2025 年 10 月底，开源证券给出的 2025 - 2027 年归母净利润预测分别为 1.88 亿元、3.52 亿元和 5.08 亿 元，那时的判断还相对谨慎。然而，仅仅两个多月后的 2026 年 1 月 8 日，最新报告横空出世，2025 年 预测维持不变，可 2026 - 2027 年预测却大幅上调至 7.12 亿元和 12.11 亿元。2026 年预测值近乎翻番， 2027 年预测值更是增长超 138%，这调整幅度，就像坐了火箭，令人咋舌。 二、非瘟疫苗：核心驱动的"王炸" 这一重大调整，关键在于非洲猪瘟亚单位疫苗研发的超预期进展。2025 年 7 月，生物股份成为国内首 家获批开展非瘟亚单位疫苗临床试验的企业，而且还是唯一承担单位，这独一份的"特权"，就像拿到了 通往财富宝藏的钥匙。截至 2025 年 12 月底，首轮攻毒试验已经启动，疫苗有望在 2026 年下半年至 2027 年上市。开源证券保守估计，非瘟疫苗在国内可能带来约 84 亿元的增量市场规模，生物股份凭借 先发优势，无疑将成为这场财富盛宴的最大受益者之一。 在资本市场，时间就是试金石，短短不到三个月，开源证券对生物股份（600201. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price based on the last closing price of 10.62 [1] Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1.042 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 161 million yuan, a decrease of 4.85% year-on-year. In Q3 2025 alone, revenue was 423 million yuan, up 17.76% year-on-year, and net profit was 101 million yuan, an increase of 116.40% year-on-year [4][5] - The core products continue to see significant growth, particularly in the swine vaccine segment, with sales of foot-and-mouth disease vaccines increasing by 50% year-on-year, and diarrhea vaccines seeing a 120% increase in revenue. The company is also making steady progress in developing new vaccines, including a novel mRNA vaccine for feline infectious peritonitis [5][7] Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 1.569 billion yuan for 2025, 1.851 billion yuan for 2026, and 2.073 billion yuan for 2027, with net profits projected at 283 million yuan, 320 million yuan, and 335 million yuan respectively. The corresponding EPS for these years is expected to be 0.25 yuan, 0.29 yuan, and 0.30 yuan, with PE ratios of 42.57, 37.67, and 35.91 respectively [5][7][9] - The gross margin is projected to be 54.00% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 18.03% [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing a recovery in performance, with a focus on the orderly advancement of non-epidemic vaccine clinical trials. The revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 reached 1.042 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 161 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.85%. In Q3 alone, revenue was 423 million yuan, up 17.76% year-on-year, and net profit increased significantly by 116.40% year-on-year [2][3] - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 188 million yuan, 352 million yuan, and 508 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.17 yuan, 0.32 yuan, and 0.46 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 65.4, 35.0, and 24.3 times for the respective years [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.042 billion yuan, a 7.38% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 161 million yuan, down 4.85% year-on-year. Q3 revenue was 423 million yuan, up 17.76% year-on-year, with net profit soaring by 116.40% year-on-year [2] - The company forecasts net profits of 188 million yuan in 2025, 352 million yuan in 2026, and 508 million yuan in 2027, with EPS projected at 0.17 yuan, 0.32 yuan, and 0.46 yuan respectively [2][3] Market Position and Growth - The company is expanding its market share in the competitive pig vaccine sector, with Q1-Q3 2025 sales of pig foot-and-mouth disease vaccines increasing by 50% year-on-year. The revenue from non-foot-and-mouth vaccines also saw significant growth, with diarrhea vaccine revenue up 120% year-on-year [3] - Direct sales channels for poultry vaccines showed strong performance, with a 40% year-on-year increase in direct sales revenue. The company is also expanding its international business, with revenue growth exceeding 16 million yuan in Q1-Q3 2025 [3] Research and Development - The company emphasizes stable operations and innovation in R&D, with R&D expenses of 96 million yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, a 9.08% increase year-on-year. The non-epidemic vaccine development is progressing, with the first clinical trial expected to begin by the end of December 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates strong operational resilience and growth driven by innovation. Despite a competitive industry landscape, the company reported a revenue of 942 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 11.48% year-on-year, but showed a recovery in Q1 2025 with a revenue of 245 million yuan, an increase of 19.65% year-on-year. The net profit for 2024 was 382 million yuan, down 3.43%, while Q1 2025 net profit rose by 24.08% to 108 million yuan. The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards, with expected net profits of 467 million, 578 million, and 694 million yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 1.00, 1.24, and 1.49 yuan [3][4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company's core products saw significant revenue contributions: pseudorabies vaccine accounted for 25%, diarrhea vaccine 30%, and circovirus vaccine approximately 25%. Direct sales contributed over 60% of revenue, while distribution accounted for over 30%. The gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 were 65.88% and 43.96%, respectively, with a year-on-year change of -0.76% and +1.47 percentage points. The company has effectively reduced costs, leading to improved net margins [4][5]. - The company maintained a high level of R&D investment, totaling 86 million yuan in 2024, which is 9.14% of revenue, an increase of 0.82 percentage points year-on-year. New vaccine registrations for pigs and poultry have been achieved, and the company is expanding its product line for ruminant vaccines [5][6]. Financial Forecasts - The financial forecasts indicate a recovery trajectory with projected revenues of 1.131 billion yuan in 2025, 1.358 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.567 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 20.1%, 20.1%, and 15.4% respectively. The net profit is expected to grow at rates of 22.0%, 23.9%, and 20.0% for the same years [6][8]. - Key financial ratios include a gross margin of 68.0% in 2025, improving to 71.4% by 2027, and a net margin projected to reach 44.3% by 2027 [6][8]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected at 16.2 for 2025, 13.1 for 2026, and 10.9 for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend as earnings grow [6][8]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratios are expected to decline from 1.7 in 2025 to 1.4 in 2027, suggesting an attractive investment opportunity as the company continues to enhance its profitability [6][8].