以下文章来源于豹变 ，作者詹方歌 豹变 . 直抵核心。做最具穿透力、洞察力的商业观察，深度影响未来。 老干妈如何躺着把钱赚了？ 来源：豹变 作者： 詹方歌 编辑： 邢昀 茅 台 跌价，老干妈营收重回巅峰 ，消费降级大环境下的市场情绪，被两家来自贵州的消费企 业狠狠拿捏住了。 最近 发布的《 2025贵州企业100强》数据 显示 ，老干妈 2024年销售额达到53.91 亿元， 已接近 2020年54.03亿元的历史最高水平。 在众多品牌忙于直播带货、线上营销的当下，老干妈 看似采取了 近乎 "躺平"的策略。 它 在 抖音等平台几乎没有常态化直播和达人投放，社交媒体账号也已长期停更，主要依靠消费者的 自然复购维持线上销售。 但根据老干妈陶华碧和公司管理层的叙述，公司其实没有停止新品开发，海外市场的拓展也卓 有成效。 "躺赢"或许不是这场突围的本质，"有攻有守"才是 。 这里插播一条课程资讯： 报名 「吴世春·西安出行活动」， 1月22日-24日 ， 吴世春将亲自带队 100家企业家 ， 去陕 西西安线下游学 ， 走进科技制造产业，打开万亿赛道蓝海。 你 在 创业路上遇到的问题和想法 ， 都可以找吴老师聊聊 。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the food and beverage industry, particularly focusing on structural growth in mass-market products [4][18]. Core Insights - The recent leadership change at Kweichow Moutai is expected to enhance collaboration with the government and support the company's goals for 2025. Short-term price fluctuations are anticipated, but medium-term signals indicate industry clearing, demand stimulation, and price stabilization [1][17]. - The mass-market segment shows promising growth, with Dongpeng Beverage's Q3 profits exceeding expectations, supported by stable growth and expansion of its second growth curve [1][4]. Summary by Sections Core Company Tracking - Kweichow Moutai: Leadership change with Chen Hua taking over as chairman, expected to strengthen government collaboration. Q3 results show a decline in revenue and net profit by 4.9% and 33.0% respectively, but the company remains resilient [12]. - Dongpeng Beverage: Q3 revenue and net profit increased by 30.4% and 41.9% respectively, driven by strong sales and network expansion [13]. - Jinwei Wine: Q3 revenue and net profit decreased by 22.8% and 45.7% respectively, facing ongoing performance pressure [12]. - Zhangjing Food: Q3 revenue and net profit increased by 0.1% and 9.1% respectively, with stable growth in core products [14]. - Qiaqia Food: Q3 revenue and net profit decreased by 5.9% and 72.6% respectively, facing pressure from traditional product demand [15]. - Jinzai Food: Q3 revenue increased by 6.5%, but net profit decreased by 14.8% [16]. - Guobao Pet: Q3 revenue increased by 21.9%, but net profit decreased by 16.6% due to export pressures [16]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on mass-market products, particularly in snacks and beverages, while also increasing attention on the health products sector. Recommended companies include Ximai Food, Weilong, and Nongfu Spring [4][18]. - In the pet sector, it is advised to monitor companies like Zhongchong and Guobao Pet after recent market adjustments [18]. - For the liquor segment, potential buying opportunities are expected in Q4 as price risks are alleviated, with a focus on leading brands such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao [10][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Views - The company's Q3 revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.11% and 9.10% year-on-year, respectively, with revenue showing improvement on a quarter-on-quarter basis. The net profit margin benefited from a decrease in raw material costs [1][4]. - The performance of mushroom sauce remains stable, while scallion oil sauce faces growth challenges. The company is actively addressing competitive issues and developing new channels, indicating that the scallion oil sauce has not yet reached its ceiling. There are expectations for a combination of online and offline channels to drive category recovery, along with contributions from other new products [1][4]. - The company anticipates EPS of 1.25 and 1.27 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to a valuation of 23X for 2025 [1][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first nine months of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 826 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.56%, and a net profit of 154 million yuan, an increase of 3.18%. In Q3 alone, revenue was 300 million yuan, up 0.11% year-on-year, and net profit was 53 million yuan, up 9.10% year-on-year [4]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 43.76%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower prices for raw materials such as pepper and scallions. The selling expense ratio was 14.40%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the management expense ratio was 5.93%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company expects continued cost benefits and improved production efficiency from the launch of smart production lines, along with structural optimization leading to sustained gross margin improvement [4]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the stable growth of mushroom sauce and anticipates new products like garlic sauce and zero-fat spicy sauce to contribute to growth in the coming year [4]. - The report highlights that the company is reducing promotional expenses in a weak recovery consumer environment, which, combined with cost reductions, is expected to enhance profitability [4].

Group 1 - The company achieved operating revenue of 1.098 billion yuan in FY24, a year-on-year increase of 10.40%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 175 million yuan, up 1.81% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 of FY24, the company reported operating revenue of 259 million yuan, a slight decline of 0.36% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 26 million yuan, down 18.77% year-on-year [1] - The company plans to distribute an annual dividend of 0.8 yuan per share, resulting in a total dividend payout of 1 yuan per share for FY24, with a payout ratio of 83% [1] Group 2 - The seasoning food segment showed steady growth, with revenues from seasoning foods, seasoning ingredients, and other businesses reaching 625 million, 462 million, and 10 million yuan respectively in FY24, representing year-on-year increases of 12.12%, 6.60%, and 250% [2] - The company expanded its distribution channels, with the number of distributors increasing to 2,207 by the end of FY24, an increase of 112 from H1 [2] Group 3 - The company's gross margin for FY24 was 41.7%, while Q4 gross margin was 38.4%, reflecting a year-on-year change of +0.14 and -3.21 percentage points respectively [3] - Rising costs were attributed to increased prices of raw materials such as scallions and mushrooms, while sales expenses increased due to greater investment in e-commerce channels [3] - The net profit margin for FY24 was 16.0%, down 1.35 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin excluding non-recurring items was 15.19%, down 1.28 percentage points [3] Group 4 - The company aims for continuous positive growth in main business revenue for FY25, with a focus on enhancing the consumer experience for its scallion oil products [4] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio of 83% for FY24 [4] Group 5 - Revenue forecasts for FY25 and FY26 have been adjusted down to 1.213 billion and 1.335 billion yuan respectively, with EPS estimates also revised down to 1.34 and 1.48 yuan [5] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with a PE ratio of 21, 19, and 17 times for FY25, FY26, and FY27 respectively [5]