东莞控股于2025 年8 月25 日发布2025 年半年度报告： 66%/+10.86%。2025 年H1，莞深高速车流量与去年同期基本持平，混合车流量达到6008.58 万辆，同 比-0.26%。公司正在对莞深高速实施改扩建工程，2025 年H1 投入金额8.63 亿元，累计投入金额35.36 亿元，占投资总额的20.11%，预计于2028 年12 月建成通车；鉴于项目正在开展改扩建，2027 年6 月30 日到期后不影响继续收费，公司将申请延长收费期限，具体期限以政府相关部门批复为准。 坏账准备冲回等增厚利润，投资布局持续优化。1）2025 年H1，公司信用减值损失为0.63 亿元，上年同 期为-1.74 亿元，变动幅度较大主要因为上年同期增加计提应收商业保理款坏账准备金及对应收东莞信 托股权处置款计提坏账准备，本期收回东莞信托股权处置款而冲回原计提的坏账准备。2）2025 年H1， 公司财务费用为-0.11 亿元，上年同期为0.36 亿元，主要因本期利息支出同比减少同时利息收入同比增 加。3）2025 年H1，为优化投资布局、提升资产质量，公司完成受让东莞证券7.1%的股权，目前持有 东莞证券27.1% ...

Investment Highlights - Dongguan Holdings focuses on its core highway business, with expected substantial dividends from 2025 to 2027. The company has seen its total revenue grow from 1.097 billion to 1.692 billion yuan from 2015 to 2024, with a CAGR of 4.93%. Cumulatively, the company has distributed 3.108 billion yuan in cash dividends during the same period, and it commits to a minimum annual cash dividend of 0.475 yuan per share for the next three years, provided profits are positive and cash flow supports ongoing operations [1][2]. Competitive Advantages - The core asset of the company is the Dongguan-Shenzhen Expressway, strategically located in the Pearl River Delta, serving as a vital link between Guangzhou, Dongguan, and Shenzhen. From 2015 to 2024, toll revenue from this expressway increased from 930 million to 1.32 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 3.9%, and traffic volume rose from 66.7 million to 125.53 million vehicles, with a CAGR of 7.3%. The ongoing expansion project is expected to enhance traffic capacity significantly upon completion in December 2028 [2]. Strategic Diversification - The company is exploring a diversified strategy, including financial investments and new energy initiatives. Its financial services encompass commercial factoring and leasing, with projected gross margins exceeding 50% in 2024. However, the factoring business faced a net loss of 28 million yuan due to impairment provisions. In the new energy sector, revenue from electric vehicle charging services is expected to reach 86 million yuan in 2024, although margins are under pressure due to declining demand and competitive challenges [3]. Profit Forecast - The company anticipates net profits of 812 million, 856 million, and 888 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -15.0%, 5.4%, and 3.8%. The current price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 13.1, 12.4, and 11.9 times for the respective years. Comparable companies include China Merchants Highway, Ninghu Expressway, and Sichuan Chengyu [3].

Investment Rating - The report gives an initial investment rating of "Buy" for Dongguan Holdings, emphasizing its strong position in the expressway sector and stable dividend commitments to shareholders [4][6][71]. Core Viewpoints - Dongguan Holdings focuses on its core business of expressway operations, particularly the advantageous position of the Dongshen Expressway, which is a vital part of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area's transportation network [5][8]. - The company has committed to a minimum annual cash dividend of no less than 0.475 CNY per share for the years 2025-2027, reflecting its emphasis on shareholder returns [5][33]. - The ongoing expansion project of the Dongshen Expressway is expected to significantly enhance traffic capacity and toll revenue in the long term, despite short-term challenges during the construction phase [5][45][71]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's total revenue increased from 1.097 billion CNY in 2015 to 1.692 billion CNY in 2024, with a CAGR of 4.93% [5][18]. - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 812 million CNY, 856 million CNY, and 888 million CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of -15.0%, 5.4%, and 3.8% respectively [6][71]. Business Segments - The expressway business remains the core revenue driver, contributing 78.19% of total revenue in 2024, with toll revenue from the Dongshen Expressway reaching 1.323 billion CNY [18][22]. - The financial investment segment, including commercial factoring and leasing, is expected to provide stable income, while the new energy sector is expanding but facing short-term profitability challenges [51][58]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing a multi-faceted strategy that includes optimizing its asset portfolio by focusing on expressway operations and divesting non-core assets [71]. - The ongoing expansion of the Dongshen Expressway is projected to alleviate traffic congestion and enhance toll revenue, with completion expected by December 2028 [5][45]. Market Position - Dongguan Holdings is positioned as a key player in the expressway sector within the Greater Bay Area, benefiting from its strategic location and the ongoing integration of regional transportation networks [8][71]. - The company’s financial health is supported by a strong shareholder base and a commitment to maintaining a stable dividend policy [33][71].