Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that cotton futures prices on the ICE are experiencing fluctuations, with a slight increase observed on January 29, 2023, where the price opened at 63.73 cents per pound and reached a high of 63.83 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.16% increase [1] Group 2 - On January 28, 2023, the opening price of U.S. cotton was 63.77 cents per pound, with a closing price of 63.95 cents per pound, marking a 0.31% increase [2] - The average price of Xinjiang 3128 cotton delivered to factories was 15,884 yuan per ton, an increase of 415 yuan per ton [2] - The price of Xinjiang 32s pure cotton yarn remained stable at 22,100 yuan per ton, while spinning profit decreased to 192.24 yuan per ton, down by 473.10 yuan per ton [2] - As of January 27, 2026, the cumulative amount of cotton inspected nationwide for the new season reached 7.1952 million tons, an increase of 812,500 tons year-on-year [2] - In Brazil's Mato Grosso state, the cotton planting progress improved by 19 percentage points to 48% as of January 23, compared to 29% in the same period last year [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton futures fluctuated following the price of Chinese cotton, rising at the beginning of the week and falling later. The report maintains the judgment that Zhengzhou cotton futures will fluctuate with a slight upward trend and waits for the determination of phased support [1][2][17] - It is recommended to trade the target price subsidy policy for the next three years and the output of the new year after the Spring Festival, considering the demand situation [2][17] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - ICE Cotton Main Continuous: Open price 64.30, high price 65.76, low price 64.24, close price 64.48, change 0.47, change rate 0.73%, trading volume 152,672 lots, trading volume change 76,763 lots, open interest 171,048 lots, open interest change -6,364 lots [5] - Zhengzhou Cotton Main Continuous: Open price 14,600, high price 15,095, low price 14,515, close price 14,675, change 90, change rate 0.62%, trading volume 2,666,762 lots, trading volume change 1,519,133 lots, open interest 848,986 lots, open interest change -11,739 lots [5] - Cotton Yarn Main Continuous: Open price 20,590, high price 21,200, low price 20,500, close price 20,690, change 105, change rate 0.51%, trading volume 57,242 lots, trading volume change 20,545 lots, open interest 16,816 lots, open interest change -2,774 lots [5] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton futures rose and then fell this week, mainly following the price of Chinese cotton. At the beginning of the week, the sharp rise in Chinese cotton futures and spot prices widened the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton, driving some funds to buy ICE cotton futures, which once reached 65.76 cents per pound. In the second half of the week, as Chinese cotton futures fell, the weekly US cotton export data was poor, and the US dollar strengthened, ICE cotton futures also declined, returning to around 64.5 cents per pound [1][5] - As of the week ending January 1, 2026, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 22,200 tons, a 27% decrease from the previous week and a 49% decrease from the four - week average. The weekly signing volume of 2026/27 US upland cotton was 5,100 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 34,900 tons, an increase of 9% from the previous week and 18% from the four - week average. The total signing volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 1.5425 million tons, accounting for 59% of the annual forecasted export volume (2.61 million tons); the cumulative export shipment volume was 710,400 tons, accounting for 46% of the annual total signing volume [6] - India: The import tariff on cotton has been restored since January 1, 2026, with a comprehensive tax rate of 11%, causing the cotton price to rise [7] - Brazil: In December, the export volume of raw cotton reached 452,000 tons, setting a new monthly export record. From July to December, the export volume of raw cotton was 1.532 million tons, an 11% increase from the same period last year and a 28% increase from the same period in the previous production season. As of January 3, the national cotton planting progress was about 31%, about 6 percentage points higher than the previous week and slightly faster than the same period last year [8] - Pakistan: The export demand for yarn has improved. The total cotton output this year is expected to be in the range of 7 - 7.25 million bales. The domestic cotton market trading is light, and the supply of high - quality cotton is tight. The price and demand in the domestic yarn market have shown a mild recovery [8] - Bangladesh: In December, the export value of ready - made garments was $3.23 billion, a 3% increase from November but a 14% decrease from the same period last year. The cumulative export value in the first six months of this fiscal year was $19.4 billion, a 3% decrease from the same period in the 2024/25 fiscal year. The textile mills are still under pressure due to energy supply shortages, high raw material costs, and low corporate profits [9][10] Domestic Cotton Situation - The price of domestic cotton futures and spot first rose and then fell. The trading volume of cotton spot improved compared with last week. The one - price of cotton spot first rose and then fell with Zhengzhou cotton, and the sales basis of spot remained stable overall [11] - As of January 9, there were 7,388 registered warehouse receipts and 2,299 forecast warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 9,687 receipts, equivalent to 406,854 tons [11] - The prices of cotton yarn and grey cloth increased, but the trading volume was average. The market for pure cotton yarn was mainly for rigid demand. The demand for high - count combed yarn was good, while the demand for medium - and low - count yarn was insufficient. The price of pure cotton yarn increased, but the increase could only cover 50% - 60% of the increase in cotton price. The opening rate of inland spinning mills continued to decline, and the inventory accumulated; the opening rate of Xinjiang spinning mills remained high, and the inventory pressure was relatively small. The price of the full - cotton grey cloth market increased, but the actual trading was difficult to follow up [12] 3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 basic data charts, including cotton sales progress, cotton commercial inventory, spinning mill cotton inventory, etc., with data sources from mysteel and tteb [14][15][16] 4. Operational Suggestions - Maintain the judgment that Zhengzhou cotton futures will fluctuate with a slight upward trend and wait for the determination of phased support. It is recommended to trade the target price subsidy policy for the next three years and the output of the new year after the Spring Festival, considering the demand situation [17]

Market Overview - The Brazil CEPEA/ESALQ cotton price index reported at 65.72 cents per pound, an increase of 0.81% from the previous day and 3.81% from the same period last month [1] - As of January 3, Brazil's cotton planting rate reached 31.2%, up from 25.1% the previous week and slightly above last year's 30.5%, with a five-year average of 20.9% [1] Cost Analysis - The total cost of planting machine-harvested cotton in Northern Xinjiang for 2025 is projected to be 2962 yuan per mu, a decrease of 40 yuan per mu year-on-year, representing a reduction of 1.3% [1] Institutional Insights - According to Wenkang Futures, the reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang was anticipated by the market, and the recent rise in Zheng cotton prices may lead to increased price volatility. The supply-demand relationship is currently balanced, with increased downstream operating rates and limited imports, suggesting a favorable outlook for potential buying opportunities [3] - Micron Futures noted that the cotton market is maintaining a strong oscillating trend, influenced by surrounding commodity markets. There is optimism regarding textile exports and domestic sales, but breaking through the current price range will require validation of consumption in the new year and confirmation of supply conditions [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Cotton and Cotton Yarn Weekly Report - Cotton Prices Fluctuate, Pay Attention to Upper Pressure [1] - Date: December 5, 2025 [1] Group 2: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 2.1 Core Contradictions - As of December 4, 2025, the cumulative national new - season cotton notarized inspection volume was 4.6436 million tons, with the average daily notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton around 80,000 tons. There is still hedging pressure on the futures market. Spot basis quotes have slightly decreased, while fixed - price quotes remain firm [2]. - Downstream overall load is stable, spinners' profits are acceptable, and finished - product inventory pressure is not large. Yarn sales are better than grey fabric sales, and spinners have a rigid demand for replenishing cotton inventory. Follow - up orders need attention [2]. 2.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Near - term Trading Logic**: New cotton is accelerating onto the market, but the downstream has resilience. Despite being in the traditional off - season, some sectors have good orders and spinners maintain certain profits. As long as the final cotton output does not increase unexpectedly, the downside space for cotton prices is limited. Pay attention to whether the hedging pressure around 13,800 can be broken [4]. - **Long - term Trading Logic**: In recent years, domestic downstream textile production capacity has expanded significantly. Xinjiang spinning mills maintain high - load operation, increasing the rigid consumption of cotton raw materials. Sino - US trade expectations are gradually improving. Although domestic cotton production has increased significantly, imports are still needed to fill the gap. The total 1% import tariff quota for cotton in 2026 remains at 894,000 tons, and with the additional 200,000 - ton sliding - scale quota, the total new - season import quota is still relatively low. The probability of further increasing the cotton import quota is low, so the domestic cotton supply - demand may remain tight in the new season. Pay attention to the demand side under the influence of new - season policy changes [15][16]. 2.3 Strategy Recommendations for Industrial Customers - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range for cotton is predicted to be between 13,500 and 14,000. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.0542, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 0.0365 [18]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2605) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 13,900 - 14,000. They can also sell call options (CF605C14000) to collect premiums and reduce costs, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 200 - 250 [18]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2605) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 13,400 - 13,500. They can also sell put options (CF601P13400) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 250 - 300 [18]. 2.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Data**: Zhengzhou cotton 01 closed at 13,750, up 25 (0.18%); Zhengzhou cotton 05 closed at 13,720, up 35 (0.26%); Zhengzhou cotton 09 closed at 13,855, up 65 (0.47%) [19]. - **Spot Data**: CC Index 3128B was at 15,022, up 126 (0.85%); CC Index 2227B was at 13,165, up 148 (1.14%); CC Index 2129B was at 15,290, up 148 (0.98%) [19]. - **Spread Data**: CF1 - 5 spread was 30, down 10; CF5 - 9 spread was - 135, down 30; CF9 - 1 spread was 105, up 40 [20]. - **Import Price**: FC Index M was at 12,853, down 82 (- 0.63%); FCY Index C32s was at 21,116, up 19 (0.09%) [20]. - **Cotton Yarn Data**: The futures price was 20,005, down 85 (- 0.42%); the现货 price was 20,770, up 30 (0.14%) [20]. Group 3: Weekly Information and Upcoming Events 3.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: - As of November 27, the national new - cotton picking progress was 99.6%, the same as last year and 0.1 percentage points higher than the four - year average; the national delivery rate was 98.5%, 1.0 percentage points higher than last year and 2.2 percentage points higher than the four - year average; the national processing rate was 72.5%, 3.3 percentage points higher than last year and 9.8 percentage points higher than the four - year average; the national sales rate was 33.2%, 18.9 percentage points higher than last year and 22.1 percentage points higher than the four - year average [20]. - In October, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles in China were 147.1 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 19.54% and a year - on - year increase of 9.21% [21]. - As of October 23, 2025, the cumulative net signed export volume of US cotton for the 2025/26 season was 1.137 million tons, accounting for 42.81% of the annual expected export volume, and the cumulative shipped volume was 398,000 tons, with a shipping rate of 34.98% [21]. - As of November 30, 2025, the cumulative new - season seed cotton listing volume in Pakistan, converted to lint cotton, was about 796,000 tons, an increase of 43,000 tons from the previous two weeks and a 1.1% decrease compared to the same period last year [21]. - **Negative Information**: - In October 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 22.262 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.59% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.84%. Textile exports were 11.258 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 9.05% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.92%; clothing exports were 11.004 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 15.93% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.64% [22]. - As of November 15, the total national cotton industrial and commercial inventory was 4.5711 million tons, an increase of 752,300 tons from the end of October. Commercial inventory was 3.6397 million tons, an increase of 709,100 tons from the end of October, and industrial inventory was 931,400 tons, an increase of 43,200 tons from the end of October [22]. - In October 2025, the export volume of cotton products was 608,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.36% and a month - on - month increase of 0.98%. The export value was 4.678 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 17.09% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.12%. The export unit price was 7.69 US dollars per kilogram, a year - on - year decrease of 15.96% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.13% [22]. 3.2 Next Week's Important Events - The cotton harvest in Xinjiang is basically completed. Pay attention to the processing and final output of Xinjiang cotton [23]. - Follow up on US cotton export data and the adjustment of the December USDA Global Cotton Supply and Demand Report [23]. Group 4: Disk Interpretation 4.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: This week, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated around 13,700 - 13,800 yuan/ton. The downward movement was mainly driven by long - position exits rather than short - position increases. Market trading was cautious, and the hedging pressure around 13,800 was obvious [31]. - **Month - spread Structure**: The cotton 1 - 5 spread still shows a slight back structure, but after the 05 contract, it maintains a contango structure, indicating an expectation of tight supply - demand at the end of the year [34]. - **Basis Structure**: This week, the cotton basis slightly decreased. The fixed - price quotes for hand - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang (3130/30B/impurity within 2) and machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang (3130/29 - 30B/impurity within 3.5) are around 14,800 - 14,950 (on a legal weight basis). The spot sales basis for the same - quality cotton is mostly in the range of CF01 + 1100 - 1250, and the basis in the 1000 - 1100 range slightly increased this week [36]. Group 5: Valuation and Profit Analysis 5.1 Downstream Spinning Profit Tracking - Supported by policies and technological innovation, Xinjiang spinning mills have a significant cost advantage over those in the inland. Xinjiang spinning has always maintained certain profits, while inland mills were basically slightly loss - making in the third quarter. Since September, due to the hedging pressure from ginning mills and the supply pressure of new cotton, domestic cotton prices have declined, while yarn spot prices have been relatively stable, significantly repairing domestic spinners' profits. This week, cotton spot prices continued to rise slightly, while yarn prices were relatively stable, and spinners' profits narrowed compared to last week [38]. 5.2 Import Profit Tracking - China is a large cotton - importing country. Affected by the Xinjiang cotton ban and tariff policies, domestic and foreign cotton prices move relatively independently. This year, China's cotton import profit has been considerable, but the import quota is currently low, and the domestic cotton import volume remains at a low level. In October 2025, China's cotton import volume was 90,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons. The cumulative cotton import volume in the 2025/26 season was 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.4%. This week, foreign cotton prices trended weakly, and China's cotton import profit slightly increased [40]. Group 6: Supply and Inventory Projection 6.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - The new - season cotton harvest in Xinjiang is basically completed. With the progress of new - cotton procurement, the expected output of Xinjiang cotton has been slightly revised upwards again, indicating a bumper harvest. In terms of imports, the National Development and Reform Commission has issued an additional 200,000 - ton sliding - scale quota, and together with the 894,000 - ton 1% tariff quota issued in 2026, the new - season cotton import volume is tentatively estimated at 1.1 million tons. Given the domestic bumper harvest and the unchanged Sino - US situation, the probability of further increasing the sliding - scale quota is currently low. On the downstream side, domestic demand may maintain a moderate recovery. Although it is currently the traditional off - season, some textile and clothing sectors have good orders. On the export side, although there are no "rush - to - export" orders, with the further relaxation of Sino - US trade, domestic cotton consumption expectations are still supported [44].

Report Overview - Report title: [Galaxy Research] Investigation Report on Cotton Planting and Inventory in Northern Xinjiang (II) [2] - Report date: June 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [7] Research Background - The cotton planting area will continue to increase in the 2025/26 season, and the report aims to understand the change in Xinjiang's cotton output [3] - Xinjiang's spinning capacity is approaching 30 million spindles and still expanding, and the report wants to know the operation of textile enterprises under the deteriorating international trade environment [3] - With the accelerating出库 speed of Xinjiang cotton, the report intends to find out the real inventory situation due to concerns about tight supply during the off - season before new cotton is on the market [3] Research Route - Urumqi - Wujiaqu - Shihezi - Kuitun - Jinghe [4] Research Findings Spinning Enterprise D - Enterprise situation: It has a capacity of about 100,000 spindles, two processing workshops (self - operated and contract - processing), 30 - 50 employees, mainly produces pure - cotton yarn C32S and C40S, and the processing fee is 4000 - 5000 yuan/ton with different varieties having different fees [6] - Startup situation: Its textile machines in Xinjiang are mostly running, while its inland spinning mills operate during off - peak hours at night as many inland spinning machines are shut down [8] - Inventory: Since it mainly does contract - processing, its cotton and yarn inventories are small [9] - Order situation: Orders are average, and the high impurity in cotton affects yarn quality [9] - Market outlook: The downstream market is average, cotton prices may have small fluctuations. The enthusiasm of ginning factories in Northern Xinjiang to lease factories is low, and some have the idea of selling off, showing less confidence than in previous years [9] Warehouse E - Enterprise situation: It has a storage capacity of about 150,000 tons [10] - Cotton inventory: The incoming volume this year accounts for about 50% of the total capacity. The peak outgoing volume can reach 2000 tons/day, with peak periods after the Spring Festival and in April. The outgoing speed has slowed down recently, and the remaining inventory is small, with most goods owned by large enterprises and little by private enterprises [10] Warehouse F - Enterprise and inventory situation: It has a small storage capacity of 40,000 - 50,000 tons, and the remaining cotton inventory is low. The outgoing speed has slowed down recently. The cotton outgoing progress this year is slightly faster than last year, with 20+ trucks per day during the peak last year and 3 - 4 trucks per day recently [11] Warehouse G - Enterprise and inventory situation: It is a large warehouse with a capacity of 400,000 - 500,000 tons. The incoming volume this year is slightly less, about 300,000 - 350,000 tons. It still has some inventory, and the outgoing speed has slowed down recently after being fast after the Spring Festival and maintaining a basic volume in March and April [12] - Other: The new cotton is growing well, and the output in the new season may not change much compared to this season. Some ginning factories in Northern Xinjiang plan to lease or sell off, and the willingness of enterprises to lease factories is low this year [12]