流水表现仍有所承压，零售表现好于批发。由于整体消费较为疲软和竞争环境激烈，25Q4 公司全平台 流水（不包括李宁YOUNG）同比录得低单位数下滑，其中线下渠道（包括零售及批发）录得中单位数 下滑，零售渠道录得低单位数下滑，批发渠道录得中单位数下滑，零售好于年初预期，下半年加大了清 货和促销力度，使得零售表现好于批发；电商渠道持平，其中表现较好的渠道有抖音（双位数增长）、 京东（单位数增长）、唯品会（库存出清的重点渠道）。从不同的品类来看，跑步录得中单位数增长， 运动生活和篮球品类均录得负增长，户外品类表现较好。库存和折扣方面，Q4 库销比为4-5，保持健康 水平，但折扣同比和环比均有低单位数加深，目前略深于6 折中段（口径包含奥莱等所有特卖渠道）， 主要是由于暖冬需要加大折扣来清库存。未来公司也会通过产品的调整优化来改善流水表现。 门店数量下降，新店型或将带来惊喜。截止12 月31 日，李宁大货（不包括李宁YOUNG）门店数量为 6091 个，较Q3 末净减少41 个，年初至今净减少26个，其中直营零售门店净减少59 个，批发门店净增 加33 个；童装门店数量1518 个，较Q3 末净增加38 个，年初至今净 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of 24 HKD, based on a 20x PE for 2026 [1][3][7]. Core Insights - Li Ning's overall platform revenue (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) experienced a low single-digit decline in Q4 2025, with offline channels seeing a mid-single-digit decline while e-commerce growth remained flat [2][3]. - The retail performance outperformed wholesale due to increased clearance and promotional efforts in the second half of the year, with notable growth in specific e-commerce channels like Douyin and JD [2]. - The introduction of new store formats, particularly the "Dragon Store," has been well-received, targeting consumers who value quality and brand prestige, indicating potential for future growth [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 28.941 billion RMB, 30.559 billion RMB, and 31.889 billion RMB, respectively, with expected EPS of 1.04, 1.08, and 1.17 RMB [5][11]. - The company anticipates a recovery in profitability with a projected net profit of 2.675 billion RMB in 2025, increasing to 2.787 billion RMB in 2026 and 3.006 billion RMB in 2027 [5][11]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 49.4% for the coming years, reflecting effective cost management [5][12].

Core Insights - Li Ning has officially launched its first outdoor store "COUNTERFLOW" in Beijing, marking a significant step in its outdoor market strategy [1][3] - The outdoor category is positioned to target the light outdoor mass market, focusing on hiking, camping, and urban commuting [3][6] - Li Ning aims to integrate professional outdoor protection with Eastern aesthetic expressions, enhancing its product competitiveness [4][6] Group 1 - The "COUNTERFLOW" store combines retail, experience, and community interaction, showcasing a full range of outdoor products [1] - The store features exclusive collections and a community corner for organizing outdoor activities, connecting urban outdoor enthusiasts [1][3] - Li Ning outdoor products leverage advanced technology, including a unique nano-technology for waterproofing, enhancing their functionality [4] Group 2 - Li Ning outdoor will become an independent category starting in early 2024, supported by the company's comprehensive resources [3][6] - The brand's strategy includes continuous innovation in professional technology and design, aiming to elevate outdoor lifestyles to a more mainstream and quality-focused level [6] - Li Ning's outdoor narrative is differentiated through the integration of Eastern elements in design and thematic events planned for 2024 and 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][2]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for Q2 2025, with revenue and profit growing by 18.4% and 40.8% year-on-year, respectively. The growth was driven by strong performance in cream and sauce products, as well as new product launches in the frozen baking segment [1][5]. - The company is expected to continue its multi-channel and multi-category development strategy, with stable raw material prices and improved cost management leading to further enhancements in net profit margins [1][5]. - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 370 million, 440 million, and 520 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 2.18, 2.57, and 3.05 yuan [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 2.07 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 170 million yuan, up 26.2% year-on-year [5][6]. - In Q2 2025, the company’s revenue was 1.02 billion yuan, with net profit reaching 82 million yuan, both showing strong year-on-year growth [5][6]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was reported at 30.7%, with a slight decrease of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising prices of certain raw materials [5][6]. Product and Channel Performance - The cream and sauce product lines saw robust growth, with cream products increasing by approximately 30% year-on-year. The frozen baking segment also contributed positively, with new product launches enhancing sales through membership and restaurant channels [1][5]. - The distribution channels showed varied performance, with traditional channels remaining stable while new channels experienced significant growth, particularly in supermarkets and innovative retail formats [5][6]. Future Outlook - The launch of a new cream product is anticipated to further enhance market share in the cream segment in H2 2025. Continuous innovation in product offerings is expected to drive sales growth [1][5]. - The company’s commitment to cost control and efficiency improvements is projected to sustain profitability and enhance net profit margins moving forward [1][5].

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning's mid-year performance report for 2025 shows a slight revenue growth of 3.3% year-on-year, but a significant decline in net profit by 10.99%, indicating challenges in the consumer market despite strategic investments in professional sports [1][3][19]. Financial Performance - Revenue reached 14.817 billion RMB, up from 14.345 billion RMB in the previous year [2] - Gross profit was 7.415 billion RMB, a 2.5% increase from 7.236 billion RMB [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.737 billion RMB, down 11% from 1.952 billion RMB [2][19] - EBITDA increased by 2.0% to 3.512 billion RMB [2] Market Position and Strategy - Li Ning's revenue growth is slower compared to competitors, with Xtep reporting a 7.1% increase and Anta expected to reach 13% [2][3] - The company aims to enhance its investment in sports, particularly in the mass sports sector, and has renewed its partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee [3][5] - Li Ning has signed contracts with multiple national teams and aims to leverage high-profile events to strengthen its brand positioning [6][9] Product Development and Sales - The company has expanded its product lines to include professional outdoor and lightweight outdoor categories, although these currently contribute a small portion of total revenue [6][8] - Running and basketball are the top two revenue-generating categories, with running sales increasing by 15% and basketball sales declining by 20% [9][10] - Li Ning has launched the Li Ning Running Club to promote a running ecosystem, integrating training resources and professional equipment [8] Challenges and Market Conditions - Despite growth in professional sports, Li Ning faces challenges in the mass consumer market, with declining foot traffic and increased discounts affecting sales [13][17] - The company reported a slight decrease in overall gross margin to 50.0% due to changes in product mix and discounting strategies [17] - Management remains cautious about future performance, anticipating stable revenue but potential pressure on profit margins due to rising costs [19]

Core Insights - Li Ning Company reported a revenue of 14.82 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [1] - The gross profit for the same period was 7.41 billion yuan, up 2.5%, with an overall gross margin of 50.0% [1] - Net profit reached 1.74 billion yuan, resulting in a net profit margin of 11.7% [1] Financial Performance - R&D investment increased by 8.7% year-on-year, with cumulative R&D spending exceeding 3.8 billion yuan over the past decade [1] - Professional product revenue accounted for over 60% of total revenue, with footwear products making up 56% of this segment [2] - Retail sales in the running category grew by 15%, with over 14 million pairs of professional running shoes sold across all channels [2] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on six core categories: running, basketball, cross-training, badminton, table tennis, and sports leisure, while also exploring new categories like outdoor sports, tennis, and pickleball [2] - Li Ning aims to enhance its product competitiveness and deepen collaboration with the Chinese Olympic Committee, focusing on quality improvement and solidifying its business foundation [3] - The company plans to maintain a "single brand, multiple categories, and multiple channels" strategy to drive sustainable growth [3] Operational Insights - As of June 30, 2025, the total number of Li Ning stores (including Li Ning brand and Li Ning YOUNG) reached 7,534 [3] - The company emphasizes a steady and pragmatic approach to business development, aiming for long-term health and sustainability [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HKD 19.2 for 2025, based on a 20x PE ratio [1][4][7]. Core Insights - Li Ning's overall platform revenue (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, with offline channels experiencing low single-digit decline while e-commerce channels saw mid-single-digit growth [2][4]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the running and fitness categories, both achieving high single-digit growth, while the basketball category faced a decline of over 20% due to market conditions [2][3]. - The company continues to optimize its channel structure, with a net decrease of 18 stores year-to-date, and plans to expand new store layouts as per strategy [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Li Ning are as follows: 2025E at RMB 28,698 million, 2026E at RMB 30,498 million, and 2027E at RMB 31,943 million, reflecting growth rates of 0.1%, 6.3%, and 4.7% respectively [5][12]. - The forecasted EPS for 2025 is RMB 0.88, with a decline in net profit expected to RMB 2,269 million, a decrease of 24.7% compared to the previous year [5][12]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable around 49.2% for 2025, with a slight increase to 49.5% by 2027 [5][13].