Core Viewpoint - The significant rebound in exports in November is primarily supported by the easing of short-term supply disruptions rather than an improvement in external demand. Factors such as the "working day" effect and the reduction of "production rush" impacts contributed to this rebound [3][10][82]. Export Data Analysis - November exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, significantly up from -1.1% in October, indicating that supply factors played a more crucial role than external demand in recent export fluctuations. The increase in working days and the decline of production rush effects were key contributors to this rebound [2][10][82]. - Exports to emerging economies showed a notable recovery in November, with growth rates for Africa and Latin America rising by 17.1 and 12.8 percentage points to 27.7% and 15%, respectively, despite no significant improvement in demand from these regions [3][21][82]. Commodity Export Trends - The export growth of commodities that experienced significant fluctuations in the previous months showed a marked recovery in November. For instance, food, steel, and automotive parts saw their growth rates rebound by 34, 18.7, and 13.2 percentage points, respectively [4][29][83]. - Labor-intensive sectors such as consumer electronics and light industrial products also experienced a notable recovery in November, with consumer electronics exports increasing by 5.1 percentage points to 3.3% [4][83]. Import Data Insights - Imports in November rose by 1.9% year-on-year, with processing trade imports significantly rebounding by 9.2 percentage points to 13.9%, indicating that the easing of supply disruptions positively impacted trade performance [4][37][83]. - Major commodities like crude oil and electromechanical products also showed improvement in import growth rates, with crude oil imports increasing by 8.4 percentage points to 8.1% [4][37][83]. Future Outlook - The easing of supply disruptions, combined with ongoing improvements in external demand and China's competitive export advantages, is expected to support exports for the remainder of the year. The potential easing of tariffs between China and the U.S. and the continued industrialization in emerging markets may further bolster export opportunities [5][45][84]. - The resilience of machinery manufacturing exports over the past three months suggests that there remains room for improvement in exports, particularly in intermediate and capital goods [5][46][84]. Regular Tracking - November saw a general recovery in both exports and imports, with consumer electronics and light industrial products showing notable increases. The export growth rate for consumer electronics rose by 5.1 percentage points to 3.3%, driven by significant rebounds in mobile phones and LCD display modules [6][68][84]. - Capital goods exports displayed mixed results, with general machinery and medical instruments seeing growth, while automotive parts and integrated circuits also experienced increases in export growth rates [6][59][68].

Core Viewpoints - September exports showed strong growth due to a combination of low base effects and improved external demand [2][70] - The year-on-year export growth in September was 8.3%, significantly higher than the expected 5.7% and previous value of 4.4% [69][70] - Import growth also increased to 7.4% year-on-year, surpassing expectations of 1.4% [69][70] Export Analysis - The strong export performance in September was influenced by a low base from the previous year, with a 3.9 percentage point increase from August [2][70] - Exports to the EU rose by 3.8 percentage points to 14.3%, benefiting from last year's decline of 11.5% [2][70] - The global manufacturing PMI for September was 50.8, indicating resilience in external demand [2][70] Country-Specific Insights - Exports to the US improved, likely due to ongoing inventory replenishment cycles, with a 6.1 percentage point increase to -27% [2][70] - Exports to emerging economies increased by 4.2 percentage points to 15.8%, with exports to Africa surging by 30.5% [3][71] - Despite a decline in exports to ASEAN by 6.9% to 15.7%, overall growth remained robust [3][71] Import Dynamics - Imports of mechanical and electrical products showed significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 9.1% to 10.1% [3][31] - Key imports included crude oil (+22.8% to 7.7%) and soybeans (+23.5% to 14.6%), indicating improved domestic demand [3][31] - Processing trade imports also rose significantly, suggesting strong external demand and stability in overall exports [3][31] Future Outlook - While tariff fluctuations and base effects may disrupt exports, improved external demand and market share gains are expected to sustain high export levels [4][72] - Leading indicators for October, such as port freight volumes and export production chains, suggest continued strength in exports [4][72] - The ongoing trend of increasing import demand from emerging economies and a shift in market share towards China are likely to support future export resilience [4][72]