研究员：王雪骄 盈利预测与投资评级：公司啤酒业务上半年恢复较好，我们认为展望下半年原材料红利有望继续兑现， 销售费用优化贡献利润。在稳健增长的现金流下，公司积极回馈股东，中期派息0.464 元/股，分红率为 26.07%，同比+0.34pct。我们预计2025-2027 年EPS 分别为1.93、1.97、2.09元，对应2025 年8 月25 日收 盘价（26.29 元/股、28.58 港币/股）市盈率14、13、13 倍，维持"买入"评级。 事件：公司发布2 025年中期业绩，实现营业收入239.42亿元，同比+0.83%，股东应占溢利57.89 亿元， 同比+23.04%。 风险因素：原材料价格波动、吨酒收入或者次高端及以上产品销量不及预期、白酒业务改善不及预期 受商务宴请影响，白酒收入承压。2025H1 公司白酒业务收入实现7.83亿元，同比-33.53%，我们认为主 要受到商务宴请场景的影响。从盈利能力来看，白酒业务息税前利润亏损1.52 亿元，主要系收入大幅下 降。 机构：信达证券 面对市场短期调整，公司将积极推动价格重塑、优化费用投入，积极推动中档和光瓶酒产品覆盖和销 售，力争下半年销售有所提升 ...

证券研究报告 食品饮料 | 非白酒 港股|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 25 日 证券分析师 张东雪 SAC：S1350525060001 zhangdongxue@huayuanstock.com 林若尧 SAC：S1350525070002 linruoyao@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 08 月 | 25 | | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | | | 28.58 | | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | | 36.00/21.60 | | | | 元） | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | | | 92,718.58 | | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | | | 92,718.58 | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | | 43.72 | | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | | 华润啤酒(00291.HK) 投资评级： 增持（首次） ——啤酒高端化有序推进 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2025 年 08 月 25 日 食品饮料 强于大市 投资要点： 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：贵州茅台业绩符合 预期，龙头韧性凸显》2025-08-19 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：国资并购上市公司 案例增多，小体量或更受青睐》2025-08-11 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：育儿补贴政策出台， 乳制品有望率先收益》2025-08-05 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：食饮持仓环比减少， 雅江项目催化白酒行情》2025-07-28 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：6 月餐饮增速放缓， 白酒有望筑底企稳》2025-07-22 范林泉 S0820525020001 021-32229888-25516 fanlinquan@ajzq.com 行业及产业 中报陆续落地，板块仍处低位 ——食品饮料行业跟踪报告 投资建议： 白酒：随着政策压力逐渐消退，在扩消费政策、雅江项目带动基建热潮等催化下，需求有望 弱复苏，动销有望进入降幅收窄通道。行业目前处于估值低位，悲观预期充分，随着中报陆 地落地，业绩压力充分释放。头部酒企带动提高分 ...

酒业 华润啤酒上半年营收239.42亿元，"老雪"销量同比增长超70% 8月19日中午，华润啤酒发布公告。宣布上半年营收人民币239.42亿元，同比增长0.8%。未经审核之未 计利息及税项前盈利及股东应占溢利分别为人民币76.91亿元及人民币57.89亿元，分别同比增长20.8% 和23.0%。啤酒业务方面，集团于2025年上半年实现啤酒销量约648.7万千升，同比上升2.2%。集团高端 啤酒产品持续发力，2025年上半年普高档及以上啤酒销量同比增长超通10%。其中，「喜力」在去年高 基数的情况下销量仍突破两成增长，「老雪」销量同比增长超过70%，「红爵」量比去年同期实现翻倍 增长。 乳业 妙可蓝多上半年净利提高86.27%，餐饮工业系列奶酪收入上升36.26%至8.16亿 近日，妙可蓝多发布2025年半年报。披露公司上半年营收增长7.98%至25.67亿元，归属净利提高86.27% 至1.33亿元。报告期内，公司奶酪业务实现收入21.36亿元，较上年同期增加14.85%。奶酪业务收入占 主营业务收入比例由去年同期的82.02%进一步增长至83.67%。贸易业务及液态奶业务分别实现收入2.3 亿元及1.87亿 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 报告摘要 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 25H1公司关停2间啤酒厂，截至2025年6月底共营运60间啤酒厂，年产能约1920万千升。若扣除25H1因产能优 化所产生的固定资产减值和一次性员工补偿及安置费用约2.41亿元，以及投资搬迁协议确认的收益约8.27亿 元，公司EBIT同比上升11.3%至71.05亿元。25H1公司宣派中期股息每股0.464元，同比增长24.4%。 高端啤酒表现亮眼，白酒业务积极调整应对行业压力 25H1公司啤酒业务表现亮眼，高端化战略持续推进，"喜力"、"雪花纯生"、"老雪"等核心品牌均实现快速增 长。展望未来，公司将继续聚焦高端化"3+N"品牌组合，推动长期增长："十五五"期间，"喜力"业务不仅要做 大，还要保持高质量增长，充分展现档次和 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][7][16] Core Views - The company demonstrated robust resilience in the first half of 2025, with a revenue of RMB 23.94 billion (+0.8% YoY) and a net profit of RMB 5.79 billion (+23.0% YoY) [4][13] - The beer business achieved volume and price growth, leading the industry in premiumization, with beer revenue of RMB 23.16 billion (+2.6% YoY) and sales volume of 6.487 million kiloliters (+2.2% YoY) [5][14] - The baijiu business is undergoing significant adjustments, with revenue declining to RMB 780 million (-33.7% YoY), prompting a strategic restructuring [6][15] Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a gross margin of 48.9% (+2.0 percentage points YoY) and a net margin of 24.2% (+4.4 percentage points YoY) in 1H25 [4][13] - Core EBIT reached RMB 7.11 billion (+11.3% YoY), with an EBITDA margin improvement of 3.1 percentage points to 34.8% [4][13] - The forecasted EPS for 2025-2027 is RMB 1.72, RMB 1.80, and RMB 1.91 respectively, with a target price maintained at HK$36 [2][16] Business Segment Analysis - The beer segment showed strong performance with a price per ton of RMB 3,570 (+0.4% YoY) and a significant increase in premium product sales [5][14] - The baijiu segment faced challenges due to government consumption restrictions, leading to a strategic shift towards more flexible pricing and product strategy adjustments [6][15] Market Position and Valuation - The company is positioned as the largest beer enterprise in China, with significant advantages in channels, costs, and brand recognition [7][16] - The current P/E ratio of 15 is below the industry average, indicating substantial valuation recovery potential [7][16]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the contrasting performance of China Resources Beer, with its beer business thriving while the liquor segment, particularly the white liquor business, is struggling significantly [3][5]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Resources Beer reported a total revenue of 23.942 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.789 billion yuan, marking a substantial growth of 23% and setting a historical record [3]. - The beer segment generated revenue of 23.161 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.6% year-on-year growth, with a gross margin increase of 2.5 percentage points to 48.3% [3]. - Conversely, the white liquor business reported revenue of approximately 0.781 billion yuan, a decline of over 300 million yuan compared to the previous year, representing a drop of more than 30% [3][5]. White Liquor Business Challenges - The white liquor segment faced a significant downturn, with a reported revenue of 0.781 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, down 33% year-on-year [5][10]. - The flagship product "Abstract" contributed nearly 80% of the white liquor revenue but saw its price drop significantly, with some retail prices falling below 500 yuan, a decrease of over 100 yuan from peak levels [7][9]. - The overall white liquor market is experiencing a deep adjustment, with sales declining by 15% during the 2025 Spring Festival and mid-to-high-end products seeing a 20% drop [6]. Market Competition and Strategy - In response to the competitive landscape, the company plans to focus on developing its "Abstract," "Jinsha," and light bottle products, leveraging its established beer distribution network to enhance market penetration [9][11]. - The company has invested over 130 billion yuan in building its white liquor business through acquisitions, including a significant purchase of 55.19% of Guizhou Jinsha Liquor for 12.3 billion yuan [10][11]. - Despite these investments, the white liquor segment has yet to break even, with cumulative revenue of about 5 billion yuan against the 13 billion yuan investment [11][12]. Management Changes - Recent management changes include the departure of Chairman Hou Xiaohai from key positions in the white liquor business, with new leadership taking over [14]. - The company acknowledges that building brand recognition and loyalty in the white liquor market, especially in the high-end segment, will require sustained investment and time [14].

6月27日，华润啤酒发布公告称，侯孝海因有意投入更多时间于个人安排，决定辞任执行董事、董事会主席，且不再担任董事会辖下财务委员会主席，执 行委员会、购股权总务委员会成员。华润啤酒表示，侯孝海辞任后，董事会主席职位将暂时悬空，直至公司委任合适继任人。公司执行董事及总裁赵春武 暂时承担过渡期间董事会主席的工作及责任。截至今日，华润啤酒尚未正式公布新的"掌门人"。 赵春武出席了此次财报后举办的业绩发布会，他称，现任管理层对于下一步发展有着高度共识，对于此前侯孝海带领下的华润啤酒战略，以延续和发扬为 主，不会有太大改动。 新京报 记者 王子扬 中国基金报 记者 夏天 8月19日，华润啤酒发布2025年中期业绩：上半年营收239.42亿元，同比增长0.8%；股东应占溢利57.89亿元，同比增长23%。 侯孝海离职后，暂时承担董事会主席工作及责任的华润啤酒执行董事及总裁赵春武出席业绩说明会，提到侯孝海离职一事，他表示"舍不得"。 啤酒业务方面，华润啤酒上半年未经审计营业额为231.61亿元，同比增长2.6%；实现啤酒销量约648.7万千升，同比上升2.2%。高端啤酒产品持续发力， 上半年普高档及以上啤酒销量同比增长超过1 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 35.0 per share, indicating a potential upside of 23.8% from the current price of HKD 28.28 [1][6][15]. Core Insights - The company has successfully implemented a high-end strategy and the "Three Precision" approach, resulting in a revenue of RMB 239.42 billion for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. EBIT grew by 20.8% to RMB 76.91 billion, and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 23.0% to RMB 57.89 billion [3][8]. - The beer segment continues to focus on high-end products, with revenue reaching RMB 231.61 billion, up 2.6% year-on-year, and sales volume increasing by 2.2% to 6.487 million tons. The average selling price rose by 0.4% to RMB 3,570 per ton, driven by the growth of premium products [4][10]. - The white wine segment faced challenges, with revenue declining by 33.7% to RMB 7.81 billion, and EBITDA dropping by 47.1% to RMB 2.18 billion. The company is actively adjusting its strategy to enhance the performance of its white wine products [5][14]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 48.9%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 24.2%, up 4.4 percentage points [8]. - The company expects net profits for 2025 to be RMB 56.46 billion, with projections of RMB 57.02 billion and RMB 62.14 billion for 2026 and 2027, respectively [6][15]. - The financial outlook includes a slight adjustment in profit forecasts due to one-time contributions and ongoing adjustments in the white wine business [6][15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Beer is "Outperform the Market" [6][11]. Core Views - The beer business has shown growth in both volume and price, with a revenue increase of 2.5% year-on-year in 1H25, driven by the company's embrace of new retail channels and strong consumption during the Spring Festival [1][3]. - The white liquor business has faced significant challenges, with a revenue decline of 33.7% year-on-year in 1H25, primarily due to industry adjustments and policy impacts [2][10]. - The company's profitability has improved, with a gross margin increase of 2.5 percentage points to 48.3% in the beer segment, aided by cost reductions and operational efficiency measures [2][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company reported a total revenue of 239.4 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 57.9 billion CNY, up 22.8% [1][9]. - The core EBIT for the same period was 71.1 billion CNY, reflecting an 11.3% increase year-on-year [1][9]. Beer Business - The beer segment's revenue rose by 2.5% year-on-year, with sales volume increasing by 2.2% and price per ton rising by 0.4% [1][9]. - The growth in sales volume was attributed to the company's strategic focus on non-traditional retail channels and effective inventory management [1][9]. - High-end products like Heineken maintained strong growth, with sales growth exceeding 20% despite a high base from the previous year [1][3]. White Liquor Business - The white liquor segment generated 7.8 billion CNY in revenue, down 33.7% year-on-year, with a significant impact on profitability due to fixed cost dilution [2][10]. - The white liquor business accounted for only 3.3% of total revenue, limiting its overall impact on the company's performance [2][10]. Profitability Forecast - The company expects to achieve total revenues of 388.2 billion CNY, 398.6 billion CNY, and 409.6 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.5%, 2.7%, and 2.8% [3][11]. - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 59.0 billion CNY, 59.6 billion CNY, and 64.1 billion CNY, reflecting growth rates of 24.4%, 1.0%, and 7.6% respectively [3][11].