广发证券发布研报称，预计周大福(01929)FY26-28财年分别实现归母净利润79.9、90.26、98.18亿港 元，同比增长35.0%、13.0%、8.8%。参考可比公司估值，给予公司26财年25x PE，对应合理价值为 19.99港元/股，给予"买入"评级。 广发证券主要观点如下： 事件：公司发布FY26中期业绩(2025.4.1-2025.9.30)，FY26H1收入389.9港元，同比降低1.1%;经营利润 68.2亿港元，同比增长0.7%;经营利润率同比增加0.3pp至17.5%;归母净利润25.6亿港元，同比基本持平。 公司宣布中期每股派息0.22港元，派息率85.7%，延续高分红回报股东;同店方面，内地同店销售同比增 长2.6%，港澳地区同店销售同比增长4.4%。 定价首饰销售表现突出，支撑盈利能力保持较强韧性 FY26H1内地定价首饰同店销售同比增长8.3%，计价黄金同比增长3.1%;港澳及其他市场定价首饰同店销 售同比增长6.1%，计价黄金同比增长8.5%。价格方面，定价黄金/计价黄金同店均价增长显著，镶嵌类 均价相对稳健。得益于标志性产品高增，公司上半财年定价首饰零售额同比增长9.3% ...

FY26H1内地定价首饰同店销售同比增长8.3%，计价黄金同比增长3.1%;港澳及其他市场定价首饰同店销 售同比增长6.1%，计价黄金同比增长8.5%。价格方面，定价黄金/计价黄金同店均价增长显著，镶嵌类 均价相对稳健。得益于标志性产品高增，公司上半财年定价首饰零售额同比增长9.3%，收入占比由 27.4%提升至31.8%，支撑毛利率维持在约30.5%。 门店网络持续优化，店效提升是核心发力点 智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，预计周大福(01929)FY26-28财年分别实现归母净利润79.9、 90.26、98.18亿港元，同比增长35.0%、13.0%、8.8%。参考可比公司估值，给予公司26财年25x PE，对 应合理价值为19.99港元/股，给予"买入"评级。 广发证券主要观点如下： 事件：公司发布FY26中期业绩(2025.4.1-2025.9.30)，FY26H1收入389.9港元，同比降低1.1%;经营利润 68.2亿港元，同比增长0.7%;经营利润率同比增加0.3pp至17.5%;归母净利润25.6亿港元，同比基本持平。 公司宣布中期每股派息0.22港元，派息率85.7%，延续高分红回 ...

Core Viewpoint - The popularity of "fixed-price" gold is driven by consumers' careful selection, as its price is approaching that of weight-based gold, making it more attractive as the latter's price rises [1][2]. Price Adjustments - On October 26, Laopu Gold completed its third price adjustment of the year, with an increase of approximately 18%-25%, exceeding the previous maximum of 12% [2]. - Other brands like Chow Tai Fook are also raising retail prices for fixed-price gold products by 12%-18% by the end of October [2]. - A surge in consumer purchases occurred before these price hikes, leading to long queues at various stores [2][6]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly favoring "fixed-price" gold due to its perceived value compared to weight-based gold, which has seen rising prices [2][8]. - A consumer reported purchasing a "fixed-price" gold bracelet at a lower price per gram than the current weight-based gold price, indicating a trend towards value-seeking behavior [4][5]. Inventory Issues - Many stores are experiencing stock shortages of "fixed-price" gold items due to high demand, with some popular styles requiring several days for restocking [6][10]. - The cash flow pressure on gold retailers is increasing, as rising gold prices lead to higher procurement costs while consumer spending remains cautious [10][14]. Financial Performance - Despite the popularity of fixed-price gold, brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook have reported overall revenue declines, with Chow Tai Fook's revenue down 17.5% to HKD 896.6 billion, despite a 105.5% increase in fixed-price gold sales [12][13]. - The financial reports indicate that while fixed-price gold has improved gross margins, the overall sales performance remains weak due to high costs and subdued market demand [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The recent price adjustments in the gold jewelry market, particularly the significant increase in "fixed-price" gold products, reflect a response to the volatility of international gold prices, leading to a surge in consumer demand and purchasing behavior [2][3][12]. Price Adjustments - On October 26, Laopu Gold completed its third price adjustment of the year, with an increase of approximately 18% to 25%, surpassing the previous maximum adjustment of 12% [2]. - Other brands, such as Chow Tai Fook, are also raising retail prices for fixed-price gold products by an estimated 12% to 18% by the end of October [2]. - The price gap between fixed-price gold and weight-based gold has narrowed, making fixed-price gold more appealing to consumers [3][7]. Consumer Behavior - A buying frenzy has emerged in the market as consumers rush to purchase gold before the price hikes take effect, leading to shortages of popular items [2][6]. - Consumers are increasingly opting for fixed-price gold due to its perceived value, as the price per gram is now closer to that of weight-based gold [3][4][7]. - The demand for fixed-price gold is driven by a more cautious consumer approach, with many seeking better value amidst rising gold prices [7][9]. Inventory and Supply Issues - Many stores are experiencing stock shortages of fixed-price gold items due to high consumer demand, with some popular styles requiring several days for restocking [6][8]. - The cash flow pressure on jewelry stores is increasing as the cost of purchasing gold rises in line with international prices, while consumer spending remains cautious [9][12]. Financial Performance - Despite the popularity of fixed-price gold, brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook have reported overall revenue declines, indicating that increased sales of fixed-price products have not translated into improved financial performance [10][11]. - Chow Tai Fook's revenue for the fiscal year 2025 decreased by 17.5% to HKD 896.6 billion, despite a 105.5% increase in sales of fixed-price gold products [11][12]. - The financial struggles are compounded by high operational costs and a lack of robust market demand, leading to a challenging environment for jewelry brands [12].