2025Q4 运动鞋服终端销售存在一定的压力，但各品牌公司库存情况仍 然稳健。1）从流水层面来看，2025Q4 受到国内消费环境波动、气温偏暖 以及 2026 年春节较晚导致的年货消费滞后影响，2025Q4 国内部分运动 鞋服品牌终端销售存在一定压力，安踏集团旗下安踏品牌 Q4 流水同比下 降低单位数，Fila 品牌以及其他品牌分部表现仍较好，流水分别增长中单 位数/35%~40%；李宁流水同比下降低单位数；特步品牌流水同比持平； 361 度表现相对强劲，线下成人装/童装流水分别增长 10%，电商也实现 了双位数增长。 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 01 25 年 月 日 纺织服饰 周专题：2025Q4 运动鞋服公司经营总结 【本周专题】 服饰制造 2026 年订单有望环比改善，推荐进入产能释放周期的优质个 2）从库存层面来看，经过四季度的积极去化与双十一、双十二等大促带 动，我们判断目前各个运动品牌的库销比水平均已回落至 4-5 或略高于 5 的区间，整体处于健康可控水平。 股。目前行业库存基本健康，期待下游稳健补库带来的上游订单增长， 推荐估值具备性价比、核心客户趋势向好 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning [6] Core Insights - The signing of the Chinese Olympic Committee in the first half of 2025 marks the beginning of a new product and marketing cycle for Li Ning, with expectations for improved performance and stock price recovery in the medium to long term [1][14] - The company has faced pressure on its fundamentals due to fluctuations in the consumer environment, with a reported revenue of 14.8 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.7 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year change of +3.3% and -11% respectively [1][15] - The sportswear market is expected to grow, with the Chinese sports apparel market projected to reach 260.2 billion yuan by 2024, and a CAGR of 9% from 2025 to 2029 [2] Company Overview - Li Ning's short-term operations are experiencing fluctuations, but the fundamentals are expected to improve. The company has seen a decline in revenue and net profit since 2022, with a forecasted revenue of 28.7 billion yuan and a net profit of 3 billion yuan for 2024 [15] - The revenue structure is primarily wholesale, with 46% from wholesale, 23% from direct sales, and 29% from e-commerce as of the first half of 2025 [15] Industry Trends - The demand for sports footwear and apparel among residents is resilient, with increasing participation in sports leading to a diversified and professionalized market [2] - The report highlights the importance of the Olympic cycle in enhancing brand strength and increasing sponsorship in niche categories [2] Competitive Positioning - Li Ning is focusing on product optimization and enhancing brand strength during the Olympic cycle, with a significant increase in sponsorship for running and basketball categories [3] - The company is also expanding its outdoor product offerings and enhancing the diversity of its store inventory to drive revenue growth [3] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 2.742 billion yuan, 2.901 billion yuan, and 3.302 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of -9%, +5.8%, and +13.8% [4] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 17 times for 2026, indicating potential for valuation improvement as the company's marketing strategies and product optimizations take effect [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning Company [6] Core Views - The signing of the Chinese Olympic Committee in the first half of 2025 marks the beginning of a new product and marketing cycle for Li Ning, with potential for brand strength recovery and performance improvement [1][14] - Despite short-term pressures from fluctuating consumer environments, the company is positioned for a potential upward trend in stock price if revenue or profit improves in the medium to long term [1][4] Company Overview - Li Ning's revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 are projected at 14.8 billion and 1.7 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of +3.3% and -11% [1][15] - The company has faced challenges since 2022, with a decline in brand revenue in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 [1][15] - The current channel structure is primarily wholesale, with revenue contributions of 46% from wholesale, 23% from direct sales, and 29% from e-commerce as of the first half of 2025 [15] Industry Trends - The demand for sports footwear and apparel among residents is resilient, with a projected market size of 260.2 billion yuan by 2024 and a CAGR of 9% from 2025 to 2029 [2] - The diversification and specialization of sports participation are becoming more pronounced, with increased demand for professional products driven by rising participation in running and social sports [2] Competitive Strength - The Olympic cycle is expected to enhance Li Ning's brand power and strengthen sponsorship in niche categories [2][3] - The company is focusing on professional running shoes and outdoor products, which are anticipated to contribute to revenue growth [3][4] Product Insights - In the first half of 2025, the revenue breakdown by category is as follows: running (34%), basketball (17%), training (16%), and sports lifestyle (29%), with running and training categories showing a growth of 15% each [3][15] - Li Ning is emphasizing the development of running shoes and enhancing the technological attributes of its training series [3] Channel Insights - As of the first half of 2025, Li Ning operates 4,821 franchise stores and 1,278 direct stores, with plans to open new store types focusing on Olympic and outdoor series products [3] - E-commerce revenue grew by 7% year-on-year to 4.3 billion yuan, accounting for 29% of total revenue, indicating a stable growth strategy in this channel [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The projected net profits for Li Ning from 2025 to 2027 are 2.742 billion, 2.901 billion, and 3.302 billion yuan, with growth rates of -9%, +5.8%, and +13.8%, respectively [4][5] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 17 times for 2026, suggesting potential for valuation improvement as the company's Olympic marketing strategy and product optimization continue [4]

中金指，考虑到公司2025年良好的费用控制以及2026年持续的投入，上调2025/2026年每股盈利预测 14%、3%至1.05、1.1元，并引入2027年每股盈利预测1.19元，上调目标价3%至24.4港元，维持"跑赢行 业"评级。 中金发表报告指，李宁管理层表示，在羽毛球等新品类的帮助下，2025年收入有望获得小幅增长，同时 由于费用控制良好等因素，净利润率有望落在高单位数指引上沿。2026年是重要赛事较密集的一年，公 司将围绕奥运和运动科技主线叠代新产品和新店型，亦将积极开展配套营销活动。该行看好奥运周期下 公司品牌力的提升，以及新货盘有望为公司提供新的增长来源。 ...

Core Insights - The financial reports for the first half of 2025 from China's four major sportswear companies, Anta, Li Ning, Xtep, and 361 Degrees, reveal significant disparities in performance, with Anta leading in revenue and Xtep showing the fastest profit growth [1][2]. Revenue Performance - Anta achieved a record revenue of 38.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, surpassing the combined revenue of Li Ning, Xtep, and 361 Degrees [2][3]. - Li Ning's revenue grew by 3.3% to 14.82 billion yuan, while Xtep reported a revenue of 6.84 billion yuan, up 7.1%. 361 Degrees saw an 11% increase in revenue to 5.705 billion yuan [2][3]. Profitability Analysis - Anta's net profit reached 7.031 billion yuan, nearly double that of the other three companies combined [3]. - Xtep's net profit grew by 21.5% to 910 million yuan, marking the highest growth rate among the four companies. 361 Degrees' net profit increased by 8.6% to 860 million yuan, while Li Ning's net profit fell by 11% to 1.737 billion yuan [3]. Strategic Focus and Business Lines - Anta continues to implement a "single focus, multi-brand, global" strategy, with its core brand revenue increasing by 5.4% to 16.95 billion yuan and FILA's revenue rising by 8.6% to 14.18 billion yuan [4][5]. - Li Ning is investing heavily in top-tier professional sports resources and increasing R&D spending by 8.7%, focusing on running, basketball, and training categories, which account for 67% of retail sales [5]. - Xtep is concentrating on the running segment, with its high-end running shoe brand Saucony achieving a 32.5% revenue increase to 785 million yuan, representing 11.5% of total revenue [5][6]. - 361 Degrees is pursuing a strategy of "professionalization, youthfulness, and internationalization," with its children's business and e-commerce showing rapid growth [6]. Operational Challenges - Anta's average inventory turnover days increased from 114 to 136 days, indicating rising inventory pressure. The overall gross margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 63.4% due to a higher contribution from lower-margin e-commerce and footwear products [8]. - Li Ning reported a net cash inflow of 2.41 billion yuan, with a cash cycle of 31 days, but faced challenges from reduced offline foot traffic impacting sales [9]. - Xtep's main brand revenue growth slowed to 4.5%, below the previous year's 6.6%, with Saucony not yet sufficiently supporting its "second growth curve" despite its high growth rate [10].

Core Viewpoint - The financial reports of China's four major sportswear companies—Anta, Li Ning, Xtep, and 361 Degrees—show significant disparities in performance, with Anta leading in revenue growth and Xtep achieving the fastest net profit growth [2][4][5]. Revenue Performance - Anta's revenue reached 38.54 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, marking a 14.3% year-on-year increase, setting a new historical high [4][6]. - Li Ning's revenue was 14.82 billion RMB, up 3.3% year-on-year, while Xtep reported 6.84 billion RMB, a 7.1% increase [4][6]. - 361 Degrees saw its revenue grow by 11% to 5.705 billion RMB [4][6]. Profitability Analysis - Anta's net profit was 7.031 billion RMB, nearly double that of the other three companies combined [5][6]. - Xtep's net profit grew by 21.5% to 910 million RMB, the highest growth rate among the four [5][6]. - 361 Degrees' net profit increased by 8.6% to 860 million RMB, while Li Ning's net profit fell by 11% to 1.737 billion RMB [5][6]. Strategic Focus and Business Lines - Anta's strategy emphasizes "single focus, multi-brand, and globalization," with its core brand revenue growing by 5.4% to 16.95 billion RMB [8][9]. - Li Ning is investing in top-tier professional sports resources and increasing R&D spending by 8.7%, focusing on running, basketball, and cross-training categories [8][9]. - Xtep is concentrating on the running segment, with its high-end running shoe brand Saucony seeing a revenue increase of 32.5% [10]. - 361 Degrees is pursuing "professionalization, youthfulness, and internationalization," with its children's business and e-commerce showing rapid growth [11]. Operational Challenges - Anta's average inventory turnover days increased from 114 to 136 days, indicating rising inventory pressure [13]. - Li Ning reported a stable cash flow but acknowledged a decrease in offline customer traffic, impacting sales [13]. - Xtep's main brand revenue growth slowed to 4.5%, below the previous year's 6.6%, indicating potential challenges in sustaining growth [15].