Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the profit forecast for Lianyi Rong Technology-W (09959) for 2025 and 2026, adjusting the target price upward by 77% to HKD 3.6, reflecting a strategic breakthrough and business structure optimization [1] Company Status - As of Q3 2025, the number of core enterprise/financial institution partners increased by 30% and 7% year-to-date to 2,798 and 405 respectively, while the number of revenue-generating clients rose by 40% and 4% to 1,346 and 152 respectively, with a customer retention rate up by 3 percentage points to 99% [2] - The total asset processing scale for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 28% year-on-year to CNY 336.2 billion, with Q3 2025 transaction volume up by 30% year-on-year and 28% quarter-on-quarter to CNY 132.6 billion, marking a record high for the first three quarters [2] Business Growth - Direct financing business transaction volume for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 44% year-on-year to CNY 252.3 billion, with Q3 2025 transaction volume up by 54% year-on-year and 17% quarter-on-quarter, driven by the focus on key industries and innovative financial solutions [3] - Asset securitization business transaction volume for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 77 billion, with Q3 2025 showing a 77% quarter-on-quarter increase to CNY 37.5 billion, benefiting from deepening penetration in the infrastructure sector [3] - Cross-border cloud transaction volume for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 6.8 billion, with the company undergoing a rebranding of its international business in early October, which is expected to provide long-term growth momentum [3] Strategic Developments - The company successfully won a bid for a large central enterprise's Web 3.0-based supply chain finance platform project in Q3 2025, indicating potential breakthroughs in the Web 3.0 trade finance sector [4] - The company is steadily advancing its share repurchase plan, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns and management's confidence in future development [4]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the profit forecast for Lianyi Rong Technology-W (09959) for 2025 and 2026, adjusting the target price upward by 77% to HKD 3.6, reflecting a potential upside of 12.2% [1] Company Status - As of Q3 2025, the number of core enterprise/financial institution partners increased by 30% and 7% year-to-date to 2,798 and 405 respectively, while the number of revenue-generating clients rose by 40% and 4% to 1,346 and 152, with a customer retention rate up by 3 percentage points to 99% [2] - Total asset processing scale for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 28% year-on-year to CNY 336.2 billion, with Q3 2025 transaction volume up by 30% year-on-year and 28% quarter-on-quarter to CNY 132.6 billion, marking a record high for the first three quarters [2] Business Growth - Direct financing business transaction volume for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 44% year-on-year to CNY 252.3 billion, with Q3 2025 transaction volume up by 54% year-on-year and 17% quarter-on-quarter, driven by the company's focus on key industries and innovative financial solutions [2] - Asset securitization business transaction volume for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 77 billion, with Q3 2025 volume up by 77% quarter-on-quarter to CNY 37.5 billion, benefiting from deepening penetration in the infrastructure sector [2] International Strategy - Cross-border cloud transaction volume for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 6.8 billion, with the company rebranding its international business in early October, indicating potential long-term growth from its international strategy [3] Strategic Developments - The company successfully won a bid for a large central enterprise's Web 3.0-based supply chain finance platform project in Q3 2025, suggesting that its "stablecoin+" strategy may lead to breakthroughs in trade finance within the Web 3.0 space [4] - The company is steadily advancing its share repurchase plan, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns and management's confidence in future growth [4]

Company Dynamics - 联易融科技 reported 3Q25 operational data showing a 30% increase in the number of core enterprise/financial institution partners to 2,798 and a 40% increase in revenue-generating clients to 1,346, with a client retention rate of 99% [1] - Total asset processing scale for 1-3Q25 increased by 28% year-on-year to 336.2 billion, with 3Q25 transaction volume up 30% year-on-year and 28% quarter-on-quarter to 132.6 billion, marking a record high for the first three quarters [1] Business Performance - Direct financing business saw a 44% year-on-year increase in transaction volume for 1-3Q25 to 252.3 billion, with 3Q25 transaction volume up 54% year-on-year and 17% quarter-on-quarter, driven by efficient customer acquisition and innovative financial solutions [1] - Asset securitization business experienced a 3% year-on-year decline in transaction volume for 1-3Q25 to 77 billion, but 3Q25 showed a 77% quarter-on-quarter increase to 37.5 billion, indicating improvement in the ABS cloud under deepening penetration in the infrastructure sector [1] Strategic Developments - Cross-border cloud transaction volume decreased by 5% year-on-year to 6.8 billion for 1-3Q25, with a significant drop of 33% year-on-year and 22% quarter-on-quarter in 3Q25, but the company is optimistic about future growth from its international strategy [2] - The company successfully won a bid for a large central enterprise's Web3.0 supply chain finance platform project, indicating potential breakthroughs in the Web3.0 trade finance sector [2] - The company is actively repurchasing shares, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns and management's confidence in future development [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 remains unchanged, with the company currently trading at 0.9x and 0.8x P/B for 2025 and 2026 respectively [2] - The target price has been raised by 77% to 3.6 HKD, corresponding to 1.1x and 1.0x P/B for 2025 and 2026, with an upside potential of 12.2%, while maintaining an outperform rating [2]

Core Viewpoint - 联易融科技 reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating challenges in the current market environment and a shift in product strategy [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 25H1, the company achieved operating revenue of 375 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3% [1] - The adjusted net profit was -372 million yuan, compared to -189 million yuan in 24H1 [1] - The gross margin fell to 56.0%, down 14.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product structure and a more flexible pricing strategy [1] Share Buyback and Confidence - The company announced a commitment to repurchase at least 80 million USD of B-class shares within the next 12 months, reflecting confidence in its future [1] - In June 2025, the company canceled 148 million shares previously repurchased [1] Supply Chain Financial Technology Growth - The financing amount facilitated by supply chain financial technology reached 198.72 billion yuan in 25H1, a year-on-year increase of 27.4%, driven mainly by the multi-level circulation cloud [2] - The commission rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 0.18% [2] Business Segment Performance - Electronic debt certificate business facilitated financing of 159.22 billion yuan, up 38.6% year-on-year, with multi-level circulation cloud financing amounting to 133.23 billion yuan, a 54.4% increase [2] - Asset securitization business facilitated financing of 39.5 billion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year, with AMS cloud financing at 29.87 billion yuan, down 20.2% [3] - Cross-border cloud financing reached 4.84 billion yuan, up 13.9% year-on-year, supporting Chinese enterprises' overseas expansion [3] Long-term Strategic Initiatives - The company is developing a programmable trade token and a trade finance asset tokenization platform, aiming to capitalize on the growing demand for digital assets [4] - As of 25H1, the company collaborated with 2,565 core enterprises and 389 financial institutions, with a 25% increase in core enterprise clients [4] Investment Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading third-party supply chain financial technology solution provider with a light asset operating model [5] - The anticipated recovery in the real estate sector and growth in non-real estate businesses are expected to drive future performance [5] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025/2026/2027 are -0.15/0.06/0.09 yuan, with a target price of 3.49 HKD based on a 7x price-to-sales (PS) valuation for 2025 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [4][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 375 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 9.3% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -380 million yuan [1][8]. - The company plans a significant share buyback of at least 80 million USD over the next 12 months, reflecting confidence in its future performance [8][9]. - The international business is expected to create a second growth curve, with cross-border financing reaching 4.84 billion yuan, up 13.9% year-on-year [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 375 million yuan, down 9.3% year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit of -372 million yuan [1][8]. - The gross margin decreased to 56.0%, down 14.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product structure and a more flexible pricing strategy [8][9]. Business Segments - **Electronic Debt Certificate Business**: Financing amount reached 159.22 billion yuan, up 38.6% year-on-year, driven by strong growth in multi-level circulation cloud financing [3]. - **Asset Securitization Business**: Financing amount was 39.5 billion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year, with a notable increase in ABS cloud financing, which rose by 166.3% [3]. Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on expanding its core enterprise customer base, with a 19% increase in partnerships, and a 25% increase in core enterprise clients [9]. - The stablecoin business is positioned for long-term growth, with initiatives like the programmable trade token DTT and the trade finance asset tokenization platform ABT [9]. Future Outlook - The company expects to see a gradual recovery in profitability, with adjusted EPS forecasts of -0.15 yuan for 2025, -0.06 yuan for 2026, and 0.09 yuan for 2027 [10]. - The target price is set at 3.49 HKD, based on a 7x PS valuation for 2025 [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 3.45 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 25.0% from the recent closing price of 2.76 HKD [6][12]. Core Insights - The company experienced a revenue decline of 9.3% year-on-year in H1 2025, with total revenue reaching 3.75 billion RMB. The gross margin decreased significantly from 70.9% in H1 2024 to 56.0% in H1 2025, primarily due to changes in revenue structure and market competition [1][2]. - The company announced a substantial share buyback plan, committing to repurchase at least 80 million USD (approximately 623 million HKD), which represents about 11% of the total share capital [1][5]. Revenue Breakdown - The core enterprise cloud segment remains the revenue foundation, contributing 2.48 billion RMB, accounting for 66.3% of total revenue. The multi-polar circulation cloud continues to show high growth, with asset processing scale increasing by 54.4% to 133.23 billion RMB and adding 224 new clients [2][3]. - The AMS cloud business faced short-term pressure, with asset processing scale declining by 20.2% to 29.87 billion RMB, influenced by a sluggish supply chain asset securitization market, particularly in the real estate sector [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of 3.80 billion RMB in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 57.7%. Adjusted losses (non-IFRS) reached 3.72 billion RMB, a significant increase of 97.4% [1][4]. - Impairment losses rose to 2.70 billion RMB, up 66.5% from 1.62 billion RMB in the same period last year, primarily due to more conservative impairment policies on historical bridge supply chain assets [4][12]. Strategic Outlook - The company plans to focus on three core strategies: "AI + Industrial Finance," strategic acquisitions, and digital assets, aiming to create multiple growth engines. The application of AI technology and the development of digital asset solutions are expected to enhance operational efficiency and address cross-border payment challenges [11][12]. - The company is also optimizing its business structure by divesting non-core assets and concentrating on its primary operations [11][12].