以下文章来源于远川投资评论 ，作者沈晖 远川投资评论 . 看更好的资管内容 黄金、白银度过了不平凡的两个月。 先是白银逼空，逼着交易所提高保证金，限制开仓手数。紧接着迎来沃什时刻，白银大跌30%，黄金则遭遇1983年以来最大的单日跌幅。在这场14西格玛级 别的场景里，不少主观 CTA、宏观私募大幅回撤。 其中也包括各家"中国桥水"。火富牛数据显示，申九、金和晟、国恩、尚艺等私募的部分全天候产品，在2月初那周回撤7个点以上，澜音的全天候产品回撤 了20个点。 全天候策略配置了多个低相关性的资产，如果依据风险平价逻辑，低波动率的债券占比较高。在债券表现尚可的前提下，单周出现如此巨大的回撤，大概率 超配了金银。 | 股票类 | | 债券类 | | 商品类 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证 50 | -0.93% | CFFEX2年期国债 | +0.05% | 南华商品指数 | -4.49% | | | | 期货 | | | | | 沪深 300 | -1.33% | CFFEX5年期国债 | +0.05% | 南华农产品指数 | -1.18% | | | ...

黄金、白银度过了不平凡的两个月。 先是白银逼空，逼着交易所提高保证金，限制开仓手数。紧接着迎来沃什时刻，白银大跌30%，黄金则遭遇1983年以来最大的单日跌幅。在这场14西格玛级 别的场景里，不少主观 CTA、宏观私募大幅回撤。 其中也包括各家"中国桥水"。火富牛数据显示，申九、金和晟、国恩、尚艺等私募的部分全天候产品，在2月初那周回撤7个点以上，澜音的全天候产品回撤 了20个点。 全天候策略配置了多个低相关性的资产，如果依据风险平价逻辑，低波动率的债券占比较高。在债券表现尚可的前提下，单周出现如此巨大的回撤，大概率 超配了金银。 | 股票类 | | 债券类 | | 商品类 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 下证 50 | -0.93% | CFFEX2年期国债 | +0.05% | 南华商品指数 | -4.49% | | | | 期货 | | | | | 沪深 300 | -1.33% | CFFEX5年期国债 | +0.05% | 南华农产品指数 | -1.18% | | | | 期货 | | | | | 中证 500% | -2.68% | CFFE ...

Market Overview - In 2025, the A-share market experienced an overall upward trend, with major indices recording significant gains, including an increase of over 18% in the Shanghai Composite Index and over 49% in the ChiNext Index [1] - The commodity market showed notable differentiation, with precious metals driven by safe-haven attributes and macroeconomic logic, achieving a cumulative annual increase of over 81% [1] Private Fund Performance - By the end of 2025, among 5,192 private funds displayed on the Private Fund Ranking website, the average annual return reached 31.93% [1] - Quantitative long and subjective long strategies performed particularly well, with average returns of 44.74% and 37.71%, respectively [1] - The active rotation in sectors such as consumption, technology, and high-end manufacturing created substantial structural opportunities for equity strategy funds, supported by active market trading and sustained liquidity [1] Strategy Performance Quantitative Long Strategy - The top-performing quantitative long products included 806 funds with an average return of 44.74% [3] - Notable products in this category included Gaia Qingke, Jintong Investment, and Hanrong Investment [4] Subjective Long Strategy - The subjective long strategy had 2,185 funds with an average return of 37.71%, with the highest entry threshold for the top 20 products [4][9] - Leading products in this category came from companies like Nengjing Investment Holdings and Shanghai Ge Ru Private Equity [10] Composite Strategy - The composite strategy saw 427 funds with an average return of 30.77%, with top products from Shuohe Asset and Tianhui Investment [12][15] Macro Strategy - The macro strategy included 133 funds, with the top products from companies like Jiuqi Investment and Luyuan Private Equity [16][18] - Notably, Luyuan Private Equity's product achieved significant returns, highlighting the effectiveness of macro strategies [20] Subjective CTA Strategy - The subjective CTA strategy had 78 funds, with top products from Yizu Investment and Chiying Private Equity [21][24] Quantitative CTA Strategy - The quantitative CTA strategy included 185 funds, with Hua Cheng Private Equity leading with significant returns [25][27] Private FOF Strategy - The private FOF strategy had 56 funds, with an average return of 20.55%, and top products from Shanghai Taiying and Qingdao Hongyun Ruiheng Private Equity [29][31] - The FOF strategy focuses on selecting and allocating multiple private funds to achieve diversified investment [29]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant upward trend in 2025, with major indices showing considerable gains, including an over 18% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index and a more than 49% rise in the ChiNext Index. Precious metals, driven by their safe-haven properties and macroeconomic logic, saw an impressive annual increase of over 81% [3]. Private Fund Performance - By the end of 2025, the average return for 5,192 private funds displayed on the Private Fund Ranking Network reached 31.93%. Notably, quantitative long and subjective long strategies performed exceptionally well, with average returns of 44.74% and 37.71%, respectively [3][5]. - The active rotation in sectors such as consumption, technology, and high-end manufacturing created substantial structural opportunities for equity strategy funds, further enhanced by active market trading and sustained liquidity [3]. Strategy Performance - Multi-asset strategies, including composite and macro strategies, also performed well, with average returns exceeding 29%. Other mainstream strategies, such as CTA and FOF strategies, achieved average returns above 20% [3]. - The top-performing strategies in 2025 included: - Quantitative Long: Average return of 44.74% - Subjective Long: Average return of 37.71% - Composite Strategy: Average return of 30.77% - Macro Strategy: Average return of 29.01% [5][6][11]. Top Funds by Strategy - The top 20 quantitative long products included firms such as Gaia Qingke, Jintong Investment, and Hanrong Investment, with the top threshold for returns being notably high [6][7]. - The leading subjective long products were from firms like Nengjing Investment Holdings and Shanghai Geryu Private Equity, with a high entry threshold for returns [11][13]. - In the composite strategy category, Shuohe Asset led the performance, followed by Tianhui Investment and Ningbo Shufa Private Equity [17][18]. - For macro strategies, notable performers included Jiuqi Investment and Luyuan Private Equity, with a significant number of products achieving high returns [20][21]. Private Fund of Funds (FOF) - The average return for private FOF products in 2025 was 20.55%, with the top ten funds including Shanghai Taiying and Qingdao Hongyun Ruiheng Private Equity [35][36]. - The leading FOF product, managed by Li Chunyu of Rongzhi Investment, achieved a notable return, emphasizing a focus on diversified asset allocation and risk management [40].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of finding a suitable asset allocation strategy rather than chasing after high-performing investment products, highlighting that a well-structured portfolio can yield better results than focusing solely on individual product performance [20][44]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The article references the legendary trader Jesse Livermore, who experienced both immense wealth and significant losses throughout his life, illustrating the volatility of investment strategies [5][7]. - It contrasts Livermore's approach with that of Ray Dalio, who has successfully navigated market cycles through a diversified "All Weather" strategy, which includes cross-asset, cross-country, and cross-industry allocations [9][48]. - The narrative suggests that most investors, like Livermore, often spend excessive energy searching for the next big investment opportunity, which can lead to poor timing and decisions [12][18]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Importance - The article argues that asset allocation is more critical than selecting individual products, stating that even average-performing products can yield satisfactory results when combined effectively [20][45]. - It provides a mathematical example showing that a balanced portfolio of three average-performing strategies could achieve a return of nearly 60% over three years, despite individual products experiencing significant drawdowns [32][35]. - The text emphasizes that the maximum drawdown of a well-allocated portfolio can be significantly lower than that of individual high-performing products, which can lead to better overall investment experiences [39][41]. Group 3: Tailoring Asset Allocation - The article outlines the importance of aligning asset allocation with individual risk tolerance, return expectations, and liquidity needs, providing examples of different investor profiles [51][56]. - It suggests that a well-considered asset allocation strategy is akin to a balanced diet, where the focus should be on the overall structure rather than specific components [58][60].

Core Insights - The quantitative private equity industry is experiencing a comprehensive recovery in 2025, driven by active trading volumes, structural market trends, and the influence of technology growth, particularly artificial intelligence (AI) [1] - The industry anticipates that 2026 will present both opportunities and challenges, with a focus on the need for diversification and enhanced internal capabilities [3] Performance and Scale - As of November 2025, the average excess return of stock quantitative long products in the market reached 17.25%, with over 90% of products achieving positive excess returns [1] - The increase in trading volume and liquidity in the A-share market has provided a solid foundation for quantitative strategies to generate excess returns [1] - Leading managers with comprehensive research teams and broad signal coverage are expected to deliver more stable excess returns, while smaller managers may excel in specific market conditions [1] Fundraising Trends - The fundraising environment is showing signs of recovery, characterized by a rational and concentrated approach, with investors favoring institutions that demonstrate long-term performance, transparent risk control, and strong drawdown management [2] - There is a growing preference for multi-strategy quantitative products as a one-stop solution for fund allocation [2] AI Empowerment - AI technology has transitioned from an optional tool to a necessary component for competitive advantage in quantitative investing [2] - AI applications are now deeply integrated into critical processes such as data cleaning, factor extraction, and trade execution optimization, significantly enhancing research efficiency [2][3] Strategic Diversification - The industry faces challenges such as strategy homogenization and intensified competition for excess returns, prompting firms to prioritize diversification and internal capability enhancement [3] - Firms are shifting focus towards multi-strategy and multi-frequency collaboration to adapt to market cycles, with an emphasis on low-correlation revenue sources [3] Infrastructure and Talent Development - The competition for computational infrastructure and top talent remains crucial, with firms emphasizing the importance of research efficiency and system architecture [4] - Investor relations and service systems are gaining increased importance, with firms expected to engage more proactively with investors to build stable long-term relationships [4]

Core Viewpoint - Quantitative investment has gained significant traction in 2023 due to breakthroughs in AI technologies and favorable market conditions, with quantitative long strategies showing strong performance in the A-share market [2]. Group 1: Quantitative Long Strategy Performance - As of November 2025, there are 715 quantitative long products with a total scale of approximately 609.92 billion, achieving an average return of 39.07% over the past year, outperforming other secondary strategies [2][3]. - The average returns for various secondary strategies are as follows: - Quantitative Long: 39.07% - Subjective Long: 35.20% - Other Derivative Strategies: 29.36% - Macro Strategies: 27.06% - Composite Strategies: 26.48% - Quantitative CTA: 18.55% - FOF: 17.88% - Stock Long-Short: 15.59% [3]. Group 2: Top Performers in Quantitative Long Strategies - Among the top-performing private equity firms with over 100 billion in assets, the average return for their quantitative long products is 43.46%, with 29 firms having at least three qualifying products [5]. - The top three firms in this category are: - Lingjun Investment - Pingfang Investment - Ningbo Huansheng Quantitative [5][8]. Group 3: Performance by Asset Size - For firms with 20-100 billion in assets, the average return is 41.79%, with the top three being: - Luxiu Investment - Yunqi Quantitative - Guangzhou Shouzheng Yongqi [9][10]. - In the 5-20 billion category, the average return is 35.88%, with the top three being: - Longyin Huxiao - Zhongmin Huijin - Yangshi Asset [12][13]. - For firms with 0-5 billion in assets, the average return is 33.26%, with the top three being: - Hangzhou Saipasi - Guangzhou Tianzheng Han - Hongtong Investment [15][16].

Market Overview - In 2023, major stock markets including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks experienced significant volatility due to tariff issues, but benefitted from liquidity easing and advancements in AI technology, leading to varying degrees of increases in major indices from January to November [2] - The ChiNext Index in A-shares led with an increase of over 42%, while the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both rose over 25%. Among US stocks, the Nasdaq outperformed with a rise of approximately 21% [2] A-share Performance - The performance of major A-share indices from January to November 2023 is as follows: - Shanghai Composite Index: +16.02% - Shenzhen Component Index: +24.67% - ChiNext Index: +42.54% - CSI 300: +15.04% - CSI 500: +22.81% - CSI 1000: +23.10% - CSI 2000: +31.65% [3] Private Equity Performance - The overall performance of private equity products under billion-yuan private equity firms was impressive, with an average return of approximately 29.55% from January to November 2023 [3] - Among the 663 billion-yuan private equity products displayed on the platform, over 80% were equity strategy products, which yielded an average return of about 32.74%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index [4] Strategy Breakdown - Equity strategy products accounted for 535 products, with quantitative long products achieving an average return of over 44% [4] - Multi-asset strategy products totaled 64, yielding an average return of approximately 21.68% [4] - Bond strategy products numbered 36, while futures and derivatives strategy products accounted for 25, with average returns of 10.26% and 9.17% respectively [4] Top Performing Products - The top-performing quantitative long products included: - Longqi Technology's "Longqi Technology Innovation Selected No. 1 C Class" led with returns exceeding ***% [8] - Other notable products came from Stable Investment, Lingjun Investment, and others, with returns surpassing the set threshold [6][11] - In the subjective long category, the top product was "Yuanxin China Active Growth C Class" managed by Wang Aoye from Yuanxin Investment, with returns close to ***% [11] Multi-Asset Strategy Leaders - The leading products in the multi-asset strategy category included: - "Heiyi Preferred Growth No. 1 A Class" managed by Chen Zehao from Heiyi Asset, with returns exceeding ***% [18] - Other top products came from firms like Jiuzhi Investment and Yinye Investment [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of controlling drawdowns in investment, especially in the context of recent market fluctuations, highlighting that achieving low drawdowns alongside high returns is a challenging goal for investors [2]. A-share Market Performance - As of October 2025, the A-share market has experienced varying levels of drawdown, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing the smallest drawdown of nearly 10%, while the ChiNext Index faced a maximum drawdown of approximately 21% [2]. - The performance of major A-share indices from January to October 2025 is as follows: - Shanghai Composite Index: +17.99% with a maximum drawdown of 9.71% - Shenzhen Component Index: +28.46% with a maximum drawdown of 14.98% - ChiNext Index: +48.84% with a maximum drawdown of 20.79% [3]. Private Fund Performance - In the "quantitative long" category, 27 products ranked in the top 30% for both returns and drawdown control, with a total of 825 products analyzed [4]. - The top five performing products in the quantitative long category for the year are from Jiuming Investment, Shengguanda, Evolutionary Asset, Beijing Guanghua Private Equity, and Qianhai Xuhui Asset [4]. - In the "subjective long" category, 29 products ranked in the top 20% for returns and drawdown control, out of 2156 products analyzed [9]. - The top five performing products in the subjective long category are from Junzhou Private Equity, Liangli Private Equity, Shanghai Ruixin Investment, Meigang Capital, and Fengyu Investment [9]. CTA Strategy Performance - In the CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) category, 22 products ranked in the top 30% for returns and drawdown control, from a total of 557 products analyzed [13]. - The top five performing products in the CTA category are from Hangjingxinghe Asset, Yidao Asset, Zhixin Rongke, Fubeng Investment, and Alpha Private Equity [13]. Multi-Asset Strategy Performance - In the multi-asset strategy category, 29 products ranked in the top 20% for returns and drawdown control, from a total of 710 products analyzed [16]. - The top five performing products in the multi-asset category are from Guoyuan Xinda, Yiqiao Asset, Xiamen Zhendao Private Equity, Shanghai Congrong Investment, and Qianming Asset [16].

Core Insights - The A-share market is experiencing high volatility with a decline in the performance of technology growth stocks, leading to reduced profitability for individual stocks [1][2] - Quantitative long strategies are facing significant challenges, with performance divergence among leading institutions due to factor decay, rising costs, and stricter regulations [2][4] - The industry is evolving towards platformization, AI integration, and multi-strategy approaches to adapt to the increasingly complex market environment [1][7] Performance Challenges - The market has entered a phase of index volatility and stock differentiation, putting pressure on quantitative long strategies [2] - In October, quantitative long products achieved an average return of approximately 0.93% and an excess return of 1.5%, outperforming subjective long strategies [2] - Since the fourth quarter, there has been a noticeable divergence in excess returns among leading and mid-tier quantitative institutions [2][6] Strategy Adjustments - Some quantitative firms are shifting towards defensive strategies, focusing on risk management and reducing exposure to short-term market trends [3] - The challenges faced include declining factor effectiveness, rising trading costs, and the need for compliance with regulatory requirements [4] - Institutions are adopting multi-dimensional iterations to address these challenges, including improving algorithms and incorporating alternative data [4][5] Competitive Landscape - The quantitative industry is experiencing significant growth, with a nearly 90% increase in the number of private equity securities products registered this year, and quantitative products accounting for 44.30% of this growth [7] - The competition is shifting from single-point algorithm breakthroughs to comprehensive system engineering [7][8] - The application of AI and machine learning is becoming a standard practice in the industry, enhancing factor discovery and risk management [7][8] Future Outlook - The trend towards multi-strategy and multi-asset approaches is expected to continue, with a focus on improving capital efficiency and stabilizing net asset values [8] - There is an increasing concentration of resources towards leading institutions that demonstrate stable performance and robust product lines [8] - The industry consensus suggests that the framework and style of quantitative long strategies are now largely established, with future efforts focused on fine-tuning existing systems rather than radical changes [8]