机构：华源证券 研究员：丁一 盈利预测与评级：李宁作为国内头部运动服饰公司，聚焦"单品牌、多品类、多渠道"的发展规划，通过 研发投入持续迭代公司鞋履/服饰相关核心技术，并延续时尚设计，产品长期兼顾专业性及时尚性，持 续推高品牌力，筑高竞争壁垒，积极的渠道调整及创新能力有望构筑公司长期的增长驱动。我们预计公 司2025-2027 年归母净利润分别26.45 亿元/28.45 亿元/31.04 亿元。考虑到公司在运动服饰赛道的品牌地 位、产品研发能力及营销能力位于上乘，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示。线下消费复苏不及预期；渠道调整不及预期；行业竞争压力加大。 外部环境扰动下，公司25H1 业绩相对平稳。公司发布2025 半年报，25H1 公司实现营收148.17 亿元， 同比+3.3%，实现毛利润74.15 亿元，同比+2.5%，实现归母净利润17.37 亿元，同比-11.0%；从盈利能 力看，公司25H1 毛利率为50.0%，同比下降0.4pct，毛利率小幅下滑系直营渠道收入占比下降及折扣力 度加大，此外，公司25H1 归母净利率为11.7%，同比下降1.9pct，系公司聚焦核心资源投入下广告及市 场推广等费用增 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][7][25] Core Insights - The company has shown a steady recovery in sales during Q1 2025, with overall demand continuing to improve, aligning with expectations [7][8] - The company plans to enhance brand marketing and product innovation, aiming to strengthen its long-term competitiveness [7][8] - The company is expected to maintain its annual performance guidance, projecting flat revenue for 2025 and a high single-digit net profit margin [7][8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections (in billion RMB): - 2023: 27.6 - 2024: 28.7 - 2025E: 28.8 - 2026E: 30.1 - 2027E: 31.2 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023: 7% - 2024: 4% - 2025E: 0% - 2026E: 4% - 2027E: 4% [3][16] - Net profit projections (in billion RMB): - 2023: 3.19 - 2024: 3.01 - 2025E: 2.48 - 2026E: 2.64 - 2027E: 2.78 - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit: - 2023: -22% - 2024: -5% - 2025E: -18% - 2026E: 7% - 2027E: 5% [3][16] Market Data - Closing price as of April 29, 2025: HKD 14.62 - Market capitalization: HKD 37.79 billion - 52-week high/low: HKD 24.60 / HKD 12.56 [4][8] Operational Performance - Q1 2025 sales growth was driven by a strong performance in the footwear category, particularly in running shoes, which saw over 20% growth [7][8] - The company has optimized its channel structure, resulting in a net reduction of 201 direct stores in 2024, with a focus on improving average store productivity [7][8] - Inventory levels remain healthy, with a target inventory turnover ratio of 4-5 months by year-end [7][8] Future Outlook - The company aims to leverage its partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee to enhance brand visibility and professional image [7][8] - Continued investment in product development and marketing is expected to drive future growth, particularly in the outdoor and new product categories [7][8]