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农产品期权策略早报-20251215
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-12-15 01:29
农产品期权 2025-12-15 农产品期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号:F3047321 | 交易咨询号:Z0015541 | 邮箱:lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号:F03138607 | 电话:0755-23375252 | 邮箱:huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号:F03090207 | 交易咨询号:Z0016947 | 邮箱:lirj@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要:油料油脂类农产品偏弱震荡,油脂类,农副产品维持震荡行情,软商品白糖小幅震荡, 棉花偏强盘整,谷物类玉米和淀粉偏多窄幅盘整。 策略上:构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1:标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | ( ...
农产品期权:农产品期权策略早报-20251211
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-12-11 02:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows different trends: oilseeds and oils are weakly volatile, fats and oils and agricultural by - products maintain a volatile market, soft commodity sugar fluctuates slightly, cotton consolidates strongly, and grains such as corn and starch are narrowly bullish [2]. - Strategies suggest constructing option combination strategies mainly as sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product futures have different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2601) is 4,159, up 36 with a gain of 0.87%, trading volume is 14.46 million lots, and open interest is 14.53 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Quantity and Position PCR - PCR indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For example, the trading volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.71, and the open interest PCR is 1.02 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of option underlyings are identified. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4250, and the support level is 4050 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility indicators show the market's expectation of future price fluctuations. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 10.5, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.46 [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1**: The fundamental situation has a slightly bullish impact. The option implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [7]. - **Soybean meal**: The trading volume and basis have certain changes. The option implied volatility is below the historical average. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [9]. - **Palm oil**: The production and inventory situation is complex. The option implied volatility is below the historical average. Directional strategy: Construct a bearish put option spread combination strategy; Volatility strategy: Construct a bearish call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [9]. - **Peanut**: The market is in a high - level consolidation stage. The option implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: None; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold long spot + buy put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [10]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - product Options - **Live pig**: The supply is relatively loose, and the demand increases. The option implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a bearish call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - covered strategy: Hold long spot + sell out - of - the - money call option [10]. - **Egg**: The egg - laying hen inventory is high, and the supply and demand are loose. The option implied volatility is at a relatively high level. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a bearish call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [11]. - **Apple**: The cold - storage inventory is decreasing. The option implied volatility is above the historical average. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a bullish call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [11]. - **Jujube**: The trading in the market is not active. The option implied volatility is above the historical average. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a bearish wide - straddle option combination strategy; Spot covered - hedging strategy: Hold long spot + sell out - of - the - money call option [12]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: The Brazilian sugarcane harvest is approaching, and the domestic supply and demand situation is complex. The option implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a bearish call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [12]. - **Cotton**: The spinning mill's operating rate is decreasing, and the inventory is increasing. The option implied volatility is at a low level. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral call + put option combination strategy; Spot collar strategy: Hold long spot + buy put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [13]. 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn**: The price has certain fluctuations. The option implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a bullish call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: None [13]. - **Starch**: The price is relatively stable. The option implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level. Directional strategy: Not provided; Volatility strategy: Not provided; Spot hedging strategy: Not provided [13]. 3.5.5 Other Options - **Log**: The price is decreasing. The option implied volatility is at a relatively high level. Directional strategy: Not provided; Volatility strategy: Not provided; Spot hedging strategy: Not provided [3]
农产品期权策略早报:农产品期权-20251107
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 02:47
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows a mixed trend, with oilseeds and oils fluctuating weakly, agricultural by - products and soft commodities like sugar and cotton having their own specific oscillating patterns, and grains such as corn and starch also in a weak and narrow - range consolidation. It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product futures show various price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the price of soybean No.1 (A2601) is 4,149, up 8 with a 0.19% increase, and its trading volume is 20.98 million lots with a decrease of 0.74 million lots compared to the previous period [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different agricultural product options are presented, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.55 with a change of - 0.30, and the open interest PCR is 1.16 with a change of - 0.04 [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the maximum open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of different agricultural product options are determined. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4,200 and the support level is 4,050 [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different agricultural product options is provided, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 11.805%, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.70% with a change of 0.12 [6] 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations for Different Agricultural Product Options 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1**: The soybean price is stable with a slight upward trend. The option implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. It is recommended to construct a neutral call + put option selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal market has a weak rebound. The option implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open interest PCR shows a weak market. A bearish call + put option selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [9] - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil market is in a high - level oscillation. The option implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates some support at the bottom. A bearish call + put option selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [9] - **Peanut**: The peanut market is in a weak consolidation. The option implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, and the open interest PCR shows a weak and oscillating market. A long collar strategy for spot hedging is recommended [10] 3.5.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Pig**: The pig market is in a weak downward trend. The option implied volatility is above the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. A bearish spread strategy for put options, a bearish call + put option selling strategy, and a covered call strategy for spot are recommended [10] - **Egg**: The egg market is in a weak and bearish trend. The option implied volatility is at a high level, and the open interest PCR shows a weak market. A bearish spread strategy for put options, a bearish call + put option selling strategy, and no spot hedging strategy are recommended [11] - **Apple**: The apple market is in a continuous upward trend with some pressure. The option implied volatility is above the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates strong support at the bottom. A bullish call + put option selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [11] - **Jujube**: The jujube market is in a weak and bearish trend. The option implied volatility has risen rapidly to above the historical average, and the open interest PCR shows a weak market. A wide - straddle option selling strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging are recommended [12] 3.5.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: The sugar market is in a weak and bearish trend. The option implied volatility is at a low historical level, and the open interest PCR indicates a range - bound market. A bearish call + put option selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [12] - **Cotton**: The cotton market is in a short - term weak trend. The option implied volatility is at a low level, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. A bearish call + put option selling strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging are recommended [13] 3.5.4 Grains Options - **Corn**: The corn market is in a weak and bearish trend with a rebound and then a decline. The option implied volatility is at a low historical level, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. A bearish call + put option selling strategy and no spot hedging strategy are recommended [13]
农产品期权策略早报:农产品期权-20251106
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 02:57
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows different trends. Oilseeds and oils are in a weak and volatile state, while some agricultural by - products and soft commodities maintain a volatile trend. The report suggests constructing option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product options have various price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the price of soybean No.1 (A2601) increased by 1.52% to 4,139, with a trading volume of 21.72 million lots and an open interest of 24.83 million lots [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different option varieties vary, which can be used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.85 with a change of - 0.29, and the open interest PCR is 1.20 with no change [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of different option varieties are determined. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4200 and the support level is 4050 [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties shows different levels and changes. For example, the weighted implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 12.58% with a change of 0.67%, and the annual average is 13.32% [6] 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations - **Oilseeds and Oils Options**: - **Soybean No.1**: The price is stable and slightly strong. It is recommended to construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean crushing volume has changed. It is recommended to construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Palm Oil**: The production and export of Malaysian palm oil have changed. It is recommended to construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Peanut**: The price of peanut oil is stable. It is recommended to use a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Agricultural By - products Options**: - **Pig**: The price has increased slightly, but there are supply - side pressures. It is recommended to construct a bear spread strategy for direction, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a covered strategy for spot [10] - **Egg**: The inventory of laying hens has decreased. It is recommended to construct a bear spread strategy for direction, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility [11] - **Apple**: The price has increased due to quality issues. It is recommended to construct a long - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] - **Jujube**: The inventory has increased. It is recommended to construct a short - biased strangle option combination strategy for volatility, and a covered strategy for spot hedging [12] - **Soft Commodities Options**: - **Sugar**: The spot price has decreased. It is recommended to construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12] - **Cotton**: The price index has increased. It is recommended to construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a covered strategy for spot [13] - **Grain Options**: - **Corn**: The supply has increased and the demand is weak. It is recommended to construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility [13]
农产品期权策略早报:农产品期权-20251105
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 01:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows different trends. Oilseeds and oils are weakly volatile, while some other products like eggs and apples have their own specific trends. Strategies mainly focus on constructing option - combination strategies based on sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product futures have various price changes. For example, the price of soybean No.1 (A2601) is 4,042, down 34 (-0.83%); the price of soybean No.2 (B2512) is 3,707, down 32 (-0.86%); and the price of palm oil (P2601) is 8,654, up 2 (0.02%) [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open - interest PCR of different agricultural product options vary. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 1.14, with a change of - 0.02; the open - interest PCR is 1.20, with a change of 0.05 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of option factors, different agricultural products have different pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4,200, and the support level is 4,050; the pressure level of soybean No.2 is 3,800, and the support level is 3,600 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different agricultural product options also shows differences. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 11.145, and the weighted implied volatility is 11.91, with a change of - 0.35 [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1**: The fundamental price is stable with a slight upward trend. The option implied volatility is below the historical average. The recommended strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean weekly crushing volume has decreased. The option implied volatility is below the historical average. The recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil**: The production of Malaysian palm oil faces pressure, and the export growth rate has narrowed. The option implied volatility is below the historical average. The recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Peanut**: The price of peanut oil is stable. The option implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level. The recommended strategy is a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - product Options - **Pig**: The average price in some regions has increased slightly. The option implied volatility is above the historical average. The recommended strategies include constructing a bear spread strategy with put options, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a covered call strategy for spot [10]. - **Egg**: The inventory of laying hens has decreased. The option implied volatility is at a relatively high level. The recommended strategies include constructing a bear spread strategy with put options and a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [11]. - **Apple**: The price of apple futures has increased. The option implied volatility is above the historical average. The recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Jujube**: The physical inventory has increased. The option implied volatility has risen rapidly. The recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased strangle option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [12]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: The spot price has decreased, and the basis has weakened. The option implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level. The recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Cotton**: The price index has increased, and the basis has fluctuated. The option implied volatility is at a relatively low level. The recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [13]. 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn**: The supply in the origin has increased, and the trading enthusiasm of traders has decreased. The option implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level. The recommended strategy is to construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [13].
农产品期权策略早报:农产品期权-20250930
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 02:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows a mixed trend, with oilseeds and oils being weakly volatile, while some products like apples show a warming - up trend. Strategies mainly focus on constructing option combination strategies based on sellers to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various agricultural product futures have different price changes, such as a 0.13% decline in soybean No.1 (A2511), a 0.22% decline in soybean No.2 (B2511), and a 0.49% increase in peanuts (PK2511) [3]. 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Different option varieties have different volume and open - interest PCR values, which reflect the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market. For example, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.60, and the open - interest PCR is 0.49 [4]. 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different option varieties are analyzed. For instance, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4000, and the support level is 3900 [5]. 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties shows different trends. For example, the implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 11.265%, and the weighted implied volatility is 13.07% [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies for Different Product Categories 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1**: Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **Soybean Meal**: Construct a bear - spread put option strategy, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Palm Oil**: Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Peanuts**: Construct a bear - spread put option strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - product Options - **Pigs**: Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long - spot + short - out - of - the - money call option strategy [12]. - **Eggs**: Construct a bear - spread put option strategy, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [13]. - **Apples**: Build a long - biased call + put option combination strategy [13]. - **Jujubes**: Build a long - biased wide - straddle option combination strategy and a long - spot + short - out - of - the - money call option strategy [14]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]. - **Cotton**: Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long - spot + long - put + short - out - of - the - money call option strategy [15]. 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn**: Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [15].
农产品期权策略早报:农产品期权-20250929
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows a mixed trend, with oilseeds and oils in a weak and volatile state, while some agricultural by - products and soft commodities are in a volatile or weak - consolidating situation. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various agricultural product futures show different price changes. For example, the latest price of soybean A2511 is 3,938, down 2 (-0.05%); the price of soybean meal M2511 is 2,903, down 13 (-0.45%); and the price of palm oil P2511 is 9,224, up 16 (0.17%) [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Different option varieties have different volume and open - interest PCR values and their changes. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean A is 0.42, down 0.06; the open - interest PCR is 0.47, up 0.02 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Each option variety has corresponding pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure level of soybean A is 4000, and the support level is 3900; the pressure level of soybean meal is 3100, and the support level is 3050 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility varies among different option varieties. For example, the weighted implied volatility of soybean A is 13.00, up 0.26; the weighted implied volatility of soybean meal is 16.37, up 0.45 [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies for Different Product Categories 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean A**: The implied volatility is below the historical average. The recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **Soybean Meal**: The implied volatility is below the historical average. Directional strategy: construct a bear - spread put option combination; volatility strategy: construct a short - biased call + put option combination; spot hedging: use a long collar strategy [10]. - **Palm Oil**: The implied volatility is falling below the historical average. Volatility strategy: construct a short - biased call + put option combination; spot hedging: use a long collar strategy [11]. - **Peanut**: The implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level. Directional strategy: construct a bear - spread put option combination; spot hedging: hold a long position in the spot + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [12]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Pig**: The implied volatility is above the historical average. Volatility strategy: construct a short - biased call + put option combination; spot covered strategy: hold a long position in the spot + sell an out - of - the - money call option [12]. - **Egg**: The implied volatility is relatively high. Directional strategy: construct a bear - spread put option combination; volatility strategy: construct a short - biased call + put option combination [13]. - **Apple**: The implied volatility is above the historical average. Volatility strategy: construct a long - biased call + put option combination [13]. - **Jujube**: The implied volatility is rising above the historical average. Volatility strategy: construct a short - biased strangle option combination; spot covered hedging strategy: hold a long position in the spot + sell an out - of - the - money call option [14]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: The implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level. Volatility strategy: construct a short - biased call + put option combination; spot hedging: use a long collar strategy [14]. - **Cotton**: The implied volatility is at a low level. Volatility strategy: construct a short - biased call + put option combination; spot covered strategy: hold a long position in the spot + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [15]. 3.5.4 Grains Options - **Corn**: The implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level. Volatility strategy: construct a short - biased call + put option combination [15].
农产品期权策略早报:农产品期权-20250919
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows different trends across various sectors. Oilseeds and oils are weakly volatile, while agricultural by - products, soft commodities, and grains maintain their respective oscillating patterns. It is recommended to construct option combination strategies mainly based on sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product futures show diverse price changes. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2511) is 3,898, with a rise of 6 and a rise - fall rate of 0.15%; the latest price of soybean No.2 (B2511) is 3,670, with no change [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open - interest PCR of different options vary. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.57 with a change of 0.01, and the open - interest PCR is 0.43 with a change of 0.01 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Each option has its corresponding pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure point of soybean No.1 is 3,950 and the support point is 3,900 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different options also shows differences. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 9.91%, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.19% with a change of - 0.98% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: The fundamental situation of US soybeans has a neutral - to - negative impact. The option strategy includes constructing a selling option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The daily提货量 of soybean meal has increased, and the basis has decreased. The option strategies include a bear spread strategy for direction and a selling option combination strategy for volatility, as well as a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is expected to increase. The option strategies include a selling option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Peanuts**: The price of peanuts shows a weak consolidation pattern. The option strategies include a bear spread strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Pigs**: The supply pressure of pigs is large. The option strategies include a selling option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [11]. - **Eggs**: The inventory of laying hens is expected to increase. The option strategies include a bear spread strategy and a selling option combination strategy, but no spot hedging strategy [12]. - **Apples**: The consumption market of apples is warming up. The option strategies include a selling option combination strategy, but no spot hedging strategy [12]. - **Jujubes**: The inventory of jujubes has decreased slightly. The option strategies include a wide - straddle selling strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: The low inventory of domestic sugar supports the price, but the sales volume is lower than expected. The option strategies include a selling option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Cotton**: The开机率 of spinning and weaving mills has changed, and the commercial inventory has decreased. The option strategies include a selling option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [14]. 3.5.4 Grains Options - **Corn and Starch**: The corn yield is expected to increase. The option strategies include a selling option combination strategy, but no spot hedging strategy [14].
农产品期权策略早报-20250918
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 02:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows a mixed trend, with oilseeds and oils, and some agricultural by - products in a weak and volatile state, while soft commodities like sugar and cotton also present different degrees of weak fluctuations [2]. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various agricultural product futures show different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the price of soybean No.1 (A2511) decreased by 0.49% to 3,895, with a trading volume of 12.17 million lots and an open interest of 22.65 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume - to - Open - Interest PCR - Different option varieties have different volume - to - open - interest PCR values and their changes. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.55 with a change of 0.13, and the open - interest PCR is 0.42 with a change of 0.01 [4]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - Each option variety has corresponding pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 3,950 and the support level is 3,900 [5]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties also varies. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 10.555%, and the weighted implied volatility is 13.17% with a change of - 0.34% [6]. 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations 3.3.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: The fundamentals of US soybeans have a neutral - to - negative impact. The implied volatility of soybean No.1 options remains at a relatively high level compared to historical averages. Directional strategies are not recommended, while a volatility strategy of selling a neutral call + put option combination is suggested, along with a spot long - hedging strategy of a long collar [7]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: For soybean meal, the daily提货 volume increased slightly, the basis decreased week - on - week, and the inventory increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year. A bear - spread strategy for put options and a volatility strategy of selling a bearish call + put option combination are recommended, along with a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The palm oil inventory in Malaysia reached a 20 - month high. A volatility strategy of selling a bullish call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended for palm oil [10]. - **Peanuts**: The price of peanuts showed a weak consolidation pattern. A bear - spread strategy for put options and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [11]. 3.3.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Pigs**: The supply pressure in September is large, and the market is in a weak consolidation state. A volatility strategy of selling a bearish call + put option combination and a covered call strategy for spot are recommended [11]. - **Eggs**: The inventory of laying hens is expected to increase. A bear - spread strategy for put options and a volatility strategy of selling a bearish call + put option combination are recommended [12]. - **Apples**: The consumption market of apples is gradually warming up. A volatility strategy of selling a bullish call + put option combination is recommended [12]. - **Jujubes**: The inventory of jujubes decreased slightly. A volatility strategy of selling a bearish strangle option combination and a covered call strategy for spot hedging are recommended [13]. 3.3.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: The low inventory of domestic sugar supports the price, but the sales volume in August was lower than expected. A volatility strategy of selling a bearish call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [13]. - **Cotton**: The开机率 of spinning and weaving factories and the commercial inventory of cotton have different changes. A volatility strategy of selling a bullish call + put option combination and a covered call strategy for spot are recommended [14]. 3.3.4 Cereal Options - **Corn and Starch**: The corn production is expected to increase. A volatility strategy of selling a bearish call + put option combination is recommended for corn [14].
农产品期权策略早报-20250819
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows different trends: oilseeds and oils are in a strong - side oscillation, oils and by - products maintain an oscillatory trend, soft commodities like sugar have a slight oscillation, cotton's bullish rise has declined, and grains such as corn and starch are in a weak and narrow - range consolidation [2]. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various agricultural product futures are presented, including soybeans, soybean meal, palm oil, etc. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2511) is 4,056 with no change, and its trading volume is 8.83 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different agricultural product options are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 option is 0.32, with a change of - 0.14 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different agricultural product options are given, which are determined by the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4500, and the support level is 4100 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of different agricultural product options are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 11.985%, and the weighted implied volatility is 14.43% with a change of - 1.72% [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: The fundamentals of soybeans are affected by factors such as USDA's adjustment of planting area and yield, and Trump's call for China to buy soybeans. The option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The fundamentals of soybean meal are related to the monthly purchase volume. The option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The fundamentals of oils are affected by USDA's reports and India's inventory replenishment. The option strategies include constructing a bullish call spread strategy, a long - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Peanuts**: The fundamentals of peanuts are related to the spot price, import volume, and oil mill operation rate. The option strategies include constructing a bearish put spread strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.2 By - product Options - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is relatively loose, and the demand is stimulated by low prices. The option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [11]. - **Eggs**: The inventory of laying hens is expected to increase. The option strategies include constructing a bearish put spread strategy and a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Apples**: The cold - storage inventory of apples is at a low level. The option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Red Dates**: The inventory of red dates is decreasing, and the market is improving. The option strategies include constructing a bullish call spread strategy, a long - biased wide - straddle option combination strategy, and a covered call strategy for spot [13]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: The fundamentals of sugar are affected by Brazil's sugar production data. The option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Cotton**: The fundamentals of cotton are related to the operating rates of spinning and weaving mills and global production. The option strategies include constructing a long - biased call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [14]. 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn and Starch**: The fundamentals of corn are affected by USDA's planting area and yield adjustment. The option strategies include constructing a bearish put spread strategy and a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [14]. 3.6 Option Charts - Charts of various agricultural product options are provided, including price trend charts, volume and open interest charts, implied volatility charts, etc., to visually display the market conditions of different agricultural product options [15][34][53].