二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 1 月 11 日 棉花：暂无新驱动，期价回调 20260111 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 报告导读： 截至 1 月 9 日当周，ICE 棉花冲高回落，主要跟随中国棉花价格波动，周初中国棉花期货和现货价格 大涨，内外棉价差大幅扩大，推动部分资金买入 ICE 棉花期货，ICE 棉花期货一度上冲至 65.76 美分/ 磅；下半周随着中国棉花期货回落、美棉周度出口数据不佳、以及美元走强，ICE 棉花期货也出现回落， 回到 64.5 美分/磅附近。 国内棉花期货和现货价格冲高回落，一方面受到整体商品市场情绪变化影响，另一方面也是基本面缺 乏新的驱动造成的。郑棉期货 05 合约最高触及 15095，现货价格一度超过 8 月份的高点，目前国内的棉 花供应还是很充足的，而下游的需求处于淡季，所以单纯从供需情况来看是要明显较 8 月份宽松的，另外 距离春节也还有一段时间，因此短期内下游并没有追高意愿；另外内外棉价差扩大也引发了一些进口棉和 纱增加的担忧；此外，市场关于 2026 年新疆棉花种植面积下降的预期，由于近期的一些会议上并没有进 一步 ...

机构观点 调查结果显示，2025年北疆机采棉租地种植总成本为2962元/亩，同比减少40元/亩，减幅1.3%。 据巴西农业部下属的国家商品供应公司CONAB，截至1月3日，巴西棉花播种率为31.2%，上周为25.1%，去年同期为30.5%，五年均值为20.9%。 消息面 五矿期货： 1月6日，巴西CEPEA/ESALQ棉花价格指数报每磅65.72美分，较昨日上涨0.81%，较上月同期上涨3.81%。 关于新疆棉花种植面积调减，市场此前已早有预期，同时目前郑棉价格上行至近期高位，价格波动幅度可能会放大。从基本面来看，近期淡季不 淡，下游开机率同比增加，虽然国内增产，但进口受限，供需关系处于平衡状态，叠加利好预期，建议等待回调择机做多。 迈科期货： 棉花市场跟随周边商品市场维持震荡偏强运行态势，纺织出口内销仍有期待，市场情绪对一二季度较为乐观。棉价大区间很难打破。这需要新年 度的消费验证以及供应端情况确认。棉价波段上行进行产业压力测试。结论：05合约支撑5日线。 ...

南华期货棉花棉纱周报 ——棉价震荡波动，关注上方压力 2025/12/5 陈嘉宁（投资咨询证号：Z0020097 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 * 近端交易逻辑 当前新棉加速上市，但下游存在韧性，虽处于传统淡季时期，但部分板块订单情况良好且纱厂保持一定利 润，在新棉最终产量未有超预期上调下，棉价下方空间有限，关注13800附近套保压力突破情况。 . .. 中国棉花采摘进度季节性 source： 国家棉花市场监测系统,南华研究 % 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 09/15 09/29 10/13 10/27 11/10 11/24 12/08 12/22 0 25 50 75 100 中国棉花交售进度季节性 source： 国家棉花市场监测系统,南华研究 % 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 11/01 01/01 03/01 05/01 0 25 50 75 100 中国纯棉纱厂负荷季节性 中国全棉坯布负荷季节性 截至2025年12月4日，全国新年度棉花公证检验量累计464.36万吨，近日疆棉平均日度公检 ...

Report Overview - Report title: [Galaxy Research] Investigation Report on Cotton Planting and Inventory in Northern Xinjiang (II) [2] - Report date: June 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [7] Research Background - The cotton planting area will continue to increase in the 2025/26 season, and the report aims to understand the change in Xinjiang's cotton output [3] - Xinjiang's spinning capacity is approaching 30 million spindles and still expanding, and the report wants to know the operation of textile enterprises under the deteriorating international trade environment [3] - With the accelerating出库 speed of Xinjiang cotton, the report intends to find out the real inventory situation due to concerns about tight supply during the off - season before new cotton is on the market [3] Research Route - Urumqi - Wujiaqu - Shihezi - Kuitun - Jinghe [4] Research Findings Spinning Enterprise D - Enterprise situation: It has a capacity of about 100,000 spindles, two processing workshops (self - operated and contract - processing), 30 - 50 employees, mainly produces pure - cotton yarn C32S and C40S, and the processing fee is 4000 - 5000 yuan/ton with different varieties having different fees [6] - Startup situation: Its textile machines in Xinjiang are mostly running, while its inland spinning mills operate during off - peak hours at night as many inland spinning machines are shut down [8] - Inventory: Since it mainly does contract - processing, its cotton and yarn inventories are small [9] - Order situation: Orders are average, and the high impurity in cotton affects yarn quality [9] - Market outlook: The downstream market is average, cotton prices may have small fluctuations. The enthusiasm of ginning factories in Northern Xinjiang to lease factories is low, and some have the idea of selling off, showing less confidence than in previous years [9] Warehouse E - Enterprise situation: It has a storage capacity of about 150,000 tons [10] - Cotton inventory: The incoming volume this year accounts for about 50% of the total capacity. The peak outgoing volume can reach 2000 tons/day, with peak periods after the Spring Festival and in April. The outgoing speed has slowed down recently, and the remaining inventory is small, with most goods owned by large enterprises and little by private enterprises [10] Warehouse F - Enterprise and inventory situation: It has a small storage capacity of 40,000 - 50,000 tons, and the remaining cotton inventory is low. The outgoing speed has slowed down recently. The cotton outgoing progress this year is slightly faster than last year, with 20+ trucks per day during the peak last year and 3 - 4 trucks per day recently [11] Warehouse G - Enterprise and inventory situation: It is a large warehouse with a capacity of 400,000 - 500,000 tons. The incoming volume this year is slightly less, about 300,000 - 350,000 tons. It still has some inventory, and the outgoing speed has slowed down recently after being fast after the Spring Festival and maintaining a basic volume in March and April [12] - Other: The new cotton is growing well, and the output in the new season may not change much compared to this season. Some ginning factories in Northern Xinjiang plan to lease or sell off, and the willingness of enterprises to lease factories is low this year [12]