Report Title - "偏强运行，等待新季产量落地 —— 国信期货苹果周报" [2] Report Date - August 17, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The cold storage余量 is lower than the same period in previous years, with goods concentrated in Shandong. Cold storage merchants have a high willingness to ship. The destocking rate is high, but there are differences in shipment among cold storages. Early - maturing apples have problems such as slow coloring and small fruit size in some areas. The number of new - season apple bagging is slightly lower than the previous season, and the purchase price of early - maturing apples in the northwest is higher than last year, which may support the opening price of late - maturing Red Fuji. It is recommended to consider buying on dips in the short term and pay attention to the new - season apple production performance [30] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the main contract of apple futures, AP2510, continued to rise after a slight correction [7] 2. Supply - side Situation - As of August 14, 2025, the total remaining cold - storage apples in the country were 461,300 tons, at the lowest level in the past five years. The remaining cold - storage volume in Shandong was 288,200 tons, and that in Shaanxi was 119,200 tons [10] 3. Demand - side Situation - As of August 14, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 3.50%, with a weekly - on - weekly decrease of 0.41 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.8 percentage points. The destocking rate was 94.50%. There were differences in shipment among cold storages, and data errors slightly increased [14] - In June 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 37,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55%. The second - quarter export volume is expected to decline [16] - As of August 15, the mainstream price of apples in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. Cold - storage merchants had low - price offers, and customer purchasing enthusiasm was good [26]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of Apple Futures 2510 rose first and then fell, with a weekly decline of 3.09%. The initial estimate of the national apple production in the new season is 3736.64 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.35%. As of July 23, 2025, the cold storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was at a low level in the same period of the past five years, and the purchase price of early-maturing varieties increased slightly year-on-year, which supported the price to fluctuate strongly. However, the large number of summer cooling fruits on the market impacted the demand for apples, and the possible increase in the output of new-season apples might restrict the price increase. The upper limit to watch is 8140 yuan/ton. It is recommended to hold the long orders of Apple 2510 contract cautiously and take profits at high positions [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of Apple Futures 2510 rose first and then fell this week, with a weekly decline of 3.09% [5][10]. - **Market Outlook**: The estimated national apple production in the new season is 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of July 23, 2025, the national cold storage inventory was 70.45 million tons, a decrease of 10.15 million tons from last week. The inventory in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu decreased, but the destocking speed was different. The current inventory is at a low level in the same period of the past five years, and the purchase price of early - maturing varieties increased slightly year - on - year, supporting the price. However, the large number of summer fruits on the market and the possible increase in new - season output may restrict the price increase [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to hold the long orders of Apple 2510 contract cautiously and take profits at high positions [5]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to the destocking rate, consumption, and new - crop output [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: As of this week, the net short position of the top 20 in Apple Futures was 288 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [16]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 1, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmers' goods of bagged Red Fuji in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 4 yuan/jin, and the price of bagged Fuji apples above 75 in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.4 yuan/jin [19]. 3.3 Industry Situation and Options - **Supply Side**: As of July 30, 2025, the cold storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 61.61 million tons, a decrease of 8.84 million tons from last week. The destocking speed slowed down slightly. The destocking speed in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu was still slow, and the inventory was low [24]. - **Demand Side**: - As of July 31, the average daily arrival of trucks in the main apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0.6 yuan/jin [28]. - As of July 25, 2025, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.73 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 1.62%, and the wholesale price of apples was 9.72 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31% [33]. - As of July 25, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of five kinds of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, tangerines, pears, and watermelons) was 7.13 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% [37]. - In June 2023, the export volume of fresh apples in China was 4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.6% [40]. - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of apples this week was presented in a chart, but no specific data was given [41]. 3.4 Futures - Stock Correlation - A chart of the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit and Vegetable was presented, but no specific analysis was given [43].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - As of July 23, 2025, the national cold storage apple inventory was about 648,100 tons, lower than the same period last year and at the lowest level in the same period in history. The new - season early - maturing apple supply is tight, and the price is 0.2 - 0.4 yuan per jin higher than last year [1]. - Currently in the traditional apple consumption off - season, the demand is average. The export volume in June 2025 decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The new - season apple bagging is completed, with a slightly lower bagging volume than last year. The production in Shaanxi increased slightly, while that in Gansu and Shandong decreased [2]. - In the future, the futures market logic will shift from the old - season apple demand to the new - season apple production and acquisition. The apple futures are likely to remain strong, but the weak downstream demand in the short - term may limit the upside space. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In July 2025, the apple futures market fluctuated upward, showing a strong trend. The low inventory and high early - maturing apple prices supported the market [7]. 2. Apple Fundamental Analysis - **Cold storage inventory**: As of July 23, 2025, the national cold storage apple inventory was about 648,100 tons, lower than last year. Shandong had about 395,600 tons, Shaanxi about 173,400 tons, and non - main producing areas about 79,100 tons. Some storage merchants were eager to sell to lock in profits [1]. - **Consumption off - season and inventory removal**: As of July 24, 2025, the national cold storage inventory ratio was about 4.91%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.65 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.12 percentage points. The inventory removal rate was 92.28%. Shandong's cold storage shipping speed slowed down, while Shaanxi's was relatively stable. The overall demand in the first half of the year may be lower than last year, and there may be a possibility of price cuts to remove inventory [2][18]. - **Apple imports from January to June**: In June 2025, the fresh apple import volume was 18,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.32% and a year - on - year increase of 6.37%. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 69,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 36.63%. It is expected that the import volume will remain at a relatively high level [20][21]. - **Apple exports in the second quarter**: In June 2025, the fresh apple export volume was about 37,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55%. The export volume in the second quarter is expected to decline, and it is likely to remain at a low level [24]. - **Impact of seasonal fruits on downstream demand**: In July 2025, fruit prices continued to decline. Seasonal fruits such as bananas, watermelons, etc., affected the apple market. It is expected that the demand will gradually recover after the new - season apples are launched [29]. - **Stable origin prices**: As of July 24, 2025, the mainstream weighted average price of bagged Fuji 80 and above first - and second - grade goods in Shandong was 3.96 yuan per jin, slightly lower than last week but higher than the same period last year. The storage profit in Qixia was 0.35 yuan per jin, and the profit margin may be compressed in the future [33]. - **Seasonal analysis of apple consumption**: Based on five - year historical prices, the months with a high probability of price increases are September, November, and December, while the months with a high probability of price decreases are April, August, and October [37][38]. - **Slightly reduced bagging volume of new - season apples**: In 2025, the new - season apple bagging volume was slightly lower than last year. Shaanxi increased production slightly, while Shandong and Gansu decreased. The overall bagging volume decreased by 2.03% compared to the previous season. The acquisition price of new - season late - maturing Red Fuji may be higher than last year [41]. 3. Future Outlook - The supply side includes the old - season apple inventory and early - maturing apples. The demand is in the off - season. The futures market logic will shift, and the apple futures are likely to remain strong, but the short - term upside space may be limited. It is recommended to buy on dips [42][44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 1.55% on a weekly basis. According to preliminary estimates based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple production in the new season is expected to be 37.3664 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.35%. As of July 23, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 704,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 101,500 tons. The current inventory is at a five - year low. The purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased slightly year - on - year, supporting the price to fluctuate strongly. However, the large - scale listing of summer fruits has impacted apple demand, and the potential increase in new - season apple production may restrict price growth. The upper resistance level is at the previous high of 8,140 yuan/ton. It is recommended to hold long positions in the Apple 2510 contract cautiously and take profits at high levels [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 1.55% this week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The estimated national apple production in the new season is 37.3664 million tons, an increase of 859,300 tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of July 23, 2025, the cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas was 704,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 101,500 tons. The inventory is at a five - year low. The purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased slightly year - on - year, but the large - scale listing of summer fruits impacts demand, and potential production growth may restrict price increases. The upper resistance is at 8,140 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the Apple 2510 contract cautiously and take profits at high levels [6]. - **Future Trading Alerts**: Monitor de - stocking rate, consumption, and new - crop production [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - The price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 1.55% this week. As of the end of the week, the net long position of the top 20 in apple futures was 6,702 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0 [10][16]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - As of July 25, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade farmer - sourced bagged Red Fuji apples in Qixia, Shandong was 4 yuan/jin; the price of bagged 75 and above Fuji apples in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.4 yuan/jin [19]. 3.3. Industry Situation and Options 3.3.1. Supply Side - As of July 23, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 704,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 101,500 tons. The de - stocking speed was similar to last week and basically the same as last year. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 11.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.03%; in Shaanxi, it was 3.65%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.98%; in Gansu, it was 2.77%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.92%, and the sales in Gansu were sporadic [26]. 3.3.2. Demand Side - **Arrival Volume at Wholesale Markets**: As of July 25, the average daily morning arrival of trucks at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0.7 yuan/jin [30]. - **Wholesale Price**: As of July 18, 2025, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.89 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 2.38%; the average wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.75 yuan/kg, with no week - on - week change [34]. - **Substitutes**: As of July 18, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of five fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, tangerines, pears, and watermelons) was 7.32 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14% [38]. - **Export Volume**: In June 2023, China's fresh apple exports totaled 40,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.6% [41]. 3.3.3. Options Market - No detailed content provided other than the topic of the average implied volatility of at - the - money apple options this week [42]. 3.4. Relationship between Futures and Stocks - The report presents the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit, but no specific analysis is provided [44].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Guoxin Futures Apple Weekly Report: Stronger Oscillation, Awaiting New Season Guidance" and is dated June 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - As of June 19, 2025, the total remaining cold storage apple volume in the country is 1.0883 million tons, at the lowest level in the past five years. The cold storage inventory ratio is about 8.24%, with a weekly环比 decrease of 0.69 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 4.51 percentage points. The destocking rate is 87.05%. With less inventory in cold storage and declining downstream demand, the supply and demand are in a stalemate. The new season's apples are in the early stage of bagging, and the fruit - hanging issues in the production areas need to be verified by the initial bagging results. Short - term operations are recommended to be treated with a bullish oscillation mindset [35] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the main contract of apple futures, AP2510, showed a stronger oscillation [7] 2. Supply - side Situation - As of June 19, 2025, the total remaining cold storage apple volume in the country is 1.0883 million tons, at the lowest level in the past five years. The cold storage remaining volume in Shandong production area is 657,600 tons, and that in Shaanxi production area is 291,700 tons [12][35] 3. Demand - side Situation - As of June 19, 2025, the national cold storage inventory ratio is about 8.24%, with a weekly环比 decrease of 0.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.51 percentage points. The destocking rate is 87.05%. Apples are in the off - season, and the listing of seasonal fruits impacts the apple market, reducing market demand and the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants [17] - In May 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 50,000 tons, a 28.57% decrease from the previous month and a 16.67% decrease from the same period last year. The second - quarter export volume of fresh apples in 2025 is expected to decline [19] - As of June 20, in Shandong Yantai Qixia, the price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's slice - red apples is 3.5 - 4.0 yuan/jin, striped apples are 3.5 - 4.5 yuan/jin, merchant's slice - red apples are 4.0 - 4.5 yuan/jin, striped apples are 4.0 - 5.0 yuan/jin. The price of general goods is 2.8 - 3.0 yuan/jin, and the third - grade merchant's goods are 2.5 - 3.0 yuan/jin. The mainstream price of 70 apples is 2.5 - 2.7 yuan/jin. Sellers sell according to the market, there are few buyers, and the trading volume is low [31]