商品策略周报 I 2025 年 09 月 29 日 节前继续观望 南华研究院 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1290 号 顾双飞 投资咨询证号：Z0013611 王建锋 投资咨询证号：Z0010946 本周主要观点： 风险点：反内卷政策落实、中美谈判进展、宏观政策变化； 重要声明：本报告内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 周行情观点综述 当下的市场，各种消息突发的冲击。近期就有阿根廷暂停农产品关税、印尼铜 矿停止作业、俄罗斯炼油厂遭到无人机袭击、玻璃反内卷相关文件的出台等等，给 市场造成了短期的冲击。市场风险无处不在，极大提高了交易操作的难度，也不利 于策略的执行。从市场节奏来看，反内卷主题行情已经处于冷却周期，市场目前更 多是交易过剩品种的现实端的逻辑。因为从基本面来看，纯碱、PVC等品种，它们 的供需格局仍然偏宽松，且下游需求仍然疲软。就像上次我们说的，当临近交割月 的时候，价格可能又被会打回现实端。 在当下，我们认为，市场的主线矛盾不够清晰，估值也不够低。不管从驱动角 度来说，还是从估值角度来看，都不足以让我们有足够强烈的意愿去参与市场。面 对当下的局面，最好的办法就是耐心等待。 胡乐克 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the anti - involution theme, exchange measures like position limits and fee hikes, and the delivery logic of the 2509 contract, some varieties with weak supply - demand fundamentals have seen continuous declines. In September, some varieties started to stabilize after losing the downward guidance of the 09 contract. The impact of the anti - involution theme is limited. With the National Day holiday approaching, it's advisable to control positions and operate cautiously [2][3][5]. - Anti - involution varieties are relatively strong, while the non - ferrous sector is bearish [3]. - The anti - involution is a long - term theme. After a sharp rise in July, trading volume and open interest of anti - involution varieties decreased due to position limits and fee hikes, and some varieties with weak industrial supply - demand in the real - world declined in mid - and late - August. After September 1st, these varieties showed signs of stopping the decline and stabilizing. The implementation of anti - involution policies in the industrial end is a key influencing factor. The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle led to the outflow of profit - taking funds, causing a downward adjustment in the non - ferrous sector. For agricultural products, if the Sino - US tariff negotiation progresses smoothly, domestic agricultural products will face pressure [4]. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1. Capital Flow - The total capital flow is - 5.637 billion yuan, with significant outflows in non - ferrous metals (- 3.211 billion yuan) and precious metals (- 224 million yuan), and inflows in soft commodities (239 million yuan) and oils and fats (123 million yuan) [8]. 3.2. Weekly Data of Black and Non - ferrous Metals - Data such as price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, open interest percentile, open interest change percentile, and annualized basis are provided for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties. For example, iron ore has a price percentile of 21.5%, a inventory percentile of 55.0%, etc. [8] 3.3. Weekly Data of Energy and Chemicals - Similar data is presented for energy and chemical varieties. For instance, fuel oil has a price percentile of 4.9%, a inventory percentile of 36.7%, etc. [10] 3.4. Weekly Data of Agricultural Products - Data for agricultural product varieties are shown, like soybean meal with a price percentile of 6.1%, a inventory percentile of 77.4%, etc. [11] 3.5. Capital Flow Diagrams - There are diagrams showing the capital flow of black varieties, olefin varieties, polyester varieties, other chemical varieties, energy varieties, oils and fats and oilseeds, agricultural and sideline products, and non - ferrous sectors [12][16][17][19][21][22][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since August 13th, the adjustment wave of anti - involution varieties has lasted for a month. As time progresses, it is approaching the end of the adjustment wave, and the overall view is bullish. In specific sectors, the outlook for oilseeds and fats is bullish, while that for chemicals is bearish [2][3][5] - In addition to industrial products, agricultural products have also stabilized recently. The downward driving force of agricultural products has further weakened, but attention should be paid to the risk of soybean meal prices caused by uncertain tariffs [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Trend - From August 13th, the adjustment wave of anti - involution varieties has lasted for a month. During this period, varieties with weak fundamentals and low basis, such as glass, soda ash, PVC, urea, and crude oil, have adjusted and led the decline, while polysilicon and coking coal have maintained horizontal consolidation. As the adjustment wave nears its end, these varieties will choose a direction [4] - Agricultural products have stabilized. The USDA supply - demand report on September 12th showed a slight increase in the US soybean ending inventory, but it could not drive the market lower. The path of least resistance for US soybeans is no longer downward, and there is little point in short - selling domestic soybean meal and oil varieties. The risk lies in tariffs [4] 3.2 Capital Flow - The total capital flow is 10.312 billion. Among different sectors, precious metals have a capital flow of 2.421 billion, non - ferrous metals have - 0.143 billion, black metals have 0.447 billion, energy has 0.83 billion, chemicals have 0.265 billion, feed and breeding have 0.479 billion, oilseeds and fats have 0.06 billion, and soft commodities have 0.065 billion [8] 3.3 Weekly Data of Different Sectors - **Black and Non - ferrous Metals**: Data such as price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, basis difference percentile, and annualized basis are provided for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. [8] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Similar data are provided for energy and chemical varieties, such as fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, asphalt, etc. [10] - **Agricultural Products**: Data for agricultural products like soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, etc. are presented, including price percentile, inventory percentile, etc. [11]