SDICSI 2026 年 1 月 16 日 李宁(2331.HK) 持续探索新店型，期待体育大年到来 事件：近日，李宁公布 2025 年 Q4 经营情况，全平台流水（不包括李宁 YOUNG） 录得低单位数下滑，其中线下渠道录得中单位数下滑，电商渠道增速持平。综 合考虑，我们预测 2025-2027 年 EPS 为 1.04/1.08/1.17 元，给予 2026 年 20 倍 PE，目标价 24 港元，维持"买入"评级。 流水表现仍有所承压，零售表现好于批发。由于整体消费较为疲软和竞争环境 激烈，25Q4 公司全平台流水（不包括李宁 YOUNG）同比录得低单位数下滑， 其中线下渠道（包括零售及批发）录得中单位数下滑，零售渠道录得低单位数 下滑，批发渠道录得中单位数下滑，零售好于年初预期，下半年加大了清货和 促销力度，使得零售表现好于批发；电商渠道持平，其中表现较好的渠道有抖 音（双位数增长）、京东（单位数增长）、唯品会（库存出清的重点渠道）。从不 同的品类来看，跑步录得中单位数增长，运动生活和篮球品类均录得负增长， 户外品类表现较好。库存和折扣方面，Q4 库销比为 4-5，保持健康水平，但折 扣同比和环比均 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Li Ning's overall retail revenue for Q2 2025 showed low single-digit growth year-on-year, with offline and e-commerce channels experiencing low single-digit decline and mid-single-digit growth respectively [1] - As of the end of Q2 2025, Li Ning's main brand store count reached 6,099, with a net increase of 11 stores compared to the previous quarter, but a net decrease of 18 stores compared to the end of the previous year [2] - The company signed NBA player Yang Hansheng, which is expected to boost basketball category sales, as basketball sales declined by 20% year-on-year in Q2 2025 [2] Group 2 - Li Ning plans to increase marketing and R&D investments related to the Olympics and technology in the second half of 2025 and into 2026, following its partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee [3] - The company deepened discounts in Q2 2025 to drive sales, and inventory levels improved with a sales-to-inventory ratio of around 4 months [3] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards, with net profits revised to 2.31 billion, 2.60 billion, and 2.93 billion respectively, while maintaining a "buy" rating based on long-term brand development potential [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to face challenges in sales in the second half of the year, with discounts and gross margins likely under pressure. However, the partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee is anticipated to enhance long-term brand development [7] - The company plans to increase marketing and R&D investments related to the Olympics and technology in the second half of the year [7] - The company has deepened discounts to boost sales, and inventory levels have improved, with a good inventory control [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue (in million RMB) is projected to be 27,598 in 2023, 28,676 in 2024, 28,834 in 2025, 30,529 in 2026, and 32,074 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.96%, 3.90%, 0.55%, 5.88%, and 5.06% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million RMB) is forecasted to be 3,187 in 2023, 3,013 in 2024, 2,313 in 2025, 2,598 in 2026, and 2,926 in 2027, with year-on-year changes of -21.58%, -5.46%, -23.24%, 12.31%, and 12.64% respectively [1] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be 1.23 in 2023, 1.17 in 2024, 0.89 in 2025, 1.00 in 2026, and 1.13 in 2027 [1] - The P/E ratios are projected to be 11.85 for 2023, 12.54 for 2024, 16.33 for 2025, 14.54 for 2026, and 12.91 for 2027 [1]