Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Since March, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have led to significant increases and large fluctuations in energy and chemical products such as crude oil and shipping. Against this backdrop, combined with capital and the strong fundamental situation of Zhengzhou cotton, the cotton price has experienced increased intraday fluctuations but generally shown a strong upward trend. The main contract reached a new stage high of 15,725 yuan/ton this week. In the medium to long term, the cotton planting area is expected to decline in 2026, and the supply-demand situation will improve, so there is still room for cotton prices to rise. The extent of the increase depends on the new cotton planting area [3]. - The USDA report is slightly bearish. Globally, mainly due to the increase in production in Brazil and China, the global cotton production forecast has been raised by over 1.13 million bales; the consumption in multiple countries has been lowered, resulting in a month-on-month decrease of 140,000 bales in global cotton consumption; the global ending stocks forecast has been raised by 1.28 million bales. In China, the production forecast has been raised by 500,000 bales to 35.5 million bales; at the same time, the consumption has also been raised by 500,000 bales, and after offsetting each other, the ending stocks forecast remains the same as last month. As of March 10, the national cotton inspection volume was 7.5 million bales, 220,000 tons less than the USDA's March production forecast. Currently, the inspection of new cotton in China is coming to an end, and it is expected that there will be little change in the production adjustment in the later stage [3]. - In the United States, the key data of production, consumption, exports, and ending stocks remain the same as last month. As the new cotton planting season approaches, the market is concerned about the new cotton planting area, and attention should be paid to the planting intention data released by the USDA at the end of the month [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply and Demand Data - **Global**: Beginning stocks are 7.376 billion bales, production is 12.099 billion bales, imports are 4.391 billion bales, consumption is 11.858 billion bales, exports are 4.391 billion bales, and ending stocks are 7.639 billion bales. Month-on-month, production increased by 113 million bales, imports increased by 20 million bales, consumption decreased by 14 million bales, exports increased by 20 million bales, and ending stocks increased by 128 million bales. Year-on-year, beginning stocks increased by 46 million bales, production increased by 245 million bales, imports increased by 88 million bales, consumption decreased by 36 million bales, exports increased by 150 million bales, and ending stocks increased by 263 million bales [7]. - **China**: Beginning stocks are 3.484 billion bales, production is 3.55 billion bales, imports are 560 million bales, consumption is 3.95 billion bales, exports are 8 million bales, and ending stocks are 3.636 billion bales. Month-on-month, production increased by 50 million bales, and consumption increased by 50 million bales. Year-on-year, beginning stocks decreased by 187.6 million bales, production increased by 350 million bales, imports increased by 41.5 million bales, consumption increased by 50 million bales, exports increased by 1.4 million bales, and ending stocks increased by 152.5 million bales [7]. - **United States**: Beginning stocks are 400 million bales, production is 1.392 billion bales, imports are 1 million bales, consumption is 160 million bales, exports are 1.2 billion bales, and ending stocks are 440 million bales. Month-on-month and year-on-year, all data remain unchanged [7]. - **India**: Beginning stocks are 922 million bales, production is 2.35 billion bales, imports are 400 million bales, consumption is 2.5 billion bales, exports are 140 million bales, and ending stocks are 1.032 billion bales. Month-on-month, imports increased by 80 million bales, and ending stocks increased by 80 million bales. Year-on-year, beginning stocks decreased by 8.4 million bales, production increased by 30 million bales, imports increased by 95.9 million bales, exports increased by 7.5 million bales, and ending stocks increased by 110 million bales [7]. Inventory Situation - As of the end of February, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.477 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 312,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of nearly 40,000 tons. In the context of a significant increase in cotton production this year, the year-on-year decrease in commercial inventory indicates that overall cotton consumption (sales) has performed well in the past period. Regionally, the commercial cotton inventory in Xinjiang warehouses has decreased rapidly. At the end of February, the commercial cotton inventory in Xinjiang warehouses was 4.07 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 386,000 tons, the highest decline rate in the same period in recent years; a year-on-year decrease of 270,000 tons, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [5]. - As of last Friday, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 12,791; the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 387 [64]. Price and Market Trends - The price of the active cotton contract has shown an upward trend. From March 6 to March 13, 2026, the price of the ZCE active contract increased from 15,295 yuan/ton to 15,415 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton; the price of the ICE active contract increased from 64.21 cents/pound to 65.8 cents/pound, an increase of 1.59 cents/pound [9]. - The prices of imported cotton and imported yarn have also increased. From March 6 to March 13, 2026, the price of US EMOT M increased from 73.80 cents/pound to 75.00 cents/pound, and the price of Brazilian M increased from 72.40 cents/pound to 73.60 cents/pound. The prices of Indian C32S, Vietnamese C32S, and Indonesian C32S imported yarns all increased by 130 - 140 yuan/ton [14][15]. - The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has been widening. Last Friday, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the port delivery price index of imported cotton under the sliding duty was 33 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of -73 yuan/ton; the price difference with the port delivery price of imported cotton under the 1% tariff was 76 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of -3 yuan/ton. The price difference between the C32S yarn price index and the port delivery price was 3,121 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 4,230 yuan/ton [52]. - On the futures market, last Friday, the price difference between the Zhengzhou yarn main contract and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was 6,150 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 240 yuan/ton; the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32-count pure cotton yarn was -2,227 yuan/ton, and the loss increased by 155 yuan/ton week-on-week [57]. Market Activity and Consumption - As of the week ending March 5, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 57,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 68%, a decrease of 8% compared with the four-week average, and a year-on-year decrease of 7%. Among them, Vietnam signed 26,400 tons and Bangladesh signed 6,400 tons [26]. - The textile and clothing export volume and domestic retail sales in China show certain trends, but specific data and analysis are presented in the form of charts in the report [35]. - The production and circulation prosperity indexes of the Keqiao textile industry also show certain trends, but specific data and analysis are presented in the form of charts in the report [39].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - The cotton market is expected to maintain a volatile trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2605 closed at 14,680 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.20%, and its night - session closed at 14,655 yuan/ton with a decrease of 0.17%. CY2603 closed at 20,450 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.17%, and its night - session closed at the same price. ICE US cotton 3 was at 62.22 cents/pound with a decrease of 0.13%. The trading volume of CF2605 was 319,129 lots, a decrease of 128,522 lots from the previous day, and its open interest was 1,022,636 lots, an increase of 10,863 lots. The trading volume of CY2603 was 3,086 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and its open interest was 3,653 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,438, an increase of 38, and the effective forecast was 1,369, a decrease of 3. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 7, a decrease of 7 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,714 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan or 0.19% from the previous day. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,580 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan or 0.19%. The price in Shandong was 16,056 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan or 0.07%. The price in Hebei was 16,093 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan or 0.17%. The 3128B index was 16,002 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan or 0.09%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,455 yuan/ton, unchanged. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan or - 0.02% [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF3 - 5 spread was 70 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan from the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall trading of cotton spot was fair, with low - basis transactions being better and the basis being generally stable. Some cotton merchants raised the basis by about 20 [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading activity in the pure - cotton yarn market gradually decreased, and the price remained stable. As more downstream enterprises took holidays, inland spinning enterprises mainly focused on fulfilling existing orders and arranging the Spring Festival holiday. The low - price supply of conventional yarn categories decreased, and the trading of low - count yarn was light. The spot market of imported yarn had relatively smooth sales, with partial trading being good, but overall it was more on the dull side [2] - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures continued to decline. The situation of the near - month contract was similar to that of the same period last year, with high short - term delivery pressure and technical selling pressure. The market continued to focus on US cotton export data and Brazilian planting conditions to seek fundamental support [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 1, indicating a "neutral" state. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [5]