热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：中粮期货研究中心 引言 聚乙烯（PE）作为全球产量最大、应用最广泛的合成树脂品种，是石油化工产业的核心下游产品，其 供给格局直接反映炼化行业发展水平，同时深度影响包装、建材、汽车、医疗等下游千行百业。近年 来，在炼化一体化战略推进、民营炼化崛起及外资入局的多重驱动下，中国聚乙烯产能迎来爆发式增 长，供给端呈现"总量过剩、结构失衡、区域集聚"的鲜明特征。2025年市场深陷"高供应、弱需求、高 库存"的恶性循环，价格持续探底，2026年产能扩张惯性仍在延续，行业正面临前所未有的供需重构压 力。本文基于当前行业运行数据，系统解析聚乙烯供给现状、核心影响因素，结合期货市场联动效应， 预判未来发展趋势，为行业参与者提供参考。 1 国内聚乙烯供给现状 1． 产能持续扩张，自给率逐步提升 大炼化时代背景下，中国聚乙烯行业经历了连续多年的大规模产能扩张，并伴随着一场由"油"及"化"的 深刻变革，炼化一体化项目的集中落地更是推动了聚乙烯产能规模阶梯式攀升。随着恒力石化、浙江石 化、宝来利安德巴赛尔等大型民营及合资项目的相继投产，以及国家能源集团、中煤集团、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is transitioning from a traditional, low-quality production model to a high-quality, innovative, and green development approach, driven by policy guidance and market demand [2][15]. Group 1: Policy Guidance - The industry is moving away from "involution" and towards high-quality development, as indicated by national policies during the 14th Five-Year Plan, which emphasize supply-side structural reforms and balance between supply and demand [3][15]. - Capital expenditure in the basic chemical sector decreased by 9.07% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with 24 out of 33 sub-industries experiencing a decline [3][15]. - The number of ongoing projects in the basic chemical sector fell by 14.18% year-on-year, indicating a shift in the industry towards improved supply-demand dynamics [3][15]. Group 2: Green Transformation - The industry is redefining its image from "high pollution" to a green and sustainable sector, exemplified by the first domestic carbon footprint accounting for bio-based benzene, which has gained international recognition [7][18]. - A rigorous approach to green development has led to the establishment of a standardized carbon footprint accounting system, enhancing the credibility of green certifications for bio-based chemical products [7][18]. Group 3: Innovation Drive - The petrochemical sector is becoming a key player in technological innovation, focusing on high-end materials and fine chemicals, which are expected to lead global growth despite some slowdown in traditional product segments [8][19]. - The industry is addressing demand gaps in key supply chains, supporting enterprises in core technology breakthroughs, and fostering the development of innovative products [11][20]. - Notable advancements include breaking the import monopoly of core materials for photovoltaic adhesive films and accelerating the domestic production of materials needed for 5G communications [11][20]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The petrochemical industry is evolving into a provider of high-end new materials, a practitioner of green low-carbon initiatives, and a pioneer in technological innovation, moving away from traditional expansion models towards quality enhancement [12][20]. - Investors can capitalize on the industry's upward trend through the Petrochemical ETF (159731) and related funds, which track the petrochemical industry index, highlighting key sectors such as refining and trade, chemical products, and agricultural chemicals [21].

Overview - The article discusses the current state and future prospects of Metallocene Polyethylene (mPE), highlighting its production, market demand, and applications in various industries [2][4][19]. Production and Market Supply - In 2023, global mPE production capacity is approximately 28 million tons per year, with the top four producers accounting for about 50% of this capacity [7][10]. - ExxonMobil leads with a 21% share, followed by Dow Chemical at 16%, and Chinese companies PetroChina and Sinopec have capacities of 8% and 7%, respectively [8][10]. - North America accounts for about 31% of global capacity, while Asia, including China, is experiencing rapid growth in demand for mPE [9][11]. Demand Analysis - The global demand for mPE in 2023 is estimated at around 25 million tons, with major consumption markets in the Americas, Europe, and Asia [11]. - In China, the apparent consumption of mPE is 2.59 million tons, with a production of 360,000 tons and an import volume of 2.23 million tons, indicating a reliance on imports due to performance gaps between domestic and foreign products [13][19]. Application Areas - mPE is primarily used in films, pipes, bottle caps, and various other applications, with films accounting for approximately 88.9% of China's mPE consumption in 2023 [17][19]. - The film segment includes food packaging films, greenhouse films, and heavy-duty packaging films, while pipes are used for hot and cold water delivery systems [25][30]. Technological Advancements - The production processes for mPE include solution, slurry, and gas-phase methods, with gas-phase processes dominating global production [21][22]. - Advances in metallocene catalysts and production technology are expanding mPE's application fields beyond films to include pipes, coatings, and waterproof membranes [23][24]. Future Outlook - China's mPE production capacity is expected to increase significantly, with planned projects adding over 6 million tons per year, leading to intensified competition in the market [15][19]. - The article emphasizes the need for innovation in catalyst technology and production processes to enhance the competitiveness of domestic mPE products [38][41].

Overview - The article discusses the current state and future prospects of Metallocene Polyethylene (mPE), highlighting its production, market demand, and applications in various industries [2][4][19]. Production and Market Supply - In 2023, global mPE production capacity is approximately 28 million tons per year, with the top four producers accounting for about 50% of this capacity [7][10]. - ExxonMobil leads with a 21% share, followed by Dow Chemical at 16% [7][10]. - China's mPE production capacity has increased significantly, with China National Petroleum and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation ranking third and fourth globally, holding 8% and 7% of the market, respectively [8][10]. - The demand for mPE in 2023 is estimated at 25 million tons, with Asia, particularly China, showing rapid growth in consumption [11][13]. Domestic Supply and Demand - China's apparent consumption of mPE in 2023 is 2.59 million tons, with a production of 360,000 tons and an import volume of 2.23 million tons, resulting in a self-sufficiency rate of only 13.8% [13]. - The domestic mPE production landscape is evolving, with several companies, including Qilu Petrochemical and Daqing Petrochemical, increasing their production capabilities [13][15]. - By the end of 2023, China's planned mPE production capacity is expected to reach approximately 5.568 million tons per year [14]. Applications and Market Trends - mPE is primarily used in films, pipes, bottle caps, and other applications, with films accounting for about 88.9% of consumption in China [17][19]. - The rapid development of new products in the packaging industry is expected to drive demand for mPE, particularly in shrink films and composite packaging films [19]. - The article emphasizes the importance of mPE's superior properties, which position it well for growth in various sectors, including construction and agriculture [19][36]. Technological Processes - The production processes for mPE include solution, slurry, and gas-phase methods, with gas-phase processes accounting for 61% of global production capacity [21][22]. - Major production technologies include Dow's Dowlex, NOVA's Sclairtech, and Univation's Unipol processes [21][22]. Development Recommendations - The article suggests that China should accelerate the development of domestic metallocene catalysts and key raw materials to enhance competitiveness in the mPE market [38][40]. - It highlights the need for innovation in material microstructure and the development of specialized products to meet emerging market demands [41].