研报掘金｜华泰证券：维持老铺黄金"买入"评级 继续看好其竞争优势及高成长势头 大行评级｜美银： 下调老铺黄金目标价至958港元 市场关注盈利增长可持续性 相关事件 摩根大通研究报告指出，老铺黄金(6181.HK)2025年上半年稳健的精品店扩张(包括5家新精品店及1家精 品店翻新)尚未在上半年业绩中体现，将于下半年呈现贡献。该行认为，新开精品店在开业促销期间表 现强劲，拥有理想的客户群、强劲的客流量及销售额。因此，摩通预期这种势头将于2025年下半年延 续，受老铺品牌价值、产品创新及市场对「国牌」的强烈价值主张推动。摩通又对老铺在整体消费不确 定性中的增长可视性保持信心，基于现金流折现法(DCF)，将老铺2025年12月目标价定为1249港元，分 别对应预测今明两年市盈率41倍及30倍。重申增持评级。未来催化剂包括新店开张及潜在纳入MSCI中 国指数。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to benefit from government subsidy policies, leading to accelerated revenue growth in Q2 2025, despite potential short-term pressure on net profit due to increased employee costs [1][2]. Revenue Growth - Q2 2025 revenue growth is anticipated to accelerate year-on-year, with retail sales of home appliances in April and May showing significant increases of 39% and 53% respectively, compared to a 19% growth in Q1 2025 [1]. - JD Logistics is projected to be a beneficiary of this increased consumer demand, with revenue growth expected to exceed Q1 2025 levels [1]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The expansion of the workforce to support new business initiatives, such as instant retail and food delivery, is likely to increase labor costs and pressure gross margins [2]. - Gross margin for JD Logistics is forecasted to decline from 11.9% in Q2 2024 to 10.9% in Q2 2025, while non-IFRS net profit margin is expected to decrease to 5.0% from 5.6% in Q2 2024 [2]. Minority Interest and Earnings Impact - Following the full acquisition of Kuayue Express in Q2 2025, minority interest is expected to significantly decrease, potentially eliminating it by Q3 2025 [2]. - This elimination of minority interest is projected to contribute approximately a 15% increase to JD Logistics' net profit attributable to shareholders for the full year 2025 [2]. Investment Rating and Valuation - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 23.28, supported by the expectation of achieving annual performance targets [2]. - The current trading valuation at 10.6 times the expected P/E for 2025 is considered attractive compared to domestic peers, reinforcing the "Buy" recommendation [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (00291) with a target price of HKD 34 [1] Core Insights - China Resources Beer achieved positive sales growth in April and May, consistent with the sales trend from January to May 2025, benefiting from favorable raw material factors that helped increase gross margin by over 1 percentage point [1] - The company is implementing "Three Precision" initiatives to further reduce operating costs [1] - The management anticipates pressure on the white liquor business revenue this year due to weak demand and high base effects, aiming to avoid losses and impairments [1] Sales Performance by Product - Heineken continues to perform strongly with sales growth exceeding 20% year-on-year - Super X's year-to-date sales have increased by approximately 10% year-on-year - Sales of Old Snow and Amstel have seen over 50% year-on-year growth - Snow Beer Pure Draft experienced a slight single-digit decline in sales year-on-year [1] Sales Performance by Region - The company highlighted strong sales momentum in Guangdong, particularly around the Shenzhen area - It is expected that East China and South China will become key drivers of sales growth in 2025 [1] Sales Performance by Channel - The management noted that demand in the ready-to-drink channel remains weak, although there was a slight improvement in some dining markets in East and South China in May - The company has gained some market share in the nightlife channel - The proportion of ready-to-drink channel sales remains stable, consistent with the end of 2024 levels, at approximately 38-39% [1] Capital Expenditure Plans - Due to strong Heineken sales, the company plans to expand Heineken production capacity in Fujian - In 2025, further investments are planned in maintenance, production line transformation, and the white liquor business - Future capital expenditures are expected to gradually decrease [2] Financial Assumptions - The report uses a discounted cash flow method with a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.3%, derived from a 3% risk-free rate and a 9.1% risk premium, and a terminal growth rate of 3% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that China Resources Beer (00291) achieved positive sales growth in April and May, consistent with the sales trend from January to May 2025, benefiting from favorable raw material factors that helped increase gross margin by over 1 percentage point. The company is focused on cost reduction through its "Three Precision" initiatives and maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 34. Management anticipates pressure on liquor business revenue this year due to weak demand and high base effects, aiming to avoid losses and impairments [1][2]. Summary by Category Sales Performance - Heineken continues to show strong performance with sales growth exceeding 20% year-on-year - Super X's year-to-date sales have increased by approximately 10% - Sales of Old Snow and Amstel have surged by over 50% - Snowflake Pure Life sales have experienced a slight decline in single digits [2] Regional Insights - The company highlights strong sales momentum in Guangdong, particularly around Shenzhen - It is expected that East China and South China will be key drivers of sales growth in 2025 [2] Channel Performance - Management notes that demand in the ready-to-drink channel remains weak, although there was a slight improvement in some dining markets in East and South China in May - The company has gained some market share in the nightlife channel - The proportion of ready-to-drink channel sales remains stable, consistent with the end of 2024 levels, at approximately 38-39% [2] Capital Expenditure - Due to strong Heineken sales, the company plans to expand Heineken production capacity in Fujian - Continued investments are planned for maintenance, production line transformation, and liquor business in 2025 - Future capital expenditures are expected to gradually decrease, with a baseline scenario using discounted cash flow method assuming a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.3% and a terminal growth rate of 3% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the investment philosophy and business insights of Duan Yongping, often referred to as the "Chinese version of Buffett," emphasizing his impact on various influential companies and the release of the book "The Great Way," which systematically organizes his thoughts on business and investment [1][3]. Investment Philosophy - Duan Yongping's investment approach centers on value investing, which he defines as buying companies based on their future cash flow discounted to present value [3][4]. - Key considerations for investing in a company include its long-term profitability and how profits are distributed to shareholders [4]. Business Model and Company Culture - The importance of a strong business model and corporate culture is emphasized, with Duan stating that these factors are more critical than price in assessing a company's value [5][6]. - A good business model is characterized by consistent profits and cash flow, with high barriers to entry that deter competition [5]. Investment Criteria - Duan employs a "soul five questions" framework to evaluate companies, focusing on their business model, culture, and long-term prospects [7]. - He believes that understanding a limited number of companies deeply is more beneficial than spreading investments too thinly across many [8]. Successful Investments - Duan's notable investments include NetEase, Apple, and Moutai, with significant returns achieved through long-term holding [10][11][12]. - His success is attributed to a deep understanding of the companies he invests in, allowing him to hold onto them through market fluctuations [14]. Margin of Safety - The concept of margin of safety is crucial in Duan's investment strategy, emphasizing the need for a buffer when predicting future cash flows [15]. - He believes that the frequency of finding great investment opportunities is less important than the strength of the investment decisions made [16]. Valuation Insights - Duan stresses that learning to value companies takes time and that a solid understanding of a company's future cash flow is essential for making informed investment decisions [18][19]. - He advocates for using discounted cash flow (DCF) as a logical valuation method, focusing on companies with monopolistic advantages and strong cash flow certainty [19]. Long-term Perspective - The article underscores the importance of making principled investment choices and maintaining a long-term perspective, as exemplified by Duan's adherence to value investing principles [20][21]. - Duan's investment philosophy aligns with the belief that value investing leads to sustainable success and personal fulfillment [23][24].