黄金珠宝本轮行情持续性探讨 20250618 摘要 2024 年上半年，周大福和老凤祥整体增速约为 5 个百分点，老庙增长 5-6 个百分点，潮宏基表现较好，增长幅度在 30%左右。但若剔除金价 上涨因素（约十几%），各品牌销量均有所下滑，仅潮宏基保持平稳增 长。 预计 2025 年，周大福和老凤祥力求维持现有门店数量，不撤店。潮宏 基计划撤掉部分绩效差的门店以提升整体业绩，全年目标是跟随黄金珠 宝行业大节奏，预计增速为 25%，同店增速预计 20%左右。 长虹佳华新开门店面积 60-80 平米，前期投入（含黄金货品铺设）约 700 万-900 万元，需铺设 8-10 公斤黄金。目前单店年流水平均 600 万-800 万元，回本周期约三年，相比两年前有所拉长。 头部品牌周大福正进行全国范围大规模调整，预计撤店 5,000-6,000 家。 公司评估佐丹奴卡营业额低于 80 万的门店，计划逐步撤掉。预计 2026 年珠宝行业门店调整基本完成。 目前克重黄金占比约为 60%-65%，一口价黄金占比约为 30%-35%， 镶嵌类和 18K 金产品占比不到 5%。克重黄金纯利率约为 5%-8%，一 口价黄金纯利率约为 ...

多行业黄金板块解读及后市判断 20250615 Q&A 今年以来黄金市场的宏观表现如何？ 今年以来黄金市场表现出显著波动，主要受到多种宏观因素的影响。去年年底， 黄金价格在 2,400 至 2,500 美元之间波动，今年逐渐上升并突破 3,500 美元。 尽管如此，从长期来看，黄金作为资产的配置逻辑仍然适用，但其网红属性决 定了在价格高涨时不宜过度追高，而在调整时则是不错的配置机会。近期，中 东局势进一步发酵，美国与伊朗核谈判进入第六轮，以色列对伊朗发起代号 "狮子力量"的大规模军事行动，这些地缘政治风险显著提振了黄金和原油价 格。 从宏观角度看，哪些因素影响了黄金市场？ 从宏观角度看，影响黄金市场的因素主要包括长期美元贬值及潜在的美元换锚 问题、中期供需关系以及短期地缘政治事件。首先，美国高债务背景下，通过 一口价黄金商品因其性价比和高毛利率，在金价上涨趋势中优势明显， 更受消费者青睐，推动相关公司估值突破。投资者应关注企业一口价产 品销售占比。 港股黄金公司如招金矿业、潼关黄金等被低估，内生增长确定性高，PE 估值有望下降至个位数。小票弹性大，大票估值折价空间仍存，值得投 资者关注。 通胀和贬值来缓解债务 ...

$老铺黄金(06181.HK)作为新消费领域的 "当家花旦"，老铺上市以来凭借一年十倍的逆天表现可以说吸足了投资者眼球，截至 6.13 日收盘，老铺已经成为港 股市值最高的金饰企业。 一路飙升的股价后面是老铺高速增长的业绩，在大众消费降级，高奢在国内遭遇 "滑铁卢" 的背景下，2022-2024 年间老铺营收从 13 亿元逆势飙升至 85 亿 元，CAGR 高达 157%，让无数老字号金店黯然失色。 但老铺一路上涨的背后，也不乏各种类似于 "古法工艺是智商税"，"老铺是伪奢侈品" 的看空观点，因此，本文海豚君站在中立的视角，和各位投资者聊聊 老铺的投资价值。 一、老铺黄金是家怎样的公司？ 1、老铺的前身是收藏家品牌 在深入探讨老铺的商业模式前，先介绍下这家公司的基本情况。老铺黄金前身是主要经营佛教文化产品及旅游纪念品公司金色宝藏，2009 年成立的老铺作 为金色宝藏的子品牌，主要经营古法金产品。 老铺将古法工艺与佛教文化相结合，让产品不仅充满传统文化底蕴，还融入了一些玄学色彩，彼时老铺的受众群体以高净值的收藏家为主，对产品的工艺、 稀缺性及文化价值有比较高的要求。这种收藏家基因也赋予了老铺 "高格调" 与 " ...

作为新消费领域的"当家花旦"，老铺上市以来凭借一年十倍的逆天表现可以说吸足了投资者眼球，截至6.13日收盘，老铺已经成为港股市值最高的金饰企业。 一路飙升的股价后面是老铺高速增长的业绩，在大众消费降级，高奢在国内遭遇"滑铁卢"的背景下，2022-2024年间老铺营收从13亿元逆势飙升至85亿元，CAGR 高达157%，让无数老字号金店黯然失色。 但老铺一路上涨的背后，也不乏各种类似于 "古法工艺是智商税"，"老铺是伪奢侈品"的看空观点，因此，本文海豚君站在中立的视角，和各位投资者聊聊老铺的 投资价值。 本篇我们试图通过两个问题来展开： 1）和传统金饰企业相比，老铺黄金"新"在哪里？ 2）和国际奢侈品相比，老铺还有多少差距？ 也欢迎大家长按识别下方二维码加入我们的交流群，对相关话题进行更深入的交流，群内不仅会有我们对消费、互联网、新能源等板块持续的观点更新，还 有一些 独家、免费的纪要、估值等内容，还能与专业投研人士共同探讨投资观点。 以下为详细内容 一、老铺黄金是家怎样的公司？ 1、老铺的前身是收藏家品牌 在深入探讨老铺的商业模式前，先介绍下这家公司的基本情况。老铺黄金前身是主要经营佛教文化产品及旅游纪念品公 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Chow Tai Fook, but it provides insights into the company's performance and expectations for future profitability [4][8]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook's overall retail sales value (RSV) declined by 11.6% year-on-year in FY25Q4, with the Mainland market and Hong Kong/Macao markets experiencing declines of 10.4% and 20.7% respectively, primarily due to macroeconomic factors and high gold prices affecting consumer sentiment [1][9]. - Despite the decline in same-store sales volume, the company successfully increased the RSV share of high-margin products by optimizing its product mix and adjusting pricing, leading to an increase in same-store average selling price (ASP) [1][11]. - The ASP for gold jewelry in Mainland China rose to HK$6,400, a 14.3% increase from HK$5,600 in FY24, while in Hong Kong and Macau, it rose to HK$8,600, a 14.7% increase from HK$7,500 [1][9]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - In FY25Q4, same-store RSV in the Mainland market decreased by 10.4%, with direct-managed and franchised stores seeing declines of 13.2% and 8.7% respectively. The Hong Kong and Macau markets recorded a 22.5% decline in same-store RSV [2][10]. - The high gold prices have suppressed consumer willingness to purchase gold jewelry, impacting sales of gram-weight products [2][10]. Product Strategy - The company accelerated the introduction of set-price products, which accounted for 19% of total RSV in FY25, exceeding the initial target of 15%. This proportion is expected to increase to 20%-23% in FY26 [3][11]. - The RSV share of priced products in the gold jewelry category rose from 9.4% in FY24Q4 to 25.6% in FY25Q4, surpassing management expectations [3][11]. Store Network Optimization - Chow Tai Fook closed 896 stores in the Mainland market during FY25, primarily underperforming locations, with a total of 6,423 stores globally as of FY25Q4 [5][12]. - The company opened two new image stores in Shanghai and Wuhan, achieving higher productivity levels compared to closed stores, with average monthly sales of approximately HK$1 million [5][12]. Collaborative Products - In March 2025, Chow Tai Fook launched a co-branded gold jewelry collection with Chiikawa, featuring nine designs that sold out quickly, indicating strong market demand for innovative products [6][13].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Chow Tai Fook, but it discusses expectations for gross profit margin and operating profit margin improvements, indicating a positive outlook for the company [1][9][11]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook's overall retail sales value (RSV) declined by 11.6% year-on-year in FY25Q4, with the Mainland market and Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets experiencing declines of 10.4% and 20.7% respectively, primarily due to macroeconomic factors and high gold prices affecting consumer sentiment [1][10]. - Despite the decline in same-store sales volume, the company successfully increased the RSV share of high-margin products through product mix optimization and flexible pricing adjustments, leading to an increase in same-store average selling price (ASP) [1][9][11]. - The ASP for gold jewelry in Mainland China rose to HK$6,400, a 14.3% increase from the previous year, while in Hong Kong and Macau, it increased to HK$8,600, a 14.7% rise [1][9]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In FY25Q4, same-store RSV in the Mainland market decreased by 10.4%, with direct-managed and franchised stores seeing declines of 13.2% and 8.7% respectively. The Hong Kong and Macau markets recorded a 22.5% decline in same-store RSV [2][10]. - The high gold prices have suppressed consumer willingness to purchase gold jewelry, impacting sales of gram-weight products [2][10]. Product Strategy - The company accelerated the introduction of set-price products, achieving a 19% share of total RSV in FY2025, exceeding the initial target of 15%. This share is expected to rise to 20%-23% in FY2026 [3][11]. - The RSV share of set-price products in the gold jewelry category increased from 9.4% in FY24Q4 to 25.6% in FY25Q4, surpassing management expectations [3][11]. Store Network Optimization - Chow Tai Fook closed 896 stores in the Mainland market during FY2025, primarily underperforming locations, with a total of 6,423 stores globally as of FY25Q4 [5][12]. - The company opened two new image stores in Shanghai and Wuhan, achieving higher productivity levels compared to closed stores, with average monthly sales of approximately HK$1 million [5][12]. Collaborative Products - In March 2025, Chow Tai Fook launched a co-branded gold jewelry collection with Chiikawa, featuring nine designs that sold out quickly, indicating strong market demand for innovative products [6][13].

作 者丨叶麦穗 编 辑丨方海平 短短一周时间，三家银行提升黄金积存金的投资起点。 3月2 6日晚间，建设银行接力招商银行和宁波银行发布关于调整个人黄金积存业务定期积存起 点金额的公告。建设银行表示自北京时间2 0 2 5年3月3 1日9 : 1 0起，该行个人黄金积存业务定 期积存起点金额（包括日均积存及自选日积存）由7 0 0元上调至8 0 0元。 事实上，3月1 4日现货黄金突破3 0 0 0美元/盎司大关后， 3月1 8日上期所黄金主力合约突破 7 0 0元大关，再创历史新高，国内银行随即纷纷上调积存金起投基点，目前最高起点为8 0 0 元。 未来或有更多银行上调积存金起点 积存金是实物黄金的账户化形式，该业务指的是银行为境内个人客户提供的以人民币为交易 结算货币的实物黄金投资业务。客户在银行开立个人结算账户，通过柜面或网银渠道购入以 黄金资产为标的份额，并可进行份额赎回、实物兑换，交易方式包括定期积存和主动积存。 由于启动资金相对较少，交易规则简单，叠加黄金自身的保值增值和避险特性，黄金积存业 务逐渐成为普通投资者青睐的黄金投资渠道。 伴随金价上涨，银行积存金产品购买门槛也"水涨船高"，特别是突破3 ...