证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 债市跟随股市起舞 2025年8月23日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：刘洋 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F3063825 期货交易咨询号：Z0016580 国债期货一周行情复盘 本周国债期货主力合约周一跳空低开后大幅下跌，周二横向波动，周三大幅下跌，周四探底反弹，周五略有回落， 全周30年国债跌1.05%，10年国债跌0.52%，5年国债跌0.28%，2年国债跌0.03%。 数据来源：wind，格林大华 国债现券到期收益率曲线变动 8月22日收盘国债现券到期收益率曲线与8月15日相比表现整体平行上移。2年期国债到期收益率从8月15 日的1.40%上行3个BP至8月22日的1.439% ；5年期国债到期收益率从8月15日的1.59%上行4个BP至8月22日 的1.63% ；10年期国债到期收益率从8月15日的1.75%上行3个BP至8月22日的1.78% ；30年期国债到期收 益率从8月15日的2.05%上行3个BP至8月22日的2.08% 。 7月份，全国一般公共预算收入20273亿元，同比增长2. ...

Core Insights - The Shanghai real estate market saw a total of 4,711 new homes sold in June 2025, representing a month-on-month decrease of 0.98% compared to May [1] - In June, the Fengxian district recorded 100 new home registrations, with a total transaction area of 11,370 square meters and a transaction value of approximately 476.77 million yuan [1] Sales Performance - The top-selling properties in June included: - Xiangyu Jiangwan Yufu in Jinhui with 19 registrations, ranking first - China Railway Construction Xiyu in Xidu with 16 registrations, ranking second [5] - The detailed sales data for June includes: - Xiangyu Jiangwan Yufu: 19 units, 1,654 square meters, 59.78 million yuan - China Railway Construction Xiyu: 16 units, 1,648 square meters, 67.48 million yuan - Zhongjian Yujingyuan: 12 units, 1,459 square meters, 78.00 million yuan - Other notable properties include Shangjiangnan Jinghuimingting, Zhongjian Haiyuefu, and others with varying sales figures [6][7]

Core Insights - The first project to raise prices after the removal of housing price limits in Hangzhou, Jinxiugongguan, still has unsold new units available despite initial high demand [1][2][4] Group 1: Project Overview - Jinxiugongguan is located in the West Lake District, approximately 300 meters from the Metro Line 10 [2] - The project was the first to set its own prices after the price limit removal, with the initial launch in November 2022 offering 33 units at an average price of 79,405 yuan per square meter [2] - The second launch in December 2022 saw an increase in average price to 82,500 yuan per square meter, with a significant drop in registration [2][4] Group 2: Sales Performance - The third launch in March 2023 offered 61 units at an average price of 84,999 yuan per square meter, with a registration rate of 44.53% [4] - As of July 16, 2023, approximately 90% of the 158 units launched across three sales have been signed, but some units from the initial launch remain unsold [4][5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Industry experts suggest that the unsold inventory reflects the relatively high pricing strategy of the project, with more affordable options available in the market [7] - The demand for smaller units (139 square meters) was higher due to a total price range of 10 million to 12 million yuan, while larger units faced more competition [7][9] - Nearby second-hand properties, such as those in the Shenhua area, offer competitive pricing, making Jinxiugongguan less attractive for buyers with similar budgets [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the mixed performance of various sectors in May, indicating a gradual recovery in certain areas while others continue to face challenges, particularly in real estate and industrial production. Group 1: Power Generation and Industrial Activity - The cumulative power generation from coal-fired power plants increased by 1.9% year-on-year as of May 22, marking the first positive reading of the year [1][7] - Industrial sector operating rates showed mixed results, with steel and coking industries underperforming compared to April, while the textile and apparel sectors improved significantly [8][9] - As of the fourth week of May, the operating rate of high furnaces increased by 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, while coking enterprises saw a 1.6 percentage point increase [8][9] Group 2: Construction and Infrastructure - The construction funding availability rate remained stable compared to the end of April, with a slight increase of 0.07 percentage points to 58.9% as of May 27 [10][11] - The cement shipment rate recorded 40.5%, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point decline year-on-year [10][11] - The oil asphalt operating rate decreased to 27.7% by May 28, down from 34.4% and 30.8% in the previous weeks [10][11] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Sales - The average daily subway ridership in ten major cities increased by 0.8% year-on-year to 61.51 million, although it showed a decline from the previous month [12] - Real estate sales in May showed a reduced decline compared to April, with a 4.1% year-on-year drop in the average daily transaction area across 30 major cities [14][15] - Retail sales of passenger cars maintained a relatively strong state, with a year-on-year increase of 16% from May 1 to 25 [15] Group 4: Appliance Sales and Export Activity - Retail sales of major home appliances remained high, with air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines showing significant year-on-year growth rates of 66.1%, 75.2%, and 85.2% respectively during the week of May 19-25 [16][17] - Container throughput showed a slight slowdown, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0% from May 5 to 25, down from 7.3% in April [18] - The number of container ships sent to the U.S. saw a year-on-year decline of 17.2% as of May 31, indicating a potential shift in export dynamics [18][19]