Company Overview - In Q2 2025, the retail revenue of the Li Ning brand (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) grew at a low single-digit percentage year-on-year, with a net increase of 11 retail points during the quarter [1] - The wholesale channel continued to outperform direct sales, with healthy inventory levels despite pressure on discounts due to market fluctuations [1] - The retail revenue from offline direct sales declined at a mid-single-digit percentage year-on-year, with a net decrease of 13 retail points, while the offline wholesale channel saw low single-digit growth and a net opening of 24 retail points [1] Product Performance - In terms of product categories, the running category saw high single-digit year-on-year growth, although the growth rate slowed compared to Q1 2025, which benefited from sponsorship of events like the Beijing Marathon [1] - The fitness category continued to perform well with high single-digit year-on-year growth, while the sports lifestyle category stabilized with flat year-on-year performance [1] - The basketball category experienced a decline in line with industry trends, while emerging categories such as outdoor and badminton maintained healthy growth [1] Discount and Inventory Management - Discounts in both online and offline channels deepened year-on-year at a low single-digit percentage, but the company maintained a healthy inventory level, with a channel inventory-to-sales ratio of approximately 4x as of the end of June [1] Future Outlook - Since July, retail has continued to fluctuate, with pressure on offline revenue and discounts for the Li Ning brand [2] - In the second half of the year, the company plans to increase marketing and product investment around the theme of "Olympics and Technology," including activities related to Olympic sponsorship and new product launches in various categories [2] - The management maintains guidance for 2025 revenue to be flat year-on-year and a high single-digit net profit margin [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 0.92 and 1.07 HKD respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to 16x and 14x the 2025 and 2026 P/E ratios [2] - The target price remains at 20.82 HKD, implying a 30% upside potential compared to the current stock price, corresponding to 21x and 18x the 2025 and 2026 P/E ratios [2]

Core Viewpoint - Company maintains EPS forecasts for 2025/26 at 0.92/1.07 HKD, with current stock price corresponding to 16/14 times 2025/26 P/E ratio, maintaining an outperform rating and target price of 20.82 HKD, indicating a 30% upside potential from current price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the retail revenue of the Li Ning brand (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) grew low single digits year-on-year, with a net increase of 11 retail points in the quarter [1] - Wholesale channel continues to outperform direct sales, with offline wholesale retail revenue growing low single digits year-on-year and a net opening of 24 retail points during the period; online channel retail revenue grew mid single digits year-on-year [2] - The running category saw sales growth in high single digits year-on-year, while the fitness category continued to perform well with high single-digit growth; the sports lifestyle category stabilized with year-on-year growth flat in Q2 2025 [2] Group 2: Inventory and Discounts - Despite a volatile retail environment, the company maintained a healthy inventory level, with a channel inventory turnover ratio of approximately 4x as of the end of June, indicating controllable inventory status [2] - Discounts in both online and offline channels deepened low single digits year-on-year [2] Group 3: Marketing and Future Outlook - As retail remains volatile since July, the company plans to increase marketing and product investment focused on "Olympics plus technology" for the second half of the year, including activities related to Olympic sponsorship and new product launches in various categories [3] - The management maintains guidance for 2025 revenue to be flat year-on-year, with net profit margin in high single digits [3]

Core Insights - The sports consumer goods sector has shown strong performance in 2024, with most companies reporting positive results amid market opportunities [1] Company Performance - Li Ning's revenue for 2024 reached 28.676 billion yuan, a 3.9% increase from 27.598 billion yuan in 2023; gross profit was 14.156 billion yuan, up 6% from 13.352 billion yuan [1] - Li Ning's profit attributable to equity holders decreased to 3.013 billion yuan from 3.187 billion yuan in 2023 [1] - Anta, the largest player in the sector, reported a revenue increase of 13.6% to 70.826 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 16.5% to 11.927 billion yuan [1] - Xtep International's revenue grew by 6.5% to 13.577 billion yuan, with a profit increase of 20.2% to 1.238 billion yuan [1] - 361 Degrees reported a revenue of 10.07 billion yuan, a 19.6% increase, with profit attributable to equity holders rising by 19.5% to 1.149 billion yuan [1] Strategic Focus - Li Ning's CEO emphasized a strategy of "steady operation, solid foundation, and pragmatic development," indicating a focus on maintaining gross margins rather than aggressive scaling [2] - The company aims to control unnecessary costs while investing in key areas such as enhancing brand recognition and core competitiveness through increased marketing expenditures [2] - The running category showed significant growth, with retail sales increasing by 25% last year, prompting Li Ning to expand its business opportunities in this segment [3] Market Trends - The overall retail sales of consumer goods in 2024 grew by 3.5%, with sports and entertainment products seeing an impressive growth of 11.1% [3]