Core Insights - The company, Beike Holdings Limited, reported a significant decline in profits for Q3, with earnings dropping 36.1% to 747 million yuan despite a slight revenue increase of 2.1% to 23.1 billion yuan [4][2]. - The company has spent 675 million USD on share buybacks this year, totaling 2.3 billion USD since September 2022, representing about 11.5% of the total shares before the buyback [7][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Beike's revenue is projected to rise by 20.2% to 93.5 billion yuan, but profits are expected to fall by 31% to 4.078 billion yuan [2]. - For the first half of the year, revenue increased by 24% to 49.3 billion yuan, while profits decreased by 7% to 2.162 billion yuan [2]. - The Q3 performance showed a total transaction volume of existing homes reaching 505.6 billion yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year, but revenue from this segment fell by 3.6% to 6 billion yuan [4][5]. Market Challenges - The decline in profits is attributed to a challenging real estate market, affecting the company's primary revenue source from intermediary services [4][5]. - The company has implemented a new strategy called "one body and three wings," focusing on real estate brokerage as the core, with additional segments in renovation, leasing, and property development [5]. Strategic Initiatives - Beike's renovation business reported stable revenue of 4.3 billion yuan in Q3, but future growth is limited due to a decrease in new home transactions [6]. - The property development segment, managed by the brand "Beihome," utilizes a C2M model but faces high capital investment and long timelines for returns, especially in a weak real estate market [6]. Stock Performance and Outlook - Despite a strong performance in the Hong Kong stock market, Beike's stock has dropped 37% from its peak over the past year, trading between 30 to 50 HKD [6][7]. - Analysts have lowered their earnings forecasts for Beike for 2025 to 2027 by 24%, 29%, and 27%, respectively, and downgraded the rating from "buy" to "hold" [7]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio stands at 34 times, indicating that the stock is not cheap, and significant price breakthroughs are unlikely without a recovery in the real estate market [8].

Group 1 - The core idea of the news is that real estate companies and platforms are actively collaborating to boost market activity ahead of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with Beike Shenzhen offering over 500 new discounted properties for buyers [1] - Beike Shenzhen is hosting the "Vibrant Shenzhen, Livable Future" 2025 New House Festival, providing direct discounts from developers and exclusive benefits through the Beike platform, including cash vouchers ranging from 500 to 3000 yuan [1] - The "Beike Sunshine Operation Service Commitment" has been signed with partner developers, ensuring transparent and ethical sales practices, which aims to enhance the purchasing experience for buyers [1] Group 2 - The new policy "905 New Policy" has led to a significant increase in new home transactions, with a 35% rise in new home subscriptions in the 23 days following the policy implementation compared to the previous 23 days, and a 75% increase compared to the same period in August [1] - Beike Shenzhen's research institute attributes the growth in transaction volume to the dual attraction of policy benefits and quality housing [1] - Beike has also launched the "Warm New Station & Anchor Home" initiative in Shenzhen, providing services for new employment groups, including daily care and community volunteer activities [2]