Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (00291) with a target price of HKD 34 [1] Core Insights - China Resources Beer achieved positive sales growth in April and May, consistent with the sales trend from January to May 2025, benefiting from favorable raw material factors that helped increase gross margin by over 1 percentage point [1] - The company is implementing "Three Precision" initiatives to further reduce operating costs [1] - The management anticipates pressure on the white liquor business revenue this year due to weak demand and high base effects, aiming to avoid losses and impairments [1] Sales Performance by Product - Heineken continues to perform strongly with sales growth exceeding 20% year-on-year - Super X's year-to-date sales have increased by approximately 10% year-on-year - Sales of Old Snow and Amstel have seen over 50% year-on-year growth - Snow Beer Pure Draft experienced a slight single-digit decline in sales year-on-year [1] Sales Performance by Region - The company highlighted strong sales momentum in Guangdong, particularly around the Shenzhen area - It is expected that East China and South China will become key drivers of sales growth in 2025 [1] Sales Performance by Channel - The management noted that demand in the ready-to-drink channel remains weak, although there was a slight improvement in some dining markets in East and South China in May - The company has gained some market share in the nightlife channel - The proportion of ready-to-drink channel sales remains stable, consistent with the end of 2024 levels, at approximately 38-39% [1] Capital Expenditure Plans - Due to strong Heineken sales, the company plans to expand Heineken production capacity in Fujian - In 2025, further investments are planned in maintenance, production line transformation, and the white liquor business - Future capital expenditures are expected to gradually decrease [2] Financial Assumptions - The report uses a discounted cash flow method with a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.3%, derived from a 3% risk-free rate and a 9.1% risk premium, and a terminal growth rate of 3% [2]

Group 1: China Resources Beer (00291) - The company achieved positive sales growth in April and May, aligning with the sales trend from January to May 2025 [1] - The management expects pressure on the liquor business revenue due to weak demand and high base, aiming to avoid losses and impairments [1] - The company benefits from favorable raw material factors, leading to a gross margin increase of over 1 percentage point, while operational costs are reduced through "Three Precision" initiatives [1] - Heineken sales grew over 20% year-on-year, while Super X saw approximately 10% growth; Snow Beer Pure Life experienced a slight decline [1] - Sales momentum is strong in Guangdong, particularly around Shenzhen, with expectations for East and South China to drive growth in 2025 [1] - The ready-to-drink channel remains weak, but there was slight improvement in some dining markets in May [1] Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Financial Projections - The company plans to expand Heineken production capacity in Fujian and continue investments in maintenance, production line transformation, and liquor business in 2025 [2] - Future capital expenditures are expected to gradually decrease [2] - Key assumptions for financial projections include a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.3% and a terminal growth rate of 3% [2] Group 3: Kingsoft Software (03888) - The upcoming game "Mecha BREAK" is expected to be a key driver for Kingsoft's stock price [3] - The game is highly anticipated, ranking 5th on Steam's wishlist, with 3.5 million pre-registrations and a peak of over 300,000 concurrent players during closed testing [4] - Potential outcomes for the game's performance include revenue predictions of 500 million RMB if it ranks 10-20 on Steam, and over 300 million RMB if it enters the top ten [4] Group 4: FiberHome Technologies (601869) - Goldman Sachs reviewed FiberHome's earnings forecast following China Mobile's 2025-26 tender results, which were below expectations [6] - FiberHome's winning share in the tender decreased to 13.6%, down from 19-20% in previous tenders, and the average procurement price dropped by 26% [7] - The tender results indicate a cautious outlook for the telecom industry's fiber optic cable demand [7] Group 5: Q Technology (01478) - Q Technology reported a 1.9% month-on-month increase in smartphone camera module shipments for May 2025, but a year-on-year decline of 17.5% [8] - The shipment of camera modules with 32 million pixels and above saw a year-on-year decline of 19.0% [8] - Fingerprint recognition module shipments surged by 45.0% year-on-year, benefiting from market share gains and increased production capacity [8]