证券研究报告 | 2025年07月15日 李宁（02331.HK） 第二季度流水增长低单位数，库销比环比改善 |  | 公司研究·海外公司快评 | | 纺织服饰·服装家纺  | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 丁诗洁 | 0755-81981391 | dingshijie@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040004 | | 证券分析师： | 刘佳琪 | 010-88005446 | liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070003 | 事项： 公司公告：1、零售表现：截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日止第二季度，李宁销售点（不包括李宁 YOUNG）于整个平 台之零售流水按年录得低单位数增长。就渠道而言，线下渠道（包括零售及批发）录得低单位数下降，其 中零售（直接经营）渠道录得中单位数下降，批发（特许经销商）渠道录得低单位数增长；电子商务虚拟 店铺业务录得中单位数增长。2、销售点数量：截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，于中国，李宁销售点数量（不 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yancheng, a third-tier city in Jiangsu Province, is gaining popularity among South Korean tourists, particularly for golf, due to its proximity and cost-effectiveness compared to other destinations [3][7][32]. Group 1: South Korean Tourists and Golf - South Korean tourists, like Pei Ni, find Yancheng an attractive golf destination due to its short travel time and affordable costs, allowing them to play multiple rounds in a short trip [5][6]. - The number of South Korean visitors to Yancheng has significantly increased, with over 6,500 arrivals recorded by the end of April this year, marking a 61.9% year-on-year growth [7][8]. - Yancheng's golf courses are becoming increasingly popular, with the Shuyang Island Golf Club receiving 3,700 South Korean visitors in the first quarter alone [8][10]. Group 2: Local Adaptations and Services - The influx of South Korean golfers has led to improvements in local golf course services, including the introduction of Korean cuisine and staff who can communicate in Korean [10][11]. - Local golf courses offer competitive pricing for South Korean tourists, with costs for playing a round being lower than for local players, making it an attractive option for them [10][11]. - The presence of South Korean tourists has also led to a more vibrant atmosphere at local golf courses, with increased activity and demand for services [8][10]. Group 3: Cultural Integration and Community - Yancheng has a long-standing relationship with South Korea, having attracted numerous Korean enterprises since 1993, resulting in a significant Korean community in the city [15][16]. - The local government has established services to cater to the Korean population, including dedicated Korean language support at service centers [16]. - South Korean residents in Yancheng often engage in local activities, such as golf, and contribute to the cultural exchange between the two countries [16][20]. Group 4: Tourism and Natural Attractions - Yancheng is not only known for golf but also for its natural attractions, such as the wild elk and the unique coastal wetlands, which are drawing more tourists [24][32]. - The city has been promoted as a weekend getaway for urban dwellers from Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, emphasizing its accessibility and natural beauty [3][32]. - The local tourism industry is adapting to the growing interest in nature-based experiences, with services tailored to visitors seeking to explore Yancheng's wildlife and landscapes [31][32].

Core Viewpoint - Skechers has agreed to be acquired by 3G Capital, which may provide new opportunities for the company amid challenges such as tariff pressures and business development issues [2][3]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - 3G Capital will acquire all outstanding shares of Skechers at a cash price of $63 per share, representing a 30% premium over the weighted average share price over the last 15 trading days [3]. - Following the acquisition, Skechers will become a private company and will continue to be led by its current executive team [3]. - Skechers aims to continue its existing strategic initiatives post-acquisition, leveraging 3G Capital's long-term investment experience [3][11]. Group 2: Tariff Impact - Skechers faces significant pressure from U.S. tariff policies, which could lead to decreased profit margins, increased shoe prices, and reduced consumer demand [4][5]. - The U.S. market accounts for 38% of Skechers' global sales, while a majority of its manufacturing capabilities are based in Asia, making it vulnerable to tariff impacts [4]. Group 3: Business Performance - Skechers has experienced fluctuating global sales growth, with a 12.1% increase in sales for the 2024 fiscal year and a 7.5% increase for the 2023 fiscal year [8]. - The company reported a sales figure of $24.1 billion for Q1 2025, a 7.1% increase year-over-year, but faced a 16% decline in sales in its largest overseas market, China [8]. - Skechers' sales in China decreased by 0.9% in 2024, with a notable 11.5% drop in Q4 [8]. Group 4: Market Strategy - Skechers is shifting its focus towards professional sports segments, aiming to increase the proportion of professional sports products in total sales to 30% [9][10]. - The company has signed lifetime global contracts with international sports stars and is launching specialized footwear lines in basketball and soccer [10]. - Competitors like Nike and Adidas are also targeting low-price and down-market segments, intensifying competition for Skechers [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Li Ning is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6] Core Views - The report indicates that Li Ning's Q1 performance met expectations, with low discount sales improving and strong growth in running and e-commerce segments. The company focuses on professional sports, increasing resource allocation and expanding new products to cater to niche markets and emerging sectors [6][7][9] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For the fiscal year 2023, Li Ning reported a revenue of 27,598 million HKD, with a year-on-year growth of 7.0%. The projected revenue for 2025 is 28,742 million HKD, reflecting a minimal growth of 0.2% [10] - The net profit for 2023 was 3,187 million HKD, showing a decline of 21.6% year-on-year. The estimated net profit for 2025 is 2,459 million HKD, indicating a further decline of 18.4% [10] - The gross margin for 2023 was 48.4%, with a projected gross margin of 49.8% for 2025. The net margin is expected to decrease from 11.5% in 2023 to 8.6% in 2025 [10] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 14.6, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.4 [10] Operational Insights - In Q1 2025, Li Ning's total store count was 6,088, a decrease of 2% year-on-year. The company plans to close 10-20 direct stores and open 30-40 wholesale stores throughout the year [8] - The report highlights that the running category saw over 20% growth, driven by sponsorship of events and strong performance of new running shoe products [7][9]