Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Precious Metals Derivatives Daily Report [2] - Date: September 2, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Commodity Research Institute, Galaxy Futures [2] - Researchers: Che Hongyun, Wang Luchen [2] Group 2: Market Review - Precious Metals Market: London Gold reached a new high of $3,508.69 but fell back to around $3,479; London Silver touched $40.848 and then dropped to around $40.4. SHFE Gold closed up 1.21% at 804.32 yuan/gram, and SHFE Silver closed up 2.33% at 9,824 yuan/kg [3] - Dollar Index: Opened lower and closed higher, ending a 5 - day decline and standing back at around 98.25 [3] - 10 - Year US Treasury Yield: Gapped up and traded around 4.277% [4] - RMB Exchange Rate: Depreciated against the US dollar, falling to around 7.1478 [5] Group 3: Important Information - Trump Administration: Trump may declare a national housing emergency this autumn, and Beisente is confident that the Supreme Court will support Trump's tariff policy. Milan may take office before the September Fed meeting [6] - Fed Watch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September is 10.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 89.6%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 4.9%, a 25 - basis - point cumulative cut is 47.3%, and a 50 - basis - point cumulative cut is 47.9% [6] Group 4: Logical Analysis - Market Concerns: The Cook incident has intensified market concerns. The US July PCE rebounded in line with expectations, and Fed officials' dovish remarks strengthened the market's expectation of a September rate cut [7] - Economic Outlook: The US may face a "stagflation - like" situation due to a cooling labor market and potential tariff impacts, leading to a strong rise in precious metals and an expected high - level and strong oscillation in the future [9] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Hold existing long positions based on the 5 - day moving average and pay attention to the resistance at the $3,500 level of London Gold [10] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [11] - Options: Wait and see [12] Group 6: Data Reference - Dollar Index and Precious Metals: Presented the historical trends of the dollar index against London Gold and London Silver [14][15] - Real Yield and Precious Metals: Showed the relationship between real yields and London Gold and London Silver [16][17][22] - Domestic and Foreign Futures: Displayed the trends of domestic and foreign gold and silver futures [18][19][21] - Futures and Spot: Illustrated the price differences between futures and spot gold and silver [24][25] - Domestic and Foreign Price Differences: Presented the price differences between domestic and foreign gold and silver [28][29][31] - Gold - Silver Ratio: Showed the gold - silver ratios on the SHFE and Comex [38][39] - ETF Holdings: Presented the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF [40][41][42] - Futures Positions: Displayed the positions of gold and silver futures [43][44] - Futures Inventories: Showed the inventories of gold and silver futures [48][45] - Trading Volume: Presented the trading volumes of SHFE Gold and SHFE Silver [46][47] - TD Data: Included the deferred fees and delivery volumes of gold and silver TD [50][51][56] - Treasury Yields and Inflation: Showed the relationships among nominal interest rates, inflation expectations, and real interest rates, as well as US Treasury yields [54]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Derivatives Daily Report [2] - Date: August 21, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Commodity Research Institute [1][24][33][44][52] - Researchers: Che Hongyun, Wang Luchen CFA [2] Group 2: Market Review - Precious Metals Market: London gold slightly retraced last night's gains, trading around $3339; London silver had narrow fluctuations, trading around $37.8. Driven by the overseas market, the main Shanghai gold futures contract rose 0.3% to 775.12 yuan/gram, and the main Shanghai silver futures contract rose 0.63% to 9162 yuan/kg [3] - Dollar Index: The dollar index moved sideways, trading around 98.26 [4] - US Treasury Yield: The 10-year US Treasury yield edged higher, trading around 4.3% [5] - RMB Exchange Rate: The RMB continued its strong trend against the US dollar, trading around 7.177 [6] Group 3: Important Information - Trump Administration Move: Trump's camp officials called for an investigation into Fed Governor Cook over mortgage transactions, and Trump demanded Cook's resignation, while Cook refused [7] - Fed July Meeting Minutes: Many participants said the current interest rate is not far from the neutral level, and most officials thought it appropriate to keep rates unchanged. "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos said it reinforced existing information [7] - Fed Watch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September is 18.1%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point cut is 81.9%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 8%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 46.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 45.5% [7] - Geopolitical Conflict: Israel decided not to respond to Hamas' ceasefire proposal for the time being [8] Group 4: Logical Analysis - Market Sentiment: The market is waiting for Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday to verify the bet on a September rate cut. Due to the sharp rebound in US PPI and resilient retail data, there are concerns that Powell may take a hawkish stance, so trading sentiment is cautious [10] - Impact on Precious Metals: Trump's demand for Cook's resignation has interfered with the Fed's independence, weakening the dollar and giving precious metals a chance to rebound. In the future, the risk of the US entering "stagflation" due to tariffs will support precious metals, and they are expected to remain range-bound at high levels [10] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips [11] - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [12] - Options: Temporarily stay on the sidelines [13] Group 6: Data Reference - Dollar Index and Precious Metals: Charts show the relationship between the dollar index and London gold/silver [15][17] - Real Yield and Precious Metals: Charts show the relationship between real yields and London gold/silver [21][23] - Domestic and Overseas Futures: Charts show the relationship between domestic and overseas gold/silver futures [22] - Futures and Spot: Charts show the relationship between futures and spot prices of gold/silver [25] - Domestic and Overseas Price Differences: Charts show the price differences between domestic and overseas gold/silver [32] - Gold-Silver Ratio: Charts show the gold-silver ratio on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Comex [38][40] - ETF Holdings: Charts show the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF [42] - Futures Open Interest: Charts show the open interest of gold/silver futures [45][46] - Futures Inventory: Charts show the inventory of Shanghai gold/silver futures [47][48] - Trading Volume: Charts show the trading volume of Shanghai gold/silver futures [50][51] - TD Data: Charts show the deferred fees and delivery volumes of gold/silver TD [53][54][58] - Treasury Yields and Break-Even Inflation: Charts show the relationship between Treasury yields and break-even inflation rates [55]

大宗商品研究所 贵金属研发报告 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 8 月 20 日 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1.贵金属市场：今天白天，贵金属走势分化，伦敦金小幅回补前日跌幅，当前 交投于 3323 美元附近，伦敦银再度下跌，当前交投于 37.1 美元附近。受外盘驱 动，沪金主力合约收跌 0.35%，报 772.68 元/克，沪银主力合约收跌 1.86%，报 9042 元/千克。 2.美元指数：美元指数窄幅波动，当前交投于 98.3 附近。 3.美债收益率：10 年美债收益率高位盘整，当前交投于 4.32%附近。 4.人民币汇率：人民币兑美元汇率小幅走强，当前交投于 7.179 附近。 【重要资讯】 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co 1.地缘冲突：①俄乌：知情人士：白宫考虑在匈牙利举办俄乌领导人峰会。② 美国与欧洲将立即着手为乌克兰提供安全保障，全面 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that precious metals rebounded from a low level during the day, fulfilling the expectation that there is no need to be overly pessimistic about precious metals. The report suggests that despite short - term fluctuations in risk - aversion sentiment affecting the market, due to the substantial implementation of US reciprocal tariffs, it is expected that US inflation will rebound and the economy will slow down. Additionally, the approaching passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill may exacerbate US debt and deficit issues in the future. Therefore, the report recommends a strategy of buying on dips for precious metals. The report also highlights the importance of closely monitoring a series of US employment data, including non - farm payrolls, this week, as a continued cooling of the labor market may support the precious metal market [9]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Precious metals market: London gold is trading around $3340, and London silver is around $35.3. Driven by the overseas market, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 1.47% to 776.1 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 1.11% to 8810 yuan/kg [3]. - Dollar index: It dropped again and is trading around 96.6 [4]. - US Treasury yields: The 10 - year US Treasury yield declined slightly and is around 4.25% [5]. - RMB exchange rate: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate is oscillating at a high level, trading around 7.16 [6]. Important Information - Trump administration's actions: Canada cancelled the digital service tax, and the White House will restart negotiations with Canada; EU officials will visit the US for trade talks on July 1st, and it is reported that the EU will accept Trump's general tariffs but seek exemptions for key industries; US Treasury Secretary believes there will be a wave of trade agreements signed in the last week before July 9th; Trump criticized the Fed again, and the Treasury Secretary hinted that Trump is considering appointing Powell's successor next year [7]. - US macro: The US Chicago PMI in June was 40.4, lower than the expected 43 and the lowest since January [7]. - Fed watch: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 79.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 20.2%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 5.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 75.9%. The market expects the Fed to cut rates three times this year [7]. Logical Analysis The precious metals rebounded from a low level, validating the view that there is no need for excessive pessimism. The report maintains that US inflation rebound and economic slowdown are the base - case scenarios, and the "Big and Beautiful" bill may deepen US debt and deficit problems. The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips for precious metals and suggests focusing on US employment data this week [9]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider holding long positions against the 5 - day moving average [10]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [11]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that precious metals will continue to trade in a high - level range in the short term. Although the easing of geopolitical factors has put pressure on gold due to the clearing of risk premiums, the market's focus may shift back to the US macro - fundamentals and the Fed's monetary policy. The risks caused by tariff shocks remain, and the Fed is still in an interest - rate cut cycle, which provides strong support for precious metals [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Precious metals market: Due to the confirmed cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the risk premium in the market was cleared. London gold fell slightly to around $3327, and London silver fluctuated within a narrow range at around $36.14. Driven by external markets, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 1.263% at 771.86 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.09% at 8739 yuan/kilogram. Attention is drawn to Fed Chairman Powell's semi - annual monetary policy report testimony [3]. - Dollar index: The dollar index continued to decline and was trading around 98.13 [4]. - US Treasury yields: The 10 - year US Treasury yield also declined and was trading around 4.33% [5]. - RMB exchange rate: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate rose and was trading around 7.1778 [6]. Important Information - Geopolitical conflicts: Iran launched a retaliatory missile strike on a US air base in Qatar. Trump thanked Iran for the advance notice and called for peace. Iranian officials said they would continue to retaliate against US attacks and reiterated that if there were to be negotiations, the US must stop its attacks on Iran. Trump announced a full cease - fire between Israel and Iran [7]. - US macro data: The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in June was 52 (expected 51, previous value 52), and the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in June was 53.1 (expected 52.9, previous value 53.7) [7]. - Fed views: Fed official Bowman said that if inflation pressures are under control, she would support an early rate cut at the next meeting to bring the policy rate closer to a neutral level and maintain a healthy labor market. Fed's Goolsbee emphasized the importance of paying attention to the moderate performance of economic data during the current transition period and that if the impact of trade policies fades, the Fed should continue to cut rates [7]. - Fed watch: The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 79.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut has slightly increased to 20.7%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 16.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 67.1%. The market currently bets that the Fed will cut rates once in September and once in December this year [8][9]. Logical Analysis Geopolitically, the temporary cease - fire between Israel and Iran has led to a decline in risk - aversion sentiment. In terms of the US macro - economy, although the PMI data showed resilience, Fed officials' hints of a possible rate cut in July caused the US dollar and Treasury yields to decline rapidly, which supported precious metals. Overall, despite the pressure on gold from the clearing of risk premiums due to geopolitical easing, the market's focus may shift back to the US macro - fundamentals and the Fed's monetary policy, and the risks caused by tariff shocks and the Fed's rate - cut cycle support precious metals [10]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips [11]. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [12]. - Options: Stay on the sidelines [13]. Data Reference - The report provides multiple sets of data charts, including the relationship between the US dollar index and precious metals, real yields and precious metals, domestic and foreign futures trends, futures - spot trends, domestic - foreign price differences, gold - silver ratios, ETF holdings, futures open interest, trading volumes, TD data, and the relationship between Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates [15][16][17].