证券研究报告 | 2025年08月28日 周大生（002867.SZ） 优于大市 单二季度归母净利润增长 31%， "悦己"趋势带动饰品增长 收入承压，利润表现相对稳定。公司 2025 上半年实现营收 45.97 亿元，同 比-43.29%，归母净利润 5.94 亿元，同比-1.27%。单二季度看，收入同比 -38.47%至 19.24 亿元，归母净利润同比+31.32%至 3.42 亿元，较一季度显 著改善，受益毛利率增加及广告营销相关费用优化。整体上，公司收入在金 价高企、终端需求观望承压而影响加盟商拿货，以及净关店下出现下滑，但 利润受益产品结构优化、金价利好毛利及营销费用优化下表现相对稳定。 此外，公司拟每 10 股派发现金股 2.5 元（含税），合计派发现金股利 2.71 亿元， 占当期归母净利润的 46%。 饰品类目需求增长，电商业务整体经营保持平稳。分业务模式看，自营线下 实现收入 8.9 亿元，同比-7.56%；电商 11.68 亿元，同比-1.94%。加盟业务 实现收入 24.25 亿元，同比-59.12%，受制于加盟客户在高金价环境下普遍 降低补货频次影响。分产品类型看，素金产品受金价上涨 ...

黄金珠宝行业七夕消费趋势和下半年展望 20250824 摘要 潮宏基预计 8 月底同店销售额将实现 10%以上的增长，整体增速预计在 4%-5%，优于行业平均水平，主要受益于七夕节日期错位及低基数效应。 潮宏基加盟商预计下半年同店增长保持在 25%-30%，总体增速可达 40%以上，全年增速可能达到 45%，主要受益于低基数效应、高金价 优势及新开门店渠道扩张。 潮宏基单店平均销售额预计可达 750 万元，华东大区 700 万元以上， 华东大区同店销售增长幅度预计在 20%-30%以上，未来两三年内有望 接近 1,000 万元。 潮宏基黄金克重类产品占比上升至 60%，高于全国和华东地区平均水平； 黄金一口价产品占比约 30%，其中小件产品占 20%，大件镶嵌系列占 10%。 潮宏基主要客户群体集中在 20 岁到 45 岁之间，90 后及 95 后占比下降， 但件单价和客单价显著增长，总人群打包后的平均件单价提升至 4,000- 4,500 元，客单价达到 6,000-7,000 元。 潮宏基加盟商认为，今年下半年及明年的市场趋势总体向好。由于去年三四季 度低基数效应和今年高金价带来的优势，将推动整体市场表现 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the fashion jewelry industry, specifically focusing on the performance of a jewelry brand in July 2025, highlighting significant sales growth and trends in customer behavior related to gold products. Core Insights and Arguments - **Sales Growth**: Overall sales in July 2025 increased by 59% year-on-year, with weight-based gold sales growing by 68% and fixed-price gold sales increasing by 64%. In contrast, embedded and plain gold products saw declines of 24% and 23% respectively [1][3][4]. - **Same-Store Sales**: The improvement in same-store sales is attributed to customers adapting to high gold prices and an increase in the old-for-new exchange ratio from over 30% last year to over 40% this year. This exchange program has boosted front-end revenue, although it has a limited impact on brand owners [1][5][6]. - **Customer Behavior**: Customers opting for the old-for-new exchange are primarily purchasing weight-based gold, indicating a trend where higher purchasing power customers prefer larger items [1][9]. - **Market Outlook**: The company maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for August 2025, with expectations for improved performance in the East China region ahead of the Qixi Festival [1][11]. Additional Important Content - **Store Expansion**: As of the end of July 2025, the company opened 38 new stores, with plans to accelerate store openings in the second half of the year. The annual sales target has been adjusted to a 25% increase compared to 2024, with a 10%-20% increase in the second half [4][15][17]. - **Promotional Strategies**: For the Qixi Festival, the company plans to promote cultural products from the Palace Museum and collaborate with various IPs, while also considering adjusting discount strategies to remain competitive [1][13][14]. - **Old-for-New Policy Impact**: While the old-for-new policy reduces gross margins for franchisees, it does not necessarily decrease their net profits due to reduced VAT burdens from purchasing new goods with recovered old gold [6][7]. - **Sales Targets for Qixi Festival**: The company aims to sell between 6,000 to 8,000 pieces of targeted products at a unit price of 2,400 yuan during the Qixi Festival [19]. - **Autumn Order Meeting**: The company is optimistic about the upcoming autumn order meeting, targeting 2.8 billion yuan in order revenue, with upgraded operational methods to enhance order completion rates [21][22]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the company's performance, market strategies, and future outlook within the fashion jewelry industry.

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and profit for the year 2024 and Q1 2025, with a focus on maintaining brand strength and expanding direct sales channels despite industry challenges [1][3][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Full Year Results**: Revenue was 13.89 billion, down 14.7% YoY; gross profit was 2.89 billion, down 2.2% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.01 billion, down 23.2% YoY. The company distributed a dividend of 0.95 per share, with a payout ratio of 102.1% [1]. - **Q4 2024 Results**: Revenue was 3.08 billion, down 18.8% YoY; gross profit was 0.67 billion, down 2.1% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.16 billion, down 29.7% YoY [2]. - **Q1 2025 Results**: Revenue was 2.67 billion, down 47.3% YoY; gross profit was 0.70 billion, down 11.3% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.25 billion, down 26.1% YoY [3]. Revenue Breakdown - **2024 Revenue by Product**: Solid gold products generated 11.44 billion, down 16.6%; embedded products generated 0.76 billion, down 17.4%; other jewelry (silver and jade) generated 0.60 billion, up 66.7%. By channel, self-operated offline revenue was 1.74 billion, up 7.8%; online revenue was 2.79 billion, up 11.4%; franchise revenue was 9.19 billion, down 23.3% [4]. - **Q1 2025 Revenue by Product**: Solid gold products generated 2.12 billion, down 53.2%; embedded products generated 0.13 billion, up 0.2%; other jewelry generated 0.15 billion, up 36.5%. By channel, self-operated offline revenue was 0.53 billion, down 16.3%; online revenue was 0.53 billion, down 6.7%; franchise revenue was 1.58 billion, down 58.6% [4]. Profitability Analysis - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin for 2024 was 20.8%, up 2.7 percentage points; for Q1 2025, it was 26.2%, up 10.6 percentage points, attributed to rising gold prices and changes in revenue structure [5]. - **Expense Ratios**: In 2024, the sales and management expense ratios were 8.4% and 0.8%, respectively, both up YoY. For Q1 2025, these ratios increased by 4.5 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points [5]. - **Net Profit Margin**: The net profit margin for 2024 was 7.3%, down 0.8 percentage points; for Q1 2025, it was 9.4%, up 2.7 percentage points [6]. Strategic Outlook - The company aims for a revenue and net profit growth of 5-15% in 2025. Profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 1.11 billion and 1.29 billion, respectively, with a P/E ratio of approximately 13x for 2025 and a dividend yield of about 7% [7].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·饰品 周大生（002867） 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评：持续高分 红，期待 25 年业绩逐季修复 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 16,290 | 13,891 | 15,225 | 16,739 | 18,379 | | 同比（%） | 46.52 | (14.73) | 9.60 | 9.95 | 9.79 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,316 | 1,010 | 1,112 | 1,216 | 1,307 | | 同比（%） | 20.67 | (23.25) | 10.07 | 9.33 | 7.48 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.20 | 0.92 | 1.01 | 1.11 | 1.19 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 10.85 | 14.14 | 12.84 | 11.75 | 10.93 | [Table_T ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in performance throughout 2025, following a challenging 2024 due to pressures in the gold jewelry industry [8] - The company has a strong dividend policy, committing to distribute at least 50% of its cumulative distributable profits in cash over any three consecutive years [8] - Despite a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, the company anticipates a return to growth in 2025, with quarterly improvements expected starting from Q2 2025 [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 13.89 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.73% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.01 billion yuan, down 23.25% [8] - For Q1 2025, revenue is expected to be 2.673 billion yuan, reflecting a 47.3% decline year-on-year, with a net profit of 252 million yuan, down 26.1% [8] - The gross margin improved significantly, with 2024 gross margin at 20.80% (up 2.6 percentage points) and Q1 2025 gross margin at 26.21% (up 10.6 percentage points) [8] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 is 7.27%, slightly down from the previous year, while Q1 2025 shows an increase to 9.43% [8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow to 15.23 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 9.60%, and net profit is projected to reach 1.11 billion yuan, up 10.07% [1][8] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.01 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.84 based on the latest diluted EPS [1][8] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 13.03 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 14.28 billion yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.16 and a net asset value per share of 6.03 yuan [5][6]

公司4.28 公告24 年收入/归母净利润138.9/10.1 亿元、同比-14.73%/-23.25%，其中Q4 收入/归母净利润 30.83/1.55亿元、同比-18.79%/-29.69%。 1Q25 营收/ 归母净利润26.73/2.52 亿元、同比-47.28%/-26.12%，毛利额7.01 亿元、同比-11.25%，业绩 承压主要系金价高企抑制黄金消费。 经营分析 金价高位攀升抑制消费需求、素金类承压，镶嵌类同比微增，银饰等其他辅品类表现亮眼。1Q25 素金/ 镶嵌类收入1.28/21.15 亿元、同比+0.15%/-53.15% ， 营收占比4.79%/79.11%；银饰等其他辅品类收入 1.5 亿元、同比+36.5%。 加盟业务受客户进货补充库存意愿较低影响收入端降幅较大，自营及电商受益产品结构优化利润率改善 明显。 自营：1Q25 电商收入5.34 亿元、同比-6.71%，其中镶嵌/黄金/ 辅品类收入0.38/3.27/1.45 亿元、同 比-8.17%/-17.61%/+31.59%；自营线下收入5.27 亿元、同比-16.29% ， 其中镶嵌/ 黄金收入0.33/4.85 亿 元、同比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profit margins for the first quarter of 2025, attributed to external economic uncertainties and cautious consumer behavior in the jewelry market [4][6][7]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 2.673 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a decrease of 47.28% compared to the same period last year [6]. - Gross profit for the same period was 701 million yuan, down 11.25% year-on-year, with an overall gross margin of 26.21%, an increase of 10.64 percentage points from the previous year [6]. - Revenue breakdown by product category showed that embedded products generated 128 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.15%, while gold products saw a 53.15% decline to 2.115 billion yuan [6]. - Revenue from e-commerce was 534 million yuan, down 6.71%, with gold product sales decreasing by 17.61% [7]. Store Operations - As of the end of the reporting period, the company had 4,831 retail stores, a net decrease of 177 stores since the beginning of the year [7]. Profit Distribution Plan - The company proposed a profit distribution plan for 2024, with a total cash dividend of 1.031 billion yuan, representing 102.09% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [16]. - The plan includes a cash dividend of 6.5 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 705.56 million yuan, with no stock dividends or capital reserve transfers [14][16]. Cash Management Strategy - The company approved a plan to use up to 1 billion yuan of idle funds for low-risk financial products to enhance fund utilization efficiency and returns [22][26]. - The investment will focus on low-risk products from reputable financial institutions, ensuring the safety of the principal and liquidity [26][28].