资料来源：中原证券研究所，聚源 -19% 2024.06 2024.10 2025.02 2025.06 相关报告 《农林牧渔行业月报：指数表现强势，宠物出 口数据维持快速增长》 2025-05-20 《农林牧渔行业月报：鸡价止跌反弹，《加快 建设农业强国规划》发布》 2025-04-11 《农林牧渔行业月报：畜禽价格偏弱运行，宠 物食品出口数据迎来"开门红"》 2025-03-25 联系人：李智 投资要点： 风险提示：原料价格、畜禽价格下跌，动物疫病，食品安全问题，生 物育种商业化政策不及预期等。 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 分析师：张蔓梓 登记编码：S0730522110001 zhangmz@ccnew.com 13681931564 周期掘金，向新而行 ——农林牧渔行业 2025 年度中期策略 强于大市(维持) 发布日期：2025 年 06 月 18 日 替代的加深，相关上市公司市场份额仍有较大增长空间。 第1页 / 共31页 农林牧渔 证券研究报告-行业半年度策 略 盈利预测和投资评级 公司简称 24EPS 25EPS 25PE 评级 牧原 ...

2025 年 05 月 12 日 行业周报 看好/维持 农林牧渔 农林牧渔 农业周报 20250503-20250510：粮价继续上涨，畜禽等待拐点 ◼ 走势比较 ◼ 子行业评级 | 种植业 | 看好 | | --- | --- | | 畜牧业 | 看好 | | 林业 | 中性 | | 渔业 | 中性 | | 农 产 品 加 工 | 看好 | | Ⅱ | | ◼ 推荐公司及评级 二、核心观点 行业评级及策略：粮价近期持续上涨，种植产业链景气有望触底反 转。畜禽价格低迷，产能有望高位回落。关税反制事件凸显国内农 产品供应重要性，产业发展政策环境有望持续优化，继续看好板块 投资机会。 | 中宠股份 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 牧原股份 | 买入 | | 苏垦农发 | 买入 | 相关研究报告 <<农业周报 20250427-20250502：子 行业 1 季报分化明显，养殖相关板块 业绩增长良好>>--2025-05-07 <<年报&一季报点评：粮价低迷致业 绩承压，自营农地规模扩大>>-- 2025-04-30 <<年报&一季报点评：自主品牌高速 增长，OEM 产能布局优势突出>>-- 2025 ...

Investment Rating - The overall industry rating is positive, with expectations for higher returns compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [52]. Core Views - The agricultural product prices have shown a divergence recently, with grain prices continuing to rise while livestock prices have stabilized after an initial increase. The importance of domestic food security has been highlighted by tariff countermeasures, and the policy environment for industry development is expected to continue improving, indicating ongoing investment opportunities in the sector [5][18]. - The livestock industry chain is experiencing stagnation in production capacity growth, with the valuation of the sector at a low point, suggesting long-term investment opportunities. The average price of live pigs is currently 14.95 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous week [5][19]. - The poultry sector is witnessing fluctuations in chicken prices, with the average price for white feather broilers at 3.73 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan from last week. The industry is advised to monitor the impacts of avian influenza and tariff countermeasures [21][20]. Summary by Sections Livestock Industry Chain - **Pork**: The production capacity growth has stagnated, and the sector's valuation is at a historical low, indicating potential long-term investment value. The average price of live pigs is 14.95 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan from last week [5][19]. - **Poultry**: The average price for white feather broilers is 3.73 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan from last week. The industry is advised to monitor the impacts of avian influenza and tariff countermeasures [21][20]. - **Eggs**: The average price for yellow chickens has shown a slight increase, with prices at 10.69 yuan/kg for Lihua yellow chickens, up 0.32 yuan from last month [21]. Planting Industry Chain - **Seed Industry**: The recent announcement of 99 genetically modified corn and soybean varieties pending approval indicates a significant expansion in domestic GM crop varieties, which is expected to enhance agricultural production efficiency [22]. - **Grain Prices**: Recent increases in grain prices, with corn at 2291 yuan/ton and wheat at 2434 yuan/ton, suggest potential investment opportunities in the context of reduced imports and tariff measures against U.S. agricultural products [22][11]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (Buy) - Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. (Buy) - Suqian Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. (Buy) [3].

2025 年 02 月 28 日 行业周报 看好/维持 农林牧渔 农林牧渔 周报（第 9 期）：养殖产能去化，估值底部，长期投资机会显现 ◼ 走势比较 (20%) (10%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 24/2/28 24/5/11 24/7/23 24/10/4 24/12/16 25/2/27 ◼ 子行业评级 电话：010-88321761 E-MAIL：chengxd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190511050002 报告摘要 | 种植业 | 无评级 | | --- | --- | | 畜牧业 | 无评级 | | 林业 | 无评级 | | 渔业 | 无评级 | | 农 产 品 加 工 | 无评级 | | Ⅱ | | ◼ 推荐公司及评级 | 登海种业 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 牧原股份 | 买入 | | 苏垦农发 | 买入 | 相关研究报告 <<美国奶牛感染禽流感事件梳理及 对食品安全的影响>>--2025-02-17 <<公司点评：成本持续领先，业绩高 速增长>>--2025-01-17 <<公司点评：生猪出栏快速增长，成 本持续下降>>--2025-01-14 ...