A new energy storage factory in Houston is set to begin production by the end of 2026, targeting an annual capacity of 50 GWh, ensuring future growth [5] Future Outlook: Autonomous Driving and Robotics - Tesla is focusing on future innovations in autonomous driving and robotics, with the launch of Robotaxi services in Austin and plans for mass deployment by 2026 [7] - The development of the Optimus humanoid robot is also underway, with a third prototype expected in 2025 and mass production planned for 2026, showcasing Tesla's ambition in AI and robotics [7] Challenges and Strategic Path Forward - Tesla faces structural challenges due to over-reliance on the Model 3/Y, with production ramp-up of new models like Cybertruck falling short of expectations [8] - Increased competition in China from local brands is impacting market share, which has declined from a peak of 15% [8] - The company aims to stabilize its EV business through the Shanghai factory's efficiency, commercialize its energy storage solutions, and invest in autonomous driving and robotics for long-term growth [9]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla has transformed from a struggling electric vehicle startup in 2015 to a major player in the S&P 500 with a market capitalization of $1.39 trillion, despite initial skepticism about its valuation [1] Group 1: Investment Perspective - Tesla's investment outlook is complex, requiring an evaluation of its various segments: automotive, energy, and future growth areas like Full Self-Driving (FSD), Robotaxi, and Optimus [2] - Analysts initially expected to be bearish on Tesla due to limited contributions from FSD and Robotaxi, but found that short- and medium-term growth targets appear achievable [2] - Despite a valuation around $435, analysts believe there is significant potential for Tesla to meet or exceed market expectations in the upcoming quarters [2][4] Group 2: Financial Performance - Tesla's automotive sales for Q3 2025 were $20.359 billion, with total revenues from sales and services reaching $27.532 billion, reflecting an 8.3% year-over-year growth [7][8] - The energy business has become a significant growth driver, with sales of $3.281 billion in Q3 2025, representing a 43.5% year-over-year increase [8][10] - The traditional automotive business, including FSD, generated $24.7 billion in revenue, accounting for 87.8% of total revenue, despite facing cyclical headwinds [8][10] Group 3: Future Growth Segments - Future business segments like Robotaxi and Optimus are still in early monetization stages and have not yet contributed to Tesla's sales [9] - Analysts project a valuation of $175 billion for Robotaxi and $522.5 billion for Optimus, indicating a significant portion of Tesla's market value is based on unproven future products [11][12] Group 4: Short-term, Medium-term, and Long-term Outlook - Short-term expectations for Q4 2025 are set at $24.75 billion in revenue, with analysts anticipating a slight beat against conservative estimates [15][18] - Medium-term projections for 2026 estimate revenues of $107.4 billion, driven by growth in energy and FSD, while traditional automotive sales need to stabilize [22][23] - Long-term growth expectations hinge on the successful rollout of Robotaxi and Optimus, with significant revenue increases required to meet future targets [24][25] Group 5: Analyst Sentiment - Analysts currently hold a "hold" rating on Tesla, leaning bullish in the short term due to potentially low expectations for upcoming earnings [4][27] - The outlook becomes increasingly uncertain as the timeline extends, with the need for substantial growth from new technologies to justify current valuations [26][27]