Summary of China Resources Beer Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Resources Beer - **Industry**: Beverage (Beer) Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Resources Beer reported revenue and volume-price performance that outperformed peers, with a projected net profit of approximately 5.3 billion yuan for 2025, expected to reach 6 billion yuan in 2026, and potentially exceed 6.5 billion yuan in 2027, maintaining over 10% growth in the next two years [3][16][22] - The revenue growth center is anticipated to be around 3% to 4%, driven by a 2% increase in beer sales volume and price optimization from product structure [17] Product Strategy - The new chairman has adjusted product strategies and cost control measures, focusing on regional products and flexible promotions, while leveraging strong regional brands [2][5][22] - The company aims to enhance its share in the sub-premium segment by diversifying its product offerings rather than relying on a single product [2][7] - The Heineken brand is expected to grow over 20% in 2025, reaching a scale of 700,000 to 800,000 tons, with a healthy channel and an average inventory of about three weeks [2][8] Market Expansion - China Resources Beer is expanding from mature markets to emerging markets, with a focus on regions like Jiangsu, Shanghai, Chongqing, and Beijing, competing with brands like Carlsberg and Budweiser [9][10] - The company has successfully promoted the Red Duke series in the Northeast market, with expected sales exceeding 100,000 tons, and the Snow Beer Old Snow series projected to reach 150,000 to 200,000 tons, reflecting a significant change in product structure that enhances profit elasticity [11][12] Cost Management - The company has implemented refined management practices to achieve cost savings, including a 10% reduction in brand investment and a decrease in management and labor costs [14][15] - The relocation of headquarters to Shenzhen has contributed to natural personnel attrition, aiding in cost reduction [14] - Adjustments in promotional expenses are expected to yield further savings, with plans to reduce the number of sales staff and transition some to third-party roles [15] Valuation and Investment Outlook - The current valuation of China Resources Beer is approximately 14 times earnings, which is relatively low compared to the food and beverage industry, with a target upside of around 30% [4][18] - Public fund holdings in the company have decreased over the past few years, indicating a relatively low capital presence [21] - The company’s dividend payout ratio was about 50% in 2024, with expectations for this ratio to increase in the future [20] Future Expectations - The new management's changes in product strategy and regional investment are expected to lead to better-than-expected profit growth in the coming years, particularly in high-end and sub-premium products [22] Additional Important Insights - The company’s average beer price per ton was approximately 3,355 yuan, with a gross profit of about 1,380 yuan per ton, indicating a focus on higher-margin products moving forward [13]

Core Viewpoint - China Resources Beer is successfully implementing its high-end strategy, which is driving an increase in ton price and gross margin [1] Group 1: High-End Strategy and Market Position - The company is firmly executing its "battle for high-end" strategy, establishing a matrix of "Chinese brands + international brands" to solidify its leading market position [1] - The use of popular brands like "Yong Chuang Tian Ya" and "Snow Beer" helps to enhance market share, while premium brands like Heineken and Red Horse elevate product positioning, driving ton price and profit margin increases [1] - The company is actively developing new products to meet consumer demands for personalization and differentiation [1] Group 2: Capacity Optimization - The company is proactively shutting down excess capacity, reducing the number of factories from 98 in 2017 to 60 by 2025, while maintaining a production capacity of 19.2 million kiloliters [1] - Factories are widely distributed across 25 provinces and municipalities in China, covering most regions of the country [1] Group 3: Operational Efficiency and Profitability - The implementation of the "Three Precision Management" strategy (streamlining organization, lean cost, and refined business) has led to significant improvements in operational efficiency [1] - In the first half of 2025, the company's gross margin increased to 48.9%, and net profit margin rose to 24.0% [1] Group 4: Management Transition and Market Confidence - The company has experienced a smooth management transition, actively communicating with investors and emphasizing that core strategies remain unchanged [1] - The new management team has extensive frontline experience in the beer business and has successfully led recent channel and marketing innovations, helping to stabilize market confidence and eliminate uncertainties [1] Group 5: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 38.87 billion, 40.65 billion, and 42.20 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of +0.6%, +4.6%, and +3.8% respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 5.89 billion, 6.29 billion, and 6.79 billion yuan for the same period, with year-on-year growth of +24.3%, +6.8%, and +7.8% respectively [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.82 yuan, 1.94 yuan, and 2.09 yuan for 2025-2027 [2]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer [5][12] Core Views - China Resources Beer is executing its high-end strategy effectively, driving up tonnage price and gross margin. The company has established a matrix of "Chinese brands + international brands" to solidify its market position and enhance product pricing [1][12] - The company is optimizing its production capacity by shutting down excess facilities, reducing the number of factories from 98 in 2017 to 60 by 2025, while maintaining a capacity of 19.2 million kiloliters [1][12] - The implementation of "Three Precision Management" has improved operational efficiency, with gross margin rising to 48.9% and net profit margin to 24.0% in the first half of 2025 [1][12] Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Resources Beer is a leading player in the Chinese beer industry, focusing solely on beer after divesting non-beer businesses in 2015. The company has a significant market presence with a strong brand portfolio [17][19] Industry Analysis - The Chinese beer market is experiencing stagnation in sales volume, with a projected CAGR of -0.4% from 2010 to 2025. However, the retail price of beer is expected to continue rising, indicating potential for price increases [36][38][43] - The market is concentrated, with the top three players (China Resources, Tsingtao, and Budweiser) accounting for 60.1% of the market share as of 2023, suggesting limited room for further consolidation [45][47] Investment Logic - The long-term strategy focuses on high-end product development, leveraging both domestic and international brands to enhance product pricing and market share. The company aims to continue optimizing its product structure to drive tonnage price and profit margin improvements [63][68] - The forecast for revenue from 2025 to 2027 is projected at 38.87 billion, 40.65 billion, and 42.20 billion yuan, with net profit expected to reach 5.89 billion, 6.29 billion, and 6.79 billion yuan respectively [12][3]

Group 1 - The overall performance of the beer industry in the first half of 2025 shows steady revenue growth and double-digit profit increase, with total revenue reaching 41.534 billion yuan, up 2.75% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 6.512 billion yuan, up 11.81% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 and Q2 of 2025, the beer sector's revenue was 20.043 billion yuan and 21.491 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.68% and 1.90%, while net profits were 2.519 billion yuan and 3.993 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 10.62% and 12.57% [1] - The beer market is expected to see a recovery in consumption patterns, with potential for beta configuration opportunities in the beer sector if consumer policies improve marginally [1] Group 2 - The beer industry's sales and price performance have been weak in 2025, attributed to slow recovery in consumer spending and temporary policy impacts on on-premise consumption [2] - Despite the weak beta performance, emerging brands like Yan Beer and Zhu Beer have shown strong sales and pricing performance, while overall cost elasticity continues to improve, leading to a steady increase in gross profit margins [2] - The beer sector is anticipated to maintain a steady operational trend in the second half of 2025, supported by resilient demand from middle-income consumers and a recovery in beer production [3] Group 3 - The free cash flow of leading Chinese beer companies is expected to remain at a high-quality level, with increasing dividend and yield rates, driven by significant improvements in net profit margins since 2018 [3] - The focus on high-end beer products and the gradual reduction of capital expenditures from previous peaks are expected to support the continued stability of free cash flow [3]

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Zhao Chunwu as the Chairman of China Resources Beer marks a significant leadership transition following the resignation of Hou Xiaohai, with Zhao facing challenges in a competitive beer market and a loss-making liquor business [5][6][10]. Leadership Transition - Zhao Chunwu has officially transitioned from acting Chairman to Chairman and Chairman of the Finance Committee, effective September 3, 2025 [2][6]. - Zhao has over 20 years of experience within the China Resources system, having held various key positions since joining in 2003 [5][8]. - The board has expressed high confidence in Zhao's management and leadership abilities, considering him the best candidate to drive further development for the company [8]. Business Performance - In the first half of the year, China Resources Beer reported a beer sales volume of approximately 6.487 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, with revenue reaching 23.161 billion yuan, up 2.6% [10]. - The company's gross profit margin for beer increased by 2.5 percentage points to 48.3%, driven by high-end product sales, which grew over 10% [10]. - The liquor business, however, reported a loss of 150 million yuan, with revenues dropping to 780 million yuan from 1.18 billion yuan year-on-year [10][11]. Strategic Direction - Zhao has committed to continuing the high-quality and high-end development strategy initiated by his predecessor, with no major changes expected [11]. - The company aims to enhance its product offerings to cater to diverse consumer preferences, focusing on personalized and niche products [11]. - Zhao acknowledged that the integration of beer and liquor sales has not met expectations, but efforts are underway to deepen collaboration between beer distributors and liquor projects [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Zhao Chunwu as the new chairman of China Resources Beer marks a significant leadership transition within the company, following the departure of the previous chairman, Hou Xiaohai, less than three months ago [3]. Group 1: Leadership Transition - Zhao Chunwu has been promoted from president to chairman and will also serve as the chairman of the company's finance committee [2]. - Zhao has been with China Resources Snow Beer for 22 years, having held various managerial positions across different regions before becoming the vice president of China Resources Beer in May 2022 [3]. - During the interim period after Hou Xiaohai's departure, Zhao assumed the responsibilities of the chairman, indicating a smooth transition within the leadership [3][5]. Group 2: Business Performance - In the first half of the year, China Resources Beer reported a 2.6% year-on-year increase in beer revenue and a 2.2% increase in sales volume, outperforming the overall industry, which saw a 0.3% decline in beer production among large enterprises [3][4]. - The growth in sales is attributed to the positive impact of high-end product offerings, with premium and above beer sales growing by over 10% year-on-year [4]. - The "Heineken" brand maintained a growth rate of over 20%, while "Old Snow" saw a more than 70% increase in sales, and "Red Duke" sales doubled [4]. Group 3: Strategic Focus - Zhao Chunwu's primary tasks will include maintaining China Resources Beer's leadership position in the Chinese beer market and further enhancing the product mix towards high-end offerings to improve profitability [4]. - The board of directors expressed confidence in Zhao's management and leadership capabilities, believing he is the best candidate to drive the company's further development [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a stable performance in its beer business for the first half of 2025, while the white liquor segment faced significant challenges due to reduced demand from business banquets [1][2]. Group 1: Beer Business Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved beer revenue of 240.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.69%, with sales volume reaching 6.487 million kiloliters, up 2.19% year-on-year [1]. - The company continued to push for premiumization, with revenue per kiloliter increasing by 4.4% year-on-year, and sales of premium and above beer growing over 10% [1]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 48.88%, an increase of 1.97 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a 0.41% decrease in beer cost per kiloliter [1]. Group 2: White Liquor Business Challenges - The white liquor segment reported revenue of 7.83 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decline of 33.53% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of reduced business banquet scenarios [2]. - The white liquor business incurred an EBIT loss of 1.52 billion yuan, attributed to the significant drop in revenue [2]. - The company plans to enhance pricing strategies and optimize expenses to improve sales in the second half of the year [2]. Group 3: Financial Outlook and Dividends - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.464 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 26.07%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.34 percentage points [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.93, 1.97, and 2.09 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 14, 13, and 13 times based on the closing price on August 25, 2025 [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [5]. Core Views - The company is experiencing rapid growth in its fundamentals, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025. Revenue reached 239.42 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.83%, while net profit rose by 23.04% to 57.89 billion RMB [6]. - The beer segment is showing strong performance, particularly in high-end products, while the white liquor business is currently under pressure but has potential for recovery [5][6]. - The company is actively adapting to market changes, enhancing brand visibility, and leveraging its resources in the beer sector to support its white liquor business [6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price of the stock is 28.58 HKD, with a market capitalization of 92,718.58 million HKD. The stock has seen a one-year high of 36.00 HKD and a low of 21.60 HKD [3]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 48.88%, an increase of 1.97 percentage points year-on-year. The EBITDA, excluding special items, increased by 18.69% to 89.22 billion RMB [6]. - The beer segment generated revenue of 231.61 billion RMB, up 2.64% year-on-year, while the white liquor segment saw a decline of 33.7% to 7.81 billion RMB [6]. Sales and Strategy - The company’s beer sales volume reached 648.7 million tons, a 2.2% increase year-on-year, with high-end products showing significant growth. The average selling price for beer increased by 0.4% to 3,570 RMB per ton [6]. - The company is embracing new consumer trends by developing various specialty beers and has established strategic partnerships with major online platforms to enhance its sales channels [6]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 53.58 billion RMB, 58.6 billion RMB, and 63.84 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16, 15, and 13 [6][7].

Investment Rating - The food and beverage industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry is currently at a historical low valuation, with a PE-TTM of 21.92x, which is at the 17th percentile over the past 15 years [13][19] - The white liquor sector is expected to see a weak recovery in demand due to the gradual easing of policy pressures and the impact of infrastructure projects [2][19] - The report highlights the strong performance of leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, which are expected to attract investment due to their stable pricing and solid dividend yields [2][19] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The food and beverage industry rose by 3.29% in the week of August 18-22, slightly underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 3.49% [6][7] - Among the sub-sectors, other liquor categories saw the highest increase at 8.21%, followed by soft drinks at 5.06% and white liquor at 3.62% [9][10] White Liquor Sector - The collaboration between JiuGuiJiu and the retail chain Pang Dong Lai is expected to significantly boost annual performance, with the new product "JiuGui·ZiYouAi" gaining popularity due to its quality and transparent pricing [21][23] - The average price of Kweichow Moutai has decreased to 1845 RMB, reflecting market adjustments [20][24] Beer Sector - China Resources Beer reported a revenue of 23.942 billion RMB for the first half of the year, a 0.8% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 5.789 billion RMB, up 23% [25][26] - The company's gross margin improved to 48.9%, driven by a high-end product strategy and reduced raw material costs [26][27] Cost Indicators - The report includes various cost indicators, such as the prices of soybeans and sugar, which are relevant for the food and beverage industry [28][30]

Group 1: China Resources Beer - China Resources Beer reported a revenue of RMB 23.942 billion for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [1] - The company's profit before interest and tax and net profit attributable to shareholders were RMB 7.691 billion and RMB 5.789 billion, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 20.8% and 23.0% [1] - The beer sales volume reached approximately 6.487 million kiloliters, up 2.2% year-on-year, with high-end beer products seeing over 10% growth [1] Group 2: Miao Ke Lan Duo - Miao Ke Lan Duo's revenue increased by 7.98% to RMB 2.567 billion in the first half of 2025, with net profit rising by 86.27% to RMB 133 million [2] - The cheese business generated RMB 2.136 billion, a 14.85% increase year-on-year, accounting for 83.67% of total revenue [2] - The restaurant industrial cheese series saw a revenue increase of 36.26% to RMB 816 million [2] Group 3: Qiaqia Food - Qiaqia Food's revenue for the first half of 2025 was RMB 2.752 billion, a decrease of 5.05% year-on-year, with net profit down 73.68% to RMB 88.6416 million [3] - The decline was attributed to external channel changes and the timing of the Spring Festival [3] - The company expanded its overseas market presence and e-commerce channels, achieving breakthroughs in various international markets [3] Group 4: Tianwei Food - Tianwei Food is planning to issue H-shares and apply for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its international strategy and capital structure [4] Group 5: Muyuan Foods - Muyuan Foods reported a revenue of RMB 76.463 billion for the first half of 2025, a 34.46% increase year-on-year, with net profit soaring by 1169.77% to RMB 10.53 billion [5] - The company achieved a complete cost of pig farming below RMB 12.1 per kg by June 2025 [6] Group 6: Estée Lauder - Estée Lauder's net sales for the fiscal year 2025 were USD 14.326 billion, a decrease of 8% year-on-year [7] - The company reported an operating loss of USD 785 million due to increased impairment and restructuring costs [7] - The brand La Mer achieved double-digit growth in organic sales in mainland China for two consecutive quarters [7] Group 7: Walmart China - Walmart's total revenue for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 was USD 177.4 billion, a 4.8% increase year-on-year [8] - Walmart China reported net sales of USD 5.8 billion, a 30.1% increase year-on-year, with comparable sales up 21.5% [8] - E-commerce sales grew by 39%, accounting for over 50% of total sales [8] Group 8: Yonghui Superstores - Yonghui Superstores reported a revenue of RMB 29.948 billion for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 20.73% year-on-year [9] - The company incurred a net loss of RMB 241 million, attributed to strategic transformations and store closures [9] - Online business revenue reached RMB 5.49 billion, accounting for 18.33% of total revenue, with a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [9]