Company Overview - In Q2 2025, the retail revenue of the Li Ning brand (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) grew at a low single-digit percentage year-on-year, with a net increase of 11 retail points during the quarter [1] - The wholesale channel continued to outperform direct sales, with healthy inventory levels despite pressure on discounts due to market fluctuations [1] - The retail revenue from offline direct sales declined at a mid-single-digit percentage year-on-year, with a net decrease of 13 retail points, while the offline wholesale channel saw low single-digit growth and a net opening of 24 retail points [1] Product Performance - In terms of product categories, the running category saw high single-digit year-on-year growth, although the growth rate slowed compared to Q1 2025, which benefited from sponsorship of events like the Beijing Marathon [1] - The fitness category continued to perform well with high single-digit year-on-year growth, while the sports lifestyle category stabilized with flat year-on-year performance [1] - The basketball category experienced a decline in line with industry trends, while emerging categories such as outdoor and badminton maintained healthy growth [1] Discount and Inventory Management - Discounts in both online and offline channels deepened year-on-year at a low single-digit percentage, but the company maintained a healthy inventory level, with a channel inventory-to-sales ratio of approximately 4x as of the end of June [1] Future Outlook - Since July, retail has continued to fluctuate, with pressure on offline revenue and discounts for the Li Ning brand [2] - In the second half of the year, the company plans to increase marketing and product investment around the theme of "Olympics and Technology," including activities related to Olympic sponsorship and new product launches in various categories [2] - The management maintains guidance for 2025 revenue to be flat year-on-year and a high single-digit net profit margin [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 0.92 and 1.07 HKD respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to 16x and 14x the 2025 and 2026 P/E ratios [2] - The target price remains at 20.82 HKD, implying a 30% upside potential compared to the current stock price, corresponding to 21x and 18x the 2025 and 2026 P/E ratios [2]

Core Viewpoint - Company maintains EPS forecasts for 2025/26 at 0.92/1.07 HKD, with current stock price corresponding to 16/14 times 2025/26 P/E ratio, maintaining an outperform rating and target price of 20.82 HKD, indicating a 30% upside potential from current price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the retail revenue of the Li Ning brand (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) grew low single digits year-on-year, with a net increase of 11 retail points in the quarter [1] - Wholesale channel continues to outperform direct sales, with offline wholesale retail revenue growing low single digits year-on-year and a net opening of 24 retail points during the period; online channel retail revenue grew mid single digits year-on-year [2] - The running category saw sales growth in high single digits year-on-year, while the fitness category continued to perform well with high single-digit growth; the sports lifestyle category stabilized with year-on-year growth flat in Q2 2025 [2] Group 2: Inventory and Discounts - Despite a volatile retail environment, the company maintained a healthy inventory level, with a channel inventory turnover ratio of approximately 4x as of the end of June, indicating controllable inventory status [2] - Discounts in both online and offline channels deepened low single digits year-on-year [2] Group 3: Marketing and Future Outlook - As retail remains volatile since July, the company plans to increase marketing and product investment focused on "Olympics plus technology" for the second half of the year, including activities related to Olympic sponsorship and new product launches in various categories [3] - The management maintains guidance for 2025 revenue to be flat year-on-year, with net profit margin in high single digits [3]

在2024年体育大年的市场机遇下，大多数的体育消费品公司都交出了一份不错的成绩单。 目前，李宁的业务板块有跑步、篮球、综训、羽毛球、乒乓球和运动生活六大核心品类。记者注意到， 相较于其他的品类，去年跑步品类表现较为突出，其零售流水增长25%。 "2024年整个品类发展的时候，我们认为跑步品类有优势，需要扩大生意空间，也有市场占有率，因此 2024年，我们做了很多投入，也主动获取生意机会。"可以看到跑步品类零售流水去年有25%的增 长。"钱炜透露，"三大核心IP跑鞋，赤兔、超轻、飞电，2024年已经达1060万双，持续扩大跑步品类的 市场份额。 根据国家统计局数据显示，2024年，社会消费品零售总额同比增长3.5%，其中，限额以上单位服装、 鞋帽、针纺织品类商品零售额同比增长0.3%，而其中体育、娱乐用品类同比增长11.1%。 截至目前，国内几家头部的体育用品公司的2024年的业绩已经披露完毕。规模最大的安踏 （02020.HK）去年的营收同比增长13.6%至708.26亿元；归母净利润同比增长16.5%至119.27亿元。特步 国际（01368.HK）去年收入同比增长6.5%至135.77亿元，普通股股权持有 ...