Core Viewpoint - Walmart is a well-managed company with a strong business outlook, but its current valuation is difficult to justify due to specific catalysts that may negatively impact its revenue and profits, such as reductions in SNAP benefits and the use of GLP-1 medications [1][19]. Group 1: SNAP Benefits Impact - Walmart is the largest beneficiary of SNAP benefits, accounting for approximately 25% of total SNAP spending, which affects around 42 million Americans annually [1]. - By 2034, SNAP benefits are projected to decrease by $183 billion, leading to an estimated loss of over $45 billion for Walmart, despite its annual revenue of nearly $700 billion [5]. - Changes in consumer behavior due to SNAP cuts may pressure Walmart's profitability, as customers may opt for cheaper, lower-margin food options [5]. Group 2: GLP-1 Medications Influence - The use of GLP-1 medications is expected to reduce calorie intake significantly, with women reducing intake by 864 to 987 calories and men by 722 to 798 calories daily [6]. - This reduction in food consumption could lead to decreased grocery spending and make dining out more appealing, potentially impacting Walmart's sales [6][8]. - However, some consumers may not change their shopping habits significantly, as food waste remains high in the U.S. [8]. Group 3: Valuation Concerns - Walmart's historical GAAP P/E ratio is as high as 42, significantly above competitors like Target (11.43) and Kroger (19.20) [10]. - Walmart's revenue growth is stagnating at 5.22%, with a low profit margin of 2.75%, raising concerns about its profitability compared to peers [11]. - Discounted cash flow analysis suggests Walmart's valuation is excessive, requiring a nearly 27% growth rate in free cash flow to justify its current price [13]. Group 4: Competitive Position and Dividend - Walmart's strong position in the retail sector makes it an attractive defensive stock, but its valuation around $100 is considered too high [15]. - The company has a solid dividend growth history, but its forward yield of only 0.96% does not compensate for valuation issues [17]. - Walmart's online business is growing, with a 20% increase in order volume, indicating potential for future profitability [18].

资本支出（Capex）：鉴于喜力销售强劲，公司计划在福建扩充喜力产能。2025年还计划继续在维护、生 产线转型以及白酒业务方面进行投资。预计未来资本支出将逐步减少。基准情形采用现金流折现法，假设加权 平均资本成本（WACC）为11.3%（由3%无风险利率、9.1%风险溢价得出），终端增长率为3%。 风险提示：上行风险：喜力市场份额增长快于预期；雪花产品成功高端化；原材料价格下降。 下行风险：行业需求持续疲软；家庭消费渠道市场竞争加剧；原材料价格上涨。 华润啤酒(00291):维持"买入"评级,目标价34港元 摩根士丹利发布称，华润啤酒（00291）在4-5月实现销量正增长，与2025年1-5月的销售趋势一致，公司 仍受益于原材料方面的有利因素，助力毛利率提升超1个百分点，同时通过"三精"举措进一步降低运营成 本，维持"买入"评级，目标价34港元。管理层预计，由于需求疲软且基数较高，今年白酒业务收入仍将面临 压力，公司会努力避免亏损和减值。 润啤业绩如下：按产品（年初至今）：1）喜力持续强劲，销量同比增长超20%；2）超级X年初至今销量同 比增长约10%；3）老雪和阿姆斯特尔销量同比增长超50%；4）雪花纯生销 ...

提到段永平，很多人都用传奇商业大佬来形容他。 被誉为"中国版巴菲特"的段永平，28岁开始创业、40岁便宣布退休的传奇大佬，影响了整整一代 投资者和企业家。小霸王、步步高、小天才、OPPO、vivo、拼多多、极兔速递……这些在各自行 业内拥有巨大影响力的企业，无一不曾受到段永平理念的影响。 他是首位拍下巴菲特午餐的华人，也是做生意敢为天下后的高人。段永平这名字在投资圈里，是 跟"价值投资"这四个字焊一块的。 近日，获得段永平先生的首肯， 《大道》问世 ，作为国内首部体系化梳理段永平商业投资思想的 读本，将大量碎片式的问答依据内生逻辑结构化、体系化，帮助我们全面更好地把握段永平的思 想。 ▼点击图片，即可购买▼ 《大道》的内容选编自段永平在网易博客和雪球网上发表的言论，涵盖个人投资心得、企业管理 经验，以及对子女教育和社会公益的看法， 文本来源选取的时间为2006年到2025年初。 这本书上市后，也获得了众多投资圈大佬们的一致推荐。下文为 今日资本创始人徐新 阅读《大 道》后的读后感： 芒格书院的施宏俊老师邀我给《大道：段永平投资问答录》写个读后感，我一口气读完，觉得就 是像跟老朋友聊天一样，很开心！ 他证实了我 ...