1. Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated as neutral. BR is also rated as neutral [4][5] 2. Core View of the Report - The news of the EU's anti - dumping investigation on Chinese light - truck tires had a weak impact on the market, with limited actual influence as the market had long anticipated it. The cost support for natural rubber remains strong, and the supply and demand situation is expected to improve slightly. The price of natural rubber is expected to fluctuate. For BR, the supply pressure is small and the later - stage supply will decrease. The demand is expected to improve, and the price has certain support, but attention should be paid to the price of upstream butadiene [4][5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Data - In the futures market, the RU main contract closed at 14,820 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,715 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,780 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,720 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 12,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the market price of Zhejiang Transfar's BR9000 was 12,200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [1] Recent Market Information - In April, the export volume of Chinese truck and bus tires was 410,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.43% and a year - on - year increase of 10.11%. The cumulative export volume from January to April was 1,489,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.45%. In April, exports to Asia ranked first at 164,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.85% and a year - on - year increase of 0.78%. Exports to South America and Oceania increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, with exports to South America performing better, a month - on - month increase of 8.51% and a year - on - year increase of 46.09%. On May 21, the EU officially launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese light - truck tires, with the final result to be determined next year [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On May 21, 2025, the RU basis was - 70 yuan/ton (- 30), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 270 yuan/ton (- 70), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 6,188 yuan/ton (+ 157.65), the NR basis was 90 yuan/ton (+ 129). The price of whole latex was 14,750 yuan/ton (- 150), the price of mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton (- 50), and the price of 3L spot was 15,900 yuan/ton (- 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,780 US dollars/ton (- 10). - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 68.59 Thai baht/kg (- 3.00), the price of Thai latex was 62.75 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 54.20 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.20), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 8.55 Thai baht/kg (- 0.20). - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 59.88% (+ 18.19%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 71.21% (+ 24.50%). - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,342,455 tons (- 13,072), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 614,189 tons (- 4,504), the RU futures inventory was 200,270 tons (- 230), and the NR futures inventory was 70,257 tons (- 4,435) [3] Butadiene Rubber (BR) - Spot and spreads: On May 21, 2025, the BR basis was 200 yuan/ton (+ 70), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 10,500 yuan/ton (- 200), the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 12,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the market price of Zhejiang Transfar's BR9000 was 12,200 yuan/ton (- 100), the price of private - owned butadiene rubber in Shandong was 12,100 yuan/ton (- 100), and the import profit of butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 956 yuan/ton (- 100). - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 79.20% (+ 4.46%). - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 5,800 tons (+ 330), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,000 tons (+ 350) [3] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral view. The anti - dumping investigation by the EU has limited actual impact. The cost support for natural rubber is strong, and it is expected that the raw material output in the production areas will increase in June. The domestic basis has weakened slightly. After the profit of downstream tires is restored, it can offset part of the pressure of the increase in finished product inventory. It is expected that the operating rate of tire factories will perform well in the later stage. The overall supply and demand situation is expected to improve slightly, but the price is expected to fluctuate. For BR, maintain a neutral view. The supply pressure is small and the later - stage output will decrease. The demand is expected to improve, and the price has certain support, but attention should be paid to the price of upstream butadiene [4][5]

美国普加关税，亚洲地区轮胎成本优势未必下降 目前乘用车轮胎及轻卡轮胎在232关税项下，新增税率为25%，全钢胎当前税率为10%(后续是否加征对 等关税目前仍存在不确定性)。美国轮胎有三个来源，自产、高成本地区进口和低成本地区进口，进口 自低成本地区的轮胎由于价格较低，同样的加税比例，单条轮胎关税增加的绝对值比进口自高成本地区 的更低，这样意味着进口自低成本地区的轮胎相对高成本地区更有优势。 据美国国际贸易委员会(ITC)，2024年美国进口半钢胎均价62美元/条，其中来自泰国、柬埔寨、越南半 钢胎均价在40美元/条，2024年美国进口全钢胎均117美元/条，其中来自柬埔寨、越南全钢胎均价在80- 85美元/条左右。若考虑加征25%关税，我国轮胎与北美、日韩企业轮胎价差或进一步扩大，成本优势 持续巩固。 根据2022年情境预演，大部分关税将向客户传导2022年，海运费暴涨，泰国至美国的海运费单价14美 元/条半钢胎，占轮胎价格的比例高达44%，较2020年上升约30个百分点。同时，泰国半钢胎出口至美 国的反倾销税率初裁税率为17.08%。两项叠加，企业约等于承担了60%的关税损失，2022年森麒麟泰国 工厂净利 ...