1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the text. 2. Core Views of the Report - International cotton market: This week, the macro - face and geopolitics in the international market caused significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, boosting cotton prices. However, the USDA March supply - demand report was bearish, with increased cotton production in Brazil and China. Also, the recent weak US cotton exports were unfavorable to cotton prices. Geopolitical uncertainties and a stronger US dollar restricted raw material demand, leading to high - level volatile cotton prices [8]. - Domestic cotton market: This week, Zhengzhou cotton prices fluctuated and declined at high levels due to increased domestic import supply. But the rising cost of cotton substitutes like polyester staple fiber and domestic cost support, along with the policy of reducing cotton - planting area, were long - term bullish factors, keeping cotton prices at a relatively high level [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market行情概述 3.1.1 This Week's Important Information at Home and Abroad - International news: Iran's attack on Persian Gulf energy facilities led to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, worsening the global energy supply outlook and causing significant oil price fluctuations. US economic data, such as the New York Fed manufacturing index and the Michigan consumer confidence index, showed mixed trends. The Indian Cotton Association adjusted its cotton import, production, and inventory forecasts. Brazil's cotton exports in the first two weeks of March increased by 37% compared to the daily average in March last year. The USDA's monthly supply - demand report showed an increase in global cotton production and a decrease in consumption. US cotton export sales decreased [5]. - Domestic news: The national commercial cotton inventory decreased, while the port inventory increased. The spinning mills' cotton inventory decreased. The 2026/27 Xinjiang cotton target - price area regulation target was set at about 36 million mu, a reduction of over 10% from the previous year. China's cotton imports in February increased by 44.1% year - on - year, and the government issued 300,000 tons of sliding - scale duty processing trade quotas in March [5]. 3.1.2 Market Price Situation - Futures prices: The NYBOT 2 - cotton futures closing price increased by 2.34%, the Cotlook A index rose by 3.30%, the Zhengzhou cotton main - contract price decreased by 1.30%, and the China Cotton Price Index decreased by 1.18%. The China Imported Cotton Price Index increased by 3.72%, and the China Yarn Price Index increased by 0.45%. - Import profit: Cotton spot and futures import profits decreased by 16.52% and 24.24% respectively, and the yarn import profit decreased. - Basis: The cotton and yarn basis were relatively strong, with increases of 10.05% and 135.85% respectively [6]. 3.1.3 Supply - Demand Factor Situation - International market: Global cotton production, inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio remained unchanged but were expected to increase. US cotton weekly export net sales decreased by 22.31% but were expected to increase [7]. - Domestic market: China's cotton production remained unchanged but was expected to decrease. The commercial inventory decreased by 1.85%, imports increased by 88.89%, downstream开工率 increased by 1.24%, and textile exports decreased by 19.85% [7]. 3.1.4 This Week's Views and Strategies - International cotton market: Geopolitical and macro factors boosted cotton prices, but the bearish supply - demand report and weak US exports restricted price increases. - Domestic cotton market: Import pressure led to price fluctuations, but cost support and policy expectations were bullish. - Technical analysis: Zhengzhou cotton showed high - level volatile adjustment. - Strategy: It is advisable to buy at low prices and conduct short - term rolling operations [8]. 3.2 Spot Market Price and Spread 3.2.1 Spot Cotton and Yarn Price Trends - Cotton spot prices were strong at high levels, imported cotton prices continued to rebound significantly, and yarn prices were firm [15]. 3.2.2 Cotton and Yarn Basis - This week, the cotton basis fluctuated greatly and remained strong, while the yarn basis was strong and volatile [17]. 3.2.3 Cotton and Yarn Domestic - Foreign Spreads - Cotton import profit decreased but was still relatively strong, while yarn import profit decreased sharply [20]. 3.3 International Cotton Market Supply - Demand Data 3.3.1 USDA Supply - Demand Data (March) - Global cotton production and ending inventory were increased, and demand was decreased [24]. 3.3.2 International Market: US Upland Cotton Weekly Exports - US upland cotton weekly exports decreased compared to the previous period [27]. 3.4 Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand and Industry Data 3.4.1 Domestic Cotton Market: March Supply - Demand Report - The March supply - demand report from the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was unchanged, while the USDA increased China's cotton production and ending inventory [31]. 3.4.2 Domestic Cotton Market: Inventory Situation - The commercial inventory continued to decline rapidly, and the port inventory was rising [35]. 3.4.3 Domestic Cotton Market: Import Situation - Cotton imports increased month - on - month, but the overall import volume was still weak, and annual imports were expected to increase slightly [38]. 3.4.4 Domestic Textile Enterprises: Operating Conditions - The operating rate of domestic textile enterprises continued to increase, yarn inventory was quickly digested, raw material inventory procurement accelerated, and the overall processing profit loss decreased [42][45]. 3.4.5 Domestic Cotton Spinning and Textile Exports - Cotton spinning imports decreased month - on - month, and textile exports in January - February were still relatively strong [48]. 3.5 Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB exchange rate was still appreciating, and the US dollar index rose significantly this week due to geopolitical factors [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Since March, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have led to significant increases and large fluctuations in energy and chemical products such as crude oil and shipping. Against this backdrop, combined with capital and the strong fundamental situation of Zhengzhou cotton, the cotton price has experienced increased intraday fluctuations but generally shown a strong upward trend. The main contract reached a new stage high of 15,725 yuan/ton this week. In the medium to long term, the cotton planting area is expected to decline in 2026, and the supply-demand situation will improve, so there is still room for cotton prices to rise. The extent of the increase depends on the new cotton planting area [3]. - The USDA report is slightly bearish. Globally, mainly due to the increase in production in Brazil and China, the global cotton production forecast has been raised by over 1.13 million bales; the consumption in multiple countries has been lowered, resulting in a month-on-month decrease of 140,000 bales in global cotton consumption; the global ending stocks forecast has been raised by 1.28 million bales. In China, the production forecast has been raised by 500,000 bales to 35.5 million bales; at the same time, the consumption has also been raised by 500,000 bales, and after offsetting each other, the ending stocks forecast remains the same as last month. As of March 10, the national cotton inspection volume was 7.5 million bales, 220,000 tons less than the USDA's March production forecast. Currently, the inspection of new cotton in China is coming to an end, and it is expected that there will be little change in the production adjustment in the later stage [3]. - In the United States, the key data of production, consumption, exports, and ending stocks remain the same as last month. As the new cotton planting season approaches, the market is concerned about the new cotton planting area, and attention should be paid to the planting intention data released by the USDA at the end of the month [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply and Demand Data - **Global**: Beginning stocks are 7.376 billion bales, production is 12.099 billion bales, imports are 4.391 billion bales, consumption is 11.858 billion bales, exports are 4.391 billion bales, and ending stocks are 7.639 billion bales. Month-on-month, production increased by 113 million bales, imports increased by 20 million bales, consumption decreased by 14 million bales, exports increased by 20 million bales, and ending stocks increased by 128 million bales. Year-on-year, beginning stocks increased by 46 million bales, production increased by 245 million bales, imports increased by 88 million bales, consumption decreased by 36 million bales, exports increased by 150 million bales, and ending stocks increased by 263 million bales [7]. - **China**: Beginning stocks are 3.484 billion bales, production is 3.55 billion bales, imports are 560 million bales, consumption is 3.95 billion bales, exports are 8 million bales, and ending stocks are 3.636 billion bales. Month-on-month, production increased by 50 million bales, and consumption increased by 50 million bales. Year-on-year, beginning stocks decreased by 187.6 million bales, production increased by 350 million bales, imports increased by 41.5 million bales, consumption increased by 50 million bales, exports increased by 1.4 million bales, and ending stocks increased by 152.5 million bales [7]. - **United States**: Beginning stocks are 400 million bales, production is 1.392 billion bales, imports are 1 million bales, consumption is 160 million bales, exports are 1.2 billion bales, and ending stocks are 440 million bales. Month-on-month and year-on-year, all data remain unchanged [7]. - **India**: Beginning stocks are 922 million bales, production is 2.35 billion bales, imports are 400 million bales, consumption is 2.5 billion bales, exports are 140 million bales, and ending stocks are 1.032 billion bales. Month-on-month, imports increased by 80 million bales, and ending stocks increased by 80 million bales. Year-on-year, beginning stocks decreased by 8.4 million bales, production increased by 30 million bales, imports increased by 95.9 million bales, exports increased by 7.5 million bales, and ending stocks increased by 110 million bales [7]. Inventory Situation - As of the end of February, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.477 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 312,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of nearly 40,000 tons. In the context of a significant increase in cotton production this year, the year-on-year decrease in commercial inventory indicates that overall cotton consumption (sales) has performed well in the past period. Regionally, the commercial cotton inventory in Xinjiang warehouses has decreased rapidly. At the end of February, the commercial cotton inventory in Xinjiang warehouses was 4.07 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 386,000 tons, the highest decline rate in the same period in recent years; a year-on-year decrease of 270,000 tons, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [5]. - As of last Friday, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 12,791; the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 387 [64]. Price and Market Trends - The price of the active cotton contract has shown an upward trend. From March 6 to March 13, 2026, the price of the ZCE active contract increased from 15,295 yuan/ton to 15,415 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton; the price of the ICE active contract increased from 64.21 cents/pound to 65.8 cents/pound, an increase of 1.59 cents/pound [9]. - The prices of imported cotton and imported yarn have also increased. From March 6 to March 13, 2026, the price of US EMOT M increased from 73.80 cents/pound to 75.00 cents/pound, and the price of Brazilian M increased from 72.40 cents/pound to 73.60 cents/pound. The prices of Indian C32S, Vietnamese C32S, and Indonesian C32S imported yarns all increased by 130 - 140 yuan/ton [14][15]. - The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has been widening. Last Friday, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the port delivery price index of imported cotton under the sliding duty was 33 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of -73 yuan/ton; the price difference with the port delivery price of imported cotton under the 1% tariff was 76 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of -3 yuan/ton. The price difference between the C32S yarn price index and the port delivery price was 3,121 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 4,230 yuan/ton [52]. - On the futures market, last Friday, the price difference between the Zhengzhou yarn main contract and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was 6,150 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 240 yuan/ton; the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32-count pure cotton yarn was -2,227 yuan/ton, and the loss increased by 155 yuan/ton week-on-week [57]. Market Activity and Consumption - As of the week ending March 5, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 57,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 68%, a decrease of 8% compared with the four-week average, and a year-on-year decrease of 7%. Among them, Vietnam signed 26,400 tons and Bangladesh signed 6,400 tons [26]. - The textile and clothing export volume and domestic retail sales in China show certain trends, but specific data and analysis are presented in the form of charts in the report [35]. - The production and circulation prosperity indexes of the Keqiao textile industry also show certain trends, but specific data and analysis are presented in the form of charts in the report [39].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that cotton futures prices on the ICE are experiencing fluctuations, with a slight increase observed on January 29, 2023, where the price opened at 63.73 cents per pound and reached a high of 63.83 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.16% increase [1] Group 2 - On January 28, 2023, the opening price of U.S. cotton was 63.77 cents per pound, with a closing price of 63.95 cents per pound, marking a 0.31% increase [2] - The average price of Xinjiang 3128 cotton delivered to factories was 15,884 yuan per ton, an increase of 415 yuan per ton [2] - The price of Xinjiang 32s pure cotton yarn remained stable at 22,100 yuan per ton, while spinning profit decreased to 192.24 yuan per ton, down by 473.10 yuan per ton [2] - As of January 27, 2026, the cumulative amount of cotton inspected nationwide for the new season reached 7.1952 million tons, an increase of 812,500 tons year-on-year [2] - In Brazil's Mato Grosso state, the cotton planting progress improved by 19 percentage points to 48% as of January 23, compared to 29% in the same period last year [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton futures fluctuated following the price of Chinese cotton, rising at the beginning of the week and falling later. The report maintains the judgment that Zhengzhou cotton futures will fluctuate with a slight upward trend and waits for the determination of phased support [1][2][17] - It is recommended to trade the target price subsidy policy for the next three years and the output of the new year after the Spring Festival, considering the demand situation [2][17] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - ICE Cotton Main Continuous: Open price 64.30, high price 65.76, low price 64.24, close price 64.48, change 0.47, change rate 0.73%, trading volume 152,672 lots, trading volume change 76,763 lots, open interest 171,048 lots, open interest change -6,364 lots [5] - Zhengzhou Cotton Main Continuous: Open price 14,600, high price 15,095, low price 14,515, close price 14,675, change 90, change rate 0.62%, trading volume 2,666,762 lots, trading volume change 1,519,133 lots, open interest 848,986 lots, open interest change -11,739 lots [5] - Cotton Yarn Main Continuous: Open price 20,590, high price 21,200, low price 20,500, close price 20,690, change 105, change rate 0.51%, trading volume 57,242 lots, trading volume change 20,545 lots, open interest 16,816 lots, open interest change -2,774 lots [5] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton futures rose and then fell this week, mainly following the price of Chinese cotton. At the beginning of the week, the sharp rise in Chinese cotton futures and spot prices widened the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton, driving some funds to buy ICE cotton futures, which once reached 65.76 cents per pound. In the second half of the week, as Chinese cotton futures fell, the weekly US cotton export data was poor, and the US dollar strengthened, ICE cotton futures also declined, returning to around 64.5 cents per pound [1][5] - As of the week ending January 1, 2026, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 22,200 tons, a 27% decrease from the previous week and a 49% decrease from the four - week average. The weekly signing volume of 2026/27 US upland cotton was 5,100 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 34,900 tons, an increase of 9% from the previous week and 18% from the four - week average. The total signing volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 1.5425 million tons, accounting for 59% of the annual forecasted export volume (2.61 million tons); the cumulative export shipment volume was 710,400 tons, accounting for 46% of the annual total signing volume [6] - India: The import tariff on cotton has been restored since January 1, 2026, with a comprehensive tax rate of 11%, causing the cotton price to rise [7] - Brazil: In December, the export volume of raw cotton reached 452,000 tons, setting a new monthly export record. From July to December, the export volume of raw cotton was 1.532 million tons, an 11% increase from the same period last year and a 28% increase from the same period in the previous production season. As of January 3, the national cotton planting progress was about 31%, about 6 percentage points higher than the previous week and slightly faster than the same period last year [8] - Pakistan: The export demand for yarn has improved. The total cotton output this year is expected to be in the range of 7 - 7.25 million bales. The domestic cotton market trading is light, and the supply of high - quality cotton is tight. The price and demand in the domestic yarn market have shown a mild recovery [8] - Bangladesh: In December, the export value of ready - made garments was $3.23 billion, a 3% increase from November but a 14% decrease from the same period last year. The cumulative export value in the first six months of this fiscal year was $19.4 billion, a 3% decrease from the same period in the 2024/25 fiscal year. The textile mills are still under pressure due to energy supply shortages, high raw material costs, and low corporate profits [9][10] Domestic Cotton Situation - The price of domestic cotton futures and spot first rose and then fell. The trading volume of cotton spot improved compared with last week. The one - price of cotton spot first rose and then fell with Zhengzhou cotton, and the sales basis of spot remained stable overall [11] - As of January 9, there were 7,388 registered warehouse receipts and 2,299 forecast warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 9,687 receipts, equivalent to 406,854 tons [11] - The prices of cotton yarn and grey cloth increased, but the trading volume was average. The market for pure cotton yarn was mainly for rigid demand. The demand for high - count combed yarn was good, while the demand for medium - and low - count yarn was insufficient. The price of pure cotton yarn increased, but the increase could only cover 50% - 60% of the increase in cotton price. The opening rate of inland spinning mills continued to decline, and the inventory accumulated; the opening rate of Xinjiang spinning mills remained high, and the inventory pressure was relatively small. The price of the full - cotton grey cloth market increased, but the actual trading was difficult to follow up [12] 3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 basic data charts, including cotton sales progress, cotton commercial inventory, spinning mill cotton inventory, etc., with data sources from mysteel and tteb [14][15][16] 4. Operational Suggestions - Maintain the judgment that Zhengzhou cotton futures will fluctuate with a slight upward trend and wait for the determination of phased support. It is recommended to trade the target price subsidy policy for the next three years and the output of the new year after the Spring Festival, considering the demand situation [17]

Market Overview - The Brazil CEPEA/ESALQ cotton price index reported at 65.72 cents per pound, an increase of 0.81% from the previous day and 3.81% from the same period last month [1] - As of January 3, Brazil's cotton planting rate reached 31.2%, up from 25.1% the previous week and slightly above last year's 30.5%, with a five-year average of 20.9% [1] Cost Analysis - The total cost of planting machine-harvested cotton in Northern Xinjiang for 2025 is projected to be 2962 yuan per mu, a decrease of 40 yuan per mu year-on-year, representing a reduction of 1.3% [1] Institutional Insights - According to Wenkang Futures, the reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang was anticipated by the market, and the recent rise in Zheng cotton prices may lead to increased price volatility. The supply-demand relationship is currently balanced, with increased downstream operating rates and limited imports, suggesting a favorable outlook for potential buying opportunities [3] - Micron Futures noted that the cotton market is maintaining a strong oscillating trend, influenced by surrounding commodity markets. There is optimism regarding textile exports and domestic sales, but breaking through the current price range will require validation of consumption in the new year and confirmation of supply conditions [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Cotton and Cotton Yarn Weekly Report - Cotton Prices Fluctuate, Pay Attention to Upper Pressure [1] - Date: December 5, 2025 [1] Group 2: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 2.1 Core Contradictions - As of December 4, 2025, the cumulative national new - season cotton notarized inspection volume was 4.6436 million tons, with the average daily notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton around 80,000 tons. There is still hedging pressure on the futures market. Spot basis quotes have slightly decreased, while fixed - price quotes remain firm [2]. - Downstream overall load is stable, spinners' profits are acceptable, and finished - product inventory pressure is not large. Yarn sales are better than grey fabric sales, and spinners have a rigid demand for replenishing cotton inventory. Follow - up orders need attention [2]. 2.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Near - term Trading Logic**: New cotton is accelerating onto the market, but the downstream has resilience. Despite being in the traditional off - season, some sectors have good orders and spinners maintain certain profits. As long as the final cotton output does not increase unexpectedly, the downside space for cotton prices is limited. Pay attention to whether the hedging pressure around 13,800 can be broken [4]. - **Long - term Trading Logic**: In recent years, domestic downstream textile production capacity has expanded significantly. Xinjiang spinning mills maintain high - load operation, increasing the rigid consumption of cotton raw materials. Sino - US trade expectations are gradually improving. Although domestic cotton production has increased significantly, imports are still needed to fill the gap. The total 1% import tariff quota for cotton in 2026 remains at 894,000 tons, and with the additional 200,000 - ton sliding - scale quota, the total new - season import quota is still relatively low. The probability of further increasing the cotton import quota is low, so the domestic cotton supply - demand may remain tight in the new season. Pay attention to the demand side under the influence of new - season policy changes [15][16]. 2.3 Strategy Recommendations for Industrial Customers - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range for cotton is predicted to be between 13,500 and 14,000. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.0542, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 0.0365 [18]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2605) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 13,900 - 14,000. They can also sell call options (CF605C14000) to collect premiums and reduce costs, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 200 - 250 [18]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2605) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 13,400 - 13,500. They can also sell put options (CF601P13400) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 250 - 300 [18]. 2.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Data**: Zhengzhou cotton 01 closed at 13,750, up 25 (0.18%); Zhengzhou cotton 05 closed at 13,720, up 35 (0.26%); Zhengzhou cotton 09 closed at 13,855, up 65 (0.47%) [19]. - **Spot Data**: CC Index 3128B was at 15,022, up 126 (0.85%); CC Index 2227B was at 13,165, up 148 (1.14%); CC Index 2129B was at 15,290, up 148 (0.98%) [19]. - **Spread Data**: CF1 - 5 spread was 30, down 10; CF5 - 9 spread was - 135, down 30; CF9 - 1 spread was 105, up 40 [20]. - **Import Price**: FC Index M was at 12,853, down 82 (- 0.63%); FCY Index C32s was at 21,116, up 19 (0.09%) [20]. - **Cotton Yarn Data**: The futures price was 20,005, down 85 (- 0.42%); the现货 price was 20,770, up 30 (0.14%) [20]. Group 3: Weekly Information and Upcoming Events 3.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: - As of November 27, the national new - cotton picking progress was 99.6%, the same as last year and 0.1 percentage points higher than the four - year average; the national delivery rate was 98.5%, 1.0 percentage points higher than last year and 2.2 percentage points higher than the four - year average; the national processing rate was 72.5%, 3.3 percentage points higher than last year and 9.8 percentage points higher than the four - year average; the national sales rate was 33.2%, 18.9 percentage points higher than last year and 22.1 percentage points higher than the four - year average [20]. - In October, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles in China were 147.1 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 19.54% and a year - on - year increase of 9.21% [21]. - As of October 23, 2025, the cumulative net signed export volume of US cotton for the 2025/26 season was 1.137 million tons, accounting for 42.81% of the annual expected export volume, and the cumulative shipped volume was 398,000 tons, with a shipping rate of 34.98% [21]. - As of November 30, 2025, the cumulative new - season seed cotton listing volume in Pakistan, converted to lint cotton, was about 796,000 tons, an increase of 43,000 tons from the previous two weeks and a 1.1% decrease compared to the same period last year [21]. - **Negative Information**: - In October 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 22.262 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.59% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.84%. Textile exports were 11.258 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 9.05% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.92%; clothing exports were 11.004 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 15.93% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.64% [22]. - As of November 15, the total national cotton industrial and commercial inventory was 4.5711 million tons, an increase of 752,300 tons from the end of October. Commercial inventory was 3.6397 million tons, an increase of 709,100 tons from the end of October, and industrial inventory was 931,400 tons, an increase of 43,200 tons from the end of October [22]. - In October 2025, the export volume of cotton products was 608,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.36% and a month - on - month increase of 0.98%. The export value was 4.678 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 17.09% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.12%. The export unit price was 7.69 US dollars per kilogram, a year - on - year decrease of 15.96% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.13% [22]. 3.2 Next Week's Important Events - The cotton harvest in Xinjiang is basically completed. Pay attention to the processing and final output of Xinjiang cotton [23]. - Follow up on US cotton export data and the adjustment of the December USDA Global Cotton Supply and Demand Report [23]. Group 4: Disk Interpretation 4.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: This week, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated around 13,700 - 13,800 yuan/ton. The downward movement was mainly driven by long - position exits rather than short - position increases. Market trading was cautious, and the hedging pressure around 13,800 was obvious [31]. - **Month - spread Structure**: The cotton 1 - 5 spread still shows a slight back structure, but after the 05 contract, it maintains a contango structure, indicating an expectation of tight supply - demand at the end of the year [34]. - **Basis Structure**: This week, the cotton basis slightly decreased. The fixed - price quotes for hand - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang (3130/30B/impurity within 2) and machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang (3130/29 - 30B/impurity within 3.5) are around 14,800 - 14,950 (on a legal weight basis). The spot sales basis for the same - quality cotton is mostly in the range of CF01 + 1100 - 1250, and the basis in the 1000 - 1100 range slightly increased this week [36]. Group 5: Valuation and Profit Analysis 5.1 Downstream Spinning Profit Tracking - Supported by policies and technological innovation, Xinjiang spinning mills have a significant cost advantage over those in the inland. Xinjiang spinning has always maintained certain profits, while inland mills were basically slightly loss - making in the third quarter. Since September, due to the hedging pressure from ginning mills and the supply pressure of new cotton, domestic cotton prices have declined, while yarn spot prices have been relatively stable, significantly repairing domestic spinners' profits. This week, cotton spot prices continued to rise slightly, while yarn prices were relatively stable, and spinners' profits narrowed compared to last week [38]. 5.2 Import Profit Tracking - China is a large cotton - importing country. Affected by the Xinjiang cotton ban and tariff policies, domestic and foreign cotton prices move relatively independently. This year, China's cotton import profit has been considerable, but the import quota is currently low, and the domestic cotton import volume remains at a low level. In October 2025, China's cotton import volume was 90,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons. The cumulative cotton import volume in the 2025/26 season was 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.4%. This week, foreign cotton prices trended weakly, and China's cotton import profit slightly increased [40]. Group 6: Supply and Inventory Projection 6.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - The new - season cotton harvest in Xinjiang is basically completed. With the progress of new - cotton procurement, the expected output of Xinjiang cotton has been slightly revised upwards again, indicating a bumper harvest. In terms of imports, the National Development and Reform Commission has issued an additional 200,000 - ton sliding - scale quota, and together with the 894,000 - ton 1% tariff quota issued in 2026, the new - season cotton import volume is tentatively estimated at 1.1 million tons. Given the domestic bumper harvest and the unchanged Sino - US situation, the probability of further increasing the sliding - scale quota is currently low. On the downstream side, domestic demand may maintain a moderate recovery. Although it is currently the traditional off - season, some textile and clothing sectors have good orders. On the export side, although there are no "rush - to - export" orders, with the further relaxation of Sino - US trade, domestic cotton consumption expectations are still supported [44].

Report Overview - Report title: [Galaxy Research] Investigation Report on Cotton Planting and Inventory in Northern Xinjiang (II) [2] - Report date: June 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [7] Research Background - The cotton planting area will continue to increase in the 2025/26 season, and the report aims to understand the change in Xinjiang's cotton output [3] - Xinjiang's spinning capacity is approaching 30 million spindles and still expanding, and the report wants to know the operation of textile enterprises under the deteriorating international trade environment [3] - With the accelerating出库 speed of Xinjiang cotton, the report intends to find out the real inventory situation due to concerns about tight supply during the off - season before new cotton is on the market [3] Research Route - Urumqi - Wujiaqu - Shihezi - Kuitun - Jinghe [4] Research Findings Spinning Enterprise D - Enterprise situation: It has a capacity of about 100,000 spindles, two processing workshops (self - operated and contract - processing), 30 - 50 employees, mainly produces pure - cotton yarn C32S and C40S, and the processing fee is 4000 - 5000 yuan/ton with different varieties having different fees [6] - Startup situation: Its textile machines in Xinjiang are mostly running, while its inland spinning mills operate during off - peak hours at night as many inland spinning machines are shut down [8] - Inventory: Since it mainly does contract - processing, its cotton and yarn inventories are small [9] - Order situation: Orders are average, and the high impurity in cotton affects yarn quality [9] - Market outlook: The downstream market is average, cotton prices may have small fluctuations. The enthusiasm of ginning factories in Northern Xinjiang to lease factories is low, and some have the idea of selling off, showing less confidence than in previous years [9] Warehouse E - Enterprise situation: It has a storage capacity of about 150,000 tons [10] - Cotton inventory: The incoming volume this year accounts for about 50% of the total capacity. The peak outgoing volume can reach 2000 tons/day, with peak periods after the Spring Festival and in April. The outgoing speed has slowed down recently, and the remaining inventory is small, with most goods owned by large enterprises and little by private enterprises [10] Warehouse F - Enterprise and inventory situation: It has a small storage capacity of 40,000 - 50,000 tons, and the remaining cotton inventory is low. The outgoing speed has slowed down recently. The cotton outgoing progress this year is slightly faster than last year, with 20+ trucks per day during the peak last year and 3 - 4 trucks per day recently [11] Warehouse G - Enterprise and inventory situation: It is a large warehouse with a capacity of 400,000 - 500,000 tons. The incoming volume this year is slightly less, about 300,000 - 350,000 tons. It still has some inventory, and the outgoing speed has slowed down recently after being fast after the Spring Festival and maintaining a basic volume in March and April [12] - Other: The new cotton is growing well, and the output in the new season may not change much compared to this season. Some ginning factories in Northern Xinjiang plan to lease or sell off, and the willingness of enterprises to lease factories is low this year [12]